Mithrandir Metrics
Valinor lane 2024-09-01 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
94
Matched
282
Lineups
0
HR BOARD 2024-09-01 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER armed; waiting on confirmed lineups
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Selective Lane

Valinor is available, but quiet today.

Valinor covers Home Run Market Gaps as a selective lane but didn't qualify any rows on today's slate. Try Palantir or check back tomorrow.

Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Lineups not posted

The in-lineup filter is armed, but no confirmed lineup artifact exists for this date yet. The board is showing the projected pool honestly.

Home-run board · largest Valinor gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01 Lineup pending
NYY vs STLMiles Mikolas · slot 4
--Valinor 24.3%market +5.7pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.138xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 295 avg 3 books
02 Lineup pending
ATL vs PHIAaron Nola · slot 1
--Valinor 20.0%market +5.7pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.088xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 380 avg 3 books
03 Lineup pending
NYY vs STLMiles Mikolas · slot 2
--Valinor 29.6%market +5.3pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.138xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 225 avg 3 books
04 Lineup pending
NYY vs STLMiles Mikolas · slot 5
--Valinor 18.8%market +5.2pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.138xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 410 avg 3 books
05 Lineup pending
CLE vs PITMitch Keller · slot 1
--Valinor 19.4%market +4.9pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.917xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 395 avg 3 books
06 Lineup pending
ATL vs PHIAaron Nola · slot 4
--Valinor 17.2%market +4.7pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.088xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 460 avg 3 books
07 Lineup pending
SD vs TBRyan Pepiot · slot 1
--Valinor 17.2%market +4.7pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.010xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 460 avg 3 books
08 Lineup pending
TOR vs MINBailey Ober · slot 3
--Valinor 20.1%market +4.4pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.974xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 380 avg 3 books
09 Lineup pending
LAD vs AZBrandon Pfaadt · slot 2
--Valinor 16.3%market +4.3pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.000xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 490 avg 3 books
10 Lineup pending
LAD vs AZBrandon Pfaadt · slot 5
--Valinor 16.0%market +4.3pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.000xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 500 avg 3 books
11 Lineup pending
STL vs NYYNestor Cortes · slot 3
--Valinor 14.1%market +3.6pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.138xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 580 avg 3 books
12 Lineup pending
ATL vs PHIAaron Nola · slot 5
--Valinor 13.5%market +3.5pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.088xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 610 avg 3 books
13 Lineup pending
TOR vs MINBailey Ober · slot 5
--Valinor 13.5%market +3.3pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.974xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 615 avg 3 books
14 Lineup pending
ATL vs PHIAaron Nola · slot 8
--Valinor 13.0%market +3.2pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.088xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 640 avg 3 books
15 Lineup pending
LAD vs AZBrandon Pfaadt · slot 1
--Valinor 28.6%market +3.2pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.000xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 235 avg 3 books
16 Lineup pending
STL vs NYYNestor Cortes · slot 5
--Valinor 11.6%market +2.8pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.138xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 735 avg 3 books
17 Lineup pending
STL vs NYYNestor Cortes · slot 7
--Valinor 10.6%market +2.4pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.138xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 815 avg 3 books
18 Lineup pending
SD vs TBRyan Pepiot · slot 5
--Valinor 16.0%market +2.1pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.010xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 500 avg 3 books
19 Lineup pending
COL vs BALZach Eflin · slot 3
--Valinor 18.1%market +2.1pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.131xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 430 avg 3 books
20 Lineup pending
STL vs NYYNestor Cortes · slot 2
--Valinor 14.6%market +2.0pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.138xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 560 avg 3 books
21
Ben Rice NYY
Lineup pending
NYY vs STLMiles Mikolas · slot 6
--Valinor 17.3%market +1.9pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.138xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 455 avg 3 books
22 Lineup pending
STL vs NYYNestor Cortes · slot 4
--Valinor 18.9%market +1.9pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.138xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 410 avg 3 books
23 Lineup pending
KC vs HOURonel Blanco · slot 4
--Valinor 17.8%market +1.7pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.927xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 440 avg 3 books
24 Lineup pending
NYY vs STLMiles Mikolas · slot 7
--Valinor 17.0%market +1.6pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.138xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 465 avg 3 books
25 Lineup pending
NYY vs STLMiles Mikolas · slot 3
--Valinor 17.0%market +1.6pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.138xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 465 avg 3 books
26 Lineup pending
KC vs HOURonel Blanco · slot 1
--Valinor 17.5%market +1.6pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.927xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 450 avg 3 books
27 Lineup pending
ATL vs PHIAaron Nola · slot 3
--Valinor 17.2%market +1.5pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.088xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 460 avg 3 books
28 Lineup pending
STL vs NYYNestor Cortes · slot 6
--Valinor 11.4%market +1.3pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.138xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 745 avg 3 books
29 Lineup pending
ATL vs PHIAaron Nola · slot 2
--Valinor 20.7%market +1.2pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.088xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 365 avg 3 books
