Mithrandir Metrics

HR BOARD 2024-08-29 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER armed; waiting on confirmed lineups

Lane Health 2026-09-02

Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable

Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable

Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research

Selective Lane

Valinor is available, but quiet today.

Valinor covers Home Run Market Gaps as a selective lane but didn't qualify any rows on today's slate. Try Palantir or check back tomorrow.

Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.

Lineups not posted

The in-lineup filter is armed, but no confirmed lineup artifact exists for this date yet. The board is showing the projected pool honestly.

Home-run board · largest Valinor gap versus market

#	Player	Matchup	Sim	Implied	Gap	Three lanes · P/F/V	Spread	Park	Weather	Recent	Best line
01	Juan Soto NYM Lineup pending	NYM vs AZRyne Nelson · slot 1	--Valinor	23.2%market	+6.5pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.000xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 315 avg 3 books
02	Yordan Alvarez HOU Lineup pending	HOU vs KCBrady Singer · slot 2	--Valinor	20.9%market	+5.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.954xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 360 avg 3 books
03	Ronald Acuña Jr. ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs PHICristopher Sánchez · slot 1	--Valinor	20.0%market	+5.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.059xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 380 avg 3 books
04	Rafael Devers SF Lineup pending	SF vs MILAaron Civale · slot 2	--Valinor	20.0%market	+4.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.009xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 380 avg 3 books
05	Austin Riley ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs PHICristopher Sánchez · slot 4	--Valinor	17.2%market	+4.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.059xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 460 avg 3 books
06	Bryce Harper PHI Lineup pending	PHI vs ATLCharlie Morton · slot 2	--Valinor	18.9%market	+3.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.059xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 410 avg 3 books
07	Alec Burleson STL Lineup pending	STL vs SDMichael King · slot 3	--Valinor	14.1%market	+3.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.984xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 580 avg 3 books
08	Ozzie Albies ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs PHICristopher Sánchez · slot 5	--Valinor	13.5%market	+3.5pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.059xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 610 avg 3 books
09	Fernando Tatis Jr. SD Lineup pending	SD vs STLSonny Gray · slot 1	--Valinor	17.2%market	+3.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.984xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 460 avg 3 books
10	Jorge Polanco NYM Lineup pending	NYM vs AZRyne Nelson · slot 4	--Valinor	17.3%market	+3.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.000xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 455 avg 3 books
11	Lars Nootbaar STL Lineup pending	STL vs SDMichael King · slot 5	--Valinor	11.6%market	+2.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.984xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 735 avg 3 books
12	Carlos Correa HOU Lineup pending	HOU vs KCBrady Singer · slot 6	--Valinor	11.9%market	+2.0pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.954xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 710 avg 3 books
13	Kyle Schwarber PHI Lineup pending	PHI vs ATLCharlie Morton · slot 3	--Valinor	25.7%market	+1.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.059xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 275 avg 3 books
14	Salvador Perez KC Lineup pending	KC vs HOUHunter Brown · slot 4	--Valinor	17.8%market	+1.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.954xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 440 avg 3 books
15	Bobby Witt Jr. KC Lineup pending	KC vs HOUHunter Brown · slot 1	--Valinor	17.5%market	+1.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.954xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 450 avg 3 books
16	Michael Harris II ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs PHICristopher Sánchez · slot 8	--Valinor	13.0%market	+1.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.059xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 640 avg 3 books
17	Luis Robert Jr. NYM Lineup pending	NYM vs AZRyne Nelson · slot 9	--Valinor	15.3%market	+1.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.000xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 530 avg 3 books
18	Ramón Laureano SD Lineup pending	SD vs STLSonny Gray · slot 5	--Valinor	16.0%market	+0.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.984xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 500 avg 3 books
19	Yainer Diaz HOU Lineup pending	HOU vs KCBrady Singer · slot 7	--Valinor	14.3%market	+0.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.954xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 570 avg 3 books
20	Alec Bohm PHI Lineup pending	PHI vs ATLCharlie Morton · slot 5	--Valinor	11.3%market	+0.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.059xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 755 avg 3 books
21	Brandon Marsh PHI Lineup pending	PHI vs ATLCharlie Morton · slot 6	--Valinor	12.2%market	-0.5pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.059xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 690 avg 3 books
22	Corbin Carroll AZ Lineup pending	AZ vs NYMDavid Peterson · slot 1	--Valinor	18.1%market	-0.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.000xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 435 avg 3 books
