Mithrandir Metrics

HR BOARD 2026-04-16 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER armed; waiting on confirmed lineups

Lane Health 2026-09-02

Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable

Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable

Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research

Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.

Lineups not posted

The in-lineup filter is armed, but no confirmed lineup artifact exists for this date yet. The board is showing the projected pool honestly.

Home-run board · largest Valinor gap versus market

#	Player	Matchup	Sim	Implied	Gap	Three lanes · P/F/V	Spread	Park	Weather	Recent	Best line
01	Tj Friedl CIN Lineup pending	CIN vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 2	13.5%Valinor	12.7%market	+9.9pp	P 12.2 F 17.9 V 13.5	--pp	1.230xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Strong Damageform	FanDuel 655 avg 3 books
02	Elly De La Cruz CIN Lineup pending	CIN vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 1	19.5%Valinor	15.0%market	+8.6pp	P 22.6 F 26.0 V 19.5	--pp	1.230xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Strong Damageform	FanDuel 540 avg 3 books
03	Spencer Steer CIN Lineup pending	CIN vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 4	13.5%Valinor	13.6%market	+7.1pp	P 12.1 F 17.9 V 13.5	--pp	1.230xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 605 avg 3 books
04	Jj Bleday CIN Lineup pending	CIN vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 6	8.6%Valinor	12.8%market	+6.8pp	P 10.8 F 11.4 V 8.6	--pp	1.230xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 650 avg 3 books
05	Brendan Donovan SEA Lineup pending	SEA vs SDWalker Buehler · slot 6	11.8%Valinor	9.8%market	+6.5pp	P 8.3 F 15.7 V 11.8	--pp	0.951xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	DraftKings 890 avg 3 books
06	Tyler Stephenson CIN Lineup pending	CIN vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 5	12.9%Valinor	12.3%market	+6.4pp	P 9.3 F 17.2 V 12.9	--pp	1.230xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Moderate Damageform	DraftKings 685 avg 3 books
07	Daniel Schneemann CLE Lineup pending	CLE vs BALShane Baz · slot 6	7.8%Valinor	10.6%market	+6.0pp	P 10.0 F 10.3 V 7.8	--pp	0.984xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 810 avg 3 books
08	Wyatt Langford TEX Lineup pending	TEX vs ATHJacob Lopez · slot 1	13.5%Valinor	14.9%market	+5.6pp	P 16.4 F 17.9 V 13.5	--pp	0.990xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 545 avg 3 books
09	Jonathan India KC Lineup pending	KC vs DETKeider Montero · slot 6	10.0%Valinor	9.5%market	+5.5pp	P 7.8 F 13.4 V 10.0	--pp	1.029xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 920 avg 3 books
10	Jake Cronenworth SD Lineup pending	SD vs SEALuis Castillo · slot 7	10.0%Valinor	9.6%market	+4.9pp	P 6.4 F 13.4 V 10.0	--pp	0.951xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 905 avg 3 books
11	William Contreras MIL Lineup pending	MIL vs TORPatrick Corbin · slot 3	12.9%Valinor	12.9%market	+4.8pp	P 11.7 F 17.2 V 12.9	--pp	0.875xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 645 avg 3 books
12	Josh Jung TEX Lineup pending	TEX vs ATHJacob Lopez · slot 7	11.6%Valinor	12.6%market	+4.3pp	P 8.4 F 15.5 V 11.6	--pp	0.990xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 665 avg 3 books
13	Lane Thomas KC Lineup pending	KC vs DETKeider Montero · slot 5	10.0%Valinor	12.5%market	+4.2pp	P 3.9 F 13.4 V 10.0	--pp	1.029xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
14	Randy Arozarena SEA Lineup pending	SEA vs SDWalker Buehler · slot 5	12.9%Valinor	13.8%market	+3.9pp	P 12.7 F 17.2 V 12.9	--pp	0.951xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 595 avg 3 books
15	Bo Naylor CLE Lineup pending	CLE vs BALShane Baz · slot 4	12.9%Valinor	13.4%market	+3.9pp	P 13.6 F 17.2 V 12.9	--pp	0.984xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 620 avg 3 books
