Mithrandir Metrics

HR BOARD 2026-03-25 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER armed; waiting on confirmed lineups

Lane Health 2026-09-01

Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable

Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable

Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research

Selective Lane

Valinor is available, but quiet today.

Valinor covers Home Run Market Gaps as a selective lane but didn't qualify any rows on today's slate. Try Palantir or check back tomorrow.

Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.

Lineups not posted

The in-lineup filter is armed, but no confirmed lineup artifact exists for this date yet. The board is showing the projected pool honestly.

Home-run board · largest Valinor gap versus market

#	Player	Matchup	Sim	Implied	Gap	Three lanes · P/F/V	Spread	Park	Weather	Recent	Best line
01	Ben Rice NYY Lineup pending	NYY vs SFLogan Webb · slot 6	--Valinor	17.3%market	+0.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.914xHR pf	Pitcher-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 455 avg 3 books
02	Trent Grisham NYY Lineup pending	NYY vs SFLogan Webb · slot 7	--Valinor	17.0%market	+0.5pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.914xHR pf	Pitcher-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 465 avg 3 books
03	Heliot Ramos SF Lineup pending	SF vs NYYMax Fried · slot 5	--Valinor	14.4%market	+0.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.914xHR pf	Pitcher-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 570 avg 3 books
04	Jung Hoo Lee SF Lineup pending	SF vs NYYMax Fried · slot 7	--Valinor	7.7%market	-1.0pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.914xHR pf	Pitcher-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
05	Giancarlo Stanton NYY Lineup pending	NYY vs SFLogan Webb · slot 4	--Valinor	25.1%market	-1.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.914xHR pf	Pitcher-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 285 avg 3 books
06	Cody Bellinger NYY Lineup pending	NYY vs SFLogan Webb · slot 3	--Valinor	17.9%market	-2.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.914xHR pf	Pitcher-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 460 avg 3 books
07	Tyler Fitzgerald SF Lineup pending	SF vs NYYMax Fried · slot 6	--Valinor	13.6%market	-2.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.914xHR pf	Pitcher-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 635 avg 3 books
08	José Caballero NYY Lineup pending	NYY vs SFLogan Webb · slot 1	--Valinor	9.4%market	-3.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.914xHR pf	Pitcher-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 965 avg 3 books
09	Rafael Devers SF Lineup pending	SF vs NYYMax Fried · slot 2	--Valinor	21.1%market	-3.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.914xHR pf	Pitcher-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 375 avg 3 books
10	Luis Arraez SF Lineup pending	SF vs NYYMax Fried · slot 1	--Valinor	8.0%market	-3.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.914xHR pf	Pitcher-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
11	Matt Chapman SF Lineup pending	SF vs NYYMax Fried · slot 3	--Valinor	17.0%market	-3.5pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.914xHR pf	Pitcher-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
12	Willy Adames SF Lineup pending	SF vs NYYMax Fried · slot 4	--Valinor	18.4%market	-3.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.914xHR pf	Pitcher-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
13	Jazz Chisholm Jr. NYY Lineup pending	NYY vs SFLogan Webb · slot 5	--Valinor	19.8%market	-4.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.914xHR pf	Pitcher-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 405 avg 3 books
14	Aaron Judge NYY Lineup pending	NYY vs SFLogan Webb · slot 2	--Valinor	31.2%market	-9.0pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.914xHR pf	Pitcher-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 220 avg 3 books

Top saved signals

0 value rows

No top rows

The saved artifact has no ranked HR rows for this view.

Data context

0 sample flags

Status0roster/transaction rows

Lineups0confirmed starters

Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.