Mithrandir Metrics

HR BOARD 2024-09-09 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER armed; waiting on confirmed lineups

Lane Health 2026-09-01

Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable

Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable

Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research

Selective Lane

Valinor is available, but quiet today.

Valinor covers Home Run Market Gaps as a selective lane but didn't qualify any rows on today's slate. Try Palantir or check back tomorrow.

Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.

Lineups not posted

The in-lineup filter is armed, but no confirmed lineup artifact exists for this date yet. The board is showing the projected pool honestly.

Home-run board · largest Valinor gap versus market

#	Player	Matchup	Sim	Implied	Gap	Three lanes · P/F/V	Spread	Park	Weather	Recent	Best line
01	Tyler O'Neill BAL Lineup pending	BAL vs BOSBrayan Bello · slot 3	--Valinor	20.0%market	+5.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.079xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 380 avg 3 books
02	Jazz Chisholm Jr. NYY Lineup pending	NYY vs KCBrady Singer · slot 5	--Valinor	18.8%market	+5.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.109xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 410 avg 3 books
03	Salvador Perez KC Lineup pending	KC vs NYYCarlos Rodón · slot 4	--Valinor	17.8%market	+5.0pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.109xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 440 avg 3 books
04	Bobby Witt Jr. KC Lineup pending	KC vs NYYCarlos Rodón · slot 1	--Valinor	17.5%market	+4.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.109xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 450 avg 3 books
05	Freddie Freeman LAD Lineup pending	LAD vs CHCKyle Hendricks · slot 2	--Valinor	16.3%market	+4.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.022xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 490 avg 3 books
06	Ronald Acuña Jr. ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs CINNick Martinez · slot 1	--Valinor	20.0%market	+4.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.973xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 380 avg 3 books
07	Mookie Betts LAD Lineup pending	LAD vs CHCKyle Hendricks · slot 5	--Valinor	16.0%market	+4.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.022xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 500 avg 3 books
08	Giancarlo Stanton NYY Lineup pending	NYY vs KCBrady Singer · slot 4	--Valinor	24.3%market	+3.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.109xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 295 avg 3 books
09	Jj Bleday CIN Lineup pending	CIN vs ATLCharlie Morton · slot 6	--Valinor	14.1%market	+3.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.973xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 580 avg 3 books
10	Shohei Ohtani LAD Lineup pending	LAD vs CHCKyle Hendricks · slot 1	--Valinor	28.6%market	+3.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.022xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 235 avg 3 books
11	Austin Riley ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs CINNick Martinez · slot 4	--Valinor	17.2%market	+3.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.973xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 460 avg 3 books
12	Ozzie Albies ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs CINNick Martinez · slot 5	--Valinor	13.5%market	+3.5pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.973xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 610 avg 3 books
13	Jesús Sánchez TOR Lineup pending	TOR vs NYMTylor Megill · slot 5	--Valinor	13.5%market	+3.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.992xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 615 avg 3 books
14	Lane Thomas KC Lineup pending	KC vs NYYCarlos Rodón · slot 5	--Valinor	14.4%market	+3.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.109xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 570 avg 3 books
15	Aaron Judge NYY Lineup pending	NYY vs KCBrady Singer · slot 2	--Valinor	29.6%market	+3.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.109xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 225 avg 3 books
16	Anthony Santander TOR Lineup pending	TOR vs NYMTylor Megill · slot 3	--Valinor	20.1%market	+2.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.992xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 380 avg 3 books
17	Michael Harris II ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs CINNick Martinez · slot 8	--Valinor	13.0%market	+1.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.973xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 640 avg 3 books
18	Gunnar Henderson BAL Lineup pending	BAL vs BOSBrayan Bello · slot 1	--Valinor	17.5%market	+1.0pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.079xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 450 avg 3 books
19	Ben Rice NYY Lineup pending	NYY vs KCBrady Singer · slot 6	--Valinor	17.3%market	+0.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.109xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 455 avg 3 books
20	Isaac Collins KC Lineup pending	KC vs NYYCarlos Rodón · slot 2	--Valinor	10.0%market	+0.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.109xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 865 avg 3 books
21	Jonathan India KC Lineup pending	KC vs NYYCarlos Rodón · slot 6	--Valinor	10.1%market	+0.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.109xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 860 avg 3 books
22	Vinnie Pasquantino KC Lineup pending	KC vs NYYCarlos Rodón · slot 3	--Valinor	17.2%market	+0.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.109xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 460 avg 3 books
23	Trent Grisham NYY Lineup pending	NYY vs KCBrady Singer · slot 7	--Valinor	17.0%market	+0.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.109xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 465 avg 3 books
24	Cody Bellinger NYY Lineup pending	NYY vs KCBrady Singer · slot 3	--Valinor	17.0%market	+0.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.109xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 465 avg 3 books
25	Starling Marte KC Lineup pending	KC vs NYYCarlos Rodón · slot 7	--Valinor	9.4%market	+0.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.109xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 925 avg 3 books
26	Will Smith LAD Lineup pending	LAD vs CHCKyle Hendricks · slot 9	--Valinor	13.9%market	+0.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.022xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 590 avg 3 books
27	Colton Cowser BAL Lineup pending	BAL vs BOSBrayan Bello · slot 8	--Valinor	15.7%market	-0.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.079xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 515 avg 3 books
28	Jordan Westburg BAL Lineup pending	BAL vs BOSBrayan Bello · slot 5	--Valinor	16.1%market	-0.5pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.079xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 500 avg 3 books
29	Max Muncy LAD Lineup pending	LAD vs CHCKyle Hendricks · slot 6	--Valinor	20.1%market	-0.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.022xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 380 avg 3 books
