Mithrandir Metrics
Valinor lane 2025-05-29 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
37
Matched
111
Lineups
0
HR BOARD 2025-05-29 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER armed; waiting on confirmed lineups
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research

Selective Lane

Valinor is available, but quiet today.

Valinor covers Home Run Market Gaps as a selective lane but didn't qualify any rows on today's slate. Try Palantir or check back tomorrow.

Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Lineups not posted

The in-lineup filter is armed, but no confirmed lineup artifact exists for this date yet. The board is showing the projected pool honestly.

Home-run board · largest Valinor gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01
Yordan Alvarez HOU
Lineup pending
HOU vs TBShane Baz · slot 2
 --Valinor 20.9%market +5.9pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.993xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 360 avg 3 books
02
Anthony Santander TOR
Lineup pending
TOR vs ATHJacob Lopez · slot 3
 --Valinor 20.1%market +4.3pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.021xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 380 avg 3 books
03
Jesús Sánchez TOR
Lineup pending
TOR vs ATHJacob Lopez · slot 5
 --Valinor 13.5%market +3.3pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.021xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 615 avg 3 books
04
Carlos Correa HOU
Lineup pending
HOU vs TBShane Baz · slot 6
 --Valinor 11.9%market +2.8pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.993xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 710 avg 3 books
05
Yainer Diaz HOU
Lineup pending
HOU vs TBShane Baz · slot 7
 --Valinor 14.3%market +1.8pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.993xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 570 avg 3 books
06
Nick Kurtz ATH
Lineup pending
ATH vs TORJosé Berríos · slot 1
 --Valinor 26.4%market +0.9pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.021xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 265 avg 3 books
07
Tyler Soderstrom ATH
Lineup pending
ATH vs TORJosé Berríos · slot 5
 --Valinor 15.7%market -0.3pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.021xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 515 avg 3 books
08
Lawrence Butler ATH
Lineup pending
ATH vs TORJosé Berríos · slot 4
 --Valinor 16.5%market -0.4pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.021xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 485 avg 3 books
09
Davis Schneider TOR
Lineup pending
TOR vs ATHJacob Lopez · slot 7
 --Valinor 15.6%market -0.6pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.021xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 520 avg 3 books
10
George Springer TOR
Lineup pending
TOR vs ATHJacob Lopez · slot 1
 --Valinor 18.2%market -0.7pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.021xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 430 avg 3 books
11
Daulton Varsho TOR
Lineup pending
TOR vs ATHJacob Lopez · slot 4
 --Valinor 18.6%market -0.8pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.021xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 420 avg 3 books
12
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR
Lineup pending
TOR vs ATHJacob Lopez · slot 2
 --Valinor 17.1%market -0.8pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.021xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 465 avg 3 books
13
Jacob Wilson ATH
Lineup pending
ATH vs TORJosé Berríos · slot 6
 --Valinor 9.9%market -1.2pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.021xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 870 avg 3 books
14
Austin Wynns ATH
Lineup pending
ATH vs TORJosé Berríos · slot 7
 --Valinor 12.3%market -1.3pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.021xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 715 avg 3 books
15
Nathan Lukes TOR
Lineup pending
TOR vs ATHJacob Lopez · slot 6
 --Valinor 10.4%market -1.4pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.021xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 825 avg 3 books
16
José Tena WSH
Lineup pending
WSH vs SEAEmerson Hancock · slot 6
 --Valinor 7.8%market -1.5pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.894xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1130 avg 3 books
17
Keibert Ruiz WSH
Lineup pending
WSH vs SEAEmerson Hancock · slot 5
 --Valinor 10.7%market -1.6pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.894xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 795 avg 3 books
18
Shea Langeliers ATH
Lineup pending
ATH vs TORJosé Berríos · slot 3
 --Valinor 22.4%market -1.6pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.021xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 330 avg 3 books
19
Daylen Lile WSH
Lineup pending
WSH vs SEAEmerson Hancock · slot 3
 --Valinor 12.7%market -1.6pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.894xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 690 avg 3 books
20
Luis García Jr. WSH
Lineup pending
WSH vs SEAEmerson Hancock · slot 4
 --Valinor 13.7%market -1.7pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.894xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 630 avg 3 books
21
Brent Rooker ATH
Lineup pending
ATH vs TORJosé Berríos · slot 2
 --Valinor 22.2%market -1.7pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.021xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 335 avg 3 books
22
Jeremy Peña HOU
Lineup pending
HOU vs TBShane Baz · slot 1
 --Valinor 12.2%market -1.7pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.993xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 720 avg 3 books
23
Cj Abrams WSH
Lineup pending
WSH vs SEAEmerson Hancock · slot 1
 --Valinor 14.7%market -1.8pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.894xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 580 avg 3 books
24
Jose Altuve HOU
Lineup pending
HOU vs TBShane Baz · slot 3
 --Valinor 16.5%market -1.8pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.993xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 505 avg 3 books
25
Christian Walker HOU
Lineup pending
HOU vs TBShane Baz · slot 4
 --Valinor 19.1%market -1.8pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.993xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 425 avg 3 books
26
James Wood WSH
Lineup pending
WSH vs SEAEmerson Hancock · slot 2
 --Valinor 17.9%market -1.8pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.894xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 460 avg 3 books
27
Zack Gelof ATH
Lineup pending
ATH vs TORJosé Berríos · slot 9
 --Valinor 13.9%market -2.0pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.021xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 620 avg 3 books
28
Dylan Crews WSH
Lineup pending
WSH vs SEAEmerson Hancock · slot 7
 --Valinor 12.4%market -2.3pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.894xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 705 avg 3 books
29
Isaac Paredes HOU
Lineup pending
HOU vs TBShane Baz · slot 5
 --Valinor 17.2%market -2.5pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.993xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 480 avg 3 books
30
Brendan Donovan SEA
Lineup pending
SEA vs WSHMacKenzie Gore · slot 6
 --Valinor 10.6%market -3.3pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.894xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 840 avg 3 books
31
Randy Arozarena SEA
Lineup pending
SEA vs WSHMacKenzie Gore · slot 5
 --Valinor 15.2%market -3.6pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.894xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 560 avg 3 books
32
Rob Refsnyder SEA
Lineup pending
SEA vs WSHMacKenzie Gore · slot 2
 --Valinor 15.3%market -3.6pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.894xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 555 avg 3 books
33
Luke Raley SEA
Lineup pending
SEA vs WSHMacKenzie Gore · slot 8
 --Valinor 15.6%market -4.5pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.894xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 540 avg 3 books
34
Julio Rodríguez SEA
Lineup pending
SEA vs WSHMacKenzie Gore · slot 1
 --Valinor 18.9%market -4.5pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.894xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 430 avg 3 books
35
Dominic Canzone SEA
Lineup pending
SEA vs WSHMacKenzie Gore · slot 7
 --Valinor 16.1%market -4.6pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.894xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 520 avg 3 books
36
Josh Naylor SEA
Lineup pending
SEA vs WSHMacKenzie Gore · slot 4
 --Valinor 17.2%market -4.7pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.894xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 480 avg 3 books
37
Cal Raleigh SEA
Lineup pending
SEA vs WSHMacKenzie Gore · slot 3
 --Valinor 27.0%market -5.8pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.894xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 270 avg 3 books

Data context

0 sample flags
Status0roster/transaction rows
Lineups0confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.