Mithrandir Metrics

HR BOARD 2024-07-23 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER armed; waiting on confirmed lineups

Lane Health 2026-09-01

Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable

Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable

Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research

Selective Lane

Valinor is available, but quiet today.

Valinor covers Home Run Market Gaps as a selective lane but didn't qualify any rows on today's slate. Try Palantir or check back tomorrow.

Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.

Lineups not posted

The in-lineup filter is armed, but no confirmed lineup artifact exists for this date yet. The board is showing the projected pool honestly.

Home-run board · largest Valinor gap versus market

#	Player	Matchup	Sim	Implied	Gap	Three lanes · P/F/V	Spread	Park	Weather	Recent	Best line
01	Yordan Alvarez HOU Lineup pending	HOU vs OAKOsvaldo Bido · slot 2	--Valinor	20.9%market	+5.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.000xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 360 avg 3 books
02	Ronald Acuña Jr. ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs CINNick Martinez · slot 1	--Valinor	20.0%market	+5.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.013xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 380 avg 3 books
03	Jazz Chisholm Jr. NYY Lineup pending	NYY vs NYMJose Quintana · slot 5	--Valinor	18.8%market	+5.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.046xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 410 avg 3 books
04	Matt Wallner MIN Lineup pending	MIN vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 2	--Valinor	21.4%market	+5.0pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.934xHR pf	Pitcher-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 350 avg 3 books
05	Gary Sánchez MIL Lineup pending	MIL vs CHCJameson Taillon · slot 6	--Valinor	16.7%market	+4.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.048xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 475 avg 3 books
06	Austin Riley ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs CINNick Martinez · slot 4	--Valinor	17.2%market	+4.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.013xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 460 avg 3 books
07	Giancarlo Stanton NYY Lineup pending	NYY vs NYMJose Quintana · slot 4	--Valinor	24.3%market	+4.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.046xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 295 avg 3 books
08	Aaron Judge NYY Lineup pending	NYY vs NYMJose Quintana · slot 2	--Valinor	29.6%market	+3.5pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.046xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 225 avg 3 books
09	Ozzie Albies ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs CINNick Martinez · slot 5	--Valinor	13.5%market	+3.5pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.013xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 610 avg 3 books
10	Josh Bell MIN Lineup pending	MIN vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 4	--Valinor	15.3%market	+3.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.934xHR pf	Pitcher-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 530 avg 3 books
11	Jj Bleday CIN Lineup pending	CIN vs ATLChris Sale · slot 6	--Valinor	14.1%market	+2.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.013xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 580 avg 3 books
12	Carlos Correa HOU Lineup pending	HOU vs OAKOsvaldo Bido · slot 6	--Valinor	11.9%market	+2.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.000xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 710 avg 3 books
13	Michael Harris II ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs CINNick Martinez · slot 8	--Valinor	13.0%market	+2.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.013xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 640 avg 3 books
14	Yainer Diaz HOU Lineup pending	HOU vs OAKOsvaldo Bido · slot 7	--Valinor	14.3%market	+1.5pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.000xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 570 avg 3 books
15	Christian Yelich MIL Lineup pending	MIL vs CHCJameson Taillon · slot 2	--Valinor	16.9%market	+1.5pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.048xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 470 avg 3 books
16	Michael Busch CHC Lineup pending	CHC vs MILColin Rea · slot 3	--Valinor	19.2%market	+1.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.048xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 400 avg 3 books
17	Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC Lineup pending	CHC vs MILColin Rea · slot 9	--Valinor	14.6%market	+0.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.048xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 560 avg 3 books
18	Ian Happ CHC Lineup pending	CHC vs MILColin Rea · slot 4	--Valinor	14.9%market	+0.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.048xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 545 avg 3 books
19	Jake Bauers MIL Lineup pending	MIL vs CHCJameson Taillon · slot 7	--Valinor	14.5%market	+0.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.048xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 565 avg 3 books
20	Dansby Swanson CHC Lineup pending	CHC vs MILColin Rea · slot 6	--Valinor	13.7%market	+0.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.048xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 600 avg 3 books
21	Andrew Vaughn MIL Lineup pending	MIL vs CHCJameson Taillon · slot 5	--Valinor	13.6%market	+0.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.048xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 605 avg 3 books
22	Brice Turang MIL Lineup pending	MIL vs CHCJameson Taillon · slot 1	--Valinor	10.4%market	-0.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.048xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 825 avg 3 books
23	William Contreras MIL Lineup pending	MIL vs CHCJameson Taillon · slot 3	--Valinor	13.1%market	-0.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.048xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 635 avg 3 books