23	Jordan Walker STL Lineup pending	STL vs SDMichael King · slot 7	--Valinor	10.6%market	-0.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.984xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 805 avg 3 books
24	Lane Thomas KC Lineup pending	KC vs HOUHunter Brown · slot 5	--Valinor	14.6%market	-0.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.954xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 560 avg 3 books
25	Jung Hoo Lee SF Lineup pending	SF vs MILAaron Civale · slot 7	--Valinor	7.7%market	-1.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.009xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
26	Brett Baty NYM Lineup pending	NYM vs AZRyne Nelson · slot 8	--Valinor	13.5%market	-1.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.000xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 615 avg 3 books
27	Lourdes Gurriel Jr. AZ Lineup pending	AZ vs NYMDavid Peterson · slot 4	--Valinor	15.2%market	-1.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.000xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 535 avg 3 books
28	Trea Turner PHI Lineup pending	PHI vs ATLCharlie Morton · slot 1	--Valinor	15.0%market	-1.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.059xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 545 avg 3 books
29	Sean Murphy ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs PHICristopher Sánchez · slot 7	--Valinor	16.7%market	-1.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.059xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 480 avg 3 books
30	Tyler Fitzgerald SF Lineup pending	SF vs MILAaron Civale · slot 6	--Valinor	13.1%market	-1.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.009xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 635 avg 3 books
31	Edmundo Sosa PHI Lineup pending	PHI vs ATLCharlie Morton · slot 7	--Valinor	13.5%market	-1.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.059xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 615 avg 3 books
32	Victor Scott II STL Lineup pending	STL vs SDMichael King · slot 1	--Valinor	7.7%market	-1.5pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.984xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
33	Heliot Ramos SF Lineup pending	SF vs MILAaron Civale · slot 5	--Valinor	14.5%market	-1.5pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.009xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 565 avg 3 books
34	Geraldo Perdomo AZ Lineup pending	AZ vs NYMDavid Peterson · slot 3	--Valinor	9.8%market	-1.5pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.000xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 880 avg 3 books
35	Nolan Gorman STL Lineup pending	STL vs SDMichael King · slot 4	--Valinor	19.3%market	-1.5pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.984xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 400 avg 3 books
36	Edgar Quero CWS Lineup pending	CWS vs TEXNathan Eovaldi · slot 6	--Valinor	7.8%market	-1.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.963xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 1125 avg 3 books
37	Matt Chapman SF Lineup pending	SF vs MILAaron Civale · slot 3	--Valinor	16.4%market	-1.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.009xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 490 avg 3 books
38	Jackson Merrill SD Lineup pending	SD vs STLSonny Gray · slot 3	--Valinor	16.2%market	-1.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.984xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 495 avg 3 books
39	Adolis García PHI Lineup pending	PHI vs ATLCharlie Morton · slot 4	--Valinor	18.4%market	-1.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.059xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 425 avg 3 books
40	Jake Cronenworth SD Lineup pending	SD vs STLSonny Gray · slot 7	--Valinor	10.1%market	-1.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.984xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 850 avg 3 books
41	Mark Vientos NYM Lineup pending	NYM vs AZRyne Nelson · slot 6	--Valinor	17.7%market	-1.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.000xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 445 avg 3 books
42	Bo Bichette NYM Lineup pending	NYM vs AZRyne Nelson · slot 3	--Valinor	12.5%market	-1.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.000xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
43	Willy Adames SF Lineup pending	SF vs MILAaron Civale · slot 4	--Valinor	18.4%market	-1.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.009xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
44	Isaac Collins KC Lineup pending	KC vs HOUHunter Brown · slot 2	--Valinor	10.1%market	-1.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.954xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 850 avg 3 books
45	Kyle Teel CWS Lineup pending	CWS vs TEXNathan Eovaldi · slot 2	--Valinor	13.6%market	-1.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.963xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 610 avg 3 books
46	Marcus Semien NYM Lineup pending	NYM vs AZRyne Nelson · slot 5	--Valinor	14.4%market	-1.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.000xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 595 avg 3 books
47	Luis Arraez SF Lineup pending	SF vs MILAaron Civale · slot 1	--Valinor	7.7%market	-1.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.009xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
48	Francisco Lindor NYM Lineup pending	NYM vs AZRyne Nelson · slot 2	--Valinor	19.6%market	-2.0pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.000xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 410 avg 3 books
49	Ramón Urías STL Lineup pending	STL vs SDMichael King · slot 6	--Valinor	11.9%market	-2.0pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.984xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 740 avg 3 books
