Mithrandir Metrics

HR BOARD 2025-07-31 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER armed; waiting on confirmed lineups

Lane Health 2026-09-02

Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable

Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable

Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research

Selective Lane

Fangorn is available, but quiet today.

Fangorn covers Home Run Market Gaps as a selective lane but didn't qualify any rows on today's slate. Try Palantir or check back tomorrow.

Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.

Lineups not posted

The in-lineup filter is armed, but no confirmed lineup artifact exists for this date yet. The board is showing the projected pool honestly.

Home-run board · largest Fangorn gap versus market

#	Player	Matchup	Sim	Implied	Gap	Three lanes · P/F/V	Spread	Park	Weather	Recent	Best line
01	Ronald Acuña Jr. ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs CINAndrew Abbott · slot 1	--Fangorn	20.0%market	+5.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.002xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 380 avg 3 books
02	Jazz Chisholm Jr. NYY Lineup pending	NYY vs TBRyan Pepiot · slot 5	--Fangorn	18.8%market	+5.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.012xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 410 avg 3 books
03	Austin Riley ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs CINAndrew Abbott · slot 4	--Fangorn	17.2%market	+4.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.002xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 460 avg 3 books
04	Joc Pederson TEX Lineup pending	TEX vs SEAGeorge Kirby · slot 5	--Fangorn	15.9%market	+4.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.944xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 505 avg 3 books
05	Jj Bleday CIN Lineup pending	CIN vs ATLCarlos Carrasco · slot 6	--Fangorn	14.1%market	+3.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.002xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 580 avg 3 books
06	Ozzie Albies ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs CINAndrew Abbott · slot 5	--Fangorn	13.5%market	+3.5pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.002xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 610 avg 3 books
07	Giancarlo Stanton NYY Lineup pending	NYY vs TBRyan Pepiot · slot 4	--Fangorn	24.3%market	+2.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.012xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 295 avg 3 books
08	Aaron Judge NYY Lineup pending	NYY vs TBRyan Pepiot · slot 2	--Fangorn	29.6%market	+1.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.012xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 225 avg 3 books
09	Michael Harris II ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs CINAndrew Abbott · slot 8	--Fangorn	13.0%market	+1.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.002xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 640 avg 3 books
10	Corey Seager TEX Lineup pending	TEX vs SEAGeorge Kirby · slot 2	--Fangorn	22.1%market	+0.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.944xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 335 avg 3 books
11	Elly De La Cruz CIN Lineup pending	CIN vs ATLCarlos Carrasco · slot 1	--Fangorn	15.2%market	+0.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.002xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 535 avg 3 books
12	Will Benson CIN Lineup pending	CIN vs ATLCarlos Carrasco · slot 7	--Fangorn	15.3%market	-0.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.002xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 530 avg 3 books
13	Tj Friedl CIN Lineup pending	CIN vs ATLCarlos Carrasco · slot 2	--Fangorn	13.3%market	-0.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.002xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 625 avg 3 books
14	Ben Rice NYY Lineup pending	NYY vs TBRyan Pepiot · slot 6	--Fangorn	17.7%market	-0.5pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.012xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 445 avg 3 books
15	Trent Grisham NYY Lineup pending	NYY vs TBRyan Pepiot · slot 7	--Fangorn	17.3%market	-0.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.012xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 460 avg 3 books
16	Cody Bellinger NYY Lineup pending	NYY vs TBRyan Pepiot · slot 3	--Fangorn	17.4%market	-0.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.012xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 455 avg 3 books
17	Sean Murphy ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs CINAndrew Abbott · slot 7	--Fangorn	16.7%market	-0.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.002xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 480 avg 3 books
18	Spencer Steer CIN Lineup pending	CIN vs ATLCarlos Carrasco · slot 4	--Fangorn	14.6%market	-1.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.002xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 560 avg 3 books
19	Tyler Stephenson CIN Lineup pending	CIN vs ATLCarlos Carrasco · slot 5	--Fangorn	14.5%market	-1.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.002xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 565 avg 3 books
20	Jake Fraley TB Lineup pending	TB vs NYYMarcus Stroman · slot 6	--Fangorn	12.7%market	-1.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.012xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 660 avg 3 books
21	Jonathan Aranda TB Lineup pending	TB vs NYYMarcus Stroman · slot 3	--Fangorn	14.5%market	-1.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.012xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 565 avg 3 books
22	Eugenio Suárez CIN Lineup pending	CIN vs ATLCarlos Carrasco · slot 3	--Fangorn	22.2%market	-1.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.002xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 335 avg 3 books
