Mithrandir Metrics

HR BOARD 2024-07-29 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER armed; waiting on confirmed lineups

Lane Health 2026-09-02

Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable

Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable

Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research

Selective Lane

Valinor is available, but quiet today.

Valinor covers Home Run Market Gaps as a selective lane but didn't qualify any rows on today's slate. Try Palantir or check back tomorrow.

Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.

Lineups not posted

The in-lineup filter is armed, but no confirmed lineup artifact exists for this date yet. The board is showing the projected pool honestly.

Home-run board · largest Valinor gap versus market

#	Player	Matchup	Sim	Implied	Gap	Three lanes · P/F/V	Spread	Park	Weather	Recent	Best line
01	Matt Wallner MIN Lineup pending	MIN vs NYMJose Quintana · slot 2	--Valinor	21.4%market	+5.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.010xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 350 avg 3 books
02	Ronald Acuña Jr. ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs MILColin Rea · slot 1	--Valinor	20.0%market	+5.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.002xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 380 avg 3 books
03	Jazz Chisholm Jr. NYY Lineup pending	NYY vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 5	--Valinor	18.8%market	+5.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.096xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 410 avg 3 books
04	Riley Greene DET Lineup pending	DET vs CLETanner Bibee · slot 4	--Valinor	18.0%market	+5.0pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.969xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 435 avg 3 books
05	Anthony Santander TOR Lineup pending	TOR vs BALZach Eflin · slot 3	--Valinor	20.1%market	+4.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.020xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 380 avg 3 books
06	Austin Riley ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs MILColin Rea · slot 4	--Valinor	17.2%market	+4.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.002xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 460 avg 3 books
07	Giancarlo Stanton NYY Lineup pending	NYY vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 4	--Valinor	24.3%market	+4.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.096xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 295 avg 3 books
08	Josh Bell MIN Lineup pending	MIN vs NYMJose Quintana · slot 4	--Valinor	15.3%market	+4.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.010xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 530 avg 3 books
09	Aaron Judge NYY Lineup pending	NYY vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 2	--Valinor	29.6%market	+4.0pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.096xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 225 avg 3 books
10	Jj Bleday CIN Lineup pending	CIN vs CHCJameson Taillon · slot 6	--Valinor	14.1%market	+3.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.096xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 580 avg 3 books
11	Alec Burleson STL Lineup pending	STL vs TEXNathan Eovaldi · slot 3	--Valinor	14.1%market	+3.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.007xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 580 avg 3 books
12	Ozzie Albies ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs MILColin Rea · slot 5	--Valinor	13.5%market	+3.5pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.002xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 610 avg 3 books
13	Jesús Sánchez TOR Lineup pending	TOR vs BALZach Eflin · slot 5	--Valinor	13.5%market	+3.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.020xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 615 avg 3 books
14	Michael Harris II ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs MILColin Rea · slot 8	--Valinor	13.0%market	+3.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.002xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 640 avg 3 books
15	Jarren Duran BOS Lineup pending	BOS vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 1	--Valinor	12.0%market	+2.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.068xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 705 avg 3 books
16	Lars Nootbaar STL Lineup pending	STL vs TEXNathan Eovaldi · slot 5	--Valinor	11.6%market	+2.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.007xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 735 avg 3 books
17	Ben Rice NYY Lineup pending	NYY vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 6	--Valinor	17.3%market	+2.0pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.096xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 455 avg 3 books
18	Cal Raleigh SEA Lineup pending	SEA vs BOSNick Pivetta · slot 3	--Valinor	25.6%market	+1.5pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.068xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 275 avg 3 books
19	Trent Grisham NYY Lineup pending	NYY vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 7	--Valinor	17.0%market	+1.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.096xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 465 avg 3 books
20	Masataka Yoshida BOS Lineup pending	BOS vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 7	--Valinor	9.9%market	+1.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.068xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 875 avg 3 books
