Mithrandir Metrics
Fangorn lane 2024-09-23 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
44
Matched
132
Lineups
0
HR BOARD 2024-09-23 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER armed; waiting on confirmed lineups
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research

Selective Lane

Fangorn is available, but quiet today.

Fangorn covers Home Run Market Gaps as a selective lane but didn't qualify any rows on today's slate. Try Palantir or check back tomorrow.

Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Lineups not posted

The in-lineup filter is armed, but no confirmed lineup artifact exists for this date yet. The board is showing the projected pool honestly.

Home-run board · largest Fangorn gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01
Yordan Alvarez HOU
Lineup pending
HOU vs SEABryce Miller · slot 2
 --Fangorn 20.9%market +5.9pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.993xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 360 avg 3 books
02
Carlos Correa HOU
Lineup pending
HOU vs SEABryce Miller · slot 6
 --Fangorn 11.9%market +2.8pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.993xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 710 avg 3 books
03
Jesús Sánchez TOR
Lineup pending
TOR vs BOSTanner Houck · slot 5
 --Fangorn 13.5%market +2.7pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.931xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 615 avg 3 books
04
Jarren Duran BOS
Lineup pending
BOS vs TORChris Bassitt · slot 1
 --Fangorn 12.0%market +2.3pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.931xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 705 avg 3 books
05
Rafael Devers SF
Lineup pending
SF vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 2
 --Fangorn 20.0%market +2.1pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.000xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 380 avg 3 books
06
Yainer Diaz HOU
Lineup pending
HOU vs SEABryce Miller · slot 7
 --Fangorn 14.3%market +1.9pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.993xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 570 avg 3 books
07
Anthony Santander TOR
Lineup pending
TOR vs BOSTanner Houck · slot 3
 --Fangorn 20.1%market +1.6pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.931xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 380 avg 3 books
08
Michael Busch CHC
Lineup pending
CHC vs PHIAaron Nola · slot 3
 --Fangorn 19.2%market +0.5pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.017xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 400 avg 3 books
09
Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC
Lineup pending
CHC vs PHIAaron Nola · slot 9
 --Fangorn 14.8%market -0.1pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.017xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 555 avg 3 books
10
Ian Happ CHC
Lineup pending
CHC vs PHIAaron Nola · slot 4
 --Fangorn 15.1%market -0.2pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.017xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 540 avg 3 books
11
Masataka Yoshida BOS
Lineup pending
BOS vs TORChris Bassitt · slot 7
 --Fangorn 10.0%market -0.3pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.931xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 860 avg 3 books
12
Dansby Swanson CHC
Lineup pending
CHC vs PHIAaron Nola · slot 6
 --Fangorn 13.9%market -0.4pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.017xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 595 avg 3 books
13
Carson Kelly CHC
Lineup pending
CHC vs PHIAaron Nola · slot 7
 --Fangorn 13.2%market -1.0pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.017xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 630 avg 3 books
14
Alex Bregman CHC
Lineup pending
CHC vs PHIAaron Nola · slot 5
 --Fangorn 15.5%market -1.2pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.017xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 525 avg 3 books
15
Brendan Donovan SEA
Lineup pending
SEA vs HOUHunter Brown · slot 6
 --Fangorn 10.3%market -1.4pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.993xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 835 avg 3 books
16
Josh Naylor SEA
Lineup pending
SEA vs HOUHunter Brown · slot 4
 --Fangorn 16.7%market -1.4pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.993xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 480 avg 3 books
17
Luke Raley SEA
Lineup pending
SEA vs HOUHunter Brown · slot 8
 --Fangorn 15.1%market -1.5pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.993xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 540 avg 3 books
18
Tyler Fitzgerald SF
Lineup pending
SF vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 6
 --Fangorn 13.1%market -1.5pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.000xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 635 avg 3 books
19
Seiya Suzuki CHC
Lineup pending
CHC vs PHIAaron Nola · slot 2
 --Fangorn 18.1%market -1.5pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.017xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 435 avg 3 books
20
Dominic Canzone SEA
Lineup pending
SEA vs HOUHunter Brown · slot 7
 --Fangorn 15.7%market -1.6pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.993xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 515 avg 3 books
21
Heliot Ramos SF
Lineup pending
SF vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 5
