Mithrandir Metrics

HR BOARD 2026-03-24 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER armed; waiting on confirmed lineups

Lane Health 2026-09-02

Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable

Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable

Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research

Selective Lane

Valinor is available, but quiet today.

Valinor covers Home Run Market Gaps as a selective lane but didn't qualify any rows on today's slate. Try Palantir or check back tomorrow.

Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.

Lineups not posted

The in-lineup filter is armed, but no confirmed lineup artifact exists for this date yet. The board is showing the projected pool honestly.

Home-run board · largest Valinor gap versus market

#	Player	Matchup	Sim	Implied	Gap	Three lanes · P/F/V	Spread	Park	Weather	Recent	Best line
01	Corey Seager TEX Lineup pending	TEX vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 2	--Valinor	22.1%market	+6.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.031xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 335 avg 3 books
02	Ronald Acuña Jr. ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs TBRyan Pepiot · slot 1	--Valinor	20.0%market	+5.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.010xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 380 avg 3 books
03	José Ramírez CLE Lineup pending	CLE vs AZMichael Soroka · slot 1	--Valinor	19.4%market	+5.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.000xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 395 avg 3 books
04	Mickey Moniak COL Lineup pending	COL vs DETJustin Verlander · slot 3	--Valinor	18.1%market	+5.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.130xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 430 avg 3 books
05	Riley Greene DET Lineup pending	DET vs COLTomoyuki Sugano · slot 4	--Valinor	18.0%market	+5.0pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.130xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 435 avg 3 books
06	Kerry Carpenter DET Lineup pending	DET vs COLTomoyuki Sugano · slot 3	--Valinor	20.9%market	+4.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.130xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 360 avg 3 books
07	Drake Baldwin ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs TBRyan Pepiot · slot 3	--Valinor	17.2%market	+4.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.010xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 460 avg 3 books
08	Vinnie Pasquantino KC Lineup pending	KC vs TEXJack Leiter · slot 3	--Valinor	17.2%market	+4.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.031xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 460 avg 3 books
09	Austin Riley ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs TBRyan Pepiot · slot 4	--Valinor	17.2%market	+4.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.010xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 460 avg 3 books
10	Freddie Freeman LAD Lineup pending	LAD vs LAAJack Kochanowicz · slot 2	--Valinor	16.3%market	+4.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.954xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 490 avg 3 books
11	Trent Grisham NYY Lineup pending	NYY vs CHCEdward Cabrera · slot 7	--Valinor	17.0%market	+3.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.985xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 465 avg 3 books
12	Giancarlo Stanton NYY Lineup pending	NYY vs CHCEdward Cabrera · slot 4	--Valinor	24.3%market	+3.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.985xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 295 avg 3 books
13	Ozzie Albies ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs TBRyan Pepiot · slot 5	--Valinor	13.5%market	+3.5pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.010xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 610 avg 3 books
14	Joc Pederson TEX Lineup pending	TEX vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 5	--Valinor	15.9%market	+3.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.031xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 505 avg 3 books
15	Cody Bellinger NYY Lineup pending	NYY vs CHCEdward Cabrera · slot 3	--Valinor	17.0%market	+3.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.985xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 465 avg 3 books
16	Jake Burger TEX Lineup pending	TEX vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 4	--Valinor	20.2%market	+3.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.031xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 375 avg 3 books
17	Edouard Julien COL Lineup pending	COL vs DETJustin Verlander · slot 6	--Valinor	12.2%market	+3.0pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.130xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 690 avg 3 books
18	Jahmai Jones DET Lineup pending	DET vs COLTomoyuki Sugano · slot 2	--Valinor	16.6%market	+2.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.130xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 480 avg 3 books
19	Willi Castro COL Lineup pending	COL vs DETJustin Verlander · slot 1	--Valinor	10.9%market	+2.5pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.130xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 790 avg 3 books
20	Will Smith LAD Lineup pending	LAD vs LAAJack Kochanowicz · slot 9	--Valinor	13.9%market	+2.5pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.954xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 590 avg 3 books
21	Ben Rice NYY Lineup pending	NYY vs CHCEdward Cabrera · slot 6	--Valinor	17.3%market	+2.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.985xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 455 avg 3 books
22	Kyle Tucker LAD Lineup pending	LAD vs LAAJack Kochanowicz · slot 3	--Valinor	18.7%market	+1.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.954xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 415 avg 3 books