24	James Wood WSH Lineup pending	WSH vs SDRandy Vásquez · slot 2	--Valinor	17.3%market	-0.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.048xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 460 avg 3 books
25	Carson Kelly CHC Lineup pending	CHC vs MILColin Rea · slot 7	--Valinor	13.2%market	-0.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.048xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 630 avg 3 books
26	Luis García Jr. WSH Lineup pending	WSH vs SDRandy Vásquez · slot 4	--Valinor	13.7%market	-0.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.048xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 630 avg 3 books
27	Jonathan Aranda TB Lineup pending	TB vs TORJosé Berríos · slot 3	--Valinor	14.5%market	-0.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.002xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 565 avg 3 books
28	Cj Abrams WSH Lineup pending	WSH vs SDRandy Vásquez · slot 1	--Valinor	14.2%market	-0.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.048xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 580 avg 3 books
29	Jackson Chourio MIL Lineup pending	MIL vs CHCJameson Taillon · slot 4	--Valinor	15.6%market	-0.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.048xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 520 avg 3 books
30	Cedric Mullins TB Lineup pending	TB vs TORJosé Berríos · slot 5	--Valinor	15.1%market	-0.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.002xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 540 avg 3 books
31	Jake Fraley TB Lineup pending	TB vs TORJosé Berríos · slot 6	--Valinor	12.7%market	-0.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.002xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 660 avg 3 books
32	Daylen Lile WSH Lineup pending	WSH vs SDRandy Vásquez · slot 3	--Valinor	12.7%market	-0.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.048xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 690 avg 3 books
33	Keibert Ruiz WSH Lineup pending	WSH vs SDRandy Vásquez · slot 5	--Valinor	10.7%market	-0.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.048xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 795 avg 3 books
34	Alex Bregman CHC Lineup pending	CHC vs MILColin Rea · slot 5	--Valinor	15.5%market	-0.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.048xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 525 avg 3 books
35	Drake Baldwin ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs CINNick Martinez · slot 3	--Valinor	17.6%market	-0.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.013xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 450 avg 3 books
36	Mike Yastrzemski ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs CINNick Martinez · slot 6	--Valinor	14.6%market	-0.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.013xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 560 avg 3 books
37	José Caballero NYY Lineup pending	NYY vs NYMJose Quintana · slot 1	--Valinor	9.1%market	-0.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.046xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 960 avg 3 books
38	José Tena WSH Lineup pending	WSH vs SDRandy Vásquez · slot 6	--Valinor	7.8%market	-0.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.048xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 1130 avg 3 books
39	Trevor Larnach MIN Lineup pending	MIN vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 7	--Valinor	13.8%market	-1.0pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.934xHR pf	Pitcher-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 625 avg 3 books
40	Seiya Suzuki CHC Lineup pending	CHC vs MILColin Rea · slot 2	--Valinor	18.1%market	-1.0pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.048xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 435 avg 3 books
41	Jose Altuve HOU Lineup pending	HOU vs OAKOsvaldo Bido · slot 3	--Valinor	16.0%market	-1.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.000xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 505 avg 3 books
42	Gavin Lux TB Lineup pending	TB vs TORJosé Berríos · slot 7	--Valinor	7.7%market	-1.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.002xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
43	Christian Walker HOU Lineup pending	HOU vs OAKOsvaldo Bido · slot 4	--Valinor	18.6%market	-1.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.000xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 420 avg 3 books
44	Jeremy Peña HOU Lineup pending	HOU vs OAKOsvaldo Bido · slot 1	--Valinor	12.2%market	-1.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.000xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 720 avg 3 books
45	Dylan Crews WSH Lineup pending	WSH vs SDRandy Vásquez · slot 7	--Valinor	12.4%market	-1.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.048xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 705 avg 3 books
46	Nico Hoerner CHC Lineup pending	CHC vs MILColin Rea · slot 1	--Valinor	7.7%market	-1.5pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.048xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
47	Yoán Moncada LAA Lineup pending	LAA vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 6	--Valinor	14.5%market	-1.5pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.899xHR pf	Pitcher-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 565 avg 3 books
48	Ben Rice NYY Lineup pending	NYY vs NYMJose Quintana · slot 6	--Valinor	17.7%market	-1.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.046xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 445 avg 3 books
49	Elly De La Cruz CIN Lineup pending	CIN vs ATLChris Sale · slot 1	--Valinor	15.3%market	-1.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.013xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 530 avg 3 books
50	Yandy Díaz TB Lineup pending	TB vs TORJosé Berríos · slot 2	--Valinor	15.1%market	-1.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.002xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 540 avg 3 books
