Mithrandir Metrics
Palantir lane 2026-04-09 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
36
Matched
108
Lineups
0
HR BOARD 2026-04-09 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER armed; waiting on confirmed lineups
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research
Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Lineups not posted

The in-lineup filter is armed, but no confirmed lineup artifact exists for this date yet. The board is showing the projected pool honestly.

Home-run board · largest Palantir gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01
Elly De La Cruz CIN
Lineup pending
CIN vs MIAMax Meyer · slot 1
 18.5%Palantir 15.0%market +3.5pp
P 18.5
F 17.9
V 13.5
--pp 0.853xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 540 avg 3 books
02
Andrew Benintendi CWS
Lineup pending
CWS vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 4
 15.0%Palantir 13.0%market +2.1pp
P 15.0
F 17.9
V 13.5
--pp 1.098xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform FanDuel 640 avg 3 books
03
Bo Bichette NYM
Lineup pending
NYM vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 3
 11.9%Palantir 12.7%market -0.8pp
P 11.9
F 17.9
V 13.4
--pp 0.900xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 690 avg 3 books
04
Trevor Larnach MIN
Lineup pending
MIN vs DETJack Flaherty · slot 7
 11.3%Palantir 12.5%market -1.2pp
P 11.3
F 15.5
V 11.6
--pp 0.911xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 700 avg 3 books
05
José Caballero NYY
Lineup pending
NYY vs ATHJeffrey Springs · slot 1
 6.9%Palantir 8.3%market -1.4pp
P 6.9
F 11.1
V 8.4
--pp 0.975xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1100 avg 3 books
06
Marcus Semien NYM
Lineup pending
NYM vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 5
 10.9%Palantir 14.3%market -3.4pp
P 10.9
F 11.4
V 8.6
--pp 0.900xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 600 avg 3 books
07
Tj Friedl CIN
Lineup pending
CIN vs MIAMax Meyer · slot 2
 9.3%Palantir 13.3%market -4.0pp
P 9.3
F 14.2
V 10.7
--pp 0.853xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 650 avg 3 books
08
Josh Bell MIN
Lineup pending
MIN vs DETJack Flaherty · slot 4
 11.1%Palantir 15.5%market -4.4pp
P 11.1
F 15.5
V 11.6
--pp 0.911xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 545 avg 3 books
09
Jj Bleday CIN
Lineup pending
CIN vs MIAMax Meyer · slot 6
 9.0%Palantir 13.4%market -4.4pp
P 9.0
F 9.1
V 6.8
--pp 0.853xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 645 avg 3 books
10
Spencer Steer CIN
Lineup pending
CIN vs MIAMax Meyer · slot 4
 9.8%Palantir 14.3%market -4.5pp
P 9.8
F 15.5
V 11.6
--pp 0.853xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 600 avg 3 books
11
Brenton Doyle COL
Lineup pending
COL vs SDRandy Vásquez · slot 5
 7.3%Palantir 12.6%market -5.3pp
P 7.3
F 13.4
V 10.0
--pp 0.935xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 695 avg 3 books
12
Tyler Stephenson CIN
Lineup pending
CIN vs MIAMax Meyer · slot 5
 7.5%Palantir 12.8%market -5.3pp
P 7.5
F 14.2
V 10.7
--pp 0.853xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 680 avg 3 books
13
Willi Castro COL
Lineup pending
COL vs SDRandy Vásquez · slot 1
 4.9%Palantir 10.3%market -5.4pp
P 4.9
F 13.4
V 10.0
--pp 0.935xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 870 avg 3 books
14
Edgar Quero CWS
Lineup pending
CWS vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 6
 2.5%Palantir 8.0%market -5.5pp
P 2.5
F 14.2
V 10.7
--pp 1.098xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
15
Ezequiel Tovar COL
Lineup pending
COL vs SDRandy Vásquez · slot 4
 6.5%Palantir 13.1%market -6.5pp
P 6.5
F 11.1
V 8.3
--pp 0.935xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 665 avg 3 books
16
Jacob Wilson ATH
Lineup pending
ATH vs NYYRyan Weathers · slot 6
 2.9%Palantir 9.5%market -6.6pp
P 2.9
F 2.8
V 2.1
--pp 0.975xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 950 avg 3 books
17
Edouard Julien COL
Lineup pending
COL vs SDRandy Vásquez · slot 6
 3.9%Palantir 11.3%market -7.5pp
P 3.9
F 13.6
V 10.2
--pp 0.935xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 785 avg 3 books
18