 --Fangorn 14.5%market -1.6pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.000xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 565 avg 3 books
22
Nico Hoerner CHC
Lineup pending
CHC vs PHIAaron Nola · slot 1
 --Fangorn 7.7%market -1.7pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.017xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
23
Christian Walker HOU
Lineup pending
HOU vs SEABryce Miller · slot 4
 --Fangorn 19.1%market -1.7pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.993xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 425 avg 3 books
24
Jeremy Peña HOU
Lineup pending
HOU vs SEABryce Miller · slot 1
 --Fangorn 12.2%market -1.7pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.993xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 720 avg 3 books
25
Jose Altuve HOU
Lineup pending
HOU vs SEABryce Miller · slot 3
 --Fangorn 16.0%market -1.7pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.993xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 505 avg 3 books
26
Cal Raleigh SEA
Lineup pending
SEA vs HOUHunter Brown · slot 3
 --Fangorn 27.0%market -1.8pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.993xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 270 avg 3 books
27
Matt Chapman SF
Lineup pending
SF vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 3
 --Fangorn 17.0%market -1.9pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.000xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
28
Daulton Varsho TOR
Lineup pending
TOR vs BOSTanner Houck · slot 4
 --Fangorn 19.2%market -1.9pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.931xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
29
Jung Hoo Lee SF
Lineup pending
SF vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 7
 --Fangorn 7.7%market -2.0pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.000xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
30
Nathan Lukes TOR
Lineup pending
TOR vs BOSTanner Houck · slot 6
 --Fangorn 10.4%market -2.0pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.931xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 825 avg 3 books
31
Roman Anthony BOS
Lineup pending
BOS vs TORChris Bassitt · slot 2
 --Fangorn 14.0%market -2.1pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.931xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 615 avg 3 books
32
Willy Adames SF
Lineup pending
SF vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 4
 --Fangorn 18.4%market -2.1pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.000xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
33
Randy Arozarena SEA
Lineup pending
SEA vs HOUHunter Brown · slot 5
 --Fangorn 15.2%market -2.2pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.993xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 560 avg 3 books
34
Rob Refsnyder SEA
Lineup pending
SEA vs HOUHunter Brown · slot 2
 --Fangorn 15.3%market -2.2pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.993xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 555 avg 3 books
35
Wilyer Abreu BOS
Lineup pending
BOS vs TORChris Bassitt · slot 4
 --Fangorn 18.4%market -2.3pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.931xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
36
Isaac Paredes HOU
Lineup pending
HOU vs SEABryce Miller · slot 5
 --Fangorn 17.2%market -2.5pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.993xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 480 avg 3 books
37
Triston Casas BOS
Lineup pending
BOS vs TORChris Bassitt · slot 5
 --Fangorn 18.4%market -2.6pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.931xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
38
Romy Gonzalez BOS
Lineup pending
BOS vs TORChris Bassitt · slot 6
 --Fangorn 12.4%market -2.6pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.931xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 705 avg 3 books
39
Julio Rodríguez SEA
Lineup pending
SEA vs HOUHunter Brown · slot 1
 --Fangorn 18.9%market -2.7pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.993xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 430 avg 3 books
40
Luis Arraez SF
Lineup pending
SF vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 1
 --Fangorn 8.0%market -2.8pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.000xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
41
Davis Schneider TOR
Lineup pending
TOR vs BOSTanner Houck · slot 7
 --Fangorn 16.0%market -3.1pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.931xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 525 avg 3 books
42
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR
Lineup pending
TOR vs BOSTanner Houck · slot 2
 --Fangorn 17.7%market -3.7pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.931xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
43
George Springer TOR
Lineup pending
TOR vs BOSTanner Houck · slot 1
 --Fangorn 18.9%market -3.7pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.931xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 430 avg 3 books
44
Willson Contreras BOS
Lineup pending
BOS vs TORChris Bassitt · slot 3
 --Fangorn 17.2%market -4.3pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.931xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 480 avg 3 books

Data context

0 sample flags
Status0roster/transaction rows
Lineups0confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.