23	José Caballero NYY Lineup pending	NYY vs TBRyan Pepiot · slot 1	--Fangorn	9.1%market	-1.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.012xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 960 avg 3 books
24	Cedric Mullins TB Lineup pending	TB vs NYYMarcus Stroman · slot 5	--Fangorn	15.1%market	-1.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.012xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 540 avg 3 books
25	Brendan Donovan SEA Lineup pending	SEA vs TEXKumar Rocker · slot 6	--Fangorn	10.3%market	-1.5pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.944xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 835 avg 3 books
26	Josh Naylor SEA Lineup pending	SEA vs TEXKumar Rocker · slot 4	--Fangorn	16.7%market	-1.5pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.944xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 480 avg 3 books
27	Gavin Lux TB Lineup pending	TB vs NYYMarcus Stroman · slot 7	--Fangorn	7.7%market	-1.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.012xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
28	Luke Raley SEA Lineup pending	SEA vs TEXKumar Rocker · slot 8	--Fangorn	15.1%market	-1.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.944xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 540 avg 3 books
29	Mike Yastrzemski ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs CINAndrew Abbott · slot 6	--Fangorn	14.6%market	-1.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.002xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 560 avg 3 books
30	Dominic Canzone SEA Lineup pending	SEA vs TEXKumar Rocker · slot 7	--Fangorn	15.7%market	-1.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.944xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 515 avg 3 books
31	Drake Baldwin ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs CINAndrew Abbott · slot 3	--Fangorn	18.2%market	-1.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.002xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 450 avg 3 books
32	Evan Carter TEX Lineup pending	TEX vs SEAGeorge Kirby · slot 6	--Fangorn	12.9%market	-1.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.944xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 675 avg 3 books
33	Cal Raleigh SEA Lineup pending	SEA vs TEXKumar Rocker · slot 3	--Fangorn	27.0%market	-1.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.944xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 270 avg 3 books
34	Brandon Nimmo TEX Lineup pending	TEX vs SEAGeorge Kirby · slot 3	--Fangorn	16.7%market	-2.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.944xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 500 avg 3 books
35	Randy Arozarena SEA Lineup pending	SEA vs TEXKumar Rocker · slot 5	--Fangorn	15.2%market	-2.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.944xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 560 avg 3 books
36	Rob Refsnyder SEA Lineup pending	SEA vs TEXKumar Rocker · slot 2	--Fangorn	15.3%market	-2.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.944xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 555 avg 3 books
37	Yandy Díaz TB Lineup pending	TB vs NYYMarcus Stroman · slot 2	--Fangorn	15.6%market	-2.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.012xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 540 avg 3 books
38	Matt Olson ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs CINAndrew Abbott · slot 2	--Fangorn	21.7%market	-2.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.002xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 360 avg 3 books
39	Josh Jung TEX Lineup pending	TEX vs SEAGeorge Kirby · slot 7	--Fangorn	14.2%market	-2.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.944xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 605 avg 3 books
40	Julio Rodríguez SEA Lineup pending	SEA vs TEXKumar Rocker · slot 1	--Fangorn	18.9%market	-2.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.944xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 430 avg 3 books
41	Wyatt Langford TEX Lineup pending	TEX vs SEAGeorge Kirby · slot 1	--Fangorn	15.9%market	-2.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.944xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 530 avg 3 books
42	Junior Caminero TB Lineup pending	TB vs NYYMarcus Stroman · slot 4	--Fangorn	24.7%market	-2.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.012xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 305 avg 3 books
43	Danny Jansen TEX Lineup pending	TEX vs SEAGeorge Kirby · slot 8	--Fangorn	15.4%market	-2.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.944xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 550 avg 3 books
44	Jake Burger TEX Lineup pending	TEX vs SEAGeorge Kirby · slot 4	--Fangorn	21.3%market	-4.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.944xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 370 avg 3 books
45	Chandler Simpson TB Lineup pending	TB vs NYYMarcus Stroman · slot 1	--Fangorn	8.0%market	-4.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.012xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books

Top saved signals

5 value rows

01 Ronald Acuña Jr.ATL vs CIN · FanDuel

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp 02 Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY vs TB · FanDuel

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp 03 Giancarlo StantonNYY vs TB · FanDuel

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp 04 Austin RileyATL vs CIN · FanDuel

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp 05 Joc PedersonTEX vs SEA · FanDuel

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp

Data context

0 sample flags

Status0roster/transaction rows

Lineups0confirmed starters

Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.