Mithrandir Metrics
Valinor lane 2025-08-07 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
52
Matched
156
Lineups
0
HR BOARD 2025-08-07 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER armed; waiting on confirmed lineups
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research

Selective Lane

Valinor is available, but quiet today.

Valinor covers Home Run Market Gaps as a selective lane but didn't qualify any rows on today's slate. Try Palantir or check back tomorrow.

Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Lineups not posted

The in-lineup filter is armed, but no confirmed lineup artifact exists for this date yet. The board is showing the projected pool honestly.

Home-run board · largest Valinor gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01
Ronald Acuña Jr. ATL
Lineup pending
ATL vs MIAEury Pérez · slot 1
 --Valinor 20.0%market +5.2pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.958xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 380 avg 3 books
02
Austin Riley ATL
Lineup pending
ATL vs MIAEury Pérez · slot 4
 --Valinor 17.2%market +4.3pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.958xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 460 avg 3 books
03
Marcell Ozuna PIT
Lineup pending
PIT vs CINBrady Singer · slot 2
 --Valinor 21.1%market +3.5pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.958xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 355 avg 3 books
04
Ozzie Albies ATL
Lineup pending
ATL vs MIAEury Pérez · slot 5
 --Valinor 13.5%market +3.5pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.958xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 610 avg 3 books
05
Jj Bleday CIN
Lineup pending
CIN vs PITPaul Skenes · slot 6
 --Valinor 14.1%market +2.7pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.958xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 580 avg 3 books
06
Michael Harris II ATL
Lineup pending
ATL vs MIAEury Pérez · slot 8
 --Valinor 13.0%market +2.0pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.958xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 640 avg 3 books
07
Bryan Reynolds PIT
Lineup pending
PIT vs CINBrady Singer · slot 5
 --Valinor 13.7%market -0.3pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.958xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 605 avg 3 books
08
Christopher Morel MIA
Lineup pending
MIA vs ATLCarlos Carrasco · slot 5
 --Valinor 17.2%market -0.5pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.958xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 460 avg 3 books
09
Kyle Stowers MIA
Lineup pending
MIA vs ATLCarlos Carrasco · slot 3
 --Valinor 17.7%market -0.6pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.958xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 445 avg 3 books
10
Jakob Marsee MIA
Lineup pending
MIA vs ATLCarlos Carrasco · slot 2
 --Valinor 11.8%market -0.8pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.958xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 750 avg 3 books
11
Mike Yastrzemski ATL
Lineup pending
ATL vs MIAEury Pérez · slot 6
 --Valinor 14.6%market -1.3pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.958xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 560 avg 3 books
12
Keibert Ruiz WSH
Lineup pending
WSH vs ATHJacob Lopez · slot 5
 --Valinor 10.7%market -1.4pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.959xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 795 avg 3 books
13
Jacob Wilson ATH
Lineup pending
ATH vs WSHMitchell Parker · slot 6
 --Valinor 9.9%market -1.4pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.959xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 870 avg 3 books
14
Dylan Crews WSH
Lineup pending
WSH vs ATHJacob Lopez · slot 7
 --Valinor 12.4%market -1.4pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.959xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 705 avg 3 books
15
Drake Baldwin ATL
Lineup pending
ATL vs MIAEury Pérez · slot 3
 --Valinor 17.6%market -1.4pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.958xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 450 avg 3 books
16
Austin Wynns ATH
Lineup pending
ATH vs WSHMitchell Parker · slot 7
 --Valinor 12.3%market -1.5pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.959xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 715 avg 3 books
17
Heriberto Hernández MIA
Lineup pending
MIA vs ATLCarlos Carrasco · slot 6
 --Valinor 13.6%market -1.5pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.958xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 610 avg 3 books
18
Connor Norby MIA
Lineup pending
MIA vs ATLCarlos Carrasco · slot 7
 --Valinor 13.8%market -1.5pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.958xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 625 avg 3 books
19
Agustín Ramírez MIA
Lineup pending
MIA vs ATLCarlos Carrasco · slot 4
 --Valinor 15.2%market -1.6pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.958xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 535 avg 3 books
20
Edgar Quero CWS
Lineup pending
CWS vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 6
 --Valinor 7.8%market -1.6pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.943xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1125 avg 3 books
21
Shea Langeliers ATH
Lineup pending
ATH vs WSHMitchell Parker · slot 3
 --Valinor 22.4%market -1.7pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.959xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 330 avg 3 books
22
Oneil Cruz PIT
Lineup pending
PIT vs CINBrady Singer · slot 9
 --Valinor 13.3%market -1.7pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.958xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 625 avg 3 books
23
Ryan O'Hearn PIT
Lineup pending
PIT vs CINBrady Singer · slot 3
 --Valinor 14.0%market -1.8pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.958xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 585 avg 3 books
24
Spencer Horwitz PIT
Lineup pending
PIT vs CINBrady Singer · slot 6
 --Valinor 13.3%market -1.8pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.958xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 650 avg 3 books
25
José Tena WSH
Lineup pending
WSH vs ATHJacob Lopez · slot 6