Jazz Chisholm Jr. NYY
Lineup pending
NYY vs ATHJeffrey Springs · slot 5
 15.9%Palantir 18.0%market -2.2pp
P 15.9
F 17.2
V 12.9
--pp 0.975xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 455 avg 3 books
19
Cody Bellinger NYY
Lineup pending
NYY vs ATHJeffrey Springs · slot 3
 13.7%Palantir 17.0%market -3.2pp
P 13.7
F 17.2
V 12.9
--pp 0.975xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
20
Jorge Polanco NYM
Lineup pending
NYM vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 4
 13.3%Palantir 16.7%market -3.4pp
P 13.3
F 17.2
V 12.9
--pp 0.900xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 500 avg 3 books
21
Francisco Lindor NYM
Lineup pending
NYM vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 2
 15.1%Palantir 19.4%market -4.3pp
P 15.1
F 15.5
V 11.7
--pp 0.900xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 415 avg 3 books
22
Hunter Goodman COL
Lineup pending
COL vs SDRandy Vásquez · slot 2
 13.0%Palantir 18.0%market -5.0pp
P 13.0
F 17.2
V 12.9
--pp 0.935xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 455 avg 3 books
23
Giancarlo Stanton NYY
Lineup pending
NYY vs ATHJeffrey Springs · slot 4
 17.7%Palantir 23.5%market -5.8pp
P 17.7
F 17.9
V 13.5
--pp 0.975xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 325 avg 3 books
24
Chase Meidroth CWS
Lineup pending
CWS vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 1
 2.1%Palantir 8.0%market -5.9pp
P 2.1
F 9.1
V 6.8
--pp 1.098xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
25
Matt Wallner MIN
Lineup pending
MIN vs DETJack Flaherty · slot 2
 13.9%Palantir 20.0%market -6.1pp
P 13.9
F 17.2
V 12.9
--pp 0.911xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 400 avg 3 books
26
Mark Vientos NYM
Lineup pending
NYM vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 6
 10.6%Palantir 17.0%market -6.3pp
P 10.6
F 11.1
V 8.3
--pp 0.900xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
27
Byron Buxton MIN
Lineup pending
MIN vs DETJack Flaherty · slot 3
 14.0%Palantir 21.1%market -7.1pp
P 14.0
F 17.2
V 12.9
--pp 0.911xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 375 avg 3 books
28
Royce Lewis MIN
Lineup pending
MIN vs DETJack Flaherty · slot 5
 8.4%Palantir 15.8%market -7.4pp
P 8.4
F 13.4
V 10.0
--pp 0.911xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 535 avg 3 books
29
Luke Keaschall MIN
Lineup pending
MIN vs DETJack Flaherty · slot 1
 2.6%Palantir 11.1%market -8.4pp
P 2.6
F 2.8
V 2.1
--pp 0.911xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 805 avg 3 books
30
Eugenio Suárez CIN
Lineup pending
CIN vs MIAMax Meyer · slot 3
 12.8%Palantir 21.7%market -9.0pp
P 12.8
F 14.2
V 10.7
--pp 0.853xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 360 avg 3 books
31
Juan Soto NYM
Lineup pending
NYM vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 1
 14.2%Palantir 23.3%market -9.0pp
P 14.2
F 17.9
V 13.5
--pp 0.900xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 330 avg 3 books
32
Brent Rooker ATH
Lineup pending
ATH vs NYYRyan Weathers · slot 2
 13.3%Palantir 22.5%market -9.2pp
P 13.3
F 15.7
V 11.8
--pp 0.975xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 345 avg 3 books
33
Shea Langeliers ATH
Lineup pending
ATH vs NYYRyan Weathers · slot 3
 12.7%Palantir 22.0%market -9.3pp
P 12.7
F 15.7
V 11.8
--pp 0.975xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 355 avg 3 books
34
Colson Montgomery CWS
Lineup pending
CWS vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 3
 11.0%Palantir 23.3%market -12.3pp
P 11.0
F 13.6
V 10.2
--pp 1.098xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 330 avg 3 books
35
Aaron Judge NYY
Lineup pending
NYY vs ATHJeffrey Springs · slot 2
 18.0%Palantir 31.2%market -13.3pp
P 18.0
F 17.9
V 13.6
--pp 0.975xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 220 avg 3 books
36
Nick Kurtz ATH
Lineup pending
ATH vs NYYRyan Weathers · slot 1
 11.6%Palantir 26.0%market -14.3pp
P 11.6
F 13.4
V 10.1
--pp 0.975xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 285 avg 3 books

Data context

0 sample flags
Status0roster/transaction rows
Lineups0confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.