Mithrandir Metrics

HR BOARD 2024-07-25 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER armed; waiting on confirmed lineups

Lane Health 2026-09-01

Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable

Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable

Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research

Selective Lane

Valinor is available, but quiet today.

Valinor covers Home Run Market Gaps as a selective lane but didn't qualify any rows on today's slate. Try Palantir or check back tomorrow.

Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.

Lineups not posted

The in-lineup filter is armed, but no confirmed lineup artifact exists for this date yet. The board is showing the projected pool honestly.

Home-run board · largest Valinor gap versus market

#	Player	Matchup	Sim	Implied	Gap	Three lanes · P/F/V	Spread	Park	Weather	Recent	Best line
01	Ronald Acuña Jr. ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs NYMLuis Severino · slot 1	--Valinor	20.0%market	+4.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.967xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 380 avg 3 books
02	Fernando Tatis Jr. SD Lineup pending	SD vs WSHPatrick Corbin · slot 1	--Valinor	17.2%market	+4.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.052xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 460 avg 3 books
03	Riley Greene DET Lineup pending	DET vs CLEGavin Williams · slot 4	--Valinor	18.0%market	+4.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.934xHR pf	Pitcher-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 435 avg 3 books
04	Anthony Santander TOR Lineup pending	TOR vs TBTaj Bradley · slot 3	--Valinor	20.1%market	+4.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.010xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 380 avg 3 books
05	Juan Soto NYM Lineup pending	NYM vs ATLChris Sale · slot 1	--Valinor	23.2%market	+4.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.967xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 315 avg 3 books
06	Austin Riley ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs NYMLuis Severino · slot 4	--Valinor	17.2%market	+4.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.967xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 460 avg 3 books
07	Ramón Laureano SD Lineup pending	SD vs WSHPatrick Corbin · slot 5	--Valinor	16.0%market	+3.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.052xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 500 avg 3 books
08	Ozzie Albies ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs NYMLuis Severino · slot 5	--Valinor	13.5%market	+3.5pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.967xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 610 avg 3 books
09	Jesús Sánchez TOR Lineup pending	TOR vs TBTaj Bradley · slot 5	--Valinor	13.5%market	+3.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.010xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 615 avg 3 books
10	Freddie Freeman LAD Lineup pending	LAD vs SFLogan Webb · slot 2	--Valinor	16.3%market	+2.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.994xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 490 avg 3 books
11	Colson Montgomery CWS Lineup pending	CWS vs TEXMax Scherzer · slot 3	--Valinor	24.1%market	+2.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.030xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 300 avg 3 books
12	Rafael Devers SF Lineup pending	SF vs LADClayton Kershaw · slot 2	--Valinor	20.0%market	+1.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.994xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 380 avg 3 books
13	Michael Harris II ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs NYMLuis Severino · slot 8	--Valinor	13.0%market	+1.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.967xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 640 avg 3 books
14	Jorge Polanco NYM Lineup pending	NYM vs ATLChris Sale · slot 4	--Valinor	17.3%market	+1.5pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.967xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 455 avg 3 books
15	Manny Machado SD Lineup pending	SD vs WSHPatrick Corbin · slot 2	--Valinor	18.7%market	+1.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.052xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 415 avg 3 books
16	Daulton Varsho TOR Lineup pending	TOR vs TBTaj Bradley · slot 4	--Valinor	18.1%market	+0.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.010xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 430 avg 3 books
17	Mookie Betts LAD Lineup pending	LAD vs SFLogan Webb · slot 5	--Valinor	16.0%market	+0.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.994xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 500 avg 3 books
18	Kyle Teel CWS Lineup pending	CWS vs TEXMax Scherzer · slot 2	--Valinor	13.5%market	+0.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.030xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 615 avg 3 books
19	Luis Robert Jr. NYM Lineup pending	NYM vs ATLChris Sale · slot 9	--Valinor	15.3%market	+0.5pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.967xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 530 avg 3 books
20	Andrew Benintendi CWS Lineup pending	CWS vs TEXMax Scherzer · slot 4	--Valinor	13.6%market	+0.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.030xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 605 avg 3 books
21	Edgar Quero CWS Lineup pending	CWS vs TEXMax Scherzer · slot 6	--Valinor	7.8%market	-0.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.030xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 1125 avg 3 books
22	Lenyn Sosa CWS Lineup pending	CWS vs TEXMax Scherzer · slot 7	--Valinor	14.0%market	-0.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.030xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 590 avg 3 books
23	Miguel Andujar SD Lineup pending	SD vs WSHPatrick Corbin · slot 6	--Valinor	10.3%market	-0.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.052xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 830 avg 3 books
24	Nick Castellanos SD Lineup pending	SD vs WSHPatrick Corbin · slot 4	--Valinor	15.1%market	-0.5pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.052xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 540 avg 3 books
25	Austin Hays CWS Lineup pending	CWS vs TEXMax Scherzer · slot 5	--Valinor	12.8%market	-0.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.030xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 650 avg 3 books
