Mithrandir Metrics
Valinor lane 2024-06-20 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
44
Matched
132
Lineups
0
HR BOARD 2024-06-20 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER armed; waiting on confirmed lineups
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research

Selective Lane

Valinor is available, but quiet today.

Valinor covers Home Run Market Gaps as a selective lane but didn't qualify any rows on today's slate. Try Palantir or check back tomorrow.

Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Lineups not posted

The in-lineup filter is armed, but no confirmed lineup artifact exists for this date yet. The board is showing the projected pool honestly.

Home-run board · largest Valinor gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01
Matt Wallner MIN
Lineup pending
MIN vs TBZack Littell · slot 2
 --Valinor 21.4%market +6.2pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.973xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 350 avg 3 books
02
José Ramírez CLE
Lineup pending
CLE vs SEALuis Castillo · slot 1
 --Valinor 19.4%market +5.6pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.976xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 395 avg 3 books
03
Josh Bell MIN
Lineup pending
MIN vs TBZack Littell · slot 4
 --Valinor 15.3%market +4.1pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.973xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 530 avg 3 books
04
James Wood WSH
Lineup pending
WSH vs AZRyne Nelson · slot 2
 --Valinor 17.3%market -0.1pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.052xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 460 avg 3 books
05
Corbin Carroll AZ
Lineup pending
AZ vs WSHMacKenzie Gore · slot 1
 --Valinor 18.1%market -0.2pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.052xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 435 avg 3 books
06
Luis García Jr. WSH
Lineup pending
WSH vs AZRyne Nelson · slot 4
 --Valinor 13.7%market -0.4pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.052xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 630 avg 3 books
07
Cj Abrams WSH
Lineup pending
WSH vs AZRyne Nelson · slot 1
 --Valinor 14.2%market -0.4pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.052xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 580 avg 3 books
08
Daylen Lile WSH
Lineup pending
WSH vs AZRyne Nelson · slot 3
 --Valinor 12.7%market -0.4pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.052xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 690 avg 3 books
09
Keibert Ruiz WSH
Lineup pending
WSH vs AZRyne Nelson · slot 5
 --Valinor 10.7%market -0.5pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.052xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 795 avg 3 books
10
Trevor Larnach MIN
Lineup pending
MIN vs TBZack Littell · slot 7
 --Valinor 13.8%market -0.7pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.973xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 625 avg 3 books
11
José Tena WSH
Lineup pending
WSH vs AZRyne Nelson · slot 6
 --Valinor 7.8%market -0.8pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.052xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1130 avg 3 books
12
Tyler Soderstrom ATH
Lineup pending
ATH vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 5
 --Valinor 15.7%market -1.0pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.000xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 515 avg 3 books
13
Lawrence Butler ATH
Lineup pending
ATH vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 4
 --Valinor 16.5%market -1.1pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.000xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 485 avg 3 books
14
Rob Refsnyder SEA
Lineup pending
SEA vs CLELogan Allen · slot 2
 --Valinor 14.8%market -1.1pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.976xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 555 avg 3 books
15
Randy Arozarena SEA
Lineup pending
SEA vs CLELogan Allen · slot 5
 --Valinor 14.6%market -1.1pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.976xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 560 avg 3 books
16
Dylan Crews WSH
Lineup pending
WSH vs AZRyne Nelson · slot 7
 --Valinor 12.4%market -1.2pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.052xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 705 avg 3 books
17
Daniel Schneemann CLE
Lineup pending
CLE vs SEALuis Castillo · slot 6
 --Valinor 12.0%market -1.2pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.976xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 700 avg 3 books
18
Angel Martínez CLE
Lineup pending
CLE vs SEALuis Castillo · slot 7
 --Valinor 9.5%market -1.2pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.976xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 915 avg 3 books
19
Kyle Manzardo CLE
Lineup pending
CLE vs SEALuis Castillo · slot 3
 --Valinor 19.3%market -1.4pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.976xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 400 avg 3 books
20
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. AZ
Lineup pending
AZ vs WSHMacKenzie Gore · slot 4
 --Valinor 15.2%market -1.4pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.052xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 535 avg 3 books
21
Bo Naylor CLE
Lineup pending
CLE vs SEALuis Castillo · slot 4
