Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs
Home run board.
Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.
HR BOARD 2026-04-27 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay
PALANTIR production
FANGORN nonlinear lane
VALINOR calibrated lane
LINEUP FILTER armed; waiting on confirmed lineups
Lane Health
2026-09-01
Palantir
17901 props
Brier 0.117
ECE 0.008
14d stable
Fangorn
17901 props
Brier 0.118
ECE 0.009
14d stable
Valinor
12243 props
Brier 0.112
ECE 0.005
14d stable
Model Lane
Home Runs
Choose the model that drives this board.
Lineups not posted
The in-lineup filter is armed, but no confirmed lineup artifact exists for this date yet. The board is showing the projected pool honestly.
Home-run board · largest Valinor gap versus market
| # | Player | Matchup | Sim | Implied | Gap | Three lanes · P/F/V | Spread | Park | Weather | Recent | Best line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 |
Edgar Quero
CWS
Lineup pending
|
CWS vs LAAJack Kochanowicz · slot 6 |
10.7%Valinor | 7.7%market | +2.7pp |
P
2.6
F
14.2
V
10.7
|
11.7pp | 1.096xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books |
| 02 |
Roman Anthony
BOS
Lineup pending
|
BOS vs TORDylan Cease · slot 2 |
12.9%Valinor | 12.0%market | +0.4pp |
P
13.9
F
17.2
V
12.9
|
4.3pp | 0.933xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 700 avg 3 books |
| 03 |
Spencer Horwitz
PIT
Lineup pending
|
PIT vs STLDustin May · slot 6 |
11.8%Valinor | 11.3%market | +0.1pp |
P
11.1
F
15.7
V
11.8
|
4.6pp | 0.959xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 755 avg 3 books |
| 04 | Lineup pending | CWS vs LAAJack Kochanowicz · slot 4 |
13.5%Valinor | 13.0%market | -0.1pp |
P
15.4
F
17.9
V
13.5
|
4.5pp | 1.096xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Strong Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 640 avg 3 books |
| 05 |
Ryan O'Hearn
PIT
Lineup pending
|
PIT vs STLDustin May · slot 3 |
12.9%Valinor | 13.6%market | -0.7pp |
P
13.5
F
17.2
V
12.9
|
4.3pp | 0.959xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 635 avg 3 books |
| 06 |
Trevor Larnach
MIN
Lineup pending
|
MIN vs SEALuis Castillo · slot 7 |
11.6%Valinor | 12.5%market | -0.9pp |
P
11.2
F
15.5
V
11.6
|
4.3pp | 0.928xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 700 avg 3 books |
| 07 |
Jarren Duran
BOS
Lineup pending
|
BOS vs TORDylan Cease · slot 1 |
10.7%Valinor | 11.8%market | -1.6pp |
P
12.8
F
14.2
V
10.7
|
3.5pp | 0.933xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 715 avg 3 books |
| 08 |
Wyatt Langford
TEX
Lineup pending
|
TEX vs NYYMax Fried · slot 1 |
13.5%Valinor | 15.1%market | -2.2pp |
P
15.7
F
17.9
V
13.5
|
4.5pp | 1.064xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 540 avg 3 books |
| 09 |
Josh Jung
TEX
Lineup pending
|
TEX vs NYYMax Fried · slot 7 |
10.7%Valinor | 12.6%market | -2.4pp |
P
8.0
F
14.2
V
10.7
|
6.2pp | 1.064xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 665 avg 3 books |
| 10 |
Brandon Nimmo
TEX
Lineup pending
|
TEX vs NYYMax Fried · slot 3 |
12.9%Valinor | 15.1%market | -2.7pp |
P
12.3
F
17.2
V
12.9
|
