Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs
Home run board.
Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.
HR BOARD 2026-04-09 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay
PALANTIR production
FANGORN nonlinear lane
VALINOR calibrated lane
LINEUP FILTER armed; waiting on confirmed lineups
Lane Health
2026-09-01
Palantir
17901 props
Brier 0.117
ECE 0.008
14d stable
Fangorn
17901 props
Brier 0.118
ECE 0.009
14d stable
Valinor
12243 props
Brier 0.112
ECE 0.005
14d stable
Model Lane
Home Runs
Choose the model that drives this board.
Lineups not posted
The in-lineup filter is armed, but no confirmed lineup artifact exists for this date yet. The board is showing the projected pool honestly.
Home-run board · largest Fangorn gap versus market
| # | Player | Matchup | Sim | Implied | Gap | Three lanes · P/F/V | Spread | Park | Weather | Recent | Best line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 |
Edgar Quero
CWS
Lineup pending
|
CWS vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 6 |
14.2%Fangorn | 7.7%market | +6.5pp |
P
2.5
F
14.2
V
10.7
|
--pp | 1.098xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books |
| 02 |
Bo Bichette
NYM
Lineup pending
|
NYM vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 3 |
17.9%Fangorn | 12.1%market | +5.8pp |
P
11.9
F
17.9
V
13.4
|
--pp | 0.900xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 695 avg 3 books |
| 03 | Lineup pending | CWS vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 4 |
17.9%Fangorn | 13.0%market | +4.9pp |
P
15.0
F
17.9
V
13.5
|
--pp | 1.098xHR pf | Neutralweather | Strong Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 640 avg 3 books |
| 04 |
Trevor Larnach
MIN
Lineup pending
|
MIN vs DETJack Flaherty · slot 7 |
15.5%Fangorn | 11.9%market | +3.6pp |
P
11.3
F
15.5
V
11.6
|
--pp | 0.911xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 705 avg 3 books |
| 05 |
Willi Castro
COL
Lineup pending
|
COL vs SDRandy Vásquez · slot 1 |
13.4%Fangorn | 9.8%market | +3.5pp |
P
4.9
F
13.4
V
10.0
|
--pp | 0.935xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 880 avg 3 books |
| 06 |
José Caballero
NYY
Lineup pending
|
NYY vs ATHJeffrey Springs · slot 1 |
11.1%Fangorn | 7.9%market | +3.3pp |
P
6.9
F
11.1
V
8.4
|
--pp | 0.975xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 1130 avg 3 books |
| 07 |
Elly De La Cruz
CIN
Lineup pending
|
CIN vs MIAMax Meyer · slot 1 |
17.9%Fangorn | 15.0%market | +2.9pp |
P
18.5
F
17.9
V
13.5
|
--pp | 0.853xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 540 avg 3 books |
| 08 |
Edouard Julien
COL
Lineup pending
|
COL vs SDRandy Vásquez · slot 6 |
13.6%Fangorn | 10.9%market | +2.7pp |
P
3.9
F
13.6
V
10.2
|
--pp | 0.935xHR pf | Neutralweather | Strong Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 790 avg 3 books |
| 09 |
Tyler Stephenson
CIN
Lineup pending
|
CIN vs MIAMax Meyer · slot 5 |
14.2%Fangorn | 12.3%market | +1.9pp |
P
7.5
F
14.2
V
10.7
|
--pp | 0.853xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 685 avg 3 books |
| 10 |
Spencer Steer
CIN
Lineup pending
|
CIN vs MIAMax Meyer · slot 4 |
15.5%Fangorn | 13.6%market | +1.9pp |
P
9.8
F
15.5
V
11.6
|
--pp | 0.853xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 605 avg 3 books |
| 11 |
Tj Friedl
CIN
Lineup pending
|
CIN vs MIAMax Meyer · slot 2 |
14.2%Fangorn | 12.7%market | +1.5pp |
P
9.3
F
14.2
V
10.7
|
--pp | 0.853xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 655 avg 3 books |
| 12 |
Brenton Doyle
COL
Lineup pending
|
COL vs SDRandy Vásquez · slot 5 |
13.4%Fangorn | 12.0%market | +1.3pp |
P
7.3
F
13.4
V
10.0
|
--pp | 0.935xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 700 avg 3 books |
| 13 |
Cody Bellinger
NYY
Lineup pending
|
NYY vs ATHJeffrey Springs · slot 3 |
17.2%Fangorn | 16.2%market | +1.0pp |
P
13.7
F
17.2
V
12.9
|
--pp | 0.975xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 495 avg 3 books |
| 14 |
Josh Bell
MIN
Lineup pending
|
MIN vs DETJack Flaherty · slot 4 |
15.5%Fangorn | 14.8%market | +0.7pp |
P
11.1
F
15.5
V
11.6
|
--pp | 0.911xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 550 avg 3 books |
| 15 |
Ezequiel Tovar
COL
Lineup pending
|
COL vs SDRandy Vásquez · slot 4 |
11.1%Fangorn | 13.1%market | -2.0pp |
P
6.5
F
11.1
V
8.3
|
--pp | 0.935xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 665 avg 3 books |
| 16 |
Marcus Semien
NYM
Lineup pending
|
NYM vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 5 |
11.4%Fangorn | 14.3%market | -2.9pp |
P
10.9
F
11.4
V
8.6
|
--pp | 0.900xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 600 avg 3 books |
| 17 |
Jj Bleday
CIN
Lineup pending
|
