Mithrandir Metrics

HR BOARD 2024-09-26 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER armed; waiting on confirmed lineups

Lane Health 2026-09-01

Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable

Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable

Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research

Selective Lane

Fangorn is available, but quiet today.

Fangorn covers Home Run Market Gaps as a selective lane but didn't qualify any rows on today's slate. Try Palantir or check back tomorrow.

Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.

Lineups not posted

The in-lineup filter is armed, but no confirmed lineup artifact exists for this date yet. The board is showing the projected pool honestly.

Home-run board · largest Fangorn gap versus market

#	Player	Matchup	Sim	Implied	Gap	Three lanes · P/F/V	Spread	Park	Weather	Recent	Best line
01	Ronald Acuña Jr. ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs NYMSean Manaea · slot 1	--Fangorn	20.0%market	+5.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.953xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 380 avg 3 books
02	Jazz Chisholm Jr. NYY Lineup pending	NYY vs BALCorbin Burnes · slot 5	--Fangorn	18.8%market	+5.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.100xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 410 avg 3 books
03	Austin Riley ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs NYMSean Manaea · slot 4	--Fangorn	17.2%market	+4.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.953xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 460 avg 3 books
04	Salvador Perez KC Lineup pending	KC vs WSHPatrick Corbin · slot 4	--Fangorn	17.8%market	+4.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.014xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 440 avg 3 books
05	Bobby Witt Jr. KC Lineup pending	KC vs WSHPatrick Corbin · slot 1	--Fangorn	17.5%market	+4.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.014xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 450 avg 3 books
06	Marcell Ozuna PIT Lineup pending	PIT vs MILAaron Civale · slot 2	--Fangorn	21.1%market	+4.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.953xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 355 avg 3 books
07	Alec Burleson STL Lineup pending	STL vs COLKyle Freeland · slot 3	--Fangorn	14.1%market	+3.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.122xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 580 avg 3 books
08	Giancarlo Stanton NYY Lineup pending	NYY vs BALCorbin Burnes · slot 4	--Fangorn	24.3%market	+3.5pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.100xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 295 avg 3 books
09	Juan Soto NYM Lineup pending	NYM vs ATLMax Fried · slot 1	--Fangorn	23.2%market	+3.5pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.953xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 315 avg 3 books
10	Ozzie Albies ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs NYMSean Manaea · slot 5	--Fangorn	13.5%market	+3.5pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.953xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 610 avg 3 books
11	Gary Sánchez MIL Lineup pending	MIL vs PITMitch Keller · slot 6	--Fangorn	16.7%market	+3.0pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.953xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 475 avg 3 books
12	Iván Herrera STL Lineup pending	STL vs COLKyle Freeland · slot 2	--Fangorn	14.6%market	+2.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.122xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 560 avg 3 books
13	Aaron Judge NYY Lineup pending	NYY vs BALCorbin Burnes · slot 2	--Fangorn	29.6%market	+2.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.100xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 225 avg 3 books
14	Lars Nootbaar STL Lineup pending	STL vs COLKyle Freeland · slot 5	--Fangorn	11.6%market	+2.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.122xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 735 avg 3 books
15	Jordan Walker STL Lineup pending	STL vs COLKyle Freeland · slot 7	--Fangorn	10.6%market	+2.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.122xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 815 avg 3 books
16	Nolan Gorman STL Lineup pending	STL vs COLKyle Freeland · slot 4	--Fangorn	18.9%market	+2.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.122xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 410 avg 3 books
17	Ramón Urías STL Lineup pending	STL vs COLKyle Freeland · slot 6	--Fangorn	11.4%market	+2.0pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.122xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 745 avg 3 books
18	Lane Thomas KC Lineup pending	KC vs WSHPatrick Corbin · slot 5	--Fangorn	14.4%market	+1.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.014xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 570 avg 3 books
19	Michael Harris II ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs NYMSean Manaea · slot 8	--Fangorn	13.0%market	+1.0pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.953xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 640 avg 3 books
20	Jorge Polanco NYM Lineup pending	NYM vs ATLMax Fried · slot 4	--Fangorn	17.3%market	+1.0pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.953xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 455 avg 3 books
21	Ben Rice NYY Lineup pending	NYY vs BALCorbin Burnes · slot 6	--Fangorn	17.3%market	+0.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.100xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 455 avg 3 books
22	Bryan Reynolds PIT Lineup pending	PIT vs MILAaron Civale · slot 5	--Fangorn	13.5%market	+0.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.953xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 610 avg 3 books
23	Trent Grisham NYY Lineup pending	NYY vs BALCorbin Burnes · slot 7	--Fangorn	17.0%market	+0.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.100xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 465 avg 3 books
