Mithrandir Metrics
Valinor lane 2025-06-16 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
74
Matched
222
Lineups
0
HR BOARD 2025-06-16 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER armed; waiting on confirmed lineups
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research

Selective Lane

Valinor is available, but quiet today.

Valinor covers Home Run Market Gaps as a selective lane but didn't qualify any rows on today's slate. Try Palantir or check back tomorrow.

Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Lineups not posted

The in-lineup filter is armed, but no confirmed lineup artifact exists for this date yet. The board is showing the projected pool honestly.

Home-run board · largest Valinor gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01
Yordan Alvarez HOU
Lineup pending
HOU vs ATHMitch Spence · slot 2
 --Valinor 20.9%market +5.9pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.007xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 360 avg 3 books
02
Tyler O'Neill BAL
Lineup pending
BAL vs TBRyan Pepiot · slot 3
 --Valinor 20.0%market +5.7pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.003xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 380 avg 3 books
03
Jazz Chisholm Jr. NYY
Lineup pending
NYY vs LAAJosé Soriano · slot 5
 --Valinor 18.8%market +5.2pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.045xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 410 avg 3 books
04
Freddie Freeman LAD
Lineup pending
LAD vs SDDylan Cease · slot 2
 --Valinor 16.3%market +3.3pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.964xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 490 avg 3 books
05
Carlos Correa HOU
Lineup pending
HOU vs ATHMitch Spence · slot 6
 --Valinor 11.9%market +2.8pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.007xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 710 avg 3 books
06
Yainer Diaz HOU
Lineup pending
HOU vs ATHMitch Spence · slot 7
 --Valinor 14.3%market +2.7pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.007xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 570 avg 3 books
07
Jarren Duran BOS
Lineup pending
BOS vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 1
 --Valinor 12.0%market +1.7pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.918xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 705 avg 3 books
08
Bryce Harper PHI
Lineup pending
PHI vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 2
 --Valinor 18.9%market +1.5pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.947xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 410 avg 3 books
09
Mookie Betts LAD
Lineup pending
LAD vs SDDylan Cease · slot 5
 --Valinor 16.0%market +1.0pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.964xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 500 avg 3 books
10
Yoán Moncada LAA
Lineup pending
LAA vs NYYClarke Schmidt · slot 6
 --Valinor 14.4%market +1.0pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.045xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 570 avg 3 books
11
Giancarlo Stanton NYY
Lineup pending
NYY vs LAAJosé Soriano · slot 4
 --Valinor 24.3%market +0.7pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.045xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 295 avg 3 books
12
Gunnar Henderson BAL
Lineup pending
BAL vs TBRyan Pepiot · slot 1
 --Valinor 17.5%market +0.5pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.003xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 450 avg 3 books
13
Zach Neto LAA
Lineup pending
LAA vs NYYClarke Schmidt · slot 1
 --Valinor 17.6%market +0.4pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.045xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 445 avg 3 books
14
Mickey Moniak COL
Lineup pending
COL vs WSHJake Irvin · slot 3
 --Valinor 18.1%market +0.3pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.992xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 430 avg 3 books
15
Josh Naylor SEA
Lineup pending
SEA vs BOSLucas Giolito · slot 4
 --Valinor 16.7%market -0.2pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.918xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 480 avg 3 books
16
Masataka Yoshida BOS
Lineup pending
BOS vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 7
 --Valinor 10.0%market -0.4pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.918xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 860 avg 3 books
17
Luke Raley SEA
Lineup pending
SEA vs BOSLucas Giolito · slot 8
 --Valinor 15.1%market -0.4pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.918xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 540 avg 3 books
18
Willi Castro COL
Lineup pending
COL vs WSHJake Irvin · slot 1
 --Valinor 10.9%market -0.5pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.992xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 780 avg 3 books
19
Jonathan Aranda TB
Lineup pending
TB vs BALZach Eflin · slot 3
 --Valinor 14.5%market -0.5pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.003xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 565 avg 3 books
20
Edouard Julien COL
Lineup pending
COL vs WSHJake Irvin · slot 6
 --Valinor 12.2%market -0.6pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.992xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 685 avg 3 books
21
Dominic Canzone SEA
Lineup pending
SEA vs BOSLucas Giolito · slot 7
 --Valinor 15.7%market -0.6pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.918xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 515 avg 3 books
22
Cedric Mullins TB
Lineup pending
TB vs BALZach Eflin · slot 5
 --Valinor 15.1%market -0.6pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.003xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 540 avg 3 books
23
Jake Fraley TB
Lineup pending
TB vs BALZach Eflin · slot 6
