Mithrandir Metrics

HR BOARD 2025-05-15 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER armed; waiting on confirmed lineups

Lane Health 2026-09-01

Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable

Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable

Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research

Selective Lane

Valinor is available, but quiet today.

Valinor covers Home Run Market Gaps as a selective lane but didn't qualify any rows on today's slate. Try Palantir or check back tomorrow.

Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.

Lineups not posted

The in-lineup filter is armed, but no confirmed lineup artifact exists for this date yet. The board is showing the projected pool honestly.

Home-run board · largest Valinor gap versus market

#	Player	Matchup	Sim	Implied	Gap	Three lanes · P/F/V	Spread	Park	Weather	Recent	Best line
01	Yordan Alvarez HOU Lineup pending	HOU vs TEXJacob deGrom · slot 2	--Valinor	20.9%market	+5.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.023xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 360 avg 3 books
02	Tyler O'Neill BAL Lineup pending	BAL vs MINChris Paddack · slot 3	--Valinor	20.0%market	+5.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.013xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 380 avg 3 books
03	Ronald Acuña Jr. ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs WSHTrevor Williams · slot 1	--Valinor	20.0%market	+5.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.062xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 380 avg 3 books
04	Anthony Santander TOR Lineup pending	TOR vs TBZack Littell · slot 3	--Valinor	20.1%market	+4.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.004xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 380 avg 3 books
05	Austin Riley ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs WSHTrevor Williams · slot 4	--Valinor	17.2%market	+4.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.062xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 460 avg 3 books
06	Freddie Freeman LAD Lineup pending	LAD vs ATHOsvaldo Bido · slot 2	--Valinor	16.3%market	+4.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.948xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 490 avg 3 books
07	Joc Pederson TEX Lineup pending	TEX vs HOUHunter Brown · slot 5	--Valinor	15.9%market	+4.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.023xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 505 avg 3 books
08	Jj Bleday CIN Lineup pending	CIN vs CWSBryse Wilson · slot 6	--Valinor	14.1%market	+3.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.127xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 580 avg 3 books
09	Ozzie Albies ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs WSHTrevor Williams · slot 5	--Valinor	13.5%market	+3.5pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.062xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 610 avg 3 books
10	Jesús Sánchez TOR Lineup pending	TOR vs TBZack Littell · slot 5	--Valinor	13.5%market	+3.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.004xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 615 avg 3 books
11	Michael Harris II ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs WSHTrevor Williams · slot 8	--Valinor	13.0%market	+3.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.062xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 640 avg 3 books
12	Carlos Correa HOU Lineup pending	HOU vs TEXJacob deGrom · slot 6	--Valinor	11.9%market	+2.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.023xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 710 avg 3 books
13	Mookie Betts LAD Lineup pending	LAD vs ATHOsvaldo Bido · slot 5	--Valinor	16.0%market	+2.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.948xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 500 avg 3 books
14	Corey Seager TEX Lineup pending	TEX vs HOUHunter Brown · slot 2	--Valinor	22.1%market	+2.5pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.023xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 335 avg 3 books
15	Yainer Diaz HOU Lineup pending	HOU vs TEXJacob deGrom · slot 7	--Valinor	14.3%market	+2.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.023xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 570 avg 3 books
16	Colson Montgomery CWS Lineup pending	CWS vs CINNick Martinez · slot 3	--Valinor	24.1%market	+2.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.127xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 300 avg 3 books
17	Shohei Ohtani LAD Lineup pending	LAD vs ATHOsvaldo Bido · slot 1	--Valinor	28.6%market	+1.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.948xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 235 avg 3 books
18	Elly De La Cruz CIN Lineup pending	CIN vs CWSBryse Wilson · slot 1	--Valinor	15.2%market	+1.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.127xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 535 avg 3 books
19	Gunnar Henderson BAL Lineup pending	BAL vs MINChris Paddack · slot 1	--Valinor	17.5%market	+1.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.013xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 450 avg 3 books
20	Daulton Varsho TOR Lineup pending	TOR vs TBZack Littell · slot 4	--Valinor	18.1%market	+1.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.004xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 430 avg 3 books
21	Will Benson CIN Lineup pending	CIN vs CWSBryse Wilson · slot 7	--Valinor	15.1%market	+1.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.127xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 535 avg 3 books
22	Eugenio Suárez CIN Lineup pending	CIN vs CWSBryse Wilson · slot 3	--Valinor	21.4%market	+0.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.127xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 350 avg 3 books
23	Tj Friedl CIN Lineup pending	CIN vs CWSBryse Wilson · slot 2	--Valinor	13.2%market	+0.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.127xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 630 avg 3 books
