Mithrandir Metrics

HR BOARD 2025-07-24 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER armed; waiting on confirmed lineups

Lane Health 2026-09-02

Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable

Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable

Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research

Selective Lane

Fangorn is available, but quiet today.

Fangorn covers Home Run Market Gaps as a selective lane but didn't qualify any rows on today's slate. Try Palantir or check back tomorrow.

Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.

Lineups not posted

The in-lineup filter is armed, but no confirmed lineup artifact exists for this date yet. The board is showing the projected pool honestly.

Home-run board · largest Fangorn gap versus market

#	Player	Matchup	Sim	Implied	Gap	Three lanes · P/F/V	Spread	Park	Weather	Recent	Best line
01	Yordan Alvarez HOU Lineup pending	HOU vs ATHLuis Severino · slot 2	--Fangorn	20.9%market	+5.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.015xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 360 avg 3 books
02	Tyler O'Neill BAL Lineup pending	BAL vs CLELogan Allen · slot 3	--Fangorn	20.0%market	+5.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.056xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 380 avg 3 books
03	José Ramírez CLE Lineup pending	CLE vs BALCharlie Morton · slot 1	--Fangorn	19.4%market	+5.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.056xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 395 avg 3 books
04	Riley Greene DET Lineup pending	DET vs TOREric Lauer · slot 4	--Fangorn	18.0%market	+5.0pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.963xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 435 avg 3 books
05	Alec Burleson STL Lineup pending	STL vs SDYu Darvish · slot 3	--Fangorn	14.1%market	+3.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.986xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 580 avg 3 books
06	Fernando Tatis Jr. SD Lineup pending	SD vs STLSonny Gray · slot 1	--Fangorn	17.2%market	+3.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.986xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 460 avg 3 books
07	Jesús Sánchez TOR Lineup pending	TOR vs DETReese Olson · slot 5	--Fangorn	13.5%market	+2.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.963xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 615 avg 3 books
08	Carlos Correa HOU Lineup pending	HOU vs ATHLuis Severino · slot 6	--Fangorn	11.9%market	+2.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.015xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 710 avg 3 books
09	Lars Nootbaar STL Lineup pending	STL vs SDYu Darvish · slot 5	--Fangorn	11.6%market	+2.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.986xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 735 avg 3 books
10	Yainer Diaz HOU Lineup pending	HOU vs ATHLuis Severino · slot 7	--Fangorn	14.3%market	+1.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.015xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 570 avg 3 books
11	Anthony Santander TOR Lineup pending	TOR vs DETReese Olson · slot 3	--Fangorn	20.1%market	+1.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.963xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 380 avg 3 books
12	Jordan Westburg BAL Lineup pending	BAL vs CLELogan Allen · slot 5	--Fangorn	15.9%market	+0.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.056xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 505 avg 3 books
13	Ramón Laureano SD Lineup pending	SD vs STLSonny Gray · slot 5	--Fangorn	16.0%market	+0.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.986xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 500 avg 3 books
14	Pete Alonso BAL Lineup pending	BAL vs CLELogan Allen · slot 2	--Fangorn	22.6%market	+0.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.056xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 325 avg 3 books
15	Taylor Ward BAL Lineup pending	BAL vs CLELogan Allen · slot 4	--Fangorn	18.0%market	+0.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.056xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 435 avg 3 books
16	Jahmai Jones DET Lineup pending	DET vs TOREric Lauer · slot 2	--Fangorn	16.6%market	+0.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.963xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 480 avg 3 books
17	Gunnar Henderson BAL Lineup pending	BAL vs CLELogan Allen · slot 1	--Fangorn	17.9%market	-0.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.056xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 440 avg 3 books
18	Spencer Torkelson DET Lineup pending	DET vs TOREric Lauer · slot 5	--Fangorn	17.4%market	-0.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.963xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 455 avg 3 books
19	Jordan Walker STL Lineup pending	STL vs SDYu Darvish · slot 7	--Fangorn	10.6%market	-0.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.986xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 805 avg 3 books
20	Kyle Manzardo CLE Lineup pending	CLE vs BALCharlie Morton · slot 3	--Fangorn	19.3%market	-0.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.056xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 400 avg 3 books
21	Dillon Dingler DET Lineup pending	DET vs TOREric Lauer · slot 7	--Fangorn	11.9%market	-0.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.963xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 740 avg 3 books
22	Adley Rutschman BAL Lineup pending	BAL vs CLELogan Allen · slot 6	--Fangorn	12.7%market	-0.5pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.056xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 690 avg 3 books
23	Daniel Schneemann CLE Lineup pending	CLE vs BALCharlie Morton · slot 6	--Fangorn	12.0%market	-0.5pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.056xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 700 avg 3 books
24	Bo Naylor CLE Lineup pending	CLE vs BALCharlie Morton · slot 4	--Fangorn	15.2%market	-0.5pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.056xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 535 avg 3 books
25	Nolan Gorman STL Lineup pending	STL vs SDYu Darvish · slot 4	--Fangorn	19.3%market	-0.5pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.986xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 400 avg 3 books
26	Angel Martínez CLE Lineup pending	CLE vs BALCharlie Morton · slot 7	--Fangorn	9.5%market	-0.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.056xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 915 avg 3 books
27	Rob Refsnyder SEA Lineup pending	SEA vs LAAYusei Kikuchi · slot 2	--Fangorn	14.8%market	-0.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.004xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 555 avg 3 books
28	Randy Arozarena SEA Lineup pending	SEA vs LAAYusei Kikuchi · slot 5	--Fangorn	14.6%market	-0.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.004xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 560 avg 3 books
