Mithrandir Metrics

HR BOARD 2026-04-16 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER armed; waiting on confirmed lineups

Lane Health 2026-09-01

Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable

Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable

Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research

Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.

Lineups not posted

The in-lineup filter is armed, but no confirmed lineup artifact exists for this date yet. The board is showing the projected pool honestly.

Home-run board · largest Palantir gap versus market

#	Player	Matchup	Sim	Implied	Gap	Three lanes · P/F/V	Spread	Park	Weather	Recent	Best line
01	Elly De La Cruz CIN Lineup pending	CIN vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 1	22.6%Palantir	15.0%market	+7.6pp	P 22.6 F 26.0 V 19.5	--pp	1.230xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Strong Damageform	FanDuel 540 avg 3 books
02	Brice Turang MIL Lineup pending	MIL vs TORPatrick Corbin · slot 1	10.9%Palantir	8.7%market	+2.2pp	P 10.9 F 14.2 V 10.7	--pp	0.875xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	DraftKings 1010 avg 3 books
03	Wyatt Langford TEX Lineup pending	TEX vs ATHJacob Lopez · slot 1	16.4%Palantir	14.9%market	+1.5pp	P 16.4 F 17.9 V 13.5	--pp	0.990xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 545 avg 3 books
04	Tyler Soderstrom ATH Lineup pending	ATH vs TEXJack Leiter · slot 5	15.5%Palantir	14.0%market	+1.5pp	P 15.5 F 17.9 V 13.5	--pp	0.990xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 585 avg 3 books
05	Bo Naylor CLE Lineup pending	CLE vs BALShane Baz · slot 4	13.6%Palantir	13.9%market	-0.3pp	P 13.6 F 17.2 V 12.9	--pp	0.984xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	BetMGM 620 avg 3 books
06	Vinnie Pasquantino KC Lineup pending	KC vs DETKeider Montero · slot 3	17.2%Palantir	17.7%market	-0.5pp	P 17.2 F 26.0 V 19.5	--pp	1.029xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
07	Tj Friedl CIN Lineup pending	CIN vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 2	12.2%Palantir	13.3%market	-1.1pp	P 12.2 F 17.9 V 13.5	--pp	1.230xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Strong Damageform	BetMGM 650 avg 3 books
08	Daniel Schneemann CLE Lineup pending	CLE vs BALShane Baz · slot 6	10.0%Palantir	11.1%market	-1.2pp	P 10.0 F 10.3 V 7.8	--pp	0.984xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 800 avg 3 books
09	Lawrence Butler ATH Lineup pending	ATH vs TEXJack Leiter · slot 4	13.9%Palantir	15.6%market	-1.7pp	P 13.9 F 17.9 V 13.5	--pp	0.990xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	BetMGM 540 avg 3 books
10	Zach Neto LAA Lineup pending	LAA vs NYYMax Fried · slot 1	16.0%Palantir	17.7%market	-1.7pp	P 16.0 F 17.9 V 13.5	--pp	1.118xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Moderate Damageform	BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
11	Randy Arozarena SEA Lineup pending	SEA vs SDWalker Buehler · slot 5	12.7%Palantir	14.5%market	-1.8pp	P 12.7 F 17.2 V 12.9	--pp	0.951xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	BetMGM 590 avg 3 books
12	Bobby Witt Jr. KC Lineup pending	KC vs DETKeider Montero · slot 1	15.9%Palantir	17.7%market	-1.8pp	P 15.9 F 17.2 V 12.9	--pp	1.029xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
13	William Contreras MIL Lineup pending	MIL vs TORPatrick Corbin · slot 3	11.7%Palantir	13.5%market	-1.8pp	P 11.7 F 17.2 V 12.9	--pp	0.875xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	BetMGM 640 avg 3 books
14	Brendan Donovan SEA Lineup pending	SEA vs SDWalker Buehler · slot 6	8.3%Palantir	10.3%market	-1.9pp	P 8.3 F 15.7 V 11.8	--pp	0.951xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	BetMGM 875 avg 3 books
15	Jonathan India KC Lineup pending	KC vs DETKeider Montero · slot 6	7.8%Palantir	10.0%market	-2.1pp	P 7.8 F 13.4 V 10.0	--pp	1.029xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 905 avg 3 books