16	Jackson Merrill SD Lineup pending	SD vs SEALuis Castillo · slot 3	10.0%Valinor	15.5%market	+3.8pp	P 11.6 F 13.4 V 10.0	--pp	0.951xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 520 avg 3 books
17	Brandon Nimmo TEX Lineup pending	TEX vs ATHJacob Lopez · slot 3	12.9%Valinor	14.9%market	+3.7pp	P 12.9 F 17.2 V 12.9	--pp	0.990xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 545 avg 3 books
18	Yoán Moncada LAA Lineup pending	LAA vs NYYMax Fried · slot 6	13.5%Valinor	12.8%market	+3.7pp	P 7.9 F 17.9 V 13.5	--pp	1.118xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 655 avg 3 books
19	Bobby Witt Jr. KC Lineup pending	KC vs DETKeider Montero · slot 1	12.9%Valinor	16.9%market	+3.7pp	P 15.9 F 17.2 V 12.9	--pp	1.029xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 470 avg 3 books
20	Steven Kwan CLE Lineup pending	CLE vs BALShane Baz · slot 2	10.0%Valinor	8.7%market	+3.6pp	P 5.3 F 13.4 V 10.0	--pp	0.984xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 1010 avg 3 books
21	Vinnie Pasquantino KC Lineup pending	KC vs DETKeider Montero · slot 3	19.5%Valinor	16.7%market	+3.6pp	P 17.2 F 26.0 V 19.5	--pp	1.029xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 475 avg 3 books
22	Nick Castellanos SD Lineup pending	SD vs SEALuis Castillo · slot 4	10.7%Valinor	14.2%market	+3.5pp	P 9.4 F 14.2 V 10.7	--pp	0.951xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 575 avg 3 books
23	Josh Naylor SEA Lineup pending	SEA vs SDWalker Buehler · slot 4	12.9%Valinor	16.2%market	+3.2pp	P 12.3 F 17.2 V 12.9	--pp	0.951xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 495 avg 3 books
24	Lawrence Butler ATH Lineup pending	ATH vs TEXJack Leiter · slot 4	13.5%Valinor	14.9%market	+3.0pp	P 13.9 F 17.9 V 13.5	--pp	0.990xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 545 avg 3 books
25	Zach Neto LAA Lineup pending	LAA vs NYYMax Fried · slot 1	13.5%Valinor	16.9%market	+2.9pp	P 16.0 F 17.9 V 13.5	--pp	1.118xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 470 avg 3 books
26	Brice Turang MIL Lineup pending	MIL vs TORPatrick Corbin · slot 1	10.7%Valinor	8.7%market	+2.6pp	P 10.9 F 14.2 V 10.7	--pp	0.875xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	DraftKings 1010 avg 3 books
27	Tyler Soderstrom ATH Lineup pending	ATH vs TEXJack Leiter · slot 5	13.5%Valinor	14.0%market	+2.6pp	P 15.5 F 17.9 V 13.5	--pp	0.990xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 585 avg 3 books
28	Jacob Wilson ATH Lineup pending	ATH vs TEXJack Leiter · slot 6	0.0%Valinor	8.7%market	+2.2pp	P 2.4 F 0.0 V 0.0	--pp	0.990xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 1005 avg 3 books
29	Julio Rodríguez SEA Lineup pending	SEA vs SDWalker Buehler · slot 1	12.9%Valinor	17.2%market	+2.1pp	P 15.0 F 17.2 V 12.9	--pp	0.951xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 460 avg 3 books
30	Jahmai Jones DET Lineup pending	DET vs KCKris Bubic · slot 2	19.5%Valinor	13.6%market	+2.1pp	P 22.2 F 26.0 V 19.5	--pp	1.029xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 605 avg 3 books
31	Salvador Perez KC Lineup pending	KC vs DETKeider Montero · slot 4	12.9%Valinor	17.2%market	+1.7pp	P 12.5 F 17.2 V 12.9	--pp	1.029xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 460 avg 3 books
32	Fernando Tatis Jr. SD Lineup pending	SD vs SEALuis Castillo · slot 1	13.5%Valinor	16.4%market	+1.6pp	P 15.8 F 17.9 V 13.5	--pp	0.951xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 485 avg 3 books
33	Jorge Soler LAA Lineup pending	LAA vs NYYMax Fried · slot 3	10.7%Valinor	17.3%market	+1.6pp	P 6.5 F 14.2 V 10.7	--pp	1.118xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 455 avg 3 books
34	Spencer Torkelson DET Lineup pending	DET vs KCKris Bubic · slot 5	13.5%Valinor	16.7%market	+1.4pp	P 14.9 F 17.9 V 13.5	--pp	1.029xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 475 avg 3 books
