Mithrandir Metrics
Palantir lane 2026-04-27 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
52
Matched
156
Lineups
0
HR BOARD 2026-04-27 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER armed; waiting on confirmed lineups
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research
Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Lineups not posted

The in-lineup filter is armed, but no confirmed lineup artifact exists for this date yet. The board is showing the projected pool honestly.

Home-run board · largest Palantir gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01
Andrew Benintendi CWS
Lineup pending
CWS vs LAAJack Kochanowicz · slot 4
 15.4%Palantir 13.0%market +2.4pp
P 15.4
F 17.9
V 13.5
4.5pp 1.096xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Strong Damageform FanDuel 640 avg 3 books
02
Roman Anthony BOS
Lineup pending
BOS vs TORDylan Cease · slot 2
 13.9%Palantir 12.0%market +1.9pp
P 13.9
F 17.2
V 12.9
4.3pp 0.933xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 700 avg 3 books
03
Jarren Duran BOS
Lineup pending
BOS vs TORDylan Cease · slot 1
 12.8%Palantir 11.8%market +1.0pp
P 12.8
F 14.2
V 10.7
3.5pp 0.933xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 715 avg 3 books
04
Wyatt Langford TEX
Lineup pending
TEX vs NYYMax Fried · slot 1
 15.7%Palantir 14.9%market +0.8pp
P 15.7
F 17.9
V 13.5
4.5pp 1.064xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 545 avg 3 books
05
Ryan O'Hearn PIT
Lineup pending
PIT vs STLDustin May · slot 3
 13.5%Palantir 13.0%market +0.5pp
P 13.5
F 17.2
V 12.9
4.3pp 0.959xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform FanDuel 640 avg 3 books
06
Spencer Horwitz PIT
Lineup pending
PIT vs STLDustin May · slot 6
 11.1%Palantir 11.8%market -0.7pp
P 11.1
F 15.7
V 11.8
4.6pp 0.959xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 745 avg 3 books
07
Trevor Larnach MIN
Lineup pending
MIN vs SEALuis Castillo · slot 7
 11.2%Palantir 12.5%market -1.3pp
P 11.2
F 15.5
V 11.6
4.3pp 0.928xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 700 avg 3 books
08
Cody Bellinger NYY
Lineup pending
NYY vs TEXJack Leiter · slot 3
 15.3%Palantir 17.7%market -2.4pp
P 15.3
F 17.9
V 13.5
4.5pp 1.064xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
09
Bryan Reynolds PIT
Lineup pending
PIT vs STLDustin May · slot 5
 11.5%Palantir 14.1%market -2.6pp
P 11.5
F 14.2
V 10.7
3.5pp 0.959xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 610 avg 3 books
10
Brandon Nimmo TEX
Lineup pending
TEX vs NYYMax Fried · slot 3
 12.3%Palantir 15.6%market -3.3pp
P 12.3
F 17.2
V 12.9
4.9pp 1.064xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 540 avg 3 books
11
Freddie Freeman LAD
Lineup pending
LAD vs MIAChris Paddack · slot 2
 13.5%Palantir 17.0%market -3.4pp
P 13.5
F 17.2
V 12.9
4.3pp 0.887xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
12
Josh Bell MIN
Lineup pending
MIN vs SEALuis Castillo · slot 4
 11.2%Palantir 15.5%market -4.3pp
P 11.2
F 15.5
V 11.6
4.3pp 0.928xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 545 avg 3 books
13
Josh Jung TEX
Lineup pending
TEX vs NYYMax Fried · slot 7
 8.0%Palantir 13.1%market -5.0pp
P 8.0
F 14.2
V 10.7
6.2pp 1.064xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 665 avg 3 books
14
Edgar Quero CWS
Lineup pending
CWS vs LAAJack Kochanowicz · slot 6
 2.6%Palantir 8.0%market -5.4pp
P 2.6
F 14.2
V 10.7
11.7pp 1.096xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
15
Ben Rice NYY
Lineup pending
NYY vs TEXJack Leiter · slot 6
 18.4%Palantir 15.5%market +2.9pp
P 18.4
F 17.9
V 13.5
5.0pp 1.064xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 520 avg 3 books
16
Wilyer Abreu BOS
Lineup pending
BOS vs TORDylan Cease · slot 4
 17.6%Palantir 15.5%market +2.1pp
P 17.6