 --Valinor 15.2%market -1.4pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.976xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 535 avg 3 books
22
Julio Rodríguez SEA
Lineup pending
SEA vs CLELogan Allen · slot 1
 --Valinor 18.2%market -1.5pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.976xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 430 avg 3 books
23
Luke Keaschall MIN
Lineup pending
MIN vs TBZack Littell · slot 1
 --Valinor 12.2%market -1.5pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.973xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 690 avg 3 books
24
Nick Kurtz ATH
Lineup pending
ATH vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 1
 --Valinor 27.6%market -1.5pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.000xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 250 avg 3 books
25
Ryan Jeffers MIN
Lineup pending
MIN vs TBZack Littell · slot 6
 --Valinor 14.1%market -1.5pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.973xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 610 avg 3 books
26
Byron Buxton MIN
Lineup pending
MIN vs TBZack Littell · slot 3
 --Valinor 23.3%market -1.6pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.973xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 330 avg 3 books
27
Geraldo Perdomo AZ
Lineup pending
AZ vs WSHMacKenzie Gore · slot 3
 --Valinor 9.8%market -1.6pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.052xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 880 avg 3 books
28
Jacob Wilson ATH
Lineup pending
ATH vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 6
 --Valinor 9.9%market -1.7pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.000xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 870 avg 3 books
29
Royce Lewis MIN
Lineup pending
MIN vs TBZack Littell · slot 5
 --Valinor 17.9%market -1.7pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.973xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 440 avg 3 books
30
Austin Wynns ATH
Lineup pending
ATH vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 7
 --Valinor 12.3%market -1.8pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.000xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 715 avg 3 books
31
Cal Raleigh SEA
Lineup pending
SEA vs CLELogan Allen · slot 3
 --Valinor 26.5%market -1.8pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.976xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 265 avg 3 books
32
Steven Kwan CLE
Lineup pending
CLE vs SEALuis Castillo · slot 2
 --Valinor 8.9%market -1.8pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.976xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 975 avg 3 books
33
Brendan Donovan SEA
Lineup pending
SEA vs CLELogan Allen · slot 6
 --Valinor 10.3%market -1.8pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.976xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 835 avg 3 books
34
Josh Naylor SEA
Lineup pending
SEA vs CLELogan Allen · slot 4
 --Valinor 17.2%market -2.1pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.976xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 480 avg 3 books
35
Dominic Canzone SEA
Lineup pending
SEA vs CLELogan Allen · slot 7
 --Valinor 16.1%market -2.1pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.976xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 520 avg 3 books
36
Luke Raley SEA
Lineup pending
SEA vs CLELogan Allen · slot 8
 --Valinor 15.6%market -2.1pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.976xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 540 avg 3 books
37
Carlos Santana AZ
Lineup pending
AZ vs WSHMacKenzie Gore · slot 5
 --Valinor 14.9%market -2.1pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.052xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 570 avg 3 books
38
David Fry CLE
Lineup pending
CLE vs SEALuis Castillo · slot 5
 --Valinor 17.0%market -2.2pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.976xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
39
Shea Langeliers ATH
Lineup pending
ATH vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 3
 --Valinor 23.0%market -2.3pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.000xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 335 avg 3 books
40
Brent Rooker ATH
Lineup pending
ATH vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 2
 --Valinor 22.7%market -2.4pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.000xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 340 avg 3 books
41
Zack Gelof ATH
Lineup pending
ATH vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 9
 --Valinor 13.9%market -2.5pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.000xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 620 avg 3 books
42
Pavin Smith AZ
Lineup pending
AZ vs WSHMacKenzie Gore · slot 6
 --Valinor 14.8%market -2.6pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.052xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 575 avg 3 books
43
Adrian Del Castillo AZ
Lineup pending
AZ vs WSHMacKenzie Gore · slot 7
 --Valinor 14.5%market -2.6pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.052xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 590 avg 3 books
44
Ketel Marte AZ
Lineup pending
AZ vs WSHMacKenzie Gore · slot 2
 --Valinor 22.0%market -3.2pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.052xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 355 avg 3 books

Data context

0 sample flags
Status0roster/transaction rows
Lineups0confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.