 --Valinor 12.7%market -0.6pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.003xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 660 avg 3 books
24
Brendan Donovan SEA
Lineup pending
SEA vs BOSLucas Giolito · slot 6
 --Valinor 10.3%market -0.7pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.918xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 835 avg 3 books
25
Colton Cowser BAL
Lineup pending
BAL vs TBRyan Pepiot · slot 8
 --Valinor 15.7%market -0.7pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.003xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 515 avg 3 books
26
Alec Bohm PHI
Lineup pending
PHI vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 5
 --Valinor 11.8%market -0.7pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.947xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 745 avg 3 books
27
Cal Raleigh SEA
Lineup pending
SEA vs BOSLucas Giolito · slot 3
 --Valinor 26.5%market -0.8pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.918xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 265 avg 3 books
28
Jordan Westburg BAL
Lineup pending
BAL vs TBRyan Pepiot · slot 5
 --Valinor 16.1%market -0.8pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.003xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 500 avg 3 books
29
Nolan Schanuel LAA
Lineup pending
LAA vs NYYClarke Schmidt · slot 7
 --Valinor 9.2%market -0.8pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.045xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 940 avg 3 books
30
Adley Rutschman BAL
Lineup pending
BAL vs TBRyan Pepiot · slot 6
 --Valinor 12.7%market -0.9pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.003xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 690 avg 3 books
31
Jose Altuve HOU
Lineup pending
HOU vs ATHMitch Spence · slot 3
 --Valinor 16.0%market -1.0pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.007xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 505 avg 3 books
32
Christian Walker HOU
Lineup pending
HOU vs ATHMitch Spence · slot 4
 --Valinor 18.6%market -1.0pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.007xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 420 avg 3 books
33
Brenton Doyle COL
Lineup pending
COL vs WSHJake Irvin · slot 5
 --Valinor 13.3%market -1.1pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.992xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 625 avg 3 books
34
Jeremy Peña HOU
Lineup pending
HOU vs ATHMitch Spence · slot 1
 --Valinor 12.2%market -1.1pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.007xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 720 avg 3 books
35
Jordan Beck COL
Lineup pending
COL vs WSHJake Irvin · slot 7
 --Valinor 11.0%market -1.2pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.992xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 770 avg 3 books
36
Ezequiel Tovar COL
Lineup pending
COL vs WSHJake Irvin · slot 4
 --Valinor 13.3%market -1.2pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.992xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 625 avg 3 books
37
Gavin Lux TB
Lineup pending
TB vs BALZach Eflin · slot 7
 --Valinor 7.7%market -1.2pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.003xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
38
Rob Refsnyder SEA
Lineup pending
SEA vs BOSLucas Giolito · slot 2
 --Valinor 14.8%market -1.2pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.918xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 555 avg 3 books
39
Randy Arozarena SEA
Lineup pending
SEA vs BOSLucas Giolito · slot 5
 --Valinor 14.6%market -1.2pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.918xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 560 avg 3 books
40
Hunter Goodman COL
Lineup pending
COL vs WSHJake Irvin · slot 2
 --Valinor 21.0%market -1.3pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.992xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 360 avg 3 books
41
Aaron Judge NYY
Lineup pending
NYY vs LAAJosé Soriano · slot 2
 --Valinor 30.6%market -1.3pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.045xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 215 avg 3 books
42
Kyle Schwarber PHI
Lineup pending
PHI vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 3
 --Valinor 27.0%market -1.6pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.947xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 270 avg 3 books
43
Yandy Díaz TB
Lineup pending
TB vs BALZach Eflin · slot 2
 --Valinor 15.1%market -1.6pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.003xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 540 avg 3 books
44
Travis D'Arnaud LAA
Lineup pending
LAA vs NYYClarke Schmidt · slot 8
 --Valinor 14.1%market -1.6pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.045xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 585 avg 3 books
45
Logan O'Hoppe LAA
Lineup pending
LAA vs NYYClarke Schmidt · slot 5
 --Valinor 18.1%market -1.7pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.045xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 435 avg 3 books
46
Mike Trout LAA
Lineup pending
LAA vs NYYClarke Schmidt · slot 2
 --Valinor 20.8%market -1.7pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.045xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 365 avg 3 books
47
Jo Adell LAA
Lineup pending
LAA vs NYYClarke Schmidt · slot 4
 --Valinor 22.2%market -1.7pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.045xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 335 avg 3 books
48
Jorge Soler LAA
Lineup pending
LAA vs NYYClarke Schmidt · slot 3
 --Valinor 18.6%market -1.7pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.045xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 420 avg 3 books
49
Ben Rice NYY
Lineup pending
NYY vs LAAJosé Soriano · slot 6
 --Valinor 17.7%market -1.7pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.045xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 445 avg 3 books