F 17.2
V 12.9
4.6pp 0.933xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 520 avg 3 books
17
Jazz Chisholm Jr. NYY
Lineup pending
NYY vs TEXJack Leiter · slot 5
 18.0%Palantir 19.2%market -1.2pp
P 18.0
F 17.9
V 13.5
4.6pp 1.064xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
18
Dansby Swanson CHC
Lineup pending
CHC vs SDRandy Vásquez · slot 6
 12.2%Palantir 13.6%market -1.4pp
P 12.2
F 14.2
V 10.7
3.5pp 0.869xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 635 avg 3 books
19
Ramón Laureano SD
Lineup pending
SD vs CHCMatthew Boyd · slot 5
 13.5%Palantir 15.4%market -1.9pp
P 13.5
F 17.2
V 12.9
4.3pp 0.869xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 550 avg 3 books
20
Fernando Tatis Jr. SD
Lineup pending
SD vs CHCMatthew Boyd · slot 1
 15.2%Palantir 17.9%market -2.6pp
P 15.2
F 17.2
V 12.9
4.3pp 0.869xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 460 avg 3 books
21
Ian Happ CHC
Lineup pending
CHC vs SDRandy Vásquez · slot 4
 12.7%Palantir 15.5%market -2.8pp
P 12.7
F 14.2
V 10.7
3.5pp 0.869xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 545 avg 3 books
22
Miguel Andujar SD
Lineup pending
SD vs CHCMatthew Boyd · slot 6
 6.7%Palantir 9.5%market -2.8pp
P 6.7
F 13.6
V 10.2
6.8pp 0.869xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 950 avg 3 books
23
Michael Busch CHC
Lineup pending
CHC vs SDRandy Vásquez · slot 3
 15.4%Palantir 18.7%market -3.3pp
P 15.4
F 17.9
V 13.5
4.5pp 0.869xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 435 avg 3 books
24
Brandon Lowe PIT
Lineup pending
PIT vs STLDustin May · slot 4
 16.4%Palantir 20.4%market -4.0pp
P 16.4
F 17.2
V 12.9
4.3pp 0.959xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 390 avg 3 books
25
Kyle Tucker LAD
Lineup pending
LAD vs MIAChris Paddack · slot 3
 14.6%Palantir 19.1%market -4.4pp
P 14.6
F 15.5
V 11.7
3.8pp 0.887xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 425 avg 3 books
26
Nico Hoerner CHC
Lineup pending
CHC vs SDRandy Vásquez · slot 1
 3.4%Palantir 8.0%market -4.6pp
P 3.4
F 4.7
V 3.5
1.3pp 0.869xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
27
George Springer TOR
Lineup pending
TOR vs BOSRanger Suarez · slot 1
 13.6%Palantir 18.4%market -4.7pp
P 13.6
F 15.7
V 11.8
3.9pp 0.933xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
28
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR
Lineup pending
TOR vs BOSRanger Suarez · slot 2
 12.7%Palantir 17.5%market -4.9pp
P 12.7
F 17.9
V 13.5
5.2pp 0.933xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 470 avg 3 books
29
Alex Bregman CHC
Lineup pending
CHC vs SDRandy Vásquez · slot 5
 10.4%Palantir 15.3%market -4.9pp
P 10.4
F 14.2
V 10.7
3.8pp 0.869xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 555 avg 3 books
30
Willson Contreras BOS
Lineup pending
BOS vs TORDylan Cease · slot 3
 10.7%Palantir 15.9%market -5.2pp
P 10.7
F 14.2
V 10.7
3.5pp 0.933xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 530 avg 3 books
31
Mookie Betts LAD
Lineup pending
LAD vs MIAChris Paddack · slot 5
 10.5%Palantir 16.1%market -5.6pp
P 10.5
F 15.5
V 11.6
5.0pp 0.887xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 520 avg 3 books
32
Chase Meidroth CWS
Lineup pending
CWS vs LAAJack Kochanowicz · slot 1
 2.3%Palantir 8.0%market -5.7pp
P 2.3
F 9.1
V 6.8
6.8pp 1.096xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
33
Giancarlo Stanton NYY
Lineup pending
NYY vs TEXJack Leiter · slot 4
 16.3%Palantir 22.2%market -5.9pp
P 16.3
F 17.9
V 13.5
4.4pp 1.064xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 350 avg 3 books
34
Agustín Ramírez MIA
Lineup pending
MIA vs LADYoshinobu Yamamoto · slot 4
 8.8%Palantir 14.7%market -6.0pp
P 8.8
F 13.6
V 10.2
4.8pp 0.887xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 580 avg 3 books