21	Cody Bellinger NYY Lineup pending	NYY vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 3	--Valinor	17.0%market	+1.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.096xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 465 avg 3 books
22	Elly De La Cruz CIN Lineup pending	CIN vs CHCJameson Taillon · slot 1	--Valinor	15.2%market	+1.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.096xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 535 avg 3 books
23	Daulton Varsho TOR Lineup pending	TOR vs BALZach Eflin · slot 4	--Valinor	18.1%market	+1.0pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.020xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 430 avg 3 books
24	Will Benson CIN Lineup pending	CIN vs CHCJameson Taillon · slot 7	--Valinor	15.1%market	+0.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.096xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 535 avg 3 books
25	Tj Friedl CIN Lineup pending	CIN vs CHCJameson Taillon · slot 2	--Valinor	13.2%market	+0.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.096xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 630 avg 3 books
26	Josh Naylor SEA Lineup pending	SEA vs BOSNick Pivetta · slot 4	--Valinor	16.4%market	+0.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.068xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 485 avg 3 books
27	Eugenio Suárez CIN Lineup pending	CIN vs CHCJameson Taillon · slot 3	--Valinor	21.4%market	+0.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.096xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 350 avg 3 books
28	Dominic Canzone SEA Lineup pending	SEA vs BOSNick Pivetta · slot 7	--Valinor	15.4%market	+0.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.068xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 525 avg 3 books
29	Luke Raley SEA Lineup pending	SEA vs BOSNick Pivetta · slot 8	--Valinor	14.9%market	+0.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.068xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 545 avg 3 books
30	Brendan Donovan SEA Lineup pending	SEA vs BOSNick Pivetta · slot 6	--Valinor	10.3%market	-0.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.068xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 835 avg 3 books
31	Drake Baldwin ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs MILColin Rea · slot 3	--Valinor	17.6%market	-0.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.002xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 450 avg 3 books
32	Spencer Steer CIN Lineup pending	CIN vs CHCJameson Taillon · slot 4	--Valinor	14.6%market	-0.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.096xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 560 avg 3 books
33	Tyler Stephenson CIN Lineup pending	CIN vs CHCJameson Taillon · slot 5	--Valinor	14.5%market	-0.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.096xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 565 avg 3 books
34	Mike Yastrzemski ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs MILColin Rea · slot 6	--Valinor	14.6%market	-0.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.002xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 560 avg 3 books
35	José Caballero NYY Lineup pending	NYY vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 1	--Valinor	9.1%market	-0.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.096xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 960 avg 3 books
36	Wilyer Abreu BOS Lineup pending	BOS vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 4	--Valinor	17.9%market	-0.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.068xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 440 avg 3 books
37	Roman Anthony BOS Lineup pending	BOS vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 2	--Valinor	14.0%market	-0.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.068xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 615 avg 3 books
38	Rob Refsnyder SEA Lineup pending	SEA vs BOSNick Pivetta · slot 2	--Valinor	14.8%market	-0.5pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.068xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 555 avg 3 books
39	Randy Arozarena SEA Lineup pending	SEA vs BOSNick Pivetta · slot 5	--Valinor	14.6%market	-0.5pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.068xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 560 avg 3 books
40	Triston Casas BOS Lineup pending	BOS vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 5	--Valinor	17.7%market	-0.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.068xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 445 avg 3 books
41	Nathan Lukes TOR Lineup pending	TOR vs BALZach Eflin · slot 6	--Valinor	10.4%market	-0.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.020xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 825 avg 3 books
42	Julio Rodríguez SEA Lineup pending	SEA vs BOSNick Pivetta · slot 1	--Valinor	18.2%market	-0.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.068xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 430 avg 3 books
43	Jordan Walker STL Lineup pending	STL vs TEXNathan Eovaldi · slot 7	--Valinor	10.6%market	-0.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.007xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 805 avg 3 books
44	Matt Olson ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs MILColin Rea · slot 2	--Valinor	21.2%market	-0.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.002xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 355 avg 3 books
