Mithrandir Metrics

HR BOARD 2024-09-05 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER armed; waiting on confirmed lineups

Lane Health 2026-09-01

Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable

Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable

Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research

Selective Lane

Valinor is available, but quiet today.

Valinor covers Home Run Market Gaps as a selective lane but didn't qualify any rows on today's slate. Try Palantir or check back tomorrow.

Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.

Lineups not posted

The in-lineup filter is armed, but no confirmed lineup artifact exists for this date yet. The board is showing the projected pool honestly.

Home-run board · largest Valinor gap versus market

#	Player	Matchup	Sim	Implied	Gap	Three lanes · P/F/V	Spread	Park	Weather	Recent	Best line
01	Matt Wallner MIN Lineup pending	MIN vs TBTaj Bradley · slot 2	--Valinor	21.4%market	+6.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.024xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 350 avg 3 books
02	Ronald Acuña Jr. ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs COLAustin Gomber · slot 1	--Valinor	20.0%market	+5.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.007xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 380 avg 3 books
03	Marcell Ozuna PIT Lineup pending	PIT vs WSHJake Irvin · slot 2	--Valinor	21.1%market	+5.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.957xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 355 avg 3 books
04	Riley Greene DET Lineup pending	DET vs SDMartín Pérez · slot 4	--Valinor	18.0%market	+4.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.965xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 435 avg 3 books
05	Austin Riley ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs COLAustin Gomber · slot 4	--Valinor	17.2%market	+4.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.007xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 460 avg 3 books
06	Josh Bell MIN Lineup pending	MIN vs TBTaj Bradley · slot 4	--Valinor	15.3%market	+4.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.024xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 530 avg 3 books
07	Rafael Devers SF Lineup pending	SF vs AZMerrill Kelly · slot 2	--Valinor	20.0%market	+3.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.982xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 380 avg 3 books
08	Jj Bleday CIN Lineup pending	CIN vs HOUHunter Brown · slot 6	--Valinor	14.1%market	+3.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.081xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 580 avg 3 books
09	Ozzie Albies ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs COLAustin Gomber · slot 5	--Valinor	13.5%market	+3.5pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.007xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 610 avg 3 books
10	Michael Harris II ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs COLAustin Gomber · slot 8	--Valinor	13.0%market	+2.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.007xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 640 avg 3 books
11	Bryan Reynolds PIT Lineup pending	PIT vs WSHJake Irvin · slot 5	--Valinor	13.5%market	+0.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.957xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 610 avg 3 books
12	Sean Murphy ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs COLAustin Gomber · slot 7	--Valinor	16.3%market	+0.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.007xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 490 avg 3 books
13	Elly De La Cruz CIN Lineup pending	CIN vs HOUHunter Brown · slot 1	--Valinor	15.3%market	-0.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.081xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 530 avg 3 books
14	Trevor Larnach MIN Lineup pending	MIN vs TBTaj Bradley · slot 7	--Valinor	13.8%market	-0.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.024xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 625 avg 3 books
15	Tj Friedl CIN Lineup pending	CIN vs HOUHunter Brown · slot 2	--Valinor	13.3%market	-0.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.081xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 625 avg 3 books
16	Will Benson CIN Lineup pending	CIN vs HOUHunter Brown · slot 7	--Valinor	15.3%market	-0.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.081xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 530 avg 3 books
17	Drake Baldwin ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs COLAustin Gomber · slot 3	--Valinor	17.6%market	-0.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.007xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 450 avg 3 books
18	Mike Yastrzemski ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs COLAustin Gomber · slot 6	--Valinor	14.6%market	-0.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.007xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 560 avg 3 books
19	Ryan O'Hearn PIT Lineup pending	PIT vs WSHJake Irvin · slot 3	--Valinor	14.0%market	-0.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.957xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 585 avg 3 books
20	Oneil Cruz PIT Lineup pending	PIT vs WSHJake Irvin · slot 9	--Valinor	13.3%market	-0.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.957xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 625 avg 3 books
21	Tyler Soderstrom ATH Lineup pending	ATH vs SEABryan Woo · slot 5	--Valinor	15.7%market	-0.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.000xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 515 avg 3 books
22	Jonathan Aranda TB Lineup pending	TB vs MINPablo López · slot 3	--Valinor	14.5%market	-0.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.024xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 565 avg 3 books
23	Spencer Horwitz PIT Lineup pending	PIT vs WSHJake Irvin · slot 6	--Valinor	13.3%market	-0.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.957xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 650 avg 3 books
24	Jake Fraley TB Lineup pending	TB vs MINPablo López · slot 6	--Valinor	12.7%market	-0.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.024xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 660 avg 3 books