26	Nathan Lukes TOR Lineup pending	TOR vs TBTaj Bradley · slot 6	--Valinor	10.4%market	-0.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.010xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 825 avg 3 books
27	Chase Meidroth CWS Lineup pending	CWS vs TEXMax Scherzer · slot 1	--Valinor	7.7%market	-0.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.030xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
28	Jackson Merrill SD Lineup pending	SD vs WSHPatrick Corbin · slot 3	--Valinor	16.2%market	-0.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.052xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 495 avg 3 books
29	Jake Fraley TB Lineup pending	TB vs TORChris Bassitt · slot 6	--Valinor	12.7%market	-1.0pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.010xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 660 avg 3 books
30	Jonathan Aranda TB Lineup pending	TB vs TORChris Bassitt · slot 3	--Valinor	14.5%market	-1.0pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.010xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 565 avg 3 books
31	Cedric Mullins TB Lineup pending	TB vs TORChris Bassitt · slot 5	--Valinor	15.1%market	-1.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.010xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 540 avg 3 books
32	Jake Cronenworth SD Lineup pending	SD vs WSHPatrick Corbin · slot 7	--Valinor	10.1%market	-1.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.052xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 850 avg 3 books
33	Davis Schneider TOR Lineup pending	TOR vs TBTaj Bradley · slot 7	--Valinor	15.6%market	-1.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.010xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 520 avg 3 books
34	Gavin Lux TB Lineup pending	TB vs TORChris Bassitt · slot 7	--Valinor	7.7%market	-1.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.010xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
35	Mike Yastrzemski ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs NYMLuis Severino · slot 6	--Valinor	14.6%market	-1.5pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.967xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 560 avg 3 books
36	Tyler Fitzgerald SF Lineup pending	SF vs LADClayton Kershaw · slot 6	--Valinor	13.1%market	-1.5pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.994xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 635 avg 3 books
37	George Springer TOR Lineup pending	TOR vs TBTaj Bradley · slot 1	--Valinor	18.2%market	-1.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.010xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 430 avg 3 books
38	Jakob Marsee MIA Lineup pending	MIA vs BALCorbin Burnes · slot 2	--Valinor	11.8%market	-1.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.970xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 750 avg 3 books
39	Christopher Morel MIA Lineup pending	MIA vs BALCorbin Burnes · slot 5	--Valinor	17.2%market	-1.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.970xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 460 avg 3 books
40	Drake Baldwin ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs NYMLuis Severino · slot 3	--Valinor	17.6%market	-1.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.967xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 450 avg 3 books
41	Heliot Ramos SF Lineup pending	SF vs LADClayton Kershaw · slot 5	--Valinor	14.5%market	-1.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.994xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 565 avg 3 books
42	Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR Lineup pending	TOR vs TBTaj Bradley · slot 2	--Valinor	17.1%market	-1.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.010xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 465 avg 3 books
43	Kyle Stowers MIA Lineup pending	MIA vs BALCorbin Burnes · slot 3	--Valinor	18.4%market	-1.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.970xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
44	Matt Chapman SF Lineup pending	SF vs LADClayton Kershaw · slot 3	--Valinor	17.0%market	-1.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.994xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
45	Colt Keith DET Lineup pending	DET vs CLEGavin Williams · slot 6	--Valinor	11.2%market	-1.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.934xHR pf	Pitcher-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 755 avg 3 books
46	Willy Adames SF Lineup pending	SF vs LADClayton Kershaw · slot 4	--Valinor	18.4%market	-1.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.994xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
47	Zach McKinstry DET Lineup pending	DET vs CLEGavin Williams · slot 1	--Valinor	10.0%market	-1.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.934xHR pf	Pitcher-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 865 avg 3 books
48	José Tena WSH Lineup pending	WSH vs SDDylan Cease · slot 6	--Valinor	8.0%market	-1.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.052xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 1145 avg 3 books
49	Jung Hoo Lee SF Lineup pending	SF vs LADClayton Kershaw · slot 7	--Valinor	7.7%market	-2.0pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.994xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
50	Mark Vientos NYM Lineup pending	NYM vs ATLChris Sale · slot 6	--Valinor	18.2%market	-2.0pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.967xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 450 avg 3 books
51	Bo Bichette NYM Lineup pending	NYM vs ATLChris Sale · slot 3	--Valinor	13.0%market	-2.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.967xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 670 avg 3 books
52	Yandy Díaz TB Lineup pending	TB vs TORChris Bassitt · slot 2	--Valinor	15.6%market	-2.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.010xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 540 avg 3 books
53	Shohei Ohtani LAD Lineup pending	LAD vs SFLogan Webb · slot 1	--Valinor	30.3%market	-2.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.994xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 230 avg 3 books
54	Matt Olson ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs NYMLuis Severino · slot 2	--Valinor	21.7%market	-2.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.967xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 360 avg 3 books