4.9pp | 1.064xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 540 avg 3 books |
| 11 |
Bryan Reynolds
PIT
Lineup pending
|
PIT vs STLDustin May · slot 5 |
10.7%Valinor | 13.6%market | -3.4pp |
P
11.5
F
14.2
V
10.7
|
3.5pp | 0.959xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 610 avg 3 books |
| 12 |
Josh Bell
MIN
Lineup pending
|
MIN vs SEALuis Castillo · slot 4 |
11.6%Valinor | 15.0%market | -3.9pp |
P
11.2
F
15.5
V
11.6
|
4.3pp | 0.928xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 545 avg 3 books |
| 13 |
Freddie Freeman
LAD
Lineup pending
|
LAD vs MIAChris Paddack · slot 2 |
12.9%Valinor | 16.5%market | -4.2pp |
P
13.5
F
17.2
V
12.9
|
4.3pp | 0.887xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 485 avg 3 books |
| 14 |
Cody Bellinger
NYY
Lineup pending
|
NYY vs TEXJack Leiter · slot 3 |
13.5%Valinor | 17.2%market | -4.4pp |
P
15.3
F
17.9
V
13.5
|
4.5pp | 1.064xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 460 avg 3 books |
| 15 |
Aaron Judge
NYY
Lineup pending
|
NYY vs TEXJack Leiter · slot 2 |
13.6%Valinor | 29.3%market | -16.8pp |
P
17.3
F
17.9
V
13.6
|
4.4pp | 1.064xHR pf | Neutralweather | Strong Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 230 avg 3 books |
| 16 |
Shohei Ohtani
LAD
Lineup pending
|
LAD vs MIAChris Paddack · slot 1 |
13.5%Valinor | 29.3%market | -16.8pp |
P
16.8
F
17.9
V
13.5
|
4.4pp | 0.887xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Strong Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 230 avg 3 books |
| 17 | Lineup pending | SD vs CHCMatthew Boyd · slot 6 |
10.2%Valinor | 9.1%market | +0.8pp |
P
6.7
F
13.6
V
10.2
|
6.8pp | 0.869xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 965 avg 3 books |
| 18 |
Chase Meidroth
CWS
Lineup pending
|
CWS vs LAAJack Kochanowicz · slot 1 |
6.8%Valinor | 7.7%market | -1.2pp |
P
2.3
F
9.1
V
6.8
|
6.8pp | 1.096xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books |
| 19 |
Jake Mangum
PIT
Lineup pending
|
PIT vs STLDustin May · slot 1 |
6.8%Valinor | 7.7%market | -1.2pp |
P
1.9
F
9.1
V
6.8
|
7.2pp | 0.959xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books |
| 20 |
Jakob Marsee
MIA
Lineup pending
|
MIA vs LADYoshinobu Yamamoto · slot 2 |
8.6%Valinor | 10.2%market | -2.0pp |
P
2.6
F
11.4
V
8.6
|
8.9pp | 0.887xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 845 avg 3 books |
| 21 | Lineup pending | SD vs CHCMatthew Boyd · slot 5 |
12.9%Valinor | 14.9%market | -2.5pp |
P
13.5
F
17.2
V
12.9
|
4.3pp | 0.869xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 550 avg 3 books |
| 22 |
Ben Rice
NYY
Lineup pending
|
NYY vs TEXJack Leiter · slot 6 |
13.5%Valinor | 15.7%market | -2.8pp |
P
18.4
F
17.9
V
13.5
|
5.0pp | 1.064xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 515 avg 3 books |
| 23 |
Dansby Swanson
CHC
Lineup pending
|
CHC vs SDRandy Vásquez · slot 6 |
10.7%Valinor | 13.1%market | -2.9pp |
P
12.2
F
14.2
V
10.7
|
3.5pp | 0.869xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 635 avg 3 books |
| 24 |
Wilyer Abreu
BOS
Lineup pending
|
BOS vs TORDylan Cease · slot 4 |
12.9%Valinor | 15.7%market | -3.3pp |
P
17.6
F
17.2
V
12.9
|