25	Cedric Mullins TB Lineup pending	TB vs MINPablo López · slot 5	--Valinor	15.1%market	-0.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.024xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 540 avg 3 books
26	Lawrence Butler ATH Lineup pending	ATH vs SEABryan Woo · slot 4	--Valinor	16.5%market	-0.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.000xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 485 avg 3 books
27	Brandon Lowe PIT Lineup pending	PIT vs WSHJake Irvin · slot 4	--Valinor	21.0%market	-1.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.957xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 360 avg 3 books
28	Luke Keaschall MIN Lineup pending	MIN vs TBTaj Bradley · slot 1	--Valinor	12.2%market	-1.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.024xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 690 avg 3 books
29	Nick Kurtz ATH Lineup pending	ATH vs SEABryan Woo · slot 1	--Valinor	27.6%market	-1.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.000xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 250 avg 3 books
30	Ryan Jeffers MIN Lineup pending	MIN vs TBTaj Bradley · slot 6	--Valinor	14.1%market	-1.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.024xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 610 avg 3 books
31	Jahmai Jones DET Lineup pending	DET vs SDMartín Pérez · slot 2	--Valinor	16.8%market	-1.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.965xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 475 avg 3 books
32	Dillon Dingler DET Lineup pending	DET vs SDMartín Pérez · slot 7	--Valinor	11.9%market	-1.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.965xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 740 avg 3 books
33	Keibert Ruiz WSH Lineup pending	WSH vs PITBailey Falter · slot 5	--Valinor	10.7%market	-1.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.957xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 795 avg 3 books
34	Byron Buxton MIN Lineup pending	MIN vs TBTaj Bradley · slot 3	--Valinor	22.8%market	-1.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.024xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 325 avg 3 books
35	Dylan Crews WSH Lineup pending	WSH vs PITBailey Falter · slot 7	--Valinor	12.4%market	-1.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.957xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 705 avg 3 books
36	Royce Lewis MIN Lineup pending	MIN vs TBTaj Bradley · slot 5	--Valinor	17.9%market	-1.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.024xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 440 avg 3 books
37	Spencer Steer CIN Lineup pending	CIN vs HOUHunter Brown · slot 4	--Valinor	14.6%market	-1.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.081xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 560 avg 3 books
38	Tyler Stephenson CIN Lineup pending	CIN vs HOUHunter Brown · slot 5	--Valinor	14.5%market	-1.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.081xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 565 avg 3 books
39	Gavin Lux TB Lineup pending	TB vs MINPablo López · slot 7	--Valinor	7.7%market	-1.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.024xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
40	Corbin Carroll AZ Lineup pending	AZ vs SFBlake Snell · slot 1	--Valinor	18.1%market	-1.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.982xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 435 avg 3 books
41	Matt Olson ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs COLAustin Gomber · slot 2	--Valinor	21.2%market	-1.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.007xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 355 avg 3 books
42	Spencer Torkelson DET Lineup pending	DET vs SDMartín Pérez · slot 5	--Valinor	17.4%market	-1.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.965xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 455 avg 3 books
43	Jung Hoo Lee SF Lineup pending	SF vs AZMerrill Kelly · slot 7	--Valinor	7.7%market	-1.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.982xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
44	Joey Bart PIT Lineup pending	PIT vs WSHJake Irvin · slot 7	--Valinor	10.4%market	-1.5pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.957xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 825 avg 3 books
45	Jacob Wilson ATH Lineup pending	ATH vs SEABryan Woo · slot 6	--Valinor	9.9%market	-1.5pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.000xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 870 avg 3 books
46	Austin Wynns ATH Lineup pending	ATH vs SEABryan Woo · slot 7	--Valinor	12.3%market	-1.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.000xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 715 avg 3 books
47	Eugenio Suárez CIN Lineup pending	CIN vs HOUHunter Brown · slot 3	--Valinor	22.2%market	-1.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.081xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 335 avg 3 books
48	José Tena WSH Lineup pending	WSH vs PITBailey Falter · slot 6	--Valinor	7.8%market	-1.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.957xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 1130 avg 3 books
49	Lourdes Gurriel Jr. AZ Lineup pending	AZ vs SFBlake Snell · slot 4	--Valinor	15.2%market	-1.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.982xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 535 avg 3 books
50	Colt Keith DET Lineup pending	DET vs SDMartín Pérez · slot 6	--Valinor	11.2%market	-1.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.965xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 755 avg 3 books
51	Geraldo Perdomo AZ Lineup pending	AZ vs SFBlake Snell · slot 3	--Valinor	9.8%market	-1.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.982xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 880 avg 3 books
52	Yandy Díaz TB Lineup pending	TB vs MINPablo López · slot 2	--Valinor	15.6%market	-1.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.024xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 540 avg 3 books
53	Zach McKinstry DET Lineup pending	DET vs SDMartín Pérez · slot 1	--Valinor	10.0%market	-1.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.965xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 865 avg 3 books
54	Daylen Lile WSH Lineup pending	WSH vs PITBailey Falter · slot 3	--Valinor	12.7%market	-1.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.957xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 690 avg 3 books