55	Keibert Ruiz WSH Lineup pending	WSH vs SDDylan Cease · slot 5	--Valinor	11.2%market	-2.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.052xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 795 avg 3 books
56	Marcus Semien NYM Lineup pending	NYM vs ATLChris Sale · slot 5	--Valinor	14.4%market	-2.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.967xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 595 avg 3 books
57	Heriberto Hernández MIA Lineup pending	MIA vs BALCorbin Burnes · slot 6	--Valinor	14.1%market	-2.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.970xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 610 avg 3 books
58	Connor Norby MIA Lineup pending	MIA vs BALCorbin Burnes · slot 7	--Valinor	13.8%market	-2.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.970xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 625 avg 3 books
59	Sean Murphy ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs NYMLuis Severino · slot 7	--Valinor	17.1%market	-2.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.967xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 485 avg 3 books
60	Junior Caminero TB Lineup pending	TB vs TORChris Bassitt · slot 4	--Valinor	24.7%market	-2.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.010xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 305 avg 3 books
61	Daylen Lile WSH Lineup pending	WSH vs SDDylan Cease · slot 3	--Valinor	12.7%market	-2.5pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.052xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 690 avg 3 books
62	Dillon Dingler DET Lineup pending	DET vs CLEGavin Williams · slot 7	--Valinor	11.9%market	-2.5pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.934xHR pf	Pitcher-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 740 avg 3 books
63	Francisco Alvarez NYM Lineup pending	NYM vs ATLChris Sale · slot 7	--Valinor	17.2%market	-2.5pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.967xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 480 avg 3 books
64	Agustín Ramírez MIA Lineup pending	MIA vs BALCorbin Burnes · slot 4	--Valinor	15.8%market	-2.5pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.970xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 535 avg 3 books
65	Luis García Jr. WSH Lineup pending	WSH vs SDDylan Cease · slot 4	--Valinor	13.7%market	-2.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.052xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 630 avg 3 books
66	Kerry Carpenter DET Lineup pending	DET vs CLEGavin Williams · slot 3	--Valinor	22.0%market	-2.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.934xHR pf	Pitcher-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 355 avg 3 books
67	Cj Abrams WSH Lineup pending	WSH vs SDDylan Cease · slot 1	--Valinor	14.7%market	-2.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.052xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 580 avg 3 books
68	Luis Arraez SF Lineup pending	SF vs LADClayton Kershaw · slot 1	--Valinor	8.0%market	-2.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.994xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
69	Will Smith LAD Lineup pending	LAD vs SFLogan Webb · slot 9	--Valinor	14.6%market	-2.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.994xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 585 avg 3 books
70	Brett Baty NYM Lineup pending	NYM vs ATLChris Sale · slot 8	--Valinor	14.0%market	-3.0pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.967xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 615 avg 3 books
71	James Wood WSH Lineup pending	WSH vs SDDylan Cease · slot 2	--Valinor	17.9%market	-3.0pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.052xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 460 avg 3 books
72	Dylan Crews WSH Lineup pending	WSH vs SDDylan Cease · slot 7	--Valinor	12.4%market	-3.0pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.052xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 705 avg 3 books
73	Jahmai Jones DET Lineup pending	DET vs CLEGavin Williams · slot 2	--Valinor	17.4%market	-3.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.934xHR pf	Pitcher-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 475 avg 3 books
74	Spencer Torkelson DET Lineup pending	DET vs CLEGavin Williams · slot 5	--Valinor	18.0%market	-3.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.934xHR pf	Pitcher-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 455 avg 3 books
75	Francisco Lindor NYM Lineup pending	NYM vs ATLChris Sale · slot 2	--Valinor	19.6%market	-3.5pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.967xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 410 avg 3 books
76	Andy Pages LAD Lineup pending	LAD vs SFLogan Webb · slot 7	--Valinor	14.9%market	-3.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.994xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 570 avg 3 books
77	Max Muncy LAD Lineup pending	LAD vs SFLogan Webb · slot 6	--Valinor	20.8%market	-4.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.994xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 380 avg 3 books
78	Kyle Tucker LAD Lineup pending	LAD vs SFLogan Webb · slot 3	--Valinor	19.6%market	-4.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.994xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 410 avg 3 books
79	Xavier Edwards MIA Lineup pending	MIA vs BALCorbin Burnes · slot 1	--Valinor	8.0%market	-4.5pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.970xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
80	Teoscar Hernández LAD Lineup pending	LAD vs SFLogan Webb · slot 4	--Valinor	19.2%market	-4.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.994xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
81	Chandler Simpson TB Lineup pending	TB vs TORChris Bassitt · slot 1	--Valinor	8.0%market	-4.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.010xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books

Top saved signals

5 value rows

01 Juan SotoNYM vs ATL · FanDuel

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp 02 Ronald Acuña Jr.ATL vs NYM · FanDuel

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp 03 Anthony SantanderTOR vs TB · FanDuel

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp 04 Riley GreeneDET vs CLE · FanDuel

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp 05 Fernando Tatis Jr.SD vs WSH · FanDuel

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp

Data context

0 sample flags

Status0roster/transaction rows

Lineups0confirmed starters

Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.