51	Trent Grisham NYY Lineup pending	NYY vs NYMJose Quintana · slot 7	--Valinor	17.3%market	-1.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.046xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 460 avg 3 books
52	Matt Olson ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs CINNick Martinez · slot 2	--Valinor	21.2%market	-1.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.013xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 355 avg 3 books
53	Luke Keaschall MIN Lineup pending	MIN vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 1	--Valinor	12.2%market	-1.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.934xHR pf	Pitcher-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 690 avg 3 books
54	Cody Bellinger NYY Lineup pending	NYY vs NYMJose Quintana · slot 3	--Valinor	17.4%market	-1.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.046xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 455 avg 3 books
55	Sean Murphy ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs CINNick Martinez · slot 7	--Valinor	16.7%market	-1.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.013xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 480 avg 3 books
56	Junior Caminero TB Lineup pending	TB vs TORJosé Berríos · slot 4	--Valinor	24.7%market	-1.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.002xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 305 avg 3 books
57	Ryan Jeffers MIN Lineup pending	MIN vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 6	--Valinor	14.1%market	-1.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.934xHR pf	Pitcher-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 610 avg 3 books
58	Spencer Steer CIN Lineup pending	CIN vs ATLChris Sale · slot 4	--Valinor	15.2%market	-1.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.013xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 560 avg 3 books
59	Tyler Stephenson CIN Lineup pending	CIN vs ATLChris Sale · slot 5	--Valinor	15.0%market	-1.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.013xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 565 avg 3 books
60	Royce Lewis MIN Lineup pending	MIN vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 5	--Valinor	18.4%market	-1.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.934xHR pf	Pitcher-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
61	Isaac Paredes HOU Lineup pending	HOU vs OAKOsvaldo Bido · slot 5	--Valinor	17.2%market	-1.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.000xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 480 avg 3 books
62	Byron Buxton MIN Lineup pending	MIN vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 3	--Valinor	23.3%market	-2.0pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.934xHR pf	Pitcher-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 330 avg 3 books
63	Nolan Schanuel LAA Lineup pending	LAA vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 7	--Valinor	9.6%market	-2.0pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.899xHR pf	Pitcher-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 945 avg 3 books
64	Eugenio Suárez CIN Lineup pending	CIN vs ATLChris Sale · slot 3	--Valinor	22.7%market	-2.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.013xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 340 avg 3 books
65	Tj Friedl CIN Lineup pending	CIN vs ATLChris Sale · slot 2	--Valinor	13.8%market	-2.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.013xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 625 avg 3 books
66	Zach Neto LAA Lineup pending	LAA vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 1	--Valinor	18.5%market	-2.5pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.899xHR pf	Pitcher-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 440 avg 3 books
67	Will Benson CIN Lineup pending	CIN vs ATLChris Sale · slot 7	--Valinor	15.9%market	-2.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.013xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 530 avg 3 books
68	Travis D'Arnaud LAA Lineup pending	LAA vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 8	--Valinor	14.6%market	-3.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.899xHR pf	Pitcher-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 585 avg 3 books
69	Logan O'Hoppe LAA Lineup pending	LAA vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 5	--Valinor	18.5%market	-3.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.899xHR pf	Pitcher-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 440 avg 3 books
70	Mike Trout LAA Lineup pending	LAA vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 2	--Valinor	21.3%market	-4.0pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.899xHR pf	Pitcher-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 370 avg 3 books
71	Jorge Soler LAA Lineup pending	LAA vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 3	--Valinor	19.2%market	-4.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.899xHR pf	Pitcher-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
72	Jo Adell LAA Lineup pending	LAA vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 4	--Valinor	22.7%market	-4.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.899xHR pf	Pitcher-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 340 avg 3 books
73	Chandler Simpson TB Lineup pending	TB vs TORJosé Berríos · slot 1	--Valinor	8.0%market	-4.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.002xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books

Top saved signals

5 value rows

01 Yordan AlvarezHOU vs OAK · FanDuel

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp 02 Matt WallnerMIN vs PHI · FanDuel

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp 03 Giancarlo StantonNYY vs NYM · FanDuel

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp 04 Aaron JudgeNYY vs NYM · FanDuel

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp 05 Ronald Acuña Jr.ATL vs CIN · FanDuel

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp

Data context

0 sample flags

Status0roster/transaction rows

Lineups0confirmed starters

Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.