Mithrandir Metrics

HR BOARD 2024-08-15 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER armed; waiting on confirmed lineups

Lane Health 2026-09-02

Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable

Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable

Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research

Selective Lane

Valinor is available, but quiet today.

Valinor covers Home Run Market Gaps as a selective lane but didn't qualify any rows on today's slate. Try Palantir or check back tomorrow.

Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.

Lineups not posted

The in-lineup filter is armed, but no confirmed lineup artifact exists for this date yet. The board is showing the projected pool honestly.

Home-run board · largest Valinor gap versus market

#	Player	Matchup	Sim	Implied	Gap	Three lanes · P/F/V	Spread	Park	Weather	Recent	Best line
01	Tyler O'Neill BAL Lineup pending	BAL vs BOSNick Pivetta · slot 3	--Valinor	20.0%market	+5.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.012xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 380 avg 3 books
02	Corey Seager TEX Lineup pending	TEX vs MINBailey Ober · slot 2	--Valinor	22.1%market	+5.0pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.051xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 335 avg 3 books
03	Riley Greene DET Lineup pending	DET vs SEABryce Miller · slot 4	--Valinor	18.0%market	+5.0pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.968xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 435 avg 3 books
04	Gary Sánchez MIL Lineup pending	MIL vs LADJack Flaherty · slot 6	--Valinor	16.7%market	+4.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.013xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 475 avg 3 books
05	Joc Pederson TEX Lineup pending	TEX vs MINBailey Ober · slot 5	--Valinor	15.9%market	+4.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.051xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 505 avg 3 books
06	Jarren Duran BOS Lineup pending	BOS vs BALZach Eflin · slot 1	--Valinor	12.0%market	+2.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.012xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 705 avg 3 books
07	James Wood WSH Lineup pending	WSH vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 2	--Valinor	17.0%market	+1.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.055xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 465 avg 3 books
08	Ozzie Albies ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs SFLogan Webb · slot 5	--Valinor	13.5%market	+1.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.985xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 610 avg 3 books
09	Masataka Yoshida BOS Lineup pending	BOS vs BALZach Eflin · slot 7	--Valinor	9.9%market	+1.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.012xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 875 avg 3 books
10	Ronald Acuña Jr. ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs SFLogan Webb · slot 1	--Valinor	20.0%market	+1.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.985xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 380 avg 3 books
11	Rafael Devers SF Lineup pending	SF vs ATLMax Fried · slot 2	--Valinor	20.0%market	+1.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.985xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 380 avg 3 books
12	Gunnar Henderson BAL Lineup pending	BAL vs BOSNick Pivetta · slot 1	--Valinor	17.5%market	+0.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.012xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 450 avg 3 books
13	Brandon Nimmo TEX Lineup pending	TEX vs MINBailey Ober · slot 3	--Valinor	15.8%market	+0.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.051xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 510 avg 3 books
14	Austin Riley ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs SFLogan Webb · slot 4	--Valinor	17.2%market	+0.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.985xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 460 avg 3 books
15	Luis García Jr. WSH Lineup pending	WSH vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 4	--Valinor	13.1%market	+0.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.055xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 635 avg 3 books
16	Daylen Lile WSH Lineup pending	WSH vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 3	--Valinor	12.1%market	+0.5pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.055xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 695 avg 3 books
17	Christian Yelich MIL Lineup pending	MIL vs LADJack Flaherty · slot 2	--Valinor	16.9%market	+0.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.013xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 470 avg 3 books
18	Keibert Ruiz WSH Lineup pending	WSH vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 5	--Valinor	10.7%market	+0.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.055xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 805 avg 3 books
19	Cj Abrams WSH Lineup pending	WSH vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 1	--Valinor	14.0%market	+0.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.055xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 585 avg 3 books
20	Evan Carter TEX Lineup pending	TEX vs MINBailey Ober · slot 6	--Valinor	12.3%market	+0.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.051xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 680 avg 3 books