29	Ryan Mountcastle BAL Lineup pending	BAL vs CLELogan Allen · slot 7	--Fangorn	11.4%market	-1.0pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.056xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 745 avg 3 books
30	Colton Cowser BAL Lineup pending	BAL vs CLELogan Allen · slot 8	--Fangorn	15.7%market	-1.0pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.056xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 515 avg 3 books
31	Colt Keith DET Lineup pending	DET vs TOREric Lauer · slot 6	--Fangorn	11.2%market	-1.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.963xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 755 avg 3 books
32	Julio Rodríguez SEA Lineup pending	SEA vs LAAYusei Kikuchi · slot 1	--Fangorn	18.2%market	-1.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.004xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 430 avg 3 books
33	Victor Scott II STL Lineup pending	STL vs SDYu Darvish · slot 1	--Fangorn	7.7%market	-1.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.986xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
34	Zach McKinstry DET Lineup pending	DET vs TOREric Lauer · slot 1	--Fangorn	10.0%market	-1.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.963xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 865 avg 3 books
35	Steven Kwan CLE Lineup pending	CLE vs BALCharlie Morton · slot 2	--Fangorn	8.9%market	-1.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.056xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 975 avg 3 books
36	Cal Raleigh SEA Lineup pending	SEA vs LAAYusei Kikuchi · slot 3	--Fangorn	26.5%market	-1.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.004xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 265 avg 3 books
37	Kerry Carpenter DET Lineup pending	DET vs TOREric Lauer · slot 3	--Fangorn	21.5%market	-1.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.963xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 350 avg 3 books
38	Ramón Urías STL Lineup pending	STL vs SDYu Darvish · slot 6	--Fangorn	11.4%market	-1.5pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.986xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 740 avg 3 books
39	David Fry CLE Lineup pending	CLE vs BALCharlie Morton · slot 5	--Fangorn	16.5%market	-1.5pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.056xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 485 avg 3 books
40	Brendan Donovan SEA Lineup pending	SEA vs LAAYusei Kikuchi · slot 6	--Fangorn	10.3%market	-1.5pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.004xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 835 avg 3 books
41	Iván Herrera STL Lineup pending	STL vs SDYu Darvish · slot 2	--Fangorn	14.8%market	-1.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.986xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 550 avg 3 books
42	Jake Cronenworth SD Lineup pending	SD vs STLSonny Gray · slot 7	--Fangorn	10.1%market	-1.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.986xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 850 avg 3 books
43	Jackson Merrill SD Lineup pending	SD vs STLSonny Gray · slot 3	--Fangorn	16.2%market	-1.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.986xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 495 avg 3 books
44	Josh Naylor SEA Lineup pending	SEA vs LAAYusei Kikuchi · slot 4	--Fangorn	16.7%market	-1.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.004xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 480 avg 3 books
45	Jeremy Peña HOU Lineup pending	HOU vs ATHLuis Severino · slot 1	--Fangorn	12.2%market	-1.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.015xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 720 avg 3 books
46	Daulton Varsho TOR Lineup pending	TOR vs DETReese Olson · slot 4	--Fangorn	18.6%market	-1.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.963xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 420 avg 3 books
47	Jose Altuve HOU Lineup pending	HOU vs ATHLuis Severino · slot 3	--Fangorn	16.5%market	-1.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.015xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 505 avg 3 books
48	Christian Walker HOU Lineup pending	HOU vs ATHLuis Severino · slot 4	--Fangorn	19.1%market	-1.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.015xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 425 avg 3 books
49	Dominic Canzone SEA Lineup pending	SEA vs LAAYusei Kikuchi · slot 7	--Fangorn	16.1%market	-1.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.004xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 520 avg 3 books
50	Luke Raley SEA Lineup pending	SEA vs LAAYusei Kikuchi · slot 8	--Fangorn	15.6%market	-1.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.004xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 540 avg 3 books
51	Nathan Lukes TOR Lineup pending	TOR vs DETReese Olson · slot 6	--Fangorn	10.4%market	-1.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.963xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 825 avg 3 books
52	Miguel Andujar SD Lineup pending	SD vs STLSonny Gray · slot 6	--Fangorn	10.8%market	-2.0pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.986xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 830 avg 3 books
53	Manny Machado SD Lineup pending	SD vs STLSonny Gray · slot 2	--Fangorn	19.8%market	-2.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.986xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 405 avg 3 books
54	Isaac Paredes HOU Lineup pending	HOU vs ATHLuis Severino · slot 5	--Fangorn	17.2%market	-2.5pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.015xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 480 avg 3 books
55	Nick Castellanos SD Lineup pending	SD vs STLSonny Gray · slot 4	--Fangorn	15.6%market	-2.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.986xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 540 avg 3 books
56	Davis Schneider TOR Lineup pending	TOR vs DETReese Olson · slot 7	--Fangorn	16.0%market	-3.0pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.963xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 525 avg 3 books
57	Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR Lineup pending	TOR vs DETReese Olson · slot 2	--Fangorn	17.7%market	-3.5pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.963xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
58	George Springer TOR Lineup pending	TOR vs DETReese Olson · slot 1	--Fangorn	18.9%market	-3.5pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.963xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 430 avg 3 books

Top saved signals

5 value rows

01 Yordan AlvarezHOU vs ATH · FanDuel

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp 02 Tyler O'NeillBAL vs CLE · FanDuel

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp 03 José RamírezCLE vs BAL · FanDuel

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp 04 Riley GreeneDET vs TOR · FanDuel

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp 05 Fernando Tatis Jr.SD vs STL · FanDuel

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp

Data context

0 sample flags

Status0roster/transaction rows

Lineups0confirmed starters

Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.