16	Spencer Steer CIN Lineup pending	CIN vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 4	12.1%Palantir	14.3%market	-2.2pp	P 12.1 F 17.9 V 13.5	--pp	1.230xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Moderate Damageform	BetMGM 600 avg 3 books
17	Jj Bleday CIN Lineup pending	CIN vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 6	10.8%Palantir	13.4%market	-2.6pp	P 10.8 F 11.4 V 8.6	--pp	1.230xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 645 avg 3 books
18	Brandon Nimmo TEX Lineup pending	TEX vs ATHJacob Lopez · slot 3	12.9%Palantir	15.6%market	-2.7pp	P 12.9 F 17.2 V 12.9	--pp	0.990xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	BetMGM 540 avg 3 books
19	Tyler Stephenson CIN Lineup pending	CIN vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 5	9.3%Palantir	12.8%market	-3.6pp	P 9.3 F 17.2 V 12.9	--pp	1.230xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Moderate Damageform	BetMGM 680 avg 3 books
20	Jake Cronenworth SD Lineup pending	SD vs SEALuis Castillo · slot 7	6.4%Palantir	10.1%market	-3.7pp	P 6.4 F 13.4 V 10.0	--pp	0.951xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 890 avg 3 books
21	Steven Kwan CLE Lineup pending	CLE vs BALShane Baz · slot 2	5.3%Palantir	9.2%market	-3.8pp	P 5.3 F 13.4 V 10.0	--pp	0.984xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 990 avg 3 books
22	Josh Naylor SEA Lineup pending	SEA vs SDWalker Buehler · slot 4	12.3%Palantir	17.0%market	-4.6pp	P 12.3 F 17.2 V 12.9	--pp	0.951xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
23	Josh Jung TEX Lineup pending	TEX vs ATHJacob Lopez · slot 7	8.4%Palantir	13.1%market	-4.7pp	P 8.4 F 15.5 V 11.6	--pp	0.990xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	BetMGM 665 avg 3 books
24	Jackson Merrill SD Lineup pending	SD vs SEALuis Castillo · slot 3	11.6%Palantir	16.3%market	-4.7pp	P 11.6 F 13.4 V 10.0	--pp	0.951xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 515 avg 3 books
25	Yoán Moncada LAA Lineup pending	LAA vs NYYMax Fried · slot 6	7.9%Palantir	13.3%market	-5.4pp	P 7.9 F 17.9 V 13.5	--pp	1.118xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Moderate Damageform	BetMGM 650 avg 3 books
26	Nick Castellanos SD Lineup pending	SD vs SEALuis Castillo · slot 4	9.4%Palantir	14.9%market	-5.5pp	P 9.4 F 14.2 V 10.7	--pp	0.951xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	BetMGM 570 avg 3 books
27	Lane Thomas KC Lineup pending	KC vs DETKeider Montero · slot 5	3.9%Palantir	13.1%market	-9.1pp	P 3.9 F 13.4 V 10.0	--pp	1.029xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 665 avg 3 books
28	Jahmai Jones DET Lineup pending	DET vs KCKris Bubic · slot 2	22.2%Palantir	13.6%market	+8.6pp	P 22.2 F 26.0 V 19.5	--pp	1.029xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 605 avg 3 books
29	Fernando Tatis Jr. SD Lineup pending	SD vs SEALuis Castillo · slot 1	15.8%Palantir	17.2%market	-1.4pp	P 15.8 F 17.9 V 13.5	--pp	0.951xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	BetMGM 480 avg 3 books
30	Mike Trout LAA Lineup pending	LAA vs NYYMax Fried · slot 2	18.1%Palantir	19.8%market	-1.7pp	P 18.1 F 26.0 V 19.5	--pp	1.118xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Moderate Damageform	BetMGM 405 avg 3 books
31	Jo Adell LAA Lineup pending	LAA vs NYYMax Fried · slot 4	18.5%Palantir	20.8%market	-2.4pp	P 18.5 F 17.9 V 13.5	--pp	1.118xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Moderate Damageform	BetMGM 380 avg 3 books
32	Kyle Manzardo CLE Lineup pending	CLE vs BALShane Baz · slot 3	15.0%Palantir	17.5%market	-2.6pp	P 15.0 F 15.7 V 11.8	--pp	0.984xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	BetMGM 470 avg 3 books
33	Spencer Torkelson DET Lineup pending	DET vs KCKris Bubic · slot 5	14.9%Palantir	17.7%market	-2.8pp	P 14.9 F 17.9 V 13.5	--pp	1.029xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
34	José Ramírez CLE Lineup pending	CLE vs BALShane Baz · slot 1	17.5%Palantir	20.4%market	-2.9pp	P 17.5 F 17.9 V 13.5	--pp	0.984xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	BetMGM 390 avg 3 books