24	Kyle Teel CWS Lineup pending	CWS vs CINNick Martinez · slot 2	--Valinor	13.5%market	+0.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.127xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 615 avg 3 books
25	Drake Baldwin ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs WSHTrevor Williams · slot 3	--Valinor	17.2%market	+0.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.062xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 460 avg 3 books
26	Andrew Benintendi CWS Lineup pending	CWS vs CINNick Martinez · slot 4	--Valinor	13.6%market	+0.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.127xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 605 avg 3 books
27	Mike Yastrzemski ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs WSHTrevor Williams · slot 6	--Valinor	14.5%market	+0.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.062xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 565 avg 3 books
28	Colton Cowser BAL Lineup pending	BAL vs MINChris Paddack · slot 8	--Valinor	15.4%market	+0.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.013xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 525 avg 3 books
29	James Wood WSH Lineup pending	WSH vs ATLAj Smith-Shawver · slot 2	--Valinor	17.0%market	+0.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.062xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 465 avg 3 books
30	Spencer Steer CIN Lineup pending	CIN vs CWSBryse Wilson · slot 4	--Valinor	14.5%market	+0.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.127xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 565 avg 3 books
31	Tyler Stephenson CIN Lineup pending	CIN vs CWSBryse Wilson · slot 5	--Valinor	14.5%market	-0.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.127xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 565 avg 3 books
32	Jordan Westburg BAL Lineup pending	BAL vs MINChris Paddack · slot 5	--Valinor	16.1%market	-0.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.013xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 500 avg 3 books
33	Cj Abrams WSH Lineup pending	WSH vs ATLAj Smith-Shawver · slot 1	--Valinor	14.2%market	-0.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.062xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 580 avg 3 books
34	Lenyn Sosa CWS Lineup pending	CWS vs CINNick Martinez · slot 7	--Valinor	14.0%market	-0.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.127xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 590 avg 3 books
35	Luis García Jr. WSH Lineup pending	WSH vs ATLAj Smith-Shawver · slot 4	--Valinor	13.7%market	-0.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.062xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 630 avg 3 books
36	Edgar Quero CWS Lineup pending	CWS vs CINNick Martinez · slot 6	--Valinor	7.8%market	-0.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.127xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 1125 avg 3 books
37	Matt Olson ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs WSHTrevor Williams · slot 2	--Valinor	21.2%market	-0.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.062xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 355 avg 3 books
38	Daylen Lile WSH Lineup pending	WSH vs ATLAj Smith-Shawver · slot 3	--Valinor	12.7%market	-0.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.062xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 690 avg 3 books
39	Keibert Ruiz WSH Lineup pending	WSH vs ATLAj Smith-Shawver · slot 5	--Valinor	10.7%market	-0.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.062xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 795 avg 3 books
40	Adley Rutschman BAL Lineup pending	BAL vs MINChris Paddack · slot 6	--Valinor	12.7%market	-0.5pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.013xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 690 avg 3 books
41	Nathan Lukes TOR Lineup pending	TOR vs TBZack Littell · slot 6	--Valinor	10.4%market	-0.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.004xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 825 avg 3 books
42	Austin Hays CWS Lineup pending	CWS vs CINNick Martinez · slot 5	--Valinor	12.8%market	-0.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.127xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 650 avg 3 books
43	José Tena WSH Lineup pending	WSH vs ATLAj Smith-Shawver · slot 6	--Valinor	7.8%market	-0.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.062xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 1130 avg 3 books
44	Sean Murphy ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs WSHTrevor Williams · slot 7	--Valinor	16.7%market	-0.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.062xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 480 avg 3 books
45	Chase Meidroth CWS Lineup pending	CWS vs CINNick Martinez · slot 1	--Valinor	7.7%market	-0.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.127xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
46	Will Smith LAD Lineup pending	LAD vs ATHOsvaldo Bido · slot 9	--Valinor	14.1%market	-0.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.948xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 585 avg 3 books
47	Brandon Nimmo TEX Lineup pending	TEX vs HOUHunter Brown · slot 3	--Valinor	16.1%market	-1.0pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.023xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 500 avg 3 books
48	Evan Carter TEX Lineup pending	TEX vs HOUHunter Brown · slot 6	--Valinor	12.9%market	-1.0pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.023xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 675 avg 3 books
49	Dylan Crews WSH Lineup pending	WSH vs ATLAj Smith-Shawver · slot 7	--Valinor	12.4%market	-1.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.062xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 705 avg 3 books