24	Victor Scott II STL Lineup pending	STL vs COLKyle Freeland · slot 1	--Fangorn	7.7%market	+0.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.122xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
25	Cody Bellinger NYY Lineup pending	NYY vs BALCorbin Burnes · slot 3	--Fangorn	17.4%market	-0.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.100xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 455 avg 3 books
26	Luis Robert Jr. NYM Lineup pending	NYM vs ATLMax Fried · slot 9	--Fangorn	15.6%market	-0.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.953xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 520 avg 3 books
27	Jonathan India KC Lineup pending	KC vs WSHPatrick Corbin · slot 6	--Fangorn	10.2%market	-0.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.014xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 845 avg 3 books
28	Isaac Collins KC Lineup pending	KC vs WSHPatrick Corbin · slot 2	--Fangorn	10.1%market	-0.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.014xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 850 avg 3 books
29	Starling Marte KC Lineup pending	KC vs WSHPatrick Corbin · slot 7	--Fangorn	9.6%market	-0.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.014xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 905 avg 3 books
30	José Caballero NYY Lineup pending	NYY vs BALCorbin Burnes · slot 1	--Fangorn	9.1%market	-1.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.100xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 960 avg 3 books
31	Lenyn Sosa CWS Lineup pending	CWS vs LAATyler Anderson · slot 7	--Fangorn	14.0%market	-1.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.955xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 590 avg 3 books
32	Edgar Quero CWS Lineup pending	CWS vs LAATyler Anderson · slot 6	--Fangorn	7.8%market	-1.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.955xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 1125 avg 3 books
33	Christian Yelich MIL Lineup pending	MIL vs PITMitch Keller · slot 2	--Fangorn	17.3%market	-1.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.953xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 460 avg 3 books
34	Oneil Cruz PIT Lineup pending	PIT vs MILAaron Civale · slot 9	--Fangorn	13.3%market	-1.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.953xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 625 avg 3 books
35	Austin Hays CWS Lineup pending	CWS vs LAATyler Anderson · slot 5	--Fangorn	12.8%market	-1.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.955xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 650 avg 3 books
36	Ryan O'Hearn PIT Lineup pending	PIT vs MILAaron Civale · slot 3	--Fangorn	14.0%market	-1.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.953xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 585 avg 3 books
37	Chase Meidroth CWS Lineup pending	CWS vs LAATyler Anderson · slot 1	--Fangorn	7.7%market	-1.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.955xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
38	Keibert Ruiz WSH Lineup pending	WSH vs KCMichael Wacha · slot 5	--Fangorn	10.7%market	-1.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.014xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 795 avg 3 books
39	Spencer Horwitz PIT Lineup pending	PIT vs MILAaron Civale · slot 6	--Fangorn	13.3%market	-1.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.953xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 650 avg 3 books
40	José Tena WSH Lineup pending	WSH vs KCMichael Wacha · slot 6	--Fangorn	7.8%market	-1.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.014xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 1130 avg 3 books
41	Daylen Lile WSH Lineup pending	WSH vs KCMichael Wacha · slot 3	--Fangorn	12.7%market	-1.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.014xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 690 avg 3 books
42	Luis García Jr. WSH Lineup pending	WSH vs KCMichael Wacha · slot 4	--Fangorn	13.7%market	-1.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.014xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 630 avg 3 books
43	James Wood WSH Lineup pending	WSH vs KCMichael Wacha · slot 2	--Fangorn	17.3%market	-1.5pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.014xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 460 avg 3 books
44	Cj Abrams WSH Lineup pending	WSH vs KCMichael Wacha · slot 1	--Fangorn	14.2%market	-1.5pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.014xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 580 avg 3 books
45	Vinnie Pasquantino KC Lineup pending	KC vs WSHPatrick Corbin · slot 3	--Fangorn	17.6%market	-1.5pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.014xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 450 avg 3 books
46	Sean Murphy ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs NYMSean Manaea · slot 7	--Fangorn	16.7%market	-1.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.953xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 480 avg 3 books
47	Brandon Lowe PIT Lineup pending	PIT vs MILAaron Civale · slot 4	--Fangorn	21.5%market	-1.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.953xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 365 avg 3 books
48	Brice Turang MIL Lineup pending	MIL vs PITMitch Keller · slot 1	--Fangorn	10.4%market	-1.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.953xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 825 avg 3 books
49	Jake Bauers MIL Lineup pending	MIL vs PITMitch Keller · slot 7	--Fangorn	15.2%market	-1.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.953xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 560 avg 3 books
50	Joey Bart PIT Lineup pending	PIT vs MILAaron Civale · slot 7	--Fangorn	10.4%market	-1.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.953xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 825 avg 3 books