CIN vs MIAMax Meyer · slot 6 |
9.1%Fangorn | 13.4%market | -4.3pp |
P
9.0
F
9.1
V
6.8
|
--pp | 0.853xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 645 avg 3 books |
| 18 |
Jacob Wilson
ATH
Lineup pending
|
ATH vs NYYRyan Weathers · slot 6 |
2.8%Fangorn | 9.5%market | -6.7pp |
P
2.9
F
2.8
V
2.1
|
--pp | 0.975xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 950 avg 3 books |
| 19 |
Jorge Polanco
NYM
Lineup pending
|
NYM vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 4 |
17.2%Fangorn | 15.8%market | +1.5pp |
P
13.3
F
17.2
V
12.9
|
--pp | 0.900xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 510 avg 3 books |
| 20 |
Chase Meidroth
CWS
Lineup pending
|
CWS vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 1 |
9.1%Fangorn | 7.7%market | +1.4pp |
P
2.1
F
9.1
V
6.8
|
--pp | 1.098xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books |
| 21 |
Hunter Goodman
COL
Lineup pending
|
COL vs SDRandy Vásquez · slot 2 |
17.2%Fangorn | 18.0%market | -0.8pp |
P
13.0
F
17.2
V
12.9
|
--pp | 0.935xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 455 avg 3 books |
| 22 | Lineup pending | NYY vs ATHJeffrey Springs · slot 5 |
17.2%Fangorn | 18.0%market | -0.8pp |
P
15.9
F
17.2
V
12.9
|
--pp | 0.975xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 455 avg 3 books |
| 23 |
Royce Lewis
MIN
Lineup pending
|
MIN vs DETJack Flaherty · slot 5 |
13.4%Fangorn | 15.8%market | -2.4pp |
P
8.4
F
13.4
V
10.0
|
--pp | 0.911xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 535 avg 3 books |
| 24 |
Matt Wallner
MIN
Lineup pending
|
MIN vs DETJack Flaherty · slot 2 |
17.2%Fangorn | 20.0%market | -2.8pp |
P
13.9
F
17.2
V
12.9
|
--pp | 0.911xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 400 avg 3 books |
| 25 |
Byron Buxton
MIN
Lineup pending
|
MIN vs DETJack Flaherty · slot 3 |
17.2%Fangorn | 21.1%market | -3.8pp |
P
14.0
F
17.2
V
12.9
|
--pp | 0.911xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 375 avg 3 books |
| 26 |
Francisco Lindor
NYM
Lineup pending
|
NYM vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 2 |
15.5%Fangorn | 19.4%market | -3.9pp |
P
15.1
F
15.5
V
11.7
|
--pp | 0.900xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 415 avg 3 books |
| 27 |
Juan Soto
NYM
Lineup pending
|
NYM vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 1 |
17.9%Fangorn | 23.3%market | -5.3pp |
P
14.2
F
17.9
V
13.5
|
--pp | 0.900xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 330 avg 3 books |
| 28 | Lineup pending | NYY vs ATHJeffrey Springs · slot 4 |
17.9%Fangorn | 23.5%market | -5.6pp |
P
17.7
F
17.9
V
13.5
|
--pp | 0.975xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 325 avg 3 books |
| 29 |
Mark Vientos
NYM
Lineup pending
|
NYM vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 6 |
11.1%Fangorn | 17.0%market | -5.9pp |
P
10.6
F
11.1
V
8.3
|
--pp | 0.900xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 490 avg 3 books |
| 30 |
Shea Langeliers
ATH
Lineup pending
|
ATH vs NYYRyan Weathers · slot 3 |
15.7%Fangorn | 22.0%market | -6.2pp |
P
12.7
F
15.7
V
11.8
|
--pp | 0.975xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 355 avg 3 books |
| 31 |
Brent Rooker
ATH
Lineup pending
|
ATH vs NYYRyan Weathers · slot 2 |
15.7%Fangorn | 22.5%market | -6.7pp |
P
13.3
F
15.7
V
11.8
|
--pp | 0.975xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 345 avg 3 books |
| 32 |
Eugenio Suárez
CIN
Lineup pending
|
CIN vs MIAMax Meyer · slot 3 |
14.2%Fangorn | 21.7%market | -7.5pp |
P
12.8
F
14.2
V
10.7
|
--pp | 0.853xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 360 avg 3 books |
| 33 |
Luke Keaschall
MIN
Lineup pending
|
MIN vs DETJack Flaherty · slot 1 |
2.8%Fangorn | 11.1%market | -8.2pp |
P
2.6
F
2.8
V
2.1
|
--pp | 0.911xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 805 avg 3 books |
| 34 | Lineup pending | CWS vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 3 |
13.6%Fangorn | 23.3%market | -9.7pp |
P
11.0
F
13.6
V
10.2
|
--pp | 1.098xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 330 avg 3 books |
| 35 |
Nick Kurtz
ATH
Lineup pending
|
ATH vs NYYRyan Weathers · slot 1 |
13.4%Fangorn | 26.0%market | -12.6pp |
P
11.6
F
13.4
V
10.1
|
--pp | 0.975xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 285 avg 3 books |
| 36 |
Aaron Judge
NYY
Lineup pending
|
NYY vs ATHJeffrey Springs · slot 2 |
17.9%Fangorn | 31.2%market | -13.3pp |
P
18.0
F
17.9
V
13.6
|
--pp | 0.975xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 220 avg 3 books |
Data context
0 sample flagsStatus0roster/transaction rows
Lineups0confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows
Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.