50	Francisco Alvarez NYM Lineup pending	NYM vs AZRyne Nelson · slot 7	--Valinor	17.2%market	-2.0pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.000xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 480 avg 3 books
51	Miguel Andujar SD Lineup pending	SD vs STLSonny Gray · slot 6	--Valinor	10.8%market	-2.0pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.984xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 830 avg 3 books
52	Chase Meidroth CWS Lineup pending	CWS vs TEXNathan Eovaldi · slot 1	--Valinor	8.0%market	-2.0pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.963xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
53	Mike Yastrzemski ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs PHICristopher Sánchez · slot 6	--Valinor	15.2%market	-2.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.059xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 560 avg 3 books
54	Carlos Santana AZ Lineup pending	AZ vs NYMDavid Peterson · slot 5	--Valinor	14.9%market	-2.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.000xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 570 avg 3 books
55	Vinnie Pasquantino KC Lineup pending	KC vs HOUHunter Brown · slot 3	--Valinor	18.2%market	-2.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.954xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 450 avg 3 books
56	Andrew Benintendi CWS Lineup pending	CWS vs TEXNathan Eovaldi · slot 4	--Valinor	14.3%market	-2.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.963xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 600 avg 3 books
57	Starling Marte KC Lineup pending	KC vs HOUHunter Brown · slot 7	--Valinor	9.9%market	-2.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.954xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 910 avg 3 books
58	Jonathan India KC Lineup pending	KC vs HOUHunter Brown · slot 6	--Valinor	10.5%market	-2.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.954xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 850 avg 3 books
59	Drake Baldwin ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs PHICristopher Sánchez · slot 3	--Valinor	18.2%market	-2.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.059xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 450 avg 3 books
60	Iván Herrera STL Lineup pending	STL vs SDMichael King · slot 2	--Valinor	15.4%market	-2.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.984xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 550 avg 3 books
61	Manny Machado SD Lineup pending	SD vs STLSonny Gray · slot 2	--Valinor	19.8%market	-2.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.984xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 405 avg 3 books
62	Colson Montgomery CWS Lineup pending	CWS vs TEXNathan Eovaldi · slot 3	--Valinor	25.6%market	-2.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.963xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 290 avg 3 books
63	Jeremy Peña HOU Lineup pending	HOU vs KCBrady Singer · slot 1	--Valinor	12.2%market	-2.5pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.954xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 720 avg 3 books
64	Lenyn Sosa CWS Lineup pending	CWS vs TEXNathan Eovaldi · slot 7	--Valinor	14.5%market	-2.5pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.963xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 590 avg 3 books
65	Austin Hays CWS Lineup pending	CWS vs TEXNathan Eovaldi · slot 5	--Valinor	13.3%market	-2.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.963xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 650 avg 3 books
66	Adrian Del Castillo AZ Lineup pending	AZ vs NYMDavid Peterson · slot 7	--Valinor	14.5%market	-2.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.000xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 590 avg 3 books
67	Pavin Smith AZ Lineup pending	AZ vs NYMDavid Peterson · slot 6	--Valinor	14.8%market	-2.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.000xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 575 avg 3 books
68	Jose Altuve HOU Lineup pending	HOU vs KCBrady Singer · slot 3	--Valinor	16.5%market	-2.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.954xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 505 avg 3 books
69	Nick Castellanos SD Lineup pending	SD vs STLSonny Gray · slot 4	--Valinor	15.6%market	-2.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.984xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 540 avg 3 books
70	Christian Walker HOU Lineup pending	HOU vs KCBrady Singer · slot 4	--Valinor	19.1%market	-2.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.954xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 425 avg 3 books
71	Matt Olson ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs PHICristopher Sánchez · slot 2	--Valinor	21.7%market	-3.0pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.059xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 360 avg 3 books
72	Isaac Paredes HOU Lineup pending	HOU vs KCBrady Singer · slot 5	--Valinor	17.2%market	-3.5pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.954xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 480 avg 3 books
73	Ketel Marte AZ Lineup pending	AZ vs NYMDavid Peterson · slot 2	--Valinor	22.0%market	-3.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.000xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 355 avg 3 books

Top saved signals

5 value rows

01 Juan SotoNYM vs AZ · FanDuel

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp 02 Yordan AlvarezHOU vs KC · FanDuel

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp 03 Ronald Acuña Jr.ATL vs PHI · FanDuel

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp 04 Rafael DeversSF vs MIL · FanDuel

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp 05 Bryce HarperPHI vs ATL · FanDuel

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp

Data context

0 sample flags

Status0roster/transaction rows

Lineups0confirmed starters

Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.