21	Michael Harris II ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs SFLogan Webb · slot 8	--Valinor	13.2%market	-0.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.985xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 635 avg 3 books
22	José Tena WSH Lineup pending	WSH vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 6	--Valinor	7.8%market	-0.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.055xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 1130 avg 3 books
23	Wyatt Langford TEX Lineup pending	TEX vs MINBailey Ober · slot 1	--Valinor	15.3%market	-0.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.051xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 530 avg 3 books
24	Colton Cowser BAL Lineup pending	BAL vs BOSNick Pivetta · slot 8	--Valinor	15.7%market	-0.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.012xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 515 avg 3 books
25	Dylan Crews WSH Lineup pending	WSH vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 7	--Valinor	12.4%market	-0.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.055xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 705 avg 3 books
26	Wilyer Abreu BOS Lineup pending	BOS vs BALZach Eflin · slot 4	--Valinor	17.9%market	-0.5pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.012xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 440 avg 3 books
27	Jordan Westburg BAL Lineup pending	BAL vs BOSNick Pivetta · slot 5	--Valinor	16.1%market	-0.5pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.012xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 500 avg 3 books
28	Josh Jung TEX Lineup pending	TEX vs MINBailey Ober · slot 7	--Valinor	13.6%market	-0.5pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.051xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 605 avg 3 books
29	Roman Anthony BOS Lineup pending	BOS vs BALZach Eflin · slot 2	--Valinor	14.0%market	-0.5pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.012xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 615 avg 3 books
30	Danny Jansen TEX Lineup pending	TEX vs MINBailey Ober · slot 8	--Valinor	14.8%market	-0.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.051xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 550 avg 3 books
31	Triston Casas BOS Lineup pending	BOS vs BALZach Eflin · slot 5	--Valinor	17.7%market	-0.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.012xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 445 avg 3 books
32	Adley Rutschman BAL Lineup pending	BAL vs BOSNick Pivetta · slot 6	--Valinor	12.7%market	-0.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.012xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 690 avg 3 books
33	Jake Bauers MIL Lineup pending	MIL vs LADJack Flaherty · slot 7	--Valinor	14.6%market	-0.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.013xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 560 avg 3 books
34	Andrew Vaughn MIL Lineup pending	MIL vs LADJack Flaherty · slot 5	--Valinor	13.8%market	-0.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.013xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 600 avg 3 books
35	Brice Turang MIL Lineup pending	MIL vs LADJack Flaherty · slot 1	--Valinor	10.4%market	-1.0pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.013xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 825 avg 3 books
36	Colt Keith DET Lineup pending	DET vs SEABryce Miller · slot 6	--Valinor	11.2%market	-1.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.968xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 755 avg 3 books
37	William Contreras MIL Lineup pending	MIL vs LADJack Flaherty · slot 3	--Valinor	13.1%market	-1.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.013xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 635 avg 3 books
38	Romy Gonzalez BOS Lineup pending	BOS vs BALZach Eflin · slot 6	--Valinor	12.4%market	-1.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.012xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 705 avg 3 books
39	Zach McKinstry DET Lineup pending	DET vs SEABryce Miller · slot 1	--Valinor	10.0%market	-1.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.968xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 865 avg 3 books
40	Jacob Wilson ATH Lineup pending	ATH vs NYMJose Quintana · slot 6	--Valinor	9.9%market	-1.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.983xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 870 avg 3 books
41	Taylor Ward BAL Lineup pending	BAL vs BOSNick Pivetta · slot 4	--Valinor	18.4%market	-1.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.012xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 425 avg 3 books
42	Austin Wynns ATH Lineup pending	ATH vs NYMJose Quintana · slot 7	--Valinor	12.3%market	-1.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.983xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 715 avg 3 books
43	Kerry Carpenter DET Lineup pending	DET vs SEABryce Miller · slot 3	--Valinor	21.5%market	-1.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.968xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 350 avg 3 books
44	Jackson Chourio MIL Lineup pending	MIL vs LADJack Flaherty · slot 4	--Valinor	15.6%market	-1.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.013xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 520 avg 3 books
45	Jake Burger TEX Lineup pending	TEX vs MINBailey Ober · slot 4	--Valinor	20.8%market	-1.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.051xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 365 avg 3 books
