Mithrandir Metrics
Valinor lane 2024-07-08 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
44
Matched
132
Lineups
0
HR BOARD 2024-07-08 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER armed; waiting on confirmed lineups
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research

Selective Lane

Valinor is available, but quiet today.

Valinor covers Home Run Market Gaps as a selective lane but didn't qualify any rows on today's slate. Try Palantir or check back tomorrow.

Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Lineups not posted

The in-lineup filter is armed, but no confirmed lineup artifact exists for this date yet. The board is showing the projected pool honestly.

Home-run board · largest Valinor gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01
Juan Soto NYM
Lineup pending
NYM vs PITMitch Keller · slot 1
 --Valinor 23.2%market +6.5pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.976xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 315 avg 3 books
02
Riley Greene DET
Lineup pending
DET vs CLEGavin Williams · slot 4
 --Valinor 18.0%market +5.0pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.008xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 435 avg 3 books
03
Jj Bleday CIN
Lineup pending
CIN vs COLRyan Feltner · slot 6
 --Valinor 14.1%market +3.6pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.078xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 580 avg 3 books
04
Jorge Polanco NYM
Lineup pending
NYM vs PITMitch Keller · slot 4
 --Valinor 17.3%market +2.5pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.976xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 455 avg 3 books
05
Corbin Carroll AZ
Lineup pending
AZ vs ATLBryce Elder · slot 1
 --Valinor 17.6%market +1.9pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.000xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 445 avg 3 books
06
Hunter Goodman COL
Lineup pending
COL vs CINAndrew Abbott · slot 2
 --Valinor 20.4%market +1.1pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.078xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 370 avg 3 books
07
Luis Robert Jr. NYM
Lineup pending
NYM vs PITMitch Keller · slot 9
 --Valinor 15.3%market +0.4pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.976xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 530 avg 3 books
08
James Wood WSH
Lineup pending
WSH vs STLMiles Mikolas · slot 2
 --Valinor 17.0%market +0.2pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.037xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 465 avg 3 books
09
Brenton Doyle COL
Lineup pending
COL vs CINAndrew Abbott · slot 5
 --Valinor 13.3%market +0.1pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.078xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 625 avg 3 books
10
Ezequiel Tovar COL
Lineup pending
COL vs CINAndrew Abbott · slot 4
 --Valinor 13.3%market +0.0pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.078xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 625 avg 3 books
11
Jordan Beck COL
Lineup pending
COL vs CINAndrew Abbott · slot 7
 --Valinor 11.0%market -0.1pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.078xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 770 avg 3 books
12
Willi Castro COL
Lineup pending
COL vs CINAndrew Abbott · slot 1
 --Valinor 10.9%market -0.2pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.078xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 780 avg 3 books
13
Luis García Jr. WSH
Lineup pending
WSH vs STLMiles Mikolas · slot 4
 --Valinor 13.7%market -0.2pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.037xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 630 avg 3 books
14
Cj Abrams WSH
Lineup pending
WSH vs STLMiles Mikolas · slot 1
 --Valinor 14.2%market -0.2pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.037xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 580 avg 3 books
15
Daylen Lile WSH
Lineup pending
WSH vs STLMiles Mikolas · slot 3
 --Valinor 12.7%market -0.3pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.037xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 690 avg 3 books
16
Elly De La Cruz CIN
Lineup pending
CIN vs COLRyan Feltner · slot 1
 --Valinor 15.3%market -0.3pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.078xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 530 avg 3 books
17
Keibert Ruiz WSH
Lineup pending
WSH vs STLMiles Mikolas · slot 5
 --Valinor 10.7%market -0.4pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.037xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 795 avg 3 books
18
Tj Friedl CIN
Lineup pending
CIN vs COLRyan Feltner · slot 2
 --Valinor 13.3%market -0.5pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.078xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 625 avg 3 books
19
Will Benson CIN
Lineup pending
CIN vs COLRyan Feltner · slot 7
 --Valinor 15.3%market -0.5pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.078xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 530 avg 3 books
20
Mickey Moniak COL
Lineup pending
COL vs CINAndrew Abbott · slot 3
 --Valinor 18.6%market -0.6pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.078xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 420 avg 3 books
21
José Tena WSH
Lineup pending
WSH vs STLMiles Mikolas · slot 6