51	Kyle Teel CWS Lineup pending	CWS vs LAATyler Anderson · slot 2	--Fangorn	14.1%market	-1.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.955xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 610 avg 3 books
52	Andrew Vaughn MIL Lineup pending	MIL vs PITMitch Keller · slot 5	--Fangorn	14.3%market	-1.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.953xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 600 avg 3 books
53	Dylan Crews WSH Lineup pending	WSH vs KCMichael Wacha · slot 7	--Fangorn	12.4%market	-2.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.014xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 705 avg 3 books
54	William Contreras MIL Lineup pending	MIL vs PITMitch Keller · slot 3	--Fangorn	13.6%market	-2.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.953xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 635 avg 3 books
55	Mike Yastrzemski ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs NYMSean Manaea · slot 6	--Fangorn	15.2%market	-2.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.953xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 560 avg 3 books
56	Andrew Benintendi CWS Lineup pending	CWS vs LAATyler Anderson · slot 4	--Fangorn	14.3%market	-2.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.955xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 600 avg 3 books
57	Gavin Lux TB Lineup pending	TB vs DETReese Olson · slot 7	--Fangorn	8.0%market	-2.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.904xHR pf	Pitcher-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
58	Bo Bichette NYM Lineup pending	NYM vs ATLMax Fried · slot 3	--Fangorn	13.0%market	-2.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.953xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 670 avg 3 books
59	Mark Vientos NYM Lineup pending	NYM vs ATLMax Fried · slot 6	--Fangorn	18.2%market	-2.5pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.953xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 450 avg 3 books
60	Drake Baldwin ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs NYMSean Manaea · slot 3	--Fangorn	18.2%market	-2.5pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.953xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 450 avg 3 books
61	Jake Fraley TB Lineup pending	TB vs DETReese Olson · slot 6	--Fangorn	13.2%market	-2.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.904xHR pf	Pitcher-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 660 avg 3 books
62	Marcus Semien NYM Lineup pending	NYM vs ATLMax Fried · slot 5	--Fangorn	14.4%market	-2.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.953xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 595 avg 3 books
63	Colson Montgomery CWS Lineup pending	CWS vs LAATyler Anderson · slot 3	--Fangorn	25.6%market	-2.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.955xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 290 avg 3 books
64	Jackson Chourio MIL Lineup pending	MIL vs PITMitch Keller · slot 4	--Fangorn	16.1%market	-2.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.953xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 520 avg 3 books
65	Jake Mangum PIT Lineup pending	PIT vs MILAaron Civale · slot 1	--Fangorn	8.0%market	-2.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.953xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
66	Jonathan Aranda TB Lineup pending	TB vs DETReese Olson · slot 3	--Fangorn	15.0%market	-2.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.904xHR pf	Pitcher-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 565 avg 3 books
67	Francisco Alvarez NYM Lineup pending	NYM vs ATLMax Fried · slot 7	--Fangorn	17.2%market	-2.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.953xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 480 avg 3 books
68	Cedric Mullins TB Lineup pending	TB vs DETReese Olson · slot 5	--Fangorn	15.6%market	-3.0pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.904xHR pf	Pitcher-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 540 avg 3 books
69	Matt Olson ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs NYMSean Manaea · slot 2	--Fangorn	21.7%market	-3.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.953xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 360 avg 3 books
70	Brett Baty NYM Lineup pending	NYM vs ATLMax Fried · slot 8	--Fangorn	14.0%market	-3.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.953xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 615 avg 3 books
71	Yandy Díaz TB Lineup pending	TB vs DETReese Olson · slot 2	--Fangorn	15.6%market	-3.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.904xHR pf	Pitcher-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 540 avg 3 books
72	Francisco Lindor NYM Lineup pending	NYM vs ATLMax Fried · slot 2	--Fangorn	19.6%market	-4.0pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.953xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 410 avg 3 books
73	Chandler Simpson TB Lineup pending	TB vs DETReese Olson · slot 1	--Fangorn	8.0%market	-5.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.904xHR pf	Pitcher-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
74	Junior Caminero TB Lineup pending	TB vs DETReese Olson · slot 4	--Fangorn	24.7%market	-5.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.904xHR pf	Pitcher-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 305 avg 3 books

Top saved signals

5 value rows

01 Ronald Acuña Jr.ATL vs NYM · FanDuel

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp 02 Giancarlo StantonNYY vs BAL · FanDuel

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp 03 Marcell OzunaPIT vs MIL · FanDuel

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp 04 Aaron JudgeNYY vs BAL · FanDuel

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp 05 Juan SotoNYM vs ATL · FanDuel

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp

Data context

0 sample flags

Status0roster/transaction rows

Lineups0confirmed starters

Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.