35	Julio Rodríguez SEA Lineup pending	SEA vs SDWalker Buehler · slot 1	15.0%Palantir	18.0%market	-3.0pp	P 15.0 F 17.2 V 12.9	--pp	0.951xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	BetMGM 455 avg 3 books
36	Christian Yelich MIL Lineup pending	MIL vs TORPatrick Corbin · slot 2	12.5%Palantir	16.3%market	-3.8pp	P 12.5 F 17.9 V 13.5	--pp	0.875xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	BetMGM 515 avg 3 books
37	Logan O'Hoppe LAA Lineup pending	LAA vs NYYMax Fried · slot 5	11.9%Palantir	16.5%market	-4.7pp	P 11.9 F 17.2 V 12.9	--pp	1.118xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Moderate Damageform	BetMGM 505 avg 3 books
38	Salvador Perez KC Lineup pending	KC vs DETKeider Montero · slot 4	12.5%Palantir	18.0%market	-5.5pp	P 12.5 F 17.2 V 12.9	--pp	1.029xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	BetMGM 455 avg 3 books
39	Riley Greene DET Lineup pending	DET vs KCKris Bubic · slot 4	11.7%Palantir	17.4%market	-5.7pp	P 11.7 F 17.2 V 12.9	--pp	1.029xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	BetMGM 475 avg 3 books
40	Eugenio Suárez CIN Lineup pending	CIN vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 3	15.7%Palantir	21.7%market	-6.0pp	P 15.7 F 17.2 V 13.0	--pp	1.230xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Moderate Damageform	BetMGM 360 avg 3 books
41	Manny Machado SD Lineup pending	SD vs SEALuis Castillo · slot 2	12.2%Palantir	18.9%market	-6.7pp	P 12.2 F 15.7 V 11.8	--pp	0.951xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	BetMGM 430 avg 3 books
42	Jacob Wilson ATH Lineup pending	ATH vs TEXJack Leiter · slot 6	2.4%Palantir	9.2%market	-6.9pp	P 2.4 F 0.0 V 0.0	--pp	0.990xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 985 avg 3 books
43	Corey Seager TEX Lineup pending	TEX vs ATHJacob Lopez · slot 2	13.8%Palantir	21.7%market	-8.0pp	P 13.8 F 15.5 V 11.7	--pp	0.990xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	BetMGM 360 avg 3 books
44	Cal Raleigh SEA Lineup pending	SEA vs SDWalker Buehler · slot 3	17.2%Palantir	26.3%market	-9.2pp	P 17.2 F 13.6 V 10.2	--pp	0.951xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 280 avg 3 books
45	Brent Rooker ATH Lineup pending	ATH vs TEXJack Leiter · slot 2	12.1%Palantir	21.5%market	-9.4pp	P 12.1 F 14.2 V 10.7	--pp	0.990xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	BetMGM 365 avg 3 books
46	Shea Langeliers ATH Lineup pending	ATH vs TEXJack Leiter · slot 3	11.3%Palantir	20.8%market	-9.5pp	P 11.3 F 14.2 V 10.7	--pp	0.990xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	BetMGM 380 avg 3 books
47	Jake Burger TEX Lineup pending	TEX vs ATHJacob Lopez · slot 4	10.4%Palantir	20.4%market	-10.0pp	P 10.4 F 14.2 V 10.7	--pp	0.990xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	BetMGM 390 avg 3 books
48	Jorge Soler LAA Lineup pending	LAA vs NYYMax Fried · slot 3	6.5%Palantir	18.2%market	-11.7pp	P 6.5 F 14.2 V 10.7	--pp	1.118xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Moderate Damageform	BetMGM 450 avg 3 books
49	Nick Kurtz ATH Lineup pending	ATH vs TEXJack Leiter · slot 1	12.1%Palantir	27.0%market	-14.9pp	P 12.1 F 13.4 V 10.1	--pp	0.990xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 270 avg 3 books

Top saved signals

5 value rows

01 Tj FriedlCIN vs SF · DraftKings

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp 02 Elly De La CruzCIN vs SF · FanDuel

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp 03 Spencer SteerCIN vs SF · FanDuel

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp 04 Jj BledayCIN vs SF · FanDuel

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp 05 Wyatt LangfordTEX vs ATH · FanDuel

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp

Data context

0 sample flags

Status0roster/transaction rows

Lineups0confirmed starters

Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.