Mithrandir Metrics
Valinor lane 2024-09-30 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
8
Matched
24
Lineups
0
HR BOARD 2024-09-30 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER armed; waiting on confirmed lineups
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research

Selective Lane

Valinor is available, but quiet today.

Valinor covers Home Run Market Gaps as a selective lane but didn't qualify any rows on today's slate. Try Palantir or check back tomorrow.

Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Lineups not posted

The in-lineup filter is armed, but no confirmed lineup artifact exists for this date yet. The board is showing the projected pool honestly.

Home-run board · largest Valinor gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01
Ronald Acuña Jr. ATL
Lineup pending
ATL vs NYMTylor Megill · slot 1
 --Valinor 20.0%market +5.2pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.006xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 380 avg 3 books
02
Austin Riley ATL
Lineup pending
ATL vs NYMTylor Megill · slot 4
 --Valinor 17.2%market +4.3pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.006xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 460 avg 3 books
03
Ozzie Albies ATL
Lineup pending
ATL vs NYMTylor Megill · slot 5
 --Valinor 13.5%market +3.5pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.006xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 610 avg 3 books
04
Michael Harris II ATL
Lineup pending
ATL vs NYMTylor Megill · slot 8
 --Valinor 13.0%market +2.0pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.006xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 640 avg 3 books
05
Mike Yastrzemski ATL
Lineup pending
ATL vs NYMTylor Megill · slot 6
 --Valinor 14.6%market -1.3pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.006xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 560 avg 3 books
06
Drake Baldwin ATL
Lineup pending
ATL vs NYMTylor Megill · slot 3
 --Valinor 17.6%market -1.4pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.006xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 450 avg 3 books
07
Matt Olson ATL
Lineup pending
ATL vs NYMTylor Megill · slot 2
 --Valinor 21.7%market -2.0pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.006xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 360 avg 3 books
08
Sean Murphy ATL
Lineup pending
ATL vs NYMTylor Megill · slot 7
 --Valinor 17.1%market -2.2pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.006xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 485 avg 3 books

Data context

0 sample flags
Status0roster/transaction rows
Lineups0confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.