30 Lineup pending
LAA vs SEABryce Miller · slot 6
--Valinor 14.4%market +1.1pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.017xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 570 avg 3 books
31 Lineup pending
COL vs BALZach Eflin · slot 2
--Valinor 20.4%market +1.0pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.131xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 370 avg 3 books
32 Lineup pending
ATL vs PHIAaron Nola · slot 6
--Valinor 14.5%market +0.9pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.088xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 565 avg 3 books
33 Lineup pending
TOR vs MINBailey Ober · slot 4
--Valinor 18.1%market +0.7pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.974xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 430 avg 3 books
34 Lineup pending
COL vs BALZach Eflin · slot 6
--Valinor 12.2%market +0.7pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.131xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 690 avg 3 books
35 Lineup pending
COL vs BALZach Eflin · slot 1
--Valinor 10.9%market +0.6pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.131xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 790 avg 3 books
36
Zach Neto LAA
Lineup pending
LAA vs SEABryce Miller · slot 1
--Valinor 17.6%market +0.5pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.017xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 445 avg 3 books
37 Lineup pending
ATL vs PHIAaron Nola · slot 7
--Valinor 16.3%market +0.2pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.088xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 490 avg 3 books
38 Lineup pending
COL vs BALZach Eflin · slot 5
--Valinor 13.3%market +0.1pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.131xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 625 avg 3 books
39 Lineup pending
COL vs BALZach Eflin · slot 4
--Valinor 13.3%market +0.0pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.131xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 625 avg 3 books
40 Lineup pending
LAD vs AZBrandon Pfaadt · slot 9
--Valinor 14.1%market -0.1pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.000xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 585 avg 3 books
41 Lineup pending
COL vs BALZach Eflin · slot 7
--Valinor 11.0%market -0.2pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.131xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 770 avg 3 books
42 Lineup pending
STL vs NYYNestor Cortes · slot 1
--Valinor 7.7%market -0.3pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.138xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
43 Lineup pending
NYY vs STLMiles Mikolas · slot 1
--Valinor 9.1%market -0.3pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.138xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 960 avg 3 books
44 Lineup pending
KC vs HOURonel Blanco · slot 5
--Valinor 14.6%market -0.4pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.927xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 560 avg 3 books
45 Lineup pending
SD vs TBRyan Pepiot · slot 3
--Valinor 16.2%market -0.5pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.010xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 495 avg 3 books
46 Lineup pending
KC vs HOURonel Blanco · slot 3
--Valinor 17.6%market -0.7pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.927xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 450 avg 3 books
47 Lineup pending
TOR vs MINBailey Ober · slot 6
--Valinor 10.4%market -0.8pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.974xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 825 avg 3 books
48 Lineup pending
LAA vs SEABryce Miller · slot 7
--Valinor 9.2%market -0.8pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.017xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 940 avg 3 books
49 Lineup pending
KC vs HOURonel Blanco · slot 2
--Valinor 10.1%market -0.9pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.927xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 850 avg 3 books
50
Max Muncy LAD
Lineup pending
LAD vs AZBrandon Pfaadt · slot 6
--Valinor 20.1%market -0.9pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.000xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 380 avg 3 books
51 Lineup pending
SD vs TBRyan Pepiot · slot 7
--Valinor 10.1%market -1.0pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.010xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 850 avg 3 books
52 Lineup pending
SD vs TBRyan Pepiot · slot 2
--Valinor 19.1%market -1.1pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.010xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 405 avg 3 books
53 Lineup pending
SD vs TBRyan Pepiot · slot 6
--Valinor 10.3%market -1.4pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.010xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 830 avg 3 books
54 Lineup pending
LAD vs AZBrandon Pfaadt · slot 3
--Valinor 19.1%market -1.4pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.000xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 405 avg 3 books
55 Lineup pending
KC vs HOURonel Blanco · slot 6
--Valinor 10.2%market -1.5pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.927xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 845 avg 3 books
56 Lineup pending
TOR vs MINBailey Ober · slot 7
--Valinor 15.6%market -1.5pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.974xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 520 avg 3 books
57 Lineup pending
KC vs HOURonel Blanco · slot 7
--Valinor 9.6%market -1.5pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.927xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 905 avg 3 books
58 Lineup pending
LAA vs SEABryce Miller · slot 8
--Valinor 14.1%market -1.6pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.017xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 585 avg 3 books
59 Lineup pending
CWS vs NYMSean Manaea · slot 6
--Valinor 7.8%market -1.6pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.924xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1125 avg 3 books
60 Lineup pending
LAA vs SEABryce Miller · slot 5
--Valinor 18.1%market -1.6pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.017xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 435 avg 3 books
61 Lineup pending
LAA vs SEABryce Miller · slot 2
--Valinor 20.8%market -1.6pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.017xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 365 avg 3 books
62 Lineup pending
LAD vs AZBrandon Pfaadt · slot 7
