Mithrandir Metrics

HR BOARD 2025-08-14 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER armed; waiting on confirmed lineups

Lane Health 2026-09-01

Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable

Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable

Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research

Selective Lane

Valinor is available, but quiet today.

Valinor covers Home Run Market Gaps as a selective lane but didn't qualify any rows on today's slate. Try Palantir or check back tomorrow.

Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.

Lineups not posted

The in-lineup filter is armed, but no confirmed lineup artifact exists for this date yet. The board is showing the projected pool honestly.

Home-run board · largest Valinor gap versus market

#	Player	Matchup	Sim	Implied	Gap	Three lanes · P/F/V	Spread	Park	Weather	Recent	Best line
01	Juan Soto NYM Lineup pending	NYM vs ATLBryce Elder · slot 1	--Valinor	23.2%market	+6.5pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.962xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 315 avg 3 books
02	José Ramírez CLE Lineup pending	CLE vs MIAEdward Cabrera · slot 1	--Valinor	19.4%market	+5.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.952xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 395 avg 3 books
03	Riley Greene DET Lineup pending	DET vs MINBailey Ober · slot 4	--Valinor	18.0%market	+5.0pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.977xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 435 avg 3 books
04	Corbin Carroll AZ Lineup pending	AZ vs COLBradley Blalock · slot 1	--Valinor	17.6%market	+4.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.122xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 445 avg 3 books
05	Matt Wallner MIN Lineup pending	MIN vs DETTarik Skubal · slot 2	--Valinor	21.4%market	+4.0pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.977xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 350 avg 3 books
06	Anthony Santander TOR Lineup pending	TOR vs CHCMatthew Boyd · slot 3	--Valinor	20.1%market	+3.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.023xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 380 avg 3 books
07	Josh Bell MIN Lineup pending	MIN vs DETTarik Skubal · slot 4	--Valinor	15.3%market	+3.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.977xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 530 avg 3 books
08	Jesús Sánchez TOR Lineup pending	TOR vs CHCMatthew Boyd · slot 5	--Valinor	13.5%market	+3.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.023xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 615 avg 3 books
09	Ronald Acuña Jr. ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs NYMKodai Senga · slot 1	--Valinor	20.0%market	+2.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.962xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 380 avg 3 books
10	Jorge Polanco NYM Lineup pending	NYM vs ATLBryce Elder · slot 4	--Valinor	17.3%market	+2.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.962xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 455 avg 3 books
11	Ozzie Albies ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs NYMKodai Senga · slot 5	--Valinor	13.5%market	+2.5pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.962xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 610 avg 3 books
12	Austin Riley ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs NYMKodai Senga · slot 4	--Valinor	17.2%market	+2.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.962xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 460 avg 3 books
13	Pavin Smith AZ Lineup pending	AZ vs COLBradley Blalock · slot 6	--Valinor	14.1%market	+1.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.122xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 580 avg 3 books
14	Lourdes Gurriel Jr. AZ Lineup pending	AZ vs COLBradley Blalock · slot 4	--Valinor	15.0%market	+1.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.122xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 540 avg 3 books
15	Adrian Del Castillo AZ Lineup pending	AZ vs COLBradley Blalock · slot 7	--Valinor	13.8%market	+1.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.122xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 595 avg 3 books
16	Carlos Santana AZ Lineup pending	AZ vs COLBradley Blalock · slot 5	--Valinor	14.2%market	+1.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.122xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 575 avg 3 books
17	Ketel Marte AZ Lineup pending	AZ vs COLBradley Blalock · slot 2	--Valinor	20.7%market	+1.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.122xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 365 avg 3 books
18	Michael Busch CHC Lineup pending	CHC vs TORMax Scherzer · slot 3	--Valinor	19.2%market	+1.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.023xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 400 avg 3 books
19	Geraldo Perdomo AZ Lineup pending	AZ vs COLBradley Blalock · slot 3	--Valinor	9.7%market	+1.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.122xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 900 avg 3 books
20	Michael Harris II ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs NYMKodai Senga · slot 8	--Valinor	13.0%market	+1.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.962xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 640 avg 3 books
21	Hunter Goodman COL Lineup pending	COL vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 2	--Valinor	20.4%market	+0.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.122xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 370 avg 3 books
22	Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC Lineup pending	CHC vs TORMax Scherzer · slot 9	--Valinor	14.6%market	+0.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.023xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 560 avg 3 books
23	Ian Happ CHC Lineup pending	CHC vs TORMax Scherzer · slot 4	--Valinor	14.9%market	+0.5pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.023xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 545 avg 3 books
24	Luis Robert Jr. NYM Lineup pending	NYM vs ATLBryce Elder · slot 9	--Valinor	15.3%market	+0.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.962xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 530 avg 3 books
25	Dansby Swanson CHC Lineup pending	CHC vs TORMax Scherzer · slot 6	--Valinor	13.7%market	+0.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.023xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 600 avg 3 books