46	Pete Alonso BAL Lineup pending	BAL vs BOSNick Pivetta · slot 2	--Valinor	23.3%market	-1.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.012xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 315 avg 3 books
47	Brent Rooker ATH Lineup pending	ATH vs NYMJose Quintana · slot 2	--Valinor	22.7%market	-1.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.983xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 340 avg 3 books
48	Ryan Mountcastle BAL Lineup pending	BAL vs BOSNick Pivetta · slot 7	--Valinor	11.4%market	-1.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.012xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 745 avg 3 books
49	Shea Langeliers ATH Lineup pending	ATH vs NYMJose Quintana · slot 3	--Valinor	22.4%market	-1.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.983xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 330 avg 3 books
50	Dillon Dingler DET Lineup pending	DET vs SEABryce Miller · slot 7	--Valinor	11.9%market	-1.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.968xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 740 avg 3 books
51	Tyler Fitzgerald SF Lineup pending	SF vs ATLMax Fried · slot 6	--Valinor	13.6%market	-2.0pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.985xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 635 avg 3 books
52	Jahmai Jones DET Lineup pending	DET vs SEABryce Miller · slot 2	--Valinor	17.4%market	-2.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.968xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 475 avg 3 books
53	Zack Gelof ATH Lineup pending	ATH vs NYMJose Quintana · slot 9	--Valinor	13.9%market	-2.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.983xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 620 avg 3 books
54	Heliot Ramos SF Lineup pending	SF vs ATLMax Fried · slot 5	--Valinor	15.0%market	-2.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.985xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 565 avg 3 books
55	Jung Hoo Lee SF Lineup pending	SF vs ATLMax Fried · slot 7	--Valinor	8.0%market	-2.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.985xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
56	Tyler Soderstrom ATH Lineup pending	ATH vs NYMJose Quintana · slot 5	--Valinor	16.3%market	-2.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.983xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 515 avg 3 books
57	Lawrence Butler ATH Lineup pending	ATH vs NYMJose Quintana · slot 4	--Valinor	17.0%market	-2.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.983xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
58	Spencer Torkelson DET Lineup pending	DET vs SEABryce Miller · slot 5	--Valinor	18.0%market	-2.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.968xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 455 avg 3 books
59	Matt Chapman SF Lineup pending	SF vs ATLMax Fried · slot 3	--Valinor	17.0%market	-2.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.985xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
60	Willy Adames SF Lineup pending	SF vs ATLMax Fried · slot 4	--Valinor	18.4%market	-2.5pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.985xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
61	Willson Contreras BOS Lineup pending	BOS vs BALZach Eflin · slot 3	--Valinor	17.2%market	-2.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.012xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 480 avg 3 books
62	Luis Arraez SF Lineup pending	SF vs ATLMax Fried · slot 1	--Valinor	8.0%market	-2.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.985xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
63	Nick Kurtz ATH Lineup pending	ATH vs NYMJose Quintana · slot 1	--Valinor	28.2%market	-3.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.983xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 255 avg 3 books
64	Mike Yastrzemski ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs SFLogan Webb · slot 6	--Valinor	15.2%market	-3.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.985xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 560 avg 3 books
65	Drake Baldwin ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs SFLogan Webb · slot 3	--Valinor	18.2%market	-3.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.985xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 450 avg 3 books
66	Matt Olson ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs SFLogan Webb · slot 2	--Valinor	21.7%market	-4.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.985xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 360 avg 3 books
67	Sean Murphy ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs SFLogan Webb · slot 7	--Valinor	17.1%market	-4.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.985xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 485 avg 3 books

Top saved signals

5 value rows

01 Corey SeagerTEX vs MIN · FanDuel

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp 02 Tyler O'NeillBAL vs BOS · FanDuel

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp 03 Riley GreeneDET vs SEA · FanDuel

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp 04 Gary SánchezMIL vs LAD · FanDuel

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp 05 Joc PedersonTEX vs MIN · FanDuel

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp

Data context

0 sample flags

Status0roster/transaction rows

Lineups0confirmed starters

Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.