55	Tyler Fitzgerald SF Lineup pending	SF vs AZMerrill Kelly · slot 6	--Valinor	13.1%market	-2.0pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.982xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 635 avg 3 books
56	Christopher Morel MIA Lineup pending	MIA vs PHIRanger Suarez · slot 5	--Valinor	17.7%market	-2.0pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.905xHR pf	Pitcher-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
57	Luis García Jr. WSH Lineup pending	WSH vs PITBailey Falter · slot 4	--Valinor	13.7%market	-2.0pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.957xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 630 avg 3 books
58	Shea Langeliers ATH Lineup pending	ATH vs SEABryan Woo · slot 3	--Valinor	23.0%market	-2.0pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.000xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 335 avg 3 books
59	Cj Abrams WSH Lineup pending	WSH vs PITBailey Falter · slot 1	--Valinor	14.7%market	-2.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.957xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 580 avg 3 books
60	Heliot Ramos SF Lineup pending	SF vs AZMerrill Kelly · slot 5	--Valinor	15.0%market	-2.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.982xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 565 avg 3 books
61	Brent Rooker ATH Lineup pending	ATH vs SEABryan Woo · slot 2	--Valinor	22.7%market	-2.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.000xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 340 avg 3 books
62	Junior Caminero TB Lineup pending	TB vs MINPablo López · slot 4	--Valinor	24.7%market	-2.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.024xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 305 avg 3 books
63	Luis Arraez SF Lineup pending	SF vs AZMerrill Kelly · slot 1	--Valinor	8.0%market	-2.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.982xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
64	James Wood WSH Lineup pending	WSH vs PITBailey Falter · slot 2	--Valinor	17.9%market	-2.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.957xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 460 avg 3 books
65	Matt Chapman SF Lineup pending	SF vs AZMerrill Kelly · slot 3	--Valinor	17.0%market	-2.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.982xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
66	Zack Gelof ATH Lineup pending	ATH vs SEABryan Woo · slot 9	--Valinor	13.9%market	-2.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.000xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 620 avg 3 books
67	Willy Adames SF Lineup pending	SF vs AZMerrill Kelly · slot 4	--Valinor	18.4%market	-2.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.982xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
68	Jake Mangum PIT Lineup pending	PIT vs WSHJake Irvin · slot 1	--Valinor	8.0%market	-2.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.957xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
69	Carlos Santana AZ Lineup pending	AZ vs SFBlake Snell · slot 5	--Valinor	14.9%market	-2.5pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.982xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 570 avg 3 books
70	Kerry Carpenter DET Lineup pending	DET vs SDMartín Pérez · slot 3	--Valinor	22.0%market	-2.5pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.965xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 355 avg 3 books
71	Heriberto Hernández MIA Lineup pending	MIA vs PHIRanger Suarez · slot 6	--Valinor	14.1%market	-2.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.905xHR pf	Pitcher-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 610 avg 3 books
72	Connor Norby MIA Lineup pending	MIA vs PHIRanger Suarez · slot 7	--Valinor	13.8%market	-2.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.905xHR pf	Pitcher-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 625 avg 3 books
73	Agustín Ramírez MIA Lineup pending	MIA vs PHIRanger Suarez · slot 4	--Valinor	15.8%market	-3.0pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.905xHR pf	Pitcher-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 535 avg 3 books
74	Adrian Del Castillo AZ Lineup pending	AZ vs SFBlake Snell · slot 7	--Valinor	14.5%market	-3.0pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.982xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 590 avg 3 books
75	Pavin Smith AZ Lineup pending	AZ vs SFBlake Snell · slot 6	--Valinor	14.8%market	-3.0pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.982xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 575 avg 3 books
76	Jakob Marsee MIA Lineup pending	MIA vs PHIRanger Suarez · slot 2	--Valinor	11.8%market	-3.0pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.905xHR pf	Pitcher-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 750 avg 3 books
77	Kyle Stowers MIA Lineup pending	MIA vs PHIRanger Suarez · slot 3	--Valinor	18.4%market	-4.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.905xHR pf	Pitcher-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
78	Ketel Marte AZ Lineup pending	AZ vs SFBlake Snell · slot 2	--Valinor	22.0%market	-4.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.982xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 355 avg 3 books
79	Chandler Simpson TB Lineup pending	TB vs MINPablo López · slot 1	--Valinor	8.0%market	-4.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.024xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
80	Xavier Edwards MIA Lineup pending	MIA vs PHIRanger Suarez · slot 1	--Valinor	8.0%market	-4.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.905xHR pf	Pitcher-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books

Top saved signals

5 value rows

01 Matt WallnerMIN vs TB · FanDuel

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp 02 Marcell OzunaPIT vs WSH · FanDuel

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp 03 Ronald Acuña Jr.ATL vs COL · FanDuel

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp 04 Rafael DeversSF vs AZ · FanDuel

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp 05 Riley GreeneDET vs SD · FanDuel

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp

Data context

0 sample flags

Status0roster/transaction rows

Lineups0confirmed starters

Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.