26	Brenton Doyle COL Lineup pending	COL vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 5	--Valinor	13.3%market	-0.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.122xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 625 avg 3 books
27	Ezequiel Tovar COL Lineup pending	COL vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 4	--Valinor	13.3%market	-0.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.122xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 625 avg 3 books
28	Jordan Beck COL Lineup pending	COL vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 7	--Valinor	11.0%market	-0.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.122xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 770 avg 3 books
29	Willi Castro COL Lineup pending	COL vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 1	--Valinor	10.9%market	-0.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.122xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 780 avg 3 books
30	Carson Kelly CHC Lineup pending	CHC vs TORMax Scherzer · slot 7	--Valinor	13.2%market	-0.5pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.023xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 630 avg 3 books
31	Alex Bregman CHC Lineup pending	CHC vs TORMax Scherzer · slot 5	--Valinor	15.5%market	-0.5pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.023xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 525 avg 3 books
32	Kerry Carpenter DET Lineup pending	DET vs MINBailey Ober · slot 3	--Valinor	21.5%market	-0.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.977xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 350 avg 3 books
33	Colt Keith DET Lineup pending	DET vs MINBailey Ober · slot 6	--Valinor	11.2%market	-0.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.977xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 755 avg 3 books
34	Mickey Moniak COL Lineup pending	COL vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 3	--Valinor	18.6%market	-0.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.122xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 420 avg 3 books
35	Seiya Suzuki CHC Lineup pending	CHC vs TORMax Scherzer · slot 2	--Valinor	18.1%market	-0.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.023xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 435 avg 3 books
36	Zach McKinstry DET Lineup pending	DET vs MINBailey Ober · slot 1	--Valinor	10.0%market	-0.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.977xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 865 avg 3 books
37	Davis Schneider TOR Lineup pending	TOR vs CHCMatthew Boyd · slot 7	--Valinor	15.6%market	-1.0pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.023xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 520 avg 3 books
38	Edouard Julien COL Lineup pending	COL vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 6	--Valinor	12.2%market	-1.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.122xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 685 avg 3 books
39	George Springer TOR Lineup pending	TOR vs CHCMatthew Boyd · slot 1	--Valinor	18.2%market	-1.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.023xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 430 avg 3 books
40	Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR Lineup pending	TOR vs CHCMatthew Boyd · slot 2	--Valinor	17.1%market	-1.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.023xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 465 avg 3 books
41	Daulton Varsho TOR Lineup pending	TOR vs CHCMatthew Boyd · slot 4	--Valinor	18.6%market	-1.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.023xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 420 avg 3 books
42	Keibert Ruiz WSH Lineup pending	WSH vs PHIJesús Luzardo · slot 5	--Valinor	10.7%market	-1.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.012xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 795 avg 3 books
43	Dylan Crews WSH Lineup pending	WSH vs PHIJesús Luzardo · slot 7	--Valinor	12.4%market	-1.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.012xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 705 avg 3 books
44	Dillon Dingler DET Lineup pending	DET vs MINBailey Ober · slot 7	--Valinor	11.9%market	-1.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.977xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 740 avg 3 books
45	Nico Hoerner CHC Lineup pending	CHC vs TORMax Scherzer · slot 1	--Valinor	7.7%market	-1.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.023xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
46	Jahmai Jones DET Lineup pending	DET vs MINBailey Ober · slot 2	--Valinor	16.8%market	-1.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.977xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 475 avg 3 books
47	Angel Martínez CLE Lineup pending	CLE vs MIAEdward Cabrera · slot 7	--Valinor	9.5%market	-1.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.952xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 915 avg 3 books
48	Brett Baty NYM Lineup pending	NYM vs ATLBryce Elder · slot 8	--Valinor	13.5%market	-1.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.962xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 615 avg 3 books
49	Daniel Schneemann CLE Lineup pending	CLE vs MIAEdward Cabrera · slot 6	--Valinor	12.0%market	-1.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.952xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 700 avg 3 books
50	Spencer Torkelson DET Lineup pending	DET vs MINBailey Ober · slot 5	--Valinor	17.4%market	-1.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.977xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 455 avg 3 books
51	Nathan Lukes TOR Lineup pending	TOR vs CHCMatthew Boyd · slot 6	--Valinor	10.4%market	-1.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.023xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 825 avg 3 books
52	Mike Yastrzemski ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs NYMKodai Senga · slot 6	--Valinor	14.6%market	-1.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.962xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 560 avg 3 books
53	José Tena WSH Lineup pending	WSH vs PHIJesús Luzardo · slot 6	--Valinor	7.8%market	-1.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.012xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 1130 avg 3 books
54	Kyle Manzardo CLE Lineup pending	CLE vs MIAEdward Cabrera · slot 3	--Valinor	19.8%market	-1.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.952xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 405 avg 3 books