 --Valinor 7.8%market -0.7pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.037xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1130 avg 3 books
22
Geraldo Perdomo AZ
Lineup pending
AZ vs ATLBryce Elder · slot 3
 --Valinor 9.8%market -0.9pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.000xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 880 avg 3 books
23
Pavin Smith AZ
Lineup pending
AZ vs ATLBryce Elder · slot 6
 --Valinor 14.3%market -0.9pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.000xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 575 avg 3 books
24
Edouard Julien COL
Lineup pending
COL vs CINAndrew Abbott · slot 6
 --Valinor 12.2%market -0.9pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.078xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 685 avg 3 books
25
Adrian Del Castillo AZ
Lineup pending
AZ vs ATLBryce Elder · slot 7
 --Valinor 14.0%market -1.0pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.000xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 590 avg 3 books
26
Dylan Crews WSH
Lineup pending
WSH vs STLMiles Mikolas · slot 7
 --Valinor 12.4%market -1.0pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.037xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 705 avg 3 books
27
Colt Keith DET
Lineup pending
DET vs CLEGavin Williams · slot 6
 --Valinor 11.2%market -1.1pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.008xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 755 avg 3 books
28
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. AZ
Lineup pending
AZ vs ATLBryce Elder · slot 4
 --Valinor 15.2%market -1.1pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.000xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 535 avg 3 books
29
Carlos Santana AZ
Lineup pending
AZ vs ATLBryce Elder · slot 5
 --Valinor 14.4%market -1.1pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.000xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 570 avg 3 books
30
Zach McKinstry DET
Lineup pending
DET vs CLEGavin Williams · slot 1
 --Valinor 10.0%market -1.3pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.008xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 865 avg 3 books
31
Spencer Steer CIN
Lineup pending
CIN vs COLRyan Feltner · slot 4
 --Valinor 14.6%market -1.4pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.078xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 560 avg 3 books
32
Tyler Stephenson CIN
Lineup pending
CIN vs COLRyan Feltner · slot 5
 --Valinor 14.5%market -1.4pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.078xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 565 avg 3 books
33
Kerry Carpenter DET
Lineup pending
DET vs CLEGavin Williams · slot 3
 --Valinor 21.5%market -1.5pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.008xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 350 avg 3 books
34
Brett Baty NYM
Lineup pending
NYM vs PITMitch Keller · slot 8
 --Valinor 13.5%market -1.6pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.976xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 615 avg 3 books
35
Eugenio Suárez CIN
Lineup pending
CIN vs COLRyan Feltner · slot 3
 --Valinor 22.2%market -1.8pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.078xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 335 avg 3 books
36
Dillon Dingler DET
Lineup pending
DET vs CLEGavin Williams · slot 7
 --Valinor 11.9%market -1.8pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.008xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 740 avg 3 books
37
Jahmai Jones DET
Lineup pending
DET vs CLEGavin Williams · slot 2
 --Valinor 17.4%market -2.1pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.008xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 475 avg 3 books
38
Bo Bichette NYM
Lineup pending
NYM vs PITMitch Keller · slot 3
 --Valinor 13.0%market -2.1pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.976xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 670 avg 3 books
39
Mark Vientos NYM
Lineup pending
NYM vs PITMitch Keller · slot 6
 --Valinor 18.2%market -2.1pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.976xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 450 avg 3 books
40
Spencer Torkelson DET
Lineup pending
DET vs CLEGavin Williams · slot 5
 --Valinor 18.0%market -2.3pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.008xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 455 avg 3 books
41
Marcus Semien NYM
Lineup pending
NYM vs PITMitch Keller · slot 5
 --Valinor 14.4%market -2.4pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.976xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 595 avg 3 books
42
Ketel Marte AZ
Lineup pending
AZ vs ATLBryce Elder · slot 2
 --Valinor 22.0%market -2.4pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.000xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 355 avg 3 books
43
Francisco Alvarez NYM
Lineup pending
NYM vs PITMitch Keller · slot 7
 --Valinor 17.2%market -2.6pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.976xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 480 avg 3 books
44
Francisco Lindor NYM
Lineup pending
NYM vs PITMitch Keller · slot 2
 --Valinor 19.6%market -2.6pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.976xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 410 avg 3 books

Data context

0 sample flags
Status0roster/transaction rows
Lineups0confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.