23	Mookie Betts LAD Lineup pending	LAD vs LAAJack Kochanowicz · slot 5	--Valinor	16.0%market	+1.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.954xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 500 avg 3 books
24	Jazz Chisholm Jr. NYY Lineup pending	NYY vs CHCEdward Cabrera · slot 5	--Valinor	18.8%market	+1.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.985xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 410 avg 3 books
25	Colt Keith DET Lineup pending	DET vs COLTomoyuki Sugano · slot 6	--Valinor	11.2%market	+1.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.130xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 760 avg 3 books
26	Spencer Torkelson DET Lineup pending	DET vs COLTomoyuki Sugano · slot 5	--Valinor	17.0%market	+1.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.130xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 465 avg 3 books
27	Brenton Doyle COL Lineup pending	COL vs DETJustin Verlander · slot 5	--Valinor	13.3%market	+1.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.130xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 625 avg 3 books
28	Brandon Nimmo TEX Lineup pending	TEX vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 3	--Valinor	15.8%market	+1.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.031xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 510 avg 3 books
29	Zach McKinstry DET Lineup pending	DET vs COLTomoyuki Sugano · slot 1	--Valinor	9.9%market	+1.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.130xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 880 avg 3 books
30	Dillon Dingler DET Lineup pending	DET vs COLTomoyuki Sugano · slot 7	--Valinor	11.4%market	+1.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.130xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 750 avg 3 books
31	Michael Harris II ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs TBRyan Pepiot · slot 8	--Valinor	13.0%market	+0.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.010xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 640 avg 3 books
32	Matt Wallner MIN Lineup pending	MIN vs BOSRanger Suarez · slot 2	--Valinor	21.4%market	+0.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.964xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 350 avg 3 books
33	Steven Kwan CLE Lineup pending	CLE vs AZMichael Soroka · slot 2	--Valinor	8.7%market	+0.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.000xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 1005 avg 3 books
34	Evan Carter TEX Lineup pending	TEX vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 6	--Valinor	12.3%market	+0.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.031xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 680 avg 3 books
35	David Fry CLE Lineup pending	CLE vs AZMichael Soroka · slot 5	--Valinor	16.2%market	+0.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.000xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 495 avg 3 books
36	Lane Thomas KC Lineup pending	KC vs TEXJack Leiter · slot 5	--Valinor	14.4%market	+0.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.031xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 570 avg 3 books
37	Josh Jung TEX Lineup pending	TEX vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 7	--Valinor	13.6%market	-0.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.031xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 605 avg 3 books
38	Wyatt Langford TEX Lineup pending	TEX vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 1	--Valinor	15.3%market	-0.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.031xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 530 avg 3 books
39	Luke Keaschall MIN Lineup pending	MIN vs BOSRanger Suarez · slot 1	--Valinor	12.2%market	-0.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.964xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 690 avg 3 books
40	Bobby Witt Jr. KC Lineup pending	KC vs TEXJack Leiter · slot 1	--Valinor	17.9%market	-0.5pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.031xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 440 avg 3 books
41	Danny Jansen TEX Lineup pending	TEX vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 8	--Valinor	14.8%market	-0.5pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.031xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 550 avg 3 books
42	Junior Caminero TB Lineup pending	TB vs ATLGrant Holmes · slot 4	--Valinor	24.1%market	-0.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.010xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 300 avg 3 books
43	Jonathan Aranda TB Lineup pending	TB vs ATLGrant Holmes · slot 3	--Valinor	14.5%market	-0.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.010xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 565 avg 3 books
44	Hunter Goodman COL Lineup pending	COL vs DETJustin Verlander · slot 2	--Valinor	21.0%market	-0.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.130xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 360 avg 3 books
45	Jake Fraley TB Lineup pending	TB vs ATLGrant Holmes · slot 6	--Valinor	12.7%market	-0.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.010xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 660 avg 3 books
46	Daniel Schneemann CLE Lineup pending	CLE vs AZMichael Soroka · slot 6	--Valinor	12.0%market	-0.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.000xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 700 avg 3 books
47	Ezequiel Tovar COL Lineup pending	COL vs DETJustin Verlander · slot 4	--Valinor	13.3%market	-0.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.130xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 625 avg 3 books
48	Salvador Perez KC Lineup pending	KC vs TEXJack Leiter · slot 4	--Valinor	18.2%market	-1.0pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.031xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 430 avg 3 books
49	Jordan Beck COL Lineup pending	COL vs DETJustin Verlander · slot 7	--Valinor	11.0%market	-1.0pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.130xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 770 avg 3 books