45	Luke Keaschall MIN Lineup pending	MIN vs NYMJose Quintana · slot 1	--Valinor	12.2%market	-1.0pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.010xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 690 avg 3 books
46	Ryan Jeffers MIN Lineup pending	MIN vs NYMJose Quintana · slot 6	--Valinor	14.1%market	-1.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.010xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 610 avg 3 books
47	Byron Buxton MIN Lineup pending	MIN vs NYMJose Quintana · slot 3	--Valinor	22.8%market	-1.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.010xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 325 avg 3 books
48	Royce Lewis MIN Lineup pending	MIN vs NYMJose Quintana · slot 5	--Valinor	17.9%market	-1.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.010xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 440 avg 3 books
49	Romy Gonzalez BOS Lineup pending	BOS vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 6	--Valinor	12.4%market	-1.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.068xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 705 avg 3 books
50	Davis Schneider TOR Lineup pending	TOR vs BALZach Eflin · slot 7	--Valinor	15.6%market	-1.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.020xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 520 avg 3 books
51	Sean Murphy ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs MILColin Rea · slot 7	--Valinor	16.7%market	-1.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.002xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 480 avg 3 books
52	Nolan Gorman STL Lineup pending	STL vs TEXNathan Eovaldi · slot 4	--Valinor	19.3%market	-1.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.007xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 400 avg 3 books
53	Victor Scott II STL Lineup pending	STL vs TEXNathan Eovaldi · slot 1	--Valinor	7.7%market	-1.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.007xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
54	George Springer TOR Lineup pending	TOR vs BALZach Eflin · slot 1	--Valinor	18.2%market	-1.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.020xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 430 avg 3 books
55	Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR Lineup pending	TOR vs BALZach Eflin · slot 2	--Valinor	17.1%market	-1.5pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.020xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 465 avg 3 books
56	Trevor Larnach MIN Lineup pending	MIN vs NYMJose Quintana · slot 7	--Valinor	13.8%market	-1.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.010xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 625 avg 3 books
57	Ramón Urías STL Lineup pending	STL vs TEXNathan Eovaldi · slot 6	--Valinor	11.4%market	-1.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.007xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 740 avg 3 books
58	Iván Herrera STL Lineup pending	STL vs TEXNathan Eovaldi · slot 2	--Valinor	15.4%market	-2.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.007xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 550 avg 3 books
59	Colt Keith DET Lineup pending	DET vs CLETanner Bibee · slot 6	--Valinor	11.7%market	-2.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.969xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 755 avg 3 books
60	Zach McKinstry DET Lineup pending	DET vs CLETanner Bibee · slot 1	--Valinor	10.4%market	-2.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.969xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 865 avg 3 books
61	Willson Contreras BOS Lineup pending	BOS vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 3	--Valinor	17.2%market	-2.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.068xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 480 avg 3 books
62	Dillon Dingler DET Lineup pending	DET vs CLETanner Bibee · slot 7	--Valinor	11.9%market	-2.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.969xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 740 avg 3 books
63	Kerry Carpenter DET Lineup pending	DET vs CLETanner Bibee · slot 3	--Valinor	22.0%market	-3.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.969xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 355 avg 3 books
64	Jahmai Jones DET Lineup pending	DET vs CLETanner Bibee · slot 2	--Valinor	17.4%market	-3.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.969xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 475 avg 3 books
65	Spencer Torkelson DET Lineup pending	DET vs CLETanner Bibee · slot 5	--Valinor	18.0%market	-3.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.969xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 455 avg 3 books

Top saved signals

5 value rows

01 Matt WallnerMIN vs NYM · FanDuel

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp 02 Giancarlo StantonNYY vs PHI · FanDuel

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp 03 Aaron JudgeNYY vs PHI · FanDuel

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp 04 Ronald Acuña Jr.ATL vs MIL · FanDuel

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp 05 Anthony SantanderTOR vs BAL · FanDuel

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp

Data context

0 sample flags

Status0roster/transaction rows

Lineups0confirmed starters

Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.