50	Taylor Ward BAL Lineup pending	BAL vs MINChris Paddack · slot 4	--Valinor	18.4%market	-1.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.013xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 425 avg 3 books
51	Davis Schneider TOR Lineup pending	TOR vs TBZack Littell · slot 7	--Valinor	15.6%market	-1.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.004xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 520 avg 3 books
52	Jose Altuve HOU Lineup pending	HOU vs TEXJacob deGrom · slot 3	--Valinor	16.0%market	-1.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.023xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 505 avg 3 books
53	Max Muncy LAD Lineup pending	LAD vs ATHOsvaldo Bido · slot 6	--Valinor	20.1%market	-1.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.948xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 380 avg 3 books
54	Jake Fraley TB Lineup pending	TB vs TORKevin Gausman · slot 6	--Valinor	12.7%market	-1.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.004xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 660 avg 3 books
55	George Springer TOR Lineup pending	TOR vs TBZack Littell · slot 1	--Valinor	18.2%market	-1.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.004xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 430 avg 3 books
56	Christian Walker HOU Lineup pending	HOU vs TEXJacob deGrom · slot 4	--Valinor	18.6%market	-1.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.023xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 420 avg 3 books
57	Pete Alonso BAL Lineup pending	BAL vs MINChris Paddack · slot 2	--Valinor	23.3%market	-1.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.013xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 315 avg 3 books
58	Jonathan Aranda TB Lineup pending	TB vs TORKevin Gausman · slot 3	--Valinor	14.5%market	-1.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.004xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 565 avg 3 books
59	Jeremy Peña HOU Lineup pending	HOU vs TEXJacob deGrom · slot 1	--Valinor	12.2%market	-1.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.023xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 720 avg 3 books
60	Cedric Mullins TB Lineup pending	TB vs TORKevin Gausman · slot 5	--Valinor	15.1%market	-1.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.004xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 540 avg 3 books
61	Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR Lineup pending	TOR vs TBZack Littell · slot 2	--Valinor	17.1%market	-1.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.004xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 465 avg 3 books
62	Gavin Lux TB Lineup pending	TB vs TORKevin Gausman · slot 7	--Valinor	7.7%market	-1.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.004xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
63	Ryan Mountcastle BAL Lineup pending	BAL vs MINChris Paddack · slot 7	--Valinor	11.4%market	-1.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.013xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 745 avg 3 books
64	Kyle Tucker LAD Lineup pending	LAD vs ATHOsvaldo Bido · slot 3	--Valinor	19.1%market	-1.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.948xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 405 avg 3 books
65	Andy Pages LAD Lineup pending	LAD vs ATHOsvaldo Bido · slot 7	--Valinor	14.9%market	-1.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.948xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 570 avg 3 books
66	Josh Jung TEX Lineup pending	TEX vs HOUHunter Brown · slot 7	--Valinor	13.6%market	-1.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.023xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 605 avg 3 books
67	Wyatt Langford TEX Lineup pending	TEX vs HOUHunter Brown · slot 1	--Valinor	15.9%market	-1.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.023xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 530 avg 3 books
68	Isaac Paredes HOU Lineup pending	HOU vs TEXJacob deGrom · slot 5	--Valinor	17.2%market	-1.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.023xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 480 avg 3 books
69	Danny Jansen TEX Lineup pending	TEX vs HOUHunter Brown · slot 8	--Valinor	15.4%market	-2.0pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.023xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 550 avg 3 books
70	Yandy Díaz TB Lineup pending	TB vs TORKevin Gausman · slot 2	--Valinor	15.6%market	-2.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.004xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 540 avg 3 books
71	Teoscar Hernández LAD Lineup pending	LAD vs ATHOsvaldo Bido · slot 4	--Valinor	19.2%market	-2.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.948xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
72	Junior Caminero TB Lineup pending	TB vs TORKevin Gausman · slot 4	--Valinor	24.7%market	-2.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.004xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 305 avg 3 books
73	Jake Burger TEX Lineup pending	TEX vs HOUHunter Brown · slot 4	--Valinor	21.3%market	-3.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.023xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 370 avg 3 books
74	Chandler Simpson TB Lineup pending	TB vs TORKevin Gausman · slot 1	--Valinor	8.0%market	-4.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.004xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books

Top saved signals

5 value rows

01 Yordan AlvarezHOU vs TEX · FanDuel

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp 02 Tyler O'NeillBAL vs MIN · FanDuel

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp 03 Ronald Acuña Jr.ATL vs WSH · FanDuel

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp 04 Anthony SantanderTOR vs TB · FanDuel

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp 05 Corey SeagerTEX vs HOU · FanDuel

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp

Data context

0 sample flags

Status0roster/transaction rows

Lineups0confirmed starters

Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.