50
Isaac Paredes HOU
Lineup pending
HOU vs ATHMitch Spence · slot 5
 --Valinor 17.2%market -1.7pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.007xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 480 avg 3 books
51
Junior Caminero TB
Lineup pending
TB vs BALZach Eflin · slot 4
 --Valinor 24.1%market -1.7pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.003xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 300 avg 3 books
52
Brandon Marsh PHI
Lineup pending
PHI vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 6
 --Valinor 12.2%market -1.7pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.947xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 690 avg 3 books
53
Taylor Ward BAL
Lineup pending
BAL vs TBRyan Pepiot · slot 4
 --Valinor 18.4%market -1.7pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.003xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 425 avg 3 books
54
Julio Rodríguez SEA
Lineup pending
SEA vs BOSLucas Giolito · slot 1
 --Valinor 18.9%market -1.8pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.918xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 430 avg 3 books
55
Pete Alonso BAL
Lineup pending
BAL vs TBRyan Pepiot · slot 2
 --Valinor 23.8%market -1.8pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.003xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 320 avg 3 books
56
Trent Grisham NYY
Lineup pending
NYY vs LAAJosé Soriano · slot 7
 --Valinor 17.9%market -1.8pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.045xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 460 avg 3 books
57
Cody Bellinger NYY
Lineup pending
NYY vs LAAJosé Soriano · slot 3
 --Valinor 17.9%market -1.9pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.045xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 460 avg 3 books
58
José Caballero NYY
Lineup pending
NYY vs LAAJosé Soriano · slot 1
 --Valinor 9.1%market -2.0pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.045xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 960 avg 3 books
59
Ryan Mountcastle BAL
Lineup pending
BAL vs TBRyan Pepiot · slot 7
 --Valinor 11.8%market -2.0pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.003xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 745 avg 3 books
60
Roman Anthony BOS
Lineup pending
BOS vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 2
 --Valinor 14.0%market -2.2pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.918xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 615 avg 3 books
61
Wilyer Abreu BOS
Lineup pending
BOS vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 4
 --Valinor 18.4%market -2.5pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.918xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
62
Trea Turner PHI
Lineup pending
PHI vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 1
 --Valinor 15.4%market -2.6pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.947xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 550 avg 3 books
63
Edmundo Sosa PHI
Lineup pending
PHI vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 7
 --Valinor 14.0%market -2.7pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.947xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 615 avg 3 books
64
Romy Gonzalez BOS
Lineup pending
BOS vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 6
 --Valinor 12.4%market -2.7pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.918xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 705 avg 3 books
65
Triston Casas BOS
Lineup pending
BOS vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 5
 --Valinor 18.4%market -2.8pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.918xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
66
Shohei Ohtani LAD
Lineup pending
LAD vs SDDylan Cease · slot 1
 --Valinor 30.3%market -3.0pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.964xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 230 avg 3 books
67
Will Smith LAD
Lineup pending
LAD vs SDDylan Cease · slot 9
 --Valinor 14.6%market -3.0pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.964xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 585 avg 3 books
68
Adolis García PHI
Lineup pending
PHI vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 4
 --Valinor 18.9%market -3.1pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.947xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 430 avg 3 books
69
Andy Pages LAD
Lineup pending
LAD vs SDDylan Cease · slot 7
 --Valinor 14.9%market -4.2pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.964xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 570 avg 3 books
70
Willson Contreras BOS
Lineup pending
BOS vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 3
 --Valinor 17.2%market -4.3pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.918xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 480 avg 3 books
71
Kyle Tucker LAD
Lineup pending
LAD vs SDDylan Cease · slot 3
 --Valinor 19.6%market -4.5pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.964xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 410 avg 3 books
72
Chandler Simpson TB
Lineup pending
TB vs BALZach Eflin · slot 1
 --Valinor 8.0%market -4.7pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.003xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
73
Max Muncy LAD
Lineup pending
LAD vs SDDylan Cease · slot 6
 --Valinor 20.8%market -4.7pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.964xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 380 avg 3 books
74
Teoscar Hernández LAD
Lineup pending
LAD vs SDDylan Cease · slot 4
 --Valinor 19.2%market -5.2pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.964xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books

Data context

0 sample flags
Status0roster/transaction rows
Lineups0confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.