4.6pp | 0.933xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 515 avg 3 books |
| 25 | Lineup pending | TOR vs BOSRanger Suarez · slot 2 |
13.5%Valinor | 17.1%market | -4.2pp |
P
12.7
F
17.9
V
13.5
|
5.2pp | 0.933xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 465 avg 3 books |
| 26 |
Nico Hoerner
CHC
Lineup pending
|
CHC vs SDRandy Vásquez · slot 1 |
3.5%Valinor | 7.7%market | -4.5pp |
P
3.4
F
4.7
V
3.5
|
1.3pp | 0.869xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books |
| 27 |
Xavier Edwards
MIA
Lineup pending
|
MIA vs LADYoshinobu Yamamoto · slot 1 |
3.5%Valinor | 7.7%market | -4.5pp |
P
1.3
F
4.7
V
3.5
|
3.4pp | 0.887xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books |
| 28 |
Agustín Ramírez
MIA
Lineup pending
|
MIA vs LADYoshinobu Yamamoto · slot 4 |
10.2%Valinor | 14.2%market | -4.5pp |
P
8.8
F
13.6
V
10.2
|
4.8pp | 0.887xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 580 avg 3 books |
| 29 |
Alex Bregman
CHC
Lineup pending
|
CHC vs SDRandy Vásquez · slot 5 |
10.7%Valinor | 14.8%market | -4.6pp |
P
10.4
F
14.2
V
10.7
|
3.8pp | 0.869xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 555 avg 3 books |
| 30 |
Mookie Betts
LAD
Lineup pending
|
LAD vs MIAChris Paddack · slot 5 |
11.6%Valinor | 15.7%market | -4.6pp |
P
10.5
F
15.5
V
11.6
|
5.0pp | 0.887xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 515 avg 3 books |
| 31 |
Ian Happ
CHC
Lineup pending
|
CHC vs SDRandy Vásquez · slot 4 |
10.7%Valinor | 15.0%market | -4.8pp |
P
12.7
F
14.2
V
10.7
|
3.5pp | 0.869xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 545 avg 3 books |
| 32 | Lineup pending | SD vs CHCMatthew Boyd · slot 1 |
12.9%Valinor | 17.4%market | -5.1pp |
P
15.2
F
17.2
V
12.9
|
4.3pp | 0.869xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 455 avg 3 books |
| 33 | Lineup pending | BOS vs TORDylan Cease · slot 3 |
10.7%Valinor | 15.3%market | -5.2pp |
P
10.7
F
14.2
V
10.7
|
3.5pp | 0.933xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 530 avg 3 books |
| 34 | Lineup pending | SD vs CHCMatthew Boyd · slot 4 |
10.2%Valinor | 14.9%market | -5.2pp |
P
9.0
F
13.6
V
10.2
|
4.5pp | 0.869xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 550 avg 3 books |
| 35 |
Michael Busch
CHC
Lineup pending
|
CHC vs SDRandy Vásquez · slot 3 |
13.5%Valinor | 18.2%market | -5.4pp |
P
15.4
F
17.9
V
13.5
|
4.5pp | 0.869xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 430 avg 3 books |
| 36 |
Royce Lewis
MIN
Lineup pending
|
MIN vs SEALuis Castillo · slot 5 |
10.0%Valinor | 15.2%market | -5.7pp |
P
8.4
F
13.4
V
10.0
|
4.9pp | 0.928xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 535 avg 3 books |
| 37 | Lineup pending | NYY vs TEXJack Leiter · slot 5 |
13.5%Valinor | 18.6%market | -5.8pp |
P
18.0
F
17.9
V
13.5
|
4.6pp | 1.064xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 420 avg 3 books |
| 38 |
George Springer
TOR
Lineup pending
|
TOR vs BOSRanger Suarez · slot 1 |
11.8%Valinor | 17.9%market | -6.7pp |
P
13.6
F
15.7
V
11.8
|
3.9pp | 0.933xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 440 avg 3 books |
| 39 |
Matt Wallner
MIN
Lineup pending
|
MIN vs SEALuis Castillo · slot 2 |