--Valinor 14.5%market -1.6pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.000xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 565 avg 3 books
63 Lineup pending
CWS vs NYMSean Manaea · slot 1
--Valinor 7.7%market -1.7pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.924xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
64 Lineup pending
LAA vs SEABryce Miller · slot 3
--Valinor 18.6%market -1.7pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.017xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 420 avg 3 books
65 Lineup pending
TOR vs MINBailey Ober · slot 1
--Valinor 18.2%market -1.7pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.974xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 430 avg 3 books
66
Jo Adell LAA
Lineup pending
LAA vs SEABryce Miller · slot 4
--Valinor 22.2%market -1.7pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.017xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 335 avg 3 books
67 Lineup pending
CWS vs NYMSean Manaea · slot 7
--Valinor 14.0%market -1.8pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.924xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 590 avg 3 books
68 Lineup pending
TOR vs MINBailey Ober · slot 2
--Valinor 17.7%market -1.8pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.974xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
69 Lineup pending
SD vs TBRyan Pepiot · slot 4
--Valinor 15.6%market -1.8pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.010xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 540 avg 3 books
70 Lineup pending
CWS vs NYMSean Manaea · slot 5
--Valinor 12.8%market -1.9pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.924xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 650 avg 3 books
71 Lineup pending
CLE vs PITMitch Keller · slot 7
--Valinor 9.5%market -1.9pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.917xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 915 avg 3 books
72 Lineup pending
LAD vs AZBrandon Pfaadt · slot 4
--Valinor 19.2%market -1.9pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.000xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
73 Lineup pending
CLE vs PITMitch Keller · slot 6
--Valinor 12.5%market -2.1pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.917xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 700 avg 3 books
74 Lineup pending
CLE vs PITMitch Keller · slot 2
--Valinor 9.2%market -2.3pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.917xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 985 avg 3 books
75 Lineup pending
TB vs SDDylan Cease · slot 7
--Valinor 8.0%market -2.5pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.010xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
76
Kyle Teel CWS
Lineup pending
CWS vs NYMSean Manaea · slot 2
--Valinor 14.1%market -2.5pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.924xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 610 avg 3 books
77
Bo Naylor CLE
Lineup pending
CLE vs PITMitch Keller · slot 4
--Valinor 15.8%market -2.5pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.917xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 535 avg 3 books
78 Lineup pending
CLE vs PITMitch Keller · slot 3
--Valinor 19.8%market -2.5pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.917xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 405 avg 3 books
79 Lineup pending
MIA vs SFLogan Webb · slot 2
--Valinor 11.8%market -2.7pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.993xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 750 avg 3 books
80 Lineup pending
CWS vs NYMSean Manaea · slot 4
--Valinor 14.3%market -2.8pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.924xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 600 avg 3 books
81 Lineup pending
TB vs SDDylan Cease · slot 6
--Valinor 13.2%market -2.9pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.010xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 660 avg 3 books
82 Lineup pending
TB vs SDDylan Cease · slot 3
--Valinor 15.0%market -3.2pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.010xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 565 avg 3 books
83 Lineup pending
TB vs SDDylan Cease · slot 5
--Valinor 15.6%market -3.3pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.010xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 540 avg 3 books
84
David Fry CLE
Lineup pending
CLE vs PITMitch Keller · slot 5
--Valinor 17.0%market -3.3pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.917xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
85 Lineup pending
MIA vs SFLogan Webb · slot 5
--Valinor 17.7%market -3.4pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.993xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
86 Lineup pending
MIA vs SFLogan Webb · slot 3
--Valinor 18.4%market -3.6pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.993xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
87 Lineup pending
CWS vs NYMSean Manaea · slot 3
--Valinor 25.6%market -3.6pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.924xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 290 avg 3 books
88 Lineup pending
MIA vs SFLogan Webb · slot 7
--Valinor 13.8%market -3.7pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.993xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 625 avg 3 books
89 Lineup pending
MIA vs SFLogan Webb · slot 6
--Valinor 14.1%market -3.7pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.993xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 610 avg 3 books
90 Lineup pending
TB vs SDDylan Cease · slot 2
--Valinor 15.6%market -4.0pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.010xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 540 avg 3 books
91 Lineup pending
MIA vs SFLogan Webb · slot 4
--Valinor 15.8%market -4.1pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.993xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 535 avg 3 books
92 Lineup pending
MIA vs SFLogan Webb · slot 1
--Valinor 8.0%market -4.9pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.993xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
93 Lineup pending
TB vs SDDylan Cease · slot 1
--Valinor 8.0%market -5.3pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.010xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
94 Lineup pending
TB vs SDDylan Cease · slot 4
--Valinor 24.7%market -5.6pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.010xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 305 avg 3 books

Data context

0 sample flags
Status0roster/transaction rows
Lineups0confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.