50	Angel Martínez CLE Lineup pending	CLE vs AZMichael Soroka · slot 7	--Valinor	9.5%market	-1.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.000xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 915 avg 3 books
51	Isaac Collins KC Lineup pending	KC vs TEXJack Leiter · slot 2	--Valinor	10.1%market	-1.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.031xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 850 avg 3 books
52	Mike Yastrzemski ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs TBRyan Pepiot · slot 6	--Valinor	14.6%market	-1.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.010xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 560 avg 3 books
53	Gavin Lux TB Lineup pending	TB vs ATLGrant Holmes · slot 7	--Valinor	7.7%market	-1.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.010xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
54	José Caballero NYY Lineup pending	NYY vs CHCEdward Cabrera · slot 1	--Valinor	9.1%market	-1.5pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.985xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 960 avg 3 books
55	Byron Buxton MIN Lineup pending	MIN vs BOSRanger Suarez · slot 3	--Valinor	23.3%market	-1.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.964xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 330 avg 3 books
56	Aaron Judge NYY Lineup pending	NYY vs CHCEdward Cabrera · slot 2	--Valinor	30.6%market	-1.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.985xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 215 avg 3 books
57	Shohei Ohtani LAD Lineup pending	LAD vs LAAJack Kochanowicz · slot 1	--Valinor	30.3%market	-1.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.954xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 230 avg 3 books
58	Matt Olson ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs TBRyan Pepiot · slot 2	--Valinor	21.2%market	-1.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.010xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 355 avg 3 books
59	Jonathan India KC Lineup pending	KC vs TEXJack Leiter · slot 6	--Valinor	10.2%market	-1.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.031xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 845 avg 3 books
60	Max Muncy LAD Lineup pending	LAD vs LAAJack Kochanowicz · slot 6	--Valinor	20.1%market	-1.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.954xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 380 avg 3 books
61	Sean Murphy ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs TBRyan Pepiot · slot 7	--Valinor	16.7%market	-1.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.010xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 480 avg 3 books
62	Starling Marte KC Lineup pending	KC vs TEXJack Leiter · slot 7	--Valinor	9.6%market	-1.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.031xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 905 avg 3 books
63	Kyle Manzardo CLE Lineup pending	CLE vs AZMichael Soroka · slot 3	--Valinor	19.8%market	-1.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.000xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 405 avg 3 books
64	Bo Naylor CLE Lineup pending	CLE vs AZMichael Soroka · slot 4	--Valinor	15.8%market	-1.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.000xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 535 avg 3 books
65	Cedric Mullins TB Lineup pending	TB vs ATLGrant Holmes · slot 5	--Valinor	15.6%market	-1.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.010xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 540 avg 3 books
66	Yandy Díaz TB Lineup pending	TB vs ATLGrant Holmes · slot 2	--Valinor	15.6%market	-1.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.010xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 540 avg 3 books
67	Andy Pages LAD Lineup pending	LAD vs LAAJack Kochanowicz · slot 7	--Valinor	14.9%market	-2.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.954xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 570 avg 3 books
68	Josh Bell MIN Lineup pending	MIN vs BOSRanger Suarez · slot 4	--Valinor	16.1%market	-2.5pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.964xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 520 avg 3 books
69	Royce Lewis MIN Lineup pending	MIN vs BOSRanger Suarez · slot 5	--Valinor	18.4%market	-2.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.964xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
70	Teoscar Hernández LAD Lineup pending	LAD vs LAAJack Kochanowicz · slot 4	--Valinor	19.2%market	-2.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.954xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
71	Trevor Larnach MIN Lineup pending	MIN vs BOSRanger Suarez · slot 7	--Valinor	13.8%market	-2.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.964xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 625 avg 3 books
72	Ryan Jeffers MIN Lineup pending	MIN vs BOSRanger Suarez · slot 6	--Valinor	14.1%market	-3.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.964xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 610 avg 3 books
73	Chandler Simpson TB Lineup pending	TB vs ATLGrant Holmes · slot 1	--Valinor	8.0%market	-4.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.010xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books

Top saved signals

5 value rows

01 Corey SeagerTEX vs KC · FanDuel

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp 02 Ronald Acuña Jr.ATL vs TB · FanDuel

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp 03 Kerry CarpenterDET vs COL · FanDuel

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp 04 Giancarlo StantonNYY vs CHC · FanDuel

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp 05 José RamírezCLE vs AZ · FanDuel

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp

Data context

0 sample flags

Status0roster/transaction rows

Lineups0confirmed starters

Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.