12.9%Valinor | 19.5%market | -7.3pp |
P
13.8
F
17.2
V
12.9
|
4.3pp | 0.928xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 395 avg 3 books |
| 40 | Lineup pending | SD vs CHCMatthew Boyd · slot 3 |
7.8%Valinor | 14.8%market | -7.5pp |
P
9.3
F
10.3
V
7.8
|
2.6pp | 0.869xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 555 avg 3 books |
| 41 |
Kyle Tucker
LAD
Lineup pending
|
LAD vs MIAChris Paddack · slot 3 |
11.7%Valinor | 18.6%market | -7.6pp |
P
14.6
F
15.5
V
11.7
|
3.8pp | 0.887xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 420 avg 3 books |
| 42 |
Brandon Lowe
PIT
Lineup pending
|
PIT vs STLDustin May · slot 4 |
12.9%Valinor | 19.9%market | -7.7pp |
P
16.4
F
17.2
V
12.9
|
4.3pp | 0.959xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 385 avg 3 books |
| 43 | Lineup pending | LAD vs MIAChris Paddack · slot 4 |
10.7%Valinor | 17.9%market | -7.8pp |
P
11.0
F
14.2
V
10.7
|
3.5pp | 0.887xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 440 avg 3 books |
| 44 | Lineup pending | SD vs CHCMatthew Boyd · slot 2 |
11.7%Valinor | 19.1%market | -8.2pp |
P
11.7
F
15.5
V
11.7
|
3.8pp | 0.869xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 405 avg 3 books |
| 45 |
Byron Buxton
MIN
Lineup pending
|
MIN vs SEALuis Castillo · slot 3 |
12.9%Valinor | 20.5%market | -8.3pp |
P
13.9
F
17.2
V
12.9
|
4.3pp | 0.928xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 370 avg 3 books |
| 46 |
Luke Keaschall
MIN
Lineup pending
|
MIN vs SEALuis Castillo · slot 1 |
2.5%Valinor | 10.6%market | -8.4pp |
P
2.7
F
3.4
V
2.5
|
0.8pp | 0.928xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 810 avg 3 books |
| 47 | Lineup pending | NYY vs TEXJack Leiter · slot 4 |
13.5%Valinor | 21.7%market | -9.0pp |
P
16.3
F
17.9
V
13.5
|
4.4pp | 1.064xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 345 avg 3 books |
| 48 |
Max Muncy
LAD
Lineup pending
|
LAD vs MIAChris Paddack · slot 6 |
10.2%Valinor | 18.8%market | -9.2pp |
P
11.4
F
13.6
V
10.2
|
3.4pp | 0.887xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 415 avg 3 books |
| 49 |
Jake Burger
TEX
Lineup pending
|
TEX vs NYYMax Fried · slot 4 |
10.2%Valinor | 19.7%market | -10.2pp |
P
9.9
F
13.6
V
10.2
|
3.7pp | 1.064xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 390 avg 3 books |
| 50 |
Marcell Ozuna
PIT
Lineup pending
|
PIT vs STLDustin May · slot 2 |
10.2%Valinor | 20.5%market | -11.1pp |
P
10.4
F
13.6
V
10.2
|
3.4pp | 0.959xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 370 avg 3 books |
| 51 |
Corey Seager
TEX
Lineup pending
|
TEX vs NYYMax Fried · slot 2 |
10.7%Valinor | 21.2%market | -11.3pp |
P
13.1
F
14.2
V
10.7
|
3.5pp | 1.064xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 355 avg 3 books |
| 52 | Lineup pending | CWS vs LAAJack Kochanowicz · slot 3 |
10.2%Valinor | 22.7%market | -13.3pp |
P
11.1
F
13.6
V
10.2
|
3.3pp | 1.096xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 325 avg 3 books |
Data context
0 sample flagsStatus0roster/transaction rows
Lineups0confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows
Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.