 --Valinor 7.8%market -1.8pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.959xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1130 avg 3 books
26
Brent Rooker ATH
Lineup pending
ATH vs WSHMitchell Parker · slot 2
 --Valinor 22.7%market -1.8pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.959xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 340 avg 3 books
27
Kyle Teel CWS
Lineup pending
CWS vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 2
 --Valinor 14.1%market -1.8pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.943xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 610 avg 3 books
28
Matt Olson ATL
Lineup pending
ATL vs MIAEury Pérez · slot 2
 --Valinor 21.7%market -2.0pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.958xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 360 avg 3 books
29
Andrew Benintendi CWS
Lineup pending
CWS vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 4
 --Valinor 14.3%market -2.1pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.943xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 600 avg 3 books
30
Chase Meidroth CWS
Lineup pending
CWS vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 1
 --Valinor 8.0%market -2.1pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.943xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
31
Daylen Lile WSH
Lineup pending
WSH vs ATHJacob Lopez · slot 3
 --Valinor 12.7%market -2.1pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.959xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 690 avg 3 books
32
Luis García Jr. WSH
Lineup pending
WSH vs ATHJacob Lopez · slot 4
 --Valinor 13.7%market -2.1pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.959xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 630 avg 3 books
33
Joey Bart PIT
Lineup pending
PIT vs CINBrady Singer · slot 7
 --Valinor 10.8%market -2.2pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.958xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 825 avg 3 books
34
Zack Gelof ATH
Lineup pending
ATH vs WSHMitchell Parker · slot 9
 --Valinor 13.9%market -2.2pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.959xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 620 avg 3 books
35
Sean Murphy ATL
Lineup pending
ATL vs MIAEury Pérez · slot 7
 --Valinor 17.1%market -2.2pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.958xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 485 avg 3 books
36
Brandon Lowe PIT
Lineup pending
PIT vs CINBrady Singer · slot 4
 --Valinor 21.5%market -2.2pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.958xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 365 avg 3 books
37
Cj Abrams WSH
Lineup pending
WSH vs ATHJacob Lopez · slot 1
 --Valinor 14.7%market -2.3pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.959xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 580 avg 3 books
38
Tyler Soderstrom ATH
Lineup pending
ATH vs WSHMitchell Parker · slot 5
 --Valinor 16.3%market -2.4pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.959xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 515 avg 3 books
39
Lawrence Butler ATH
Lineup pending
ATH vs WSHMitchell Parker · slot 4
 --Valinor 17.0%market -2.4pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.959xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
40
James Wood WSH
Lineup pending
WSH vs ATHJacob Lopez · slot 2
 --Valinor 17.9%market -2.4pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.959xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 460 avg 3 books
41
Tj Friedl CIN
Lineup pending
CIN vs PITPaul Skenes · slot 2
 --Valinor 13.8%market -2.5pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.958xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 625 avg 3 books
42
Colson Montgomery CWS
Lineup pending
CWS vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 3
 --Valinor 25.6%market -2.5pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.943xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 290 avg 3 books
43
Lenyn Sosa CWS
Lineup pending
CWS vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 7
 --Valinor 14.5%market -2.6pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.943xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 590 avg 3 books
44
Elly De La Cruz CIN
Lineup pending
CIN vs PITPaul Skenes · slot 1
 --Valinor 15.9%market -2.6pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.958xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 530 avg 3 books
45
Austin Hays CWS
Lineup pending
CWS vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 5
 --Valinor 13.3%market -2.7pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.943xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 650 avg 3 books
46
Will Benson CIN
Lineup pending
CIN vs PITPaul Skenes · slot 7
 --Valinor 15.9%market -2.8pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.958xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 530 avg 3 books
47
Jake Mangum PIT
Lineup pending
PIT vs CINBrady Singer · slot 1
 --Valinor 8.0%market -2.9pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.958xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
48
Nick Kurtz ATH
Lineup pending
ATH vs WSHMitchell Parker · slot 1
 --Valinor 28.2%market -3.3pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.959xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 255 avg 3 books
49
Spencer Steer CIN
Lineup pending
CIN vs PITPaul Skenes · slot 4
 --Valinor 15.2%market -3.5pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.958xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 560 avg 3 books
50
Tyler Stephenson CIN
Lineup pending
CIN vs PITPaul Skenes · slot 5
 --Valinor 15.0%market -3.5pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.958xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 565 avg 3 books
51
Xavier Edwards MIA
Lineup pending
MIA vs ATLCarlos Carrasco · slot 1
 --Valinor 8.0%market -4.2pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.958xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
52
Eugenio Suárez CIN
Lineup pending
CIN vs PITPaul Skenes · slot 3
 --Valinor 22.7%market -4.6pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.958xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 340 avg 3 books

Data context

0 sample flags
Status0roster/transaction rows
Lineups0confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.