55	Drake Baldwin ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs NYMKodai Senga · slot 3	--Valinor	18.2%market	-1.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.962xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 450 avg 3 books
56	Bo Naylor CLE Lineup pending	CLE vs MIAEdward Cabrera · slot 4	--Valinor	15.8%market	-1.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.952xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 535 avg 3 books
57	Luke Keaschall MIN Lineup pending	MIN vs DETTarik Skubal · slot 1	--Valinor	12.2%market	-1.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.977xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 690 avg 3 books
58	Daylen Lile WSH Lineup pending	WSH vs PHIJesús Luzardo · slot 3	--Valinor	12.7%market	-2.0pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.012xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 690 avg 3 books
59	Steven Kwan CLE Lineup pending	CLE vs MIAEdward Cabrera · slot 2	--Valinor	9.2%market	-2.0pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.952xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 985 avg 3 books
60	Luis García Jr. WSH Lineup pending	WSH vs PHIJesús Luzardo · slot 4	--Valinor	13.7%market	-2.0pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.012xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 630 avg 3 books
61	Ryan Jeffers MIN Lineup pending	MIN vs DETTarik Skubal · slot 6	--Valinor	14.1%market	-2.0pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.977xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 610 avg 3 books
62	Mark Vientos NYM Lineup pending	NYM vs ATLBryce Elder · slot 6	--Valinor	18.2%market	-2.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.962xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 450 avg 3 books
63	Bo Bichette NYM Lineup pending	NYM vs ATLBryce Elder · slot 3	--Valinor	13.0%market	-2.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.962xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 670 avg 3 books
64	Cj Abrams WSH Lineup pending	WSH vs PHIJesús Luzardo · slot 1	--Valinor	14.7%market	-2.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.012xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 580 avg 3 books
65	Royce Lewis MIN Lineup pending	MIN vs DETTarik Skubal · slot 5	--Valinor	18.4%market	-2.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.977xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
66	James Wood WSH Lineup pending	WSH vs PHIJesús Luzardo · slot 2	--Valinor	17.9%market	-2.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.012xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 460 avg 3 books
67	Marcus Semien NYM Lineup pending	NYM vs ATLBryce Elder · slot 5	--Valinor	14.4%market	-2.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.962xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 595 avg 3 books
68	Jakob Marsee MIA Lineup pending	MIA vs CLETanner Bibee · slot 2	--Valinor	11.8%market	-2.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.952xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 750 avg 3 books
69	Byron Buxton MIN Lineup pending	MIN vs DETTarik Skubal · slot 3	--Valinor	23.3%market	-2.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.977xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 330 avg 3 books
70	Francisco Alvarez NYM Lineup pending	NYM vs ATLBryce Elder · slot 7	--Valinor	17.2%market	-2.5pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.962xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 480 avg 3 books
71	Francisco Lindor NYM Lineup pending	NYM vs ATLBryce Elder · slot 2	--Valinor	19.6%market	-2.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.962xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 410 avg 3 books
72	Matt Olson ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs NYMKodai Senga · slot 2	--Valinor	21.7%market	-2.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.962xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 360 avg 3 books
73	Sean Murphy ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs NYMKodai Senga · slot 7	--Valinor	17.1%market	-2.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.962xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 485 avg 3 books
74	Trevor Larnach MIN Lineup pending	MIN vs DETTarik Skubal · slot 7	--Valinor	13.8%market	-2.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.977xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 625 avg 3 books
75	David Fry CLE Lineup pending	CLE vs MIAEdward Cabrera · slot 5	--Valinor	17.0%market	-2.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.952xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
76	Kyle Stowers MIA Lineup pending	MIA vs CLETanner Bibee · slot 3	--Valinor	18.4%market	-3.0pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.952xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
77	Christopher Morel MIA Lineup pending	MIA vs CLETanner Bibee · slot 5	--Valinor	17.7%market	-3.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.952xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
78	Heriberto Hernández MIA Lineup pending	MIA vs CLETanner Bibee · slot 6	--Valinor	14.1%market	-3.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.952xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 610 avg 3 books
79	Connor Norby MIA Lineup pending	MIA vs CLETanner Bibee · slot 7	--Valinor	13.8%market	-3.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.952xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 625 avg 3 books
80	Agustín Ramírez MIA Lineup pending	MIA vs CLETanner Bibee · slot 4	--Valinor	15.8%market	-3.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.952xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 535 avg 3 books
81	Xavier Edwards MIA Lineup pending	MIA vs CLETanner Bibee · slot 1	--Valinor	8.0%market	-4.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.952xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books

Top saved signals

5 value rows

01 Juan SotoNYM vs ATL · FanDuel

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp 02 José RamírezCLE vs MIA · FanDuel

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp 03 Matt WallnerMIN vs DET · FanDuel

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp 04 Anthony SantanderTOR vs CHC · FanDuel

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp 05 Riley GreeneDET vs MIN · FanDuel

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp

Data context

0 sample flags

Status0roster/transaction rows

Lineups0confirmed starters

Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.