35
Jackson Merrill SD
Lineup pending
SD vs CHCMatthew Boyd · slot 3
 9.3%Palantir 15.3%market -6.0pp
P 9.3
F 10.3
V 7.8
2.6pp 0.869xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 555 avg 3 books
36
Jake Mangum PIT
Lineup pending
PIT vs STLDustin May · slot 1
 1.9%Palantir 8.0%market -6.1pp
P 1.9
F 9.1
V 6.8
7.2pp 0.959xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
37
Matt Wallner MIN
Lineup pending
MIN vs SEALuis Castillo · slot 2
 13.8%Palantir 20.0%market -6.2pp
P 13.8
F 17.2
V 12.9
4.3pp 0.928xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 400 avg 3 books
38
Nick Castellanos SD
Lineup pending
SD vs CHCMatthew Boyd · slot 4
 9.0%Palantir 15.4%market -6.3pp
P 9.0
F 13.6
V 10.2
4.5pp 0.869xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 550 avg 3 books
39
Xavier Edwards MIA
Lineup pending
MIA vs LADYoshinobu Yamamoto · slot 1
 1.3%Palantir 8.0%market -6.7pp
P 1.3
F 4.7
V 3.5
3.4pp 0.887xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
40
Byron Buxton MIN
Lineup pending
MIN vs SEALuis Castillo · slot 3
 13.9%Palantir 21.1%market -7.1pp
P 13.9
F 17.2
V 12.9
4.3pp 0.928xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 375 avg 3 books
41
Royce Lewis MIN
Lineup pending
MIN vs SEALuis Castillo · slot 5
 8.4%Palantir 15.8%market -7.3pp
P 8.4
F 13.4
V 10.0
4.9pp 0.928xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 535 avg 3 books
42
Teoscar Hernández LAD
Lineup pending
LAD vs MIAChris Paddack · slot 4
 11.0%Palantir 18.4%market -7.4pp
P 11.0
F 14.2
V 10.7
3.5pp 0.887xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
43
Max Muncy LAD
Lineup pending
LAD vs MIAChris Paddack · slot 6
 11.4%Palantir 19.2%market -7.8pp
P 11.4
F 13.6
V 10.2
3.4pp 0.887xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
44
Manny Machado SD
Lineup pending
SD vs CHCMatthew Boyd · slot 2
 11.7%Palantir 19.6%market -7.9pp
P 11.7
F 15.5
V 11.7
3.8pp 0.869xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 410 avg 3 books
45
Jakob Marsee MIA
Lineup pending
MIA vs LADYoshinobu Yamamoto · slot 2
 2.6%Palantir 10.6%market -8.0pp
P 2.6
F 11.4
V 8.6
8.9pp 0.887xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 845 avg 3 books
46
Luke Keaschall MIN
Lineup pending
MIN vs SEALuis Castillo · slot 1
 2.7%Palantir 11.0%market -8.3pp
P 2.7
F 3.4
V 2.5
0.8pp 0.928xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 810 avg 3 books
47
Corey Seager TEX
Lineup pending
TEX vs NYYMax Fried · slot 2
 13.1%Palantir 21.7%market -8.7pp
P 13.1
F 14.2
V 10.7
3.5pp 1.064xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 360 avg 3 books
48
Jake Burger TEX
Lineup pending
TEX vs NYYMax Fried · slot 4
 9.9%Palantir 20.4%market -10.5pp
P 9.9
F 13.6
V 10.2
3.7pp 1.064xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 390 avg 3 books
49
Marcell Ozuna PIT
Lineup pending
PIT vs STLDustin May · slot 2
 10.4%Palantir 21.1%market -10.6pp
P 10.4
F 13.6
V 10.2
3.4pp 0.959xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 375 avg 3 books
50
Colson Montgomery CWS
Lineup pending
CWS vs LAAJack Kochanowicz · slot 3
 11.1%Palantir 23.3%market -12.2pp
P 11.1
F 13.6
V 10.2
3.3pp 1.096xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 330 avg 3 books
51
Aaron Judge NYY
Lineup pending
NYY vs TEXJack Leiter · slot 2
 17.3%Palantir 29.8%market -12.6pp
P 17.3
F 17.9
V 13.5
4.4pp 1.064xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 235 avg 3 books
52
Shohei Ohtani LAD
Lineup pending
LAD vs MIAChris Paddack · slot 1
 16.8%Palantir 29.8%market -13.0pp
P 16.8
F 17.9
V 13.5
4.4pp 0.887xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 235 avg 3 books

Data context

0 sample flags
Status0roster/transaction rows
Lineups0confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.