35	Logan O'Hoppe LAA Lineup pending	LAA vs NYYMax Fried · slot 5	12.9%Valinor	15.8%market	+1.3pp	P 11.9 F 17.2 V 12.9	--pp	1.118xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 510 avg 3 books
36	Christian Yelich MIL Lineup pending	MIL vs TORPatrick Corbin · slot 2	13.5%Valinor	15.5%market	+1.2pp	P 12.5 F 17.9 V 13.5	--pp	0.875xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 520 avg 3 books
37	Eugenio Suárez CIN Lineup pending	CIN vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 3	13.0%Valinor	20.5%market	+1.0pp	P 15.7 F 17.2 V 13.0	--pp	1.230xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 370 avg 3 books
38	José Ramírez CLE Lineup pending	CLE vs BALShane Baz · slot 1	13.5%Valinor	19.4%market	+1.0pp	P 17.5 F 17.9 V 13.5	--pp	0.984xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 395 avg 3 books
39	Kyle Manzardo CLE Lineup pending	CLE vs BALShane Baz · slot 3	11.8%Valinor	16.7%market	+0.7pp	P 15.0 F 15.7 V 11.8	--pp	0.984xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 475 avg 3 books
40	Riley Greene DET Lineup pending	DET vs KCKris Bubic · slot 4	12.9%Valinor	16.6%market	+0.5pp	P 11.7 F 17.2 V 12.9	--pp	1.029xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 480 avg 3 books
41	Mike Trout LAA Lineup pending	LAA vs NYYMax Fried · slot 2	19.5%Valinor	18.9%market	+0.3pp	P 18.1 F 26.0 V 19.5	--pp	1.118xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Moderate Damageform	FanDuel 410 avg 3 books
42	Manny Machado SD Lineup pending	SD vs SEALuis Castillo · slot 2	11.8%Valinor	18.4%market	-0.2pp	P 12.2 F 15.7 V 11.8	--pp	0.951xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	DraftKings 425 avg 3 books
43	Jake Burger TEX Lineup pending	TEX vs ATHJacob Lopez · slot 4	10.7%Valinor	19.7%market	-1.4pp	P 10.4 F 14.2 V 10.7	--pp	0.990xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	DraftKings 390 avg 3 books
44	Jo Adell LAA Lineup pending	LAA vs NYYMax Fried · slot 4	13.5%Valinor	20.8%market	-2.0pp	P 18.5 F 17.9 V 13.5	--pp	1.118xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Moderate Damageform	BetMGM 380 avg 3 books
45	Brent Rooker ATH Lineup pending	ATH vs TEXJack Leiter · slot 2	10.7%Valinor	21.5%market	-2.1pp	P 12.1 F 14.2 V 10.7	--pp	0.990xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	BetMGM 365 avg 3 books
46	Corey Seager TEX Lineup pending	TEX vs ATHJacob Lopez · slot 2	11.7%Valinor	21.7%market	-2.2pp	P 13.8 F 15.5 V 11.7	--pp	0.990xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	BetMGM 360 avg 3 books
47	Shea Langeliers ATH Lineup pending	ATH vs TEXJack Leiter · slot 3	10.7%Valinor	20.8%market	-3.1pp	P 11.3 F 14.2 V 10.7	--pp	0.990xHR pf	Neutralweather	Moderate Damageform	BetMGM 380 avg 3 books
48	Cal Raleigh SEA Lineup pending	SEA vs SDWalker Buehler · slot 3	10.2%Valinor	26.3%market	-5.6pp	P 17.2 F 13.6 V 10.2	--pp	0.951xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 280 avg 3 books
49	Nick Kurtz ATH Lineup pending	ATH vs TEXJack Leiter · slot 1	10.1%Valinor	27.0%market	-7.3pp	P 12.1 F 13.4 V 10.1	--pp	0.990xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 270 avg 3 books

Top saved signals

5 value rows

01 Tj FriedlCIN vs SF · DraftKings

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp 02 Elly De La CruzCIN vs SF · FanDuel

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp 03 Spencer SteerCIN vs SF · FanDuel

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp 04 Jj BledayCIN vs SF · FanDuel

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp 05 Wyatt LangfordTEX vs ATH · FanDuel

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp

Data context

0 sample flags

Status0roster/transaction rows

Lineups0confirmed starters

Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.