30	Adley Rutschman BAL Lineup pending	BAL vs BOSBrayan Bello · slot 6	--Valinor	12.7%market	-0.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.079xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 690 avg 3 books
31	Daulton Varsho TOR Lineup pending	TOR vs NYMTylor Megill · slot 4	--Valinor	18.6%market	-0.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.992xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 420 avg 3 books
32	José Caballero NYY Lineup pending	NYY vs KCBrady Singer · slot 1	--Valinor	9.1%market	-1.0pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.109xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 960 avg 3 books
33	Kyle Tucker LAD Lineup pending	LAD vs CHCKyle Hendricks · slot 3	--Valinor	19.1%market	-1.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.022xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 405 avg 3 books
34	Yandy Díaz TB Lineup pending	TB vs PHICristopher Sánchez · slot 2	--Valinor	15.1%market	-1.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.076xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 540 avg 3 books
35	Taylor Ward BAL Lineup pending	BAL vs BOSBrayan Bello · slot 4	--Valinor	18.4%market	-1.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.079xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 425 avg 3 books
36	Mike Yastrzemski ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs CINNick Martinez · slot 6	--Valinor	14.6%market	-1.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.973xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 560 avg 3 books
37	Junior Caminero TB Lineup pending	TB vs PHICristopher Sánchez · slot 4	--Valinor	24.1%market	-1.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.076xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 300 avg 3 books
38	Drake Baldwin ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs CINNick Martinez · slot 3	--Valinor	17.6%market	-1.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.973xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 450 avg 3 books
39	Andy Pages LAD Lineup pending	LAD vs CHCKyle Hendricks · slot 7	--Valinor	14.5%market	-1.5pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.022xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 565 avg 3 books
40	Elly De La Cruz CIN Lineup pending	CIN vs ATLCharlie Morton · slot 1	--Valinor	15.3%market	-1.5pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.973xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 530 avg 3 books
41	Nathan Lukes TOR Lineup pending	TOR vs NYMTylor Megill · slot 6	--Valinor	10.4%market	-1.5pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.992xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 825 avg 3 books
42	Tj Friedl CIN Lineup pending	CIN vs ATLCharlie Morton · slot 2	--Valinor	13.3%market	-1.5pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.973xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 625 avg 3 books
43	Will Benson CIN Lineup pending	CIN vs ATLCharlie Morton · slot 7	--Valinor	15.3%market	-1.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.973xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 530 avg 3 books
44	Pete Alonso BAL Lineup pending	BAL vs BOSBrayan Bello · slot 2	--Valinor	23.3%market	-1.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.079xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 315 avg 3 books
45	Teoscar Hernández LAD Lineup pending	LAD vs CHCKyle Hendricks · slot 4	--Valinor	18.6%market	-1.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.022xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 420 avg 3 books
46	Jake Fraley TB Lineup pending	TB vs PHICristopher Sánchez · slot 6	--Valinor	12.7%market	-1.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.076xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 660 avg 3 books
47	Ryan Mountcastle BAL Lineup pending	BAL vs BOSBrayan Bello · slot 7	--Valinor	11.4%market	-1.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.079xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 745 avg 3 books
48	Gavin Lux TB Lineup pending	TB vs PHICristopher Sánchez · slot 7	--Valinor	7.7%market	-1.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.076xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
49	Jonathan Aranda TB Lineup pending	TB vs PHICristopher Sánchez · slot 3	--Valinor	15.0%market	-1.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.076xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 565 avg 3 books
50	Cedric Mullins TB Lineup pending	TB vs PHICristopher Sánchez · slot 5	--Valinor	15.6%market	-1.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.076xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 540 avg 3 books
51	Matt Olson ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs CINNick Martinez · slot 2	--Valinor	21.7%market	-2.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.973xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 360 avg 3 books
52	Sean Murphy ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs CINNick Martinez · slot 7	--Valinor	17.1%market	-2.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.973xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 485 avg 3 books
53	Davis Schneider TOR Lineup pending	TOR vs NYMTylor Megill · slot 7	--Valinor	16.0%market	-2.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.992xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 525 avg 3 books
54	Spencer Steer CIN Lineup pending	CIN vs ATLCharlie Morton · slot 4	--Valinor	15.2%market	-2.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.973xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 560 avg 3 books
55	Tyler Stephenson CIN Lineup pending	CIN vs ATLCharlie Morton · slot 5	--Valinor	15.0%market	-2.5pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.973xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 565 avg 3 books
56	George Springer TOR Lineup pending	TOR vs NYMTylor Megill · slot 1	--Valinor	18.9%market	-2.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.992xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 430 avg 3 books
57	Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR Lineup pending	TOR vs NYMTylor Megill · slot 2	--Valinor	17.7%market	-2.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.992xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
58	Eugenio Suárez CIN Lineup pending	CIN vs ATLCharlie Morton · slot 3	--Valinor	22.7%market	-3.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.973xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 340 avg 3 books
59	Chandler Simpson TB Lineup pending	TB vs PHICristopher Sánchez · slot 1	--Valinor	8.0%market	-5.0pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.076xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books

Top saved signals

5 value rows

01 Tyler O'NeillBAL vs BOS · FanDuel

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp 02 Shohei OhtaniLAD vs CHC · FanDuel

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp 03 Giancarlo StantonNYY vs KC · FanDuel

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp 04 Aaron JudgeNYY vs KC · FanDuel

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp 05 Ronald Acuña Jr.ATL vs CIN · FanDuel

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp

Data context

0 sample flags

Status0roster/transaction rows

Lineups0confirmed starters

Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.