Mithrandir Metrics
Palantir lane 2026-06-13 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
83
Matched
291
Lineups
207
HR BOARD 2026-06-13 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board · largest Palantir gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01 IN
WSH vs SEALuis Castillo · slot 3
23.4%Palantir 11.1%market +12.3pp
P 23.4
F 13.4
V 13.4
10.1pp 1.125xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 770 avg 3 books
02 IN
DET vs CLEJoey Cantillo · slot 2
25.8%Palantir 13.6%market +12.1pp
P 25.8
F 26.0
V 26.0
0.2pp 1.103xHR pf Neutralweather Elite Damageform FanDuel 605 avg 3 books
03 IN
NYM vs ATLMartín Pérez · slot 3
22.6%Palantir 12.1%market +10.5pp
P 22.6
F 26.0
V 26.0
3.4pp 1.019xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 695 avg 3 books
04
Cj Abrams WSH
IN
WSH vs SEALuis Castillo · slot 1
24.1%Palantir 13.9%market +10.1pp
P 24.1
F 26.0
V 26.0
1.9pp 1.125xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 590 avg 3 books
05 IN
BOS vs TEXJacob deGrom · slot 1
21.6%Palantir 11.8%market +9.8pp
P 21.6
F 17.2
V 17.2
4.4pp 1.081xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 715 avg 3 books
06 IN
MIL vs PHIAaron Nola · slot 1
19.6%Palantir 10.0%market +9.6pp
P 19.6
F 17.9
V 17.9
1.7pp 1.010xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 865 avg 3 books
07 IN
TOR vs NYYCam Schlittler · slot 6
17.9%Palantir 9.1%market +8.8pp
P 17.9
F 17.9
V 17.9
0.0pp 1.164xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 960 avg 3 books
08 IN
LAD vs CWSSean Burke · slot 2
24.6%Palantir 16.2%market +8.4pp
P 24.6
F 17.9
V 17.9
6.7pp 1.151xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 495 avg 3 books
09 IN
MIL vs PHIAaron Nola · slot 2
24.4%Palantir 16.4%market +7.9pp
P 24.4
F 26.0
V 26.0
1.6pp 1.010xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 485 avg 3 books
10 IN
HOU vs KCNoah Cameron · slot 1
19.2%Palantir 11.6%market +7.6pp
P 19.2
F 17.9
V 17.9
1.2pp 1.004xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 735 avg 3 books
11 IN
WSH vs SEALuis Castillo · slot 2
24.0%Palantir 16.4%market +7.5pp
P 24.0
F 26.0
V 26.0
2.0pp 1.125xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 485 avg 3 books
12 IN
WSH vs SEALuis Castillo · slot 4
19.9%Palantir 12.4%market +7.5pp
P 19.9
F 17.9
V 17.9
2.0pp 1.125xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 675 avg 3 books
13 IN
WSH vs SEALuis Castillo · slot 6
15.1%Palantir 7.7%market +7.5pp
P 15.1
F 17.9
V 17.9
2.8pp 1.125xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
14 Lineup pending
TEX vs BOSRanger Suarez · slot 1
22.2%Palantir 14.9%market +7.3pp
P 22.2
F 17.9
V 17.9
4.3pp 1.081xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 545 avg 3 books
15 IN
CIN vs AZMichael Soroka · slot 4
21.0%Palantir 13.7%market +7.3pp
P 21.0
F 17.9
V 17.9
3.1pp 1.149xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 600 avg 3 books
16 IN
CWS vs LADYoshinobu Yamamoto · slot 4
19.9%Palantir 13.0%market +6.9pp
P 19.9
F 17.9
V 17.9
2.0pp 1.151xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 640 avg 3 books
17 IN
LAD vs CWSSean Burke · slot 5
22.1%Palantir 15.4%market +6.7pp
P 22.1
F 17.9
V 17.9
4.2pp 1.151xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 525 avg 3 books
18 Lineup pending
SEA vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 5
20.4%Palantir 13.8%market +6.6pp
P 20.4
F 17.9
V 17.9
2.5pp 1.125xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 595 avg 3 books
19 IN
NYY vs TORKevin Gausman · slot 3
23.3%Palantir 16.9%market +6.4pp
P 23.3
F 17.9
V 17.9
5.4pp 1.164xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 470 avg 3 books
20 IN
BOS vs TEXJacob deGrom · slot 4
21.5%Palantir 15.5%market +6.0pp
P 21.5
F 17.9
V 17.9
3.6pp 1.081xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 520 avg 3 books
21 IN
MIL vs PHIAaron Nola · slot 3
18.4%Palantir 12.5%market +5.9pp
P 18.4
F 17.2
V 17.2
1.2pp 1.010xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
22 IN
KC vs HOUMike Burrows · slot 3
22.4%Palantir 16.7%market +5.7pp
P 22.4
F 26.0
V 26.0
3.6pp 1.004xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 475 avg 3 books
23 Lineup pending
WSH vs SEALuis Castillo · slot 5
15.5%Palantir 9.8%market +5.6pp
P 15.5
F 17.2
V 17.2
1.7pp 1.125xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 880 avg 3 books
24 IN
HOU vs KCNoah Cameron · slot 3
21.1%Palantir 15.6%market +5.5pp
P 21.1
F 17.9
V 17.9
3.2pp 1.004xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 515 avg 3 books
25 IN
BOS vs TEXJacob deGrom · slot 3
20.5%Palantir 15.2%market +5.4pp
P 20.5
F 17.2
V 17.2
3.3pp 1.081xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 535 avg 3 books
26
Jj Bleday CIN
IN
CIN vs AZMichael Soroka · slot 6
18.2%Palantir 12.8%market +5.4pp
P 18.2
F 11.4
V 11.4
6.8pp 1.149xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 650 avg 3 books
27 IN
DET vs CLEJoey Cantillo · slot 5
22.0%Palantir 16.7%market +5.3pp
P 22.0
F 17.9
V 17.9
4.1pp 1.103xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 475 avg 3 books
28 Lineup pending
ATH vs COLKyle Freeland · slot 6
14.1%Palantir 9.1%market +5.1pp
P 14.1
F 2.8
V 2.8
11.3pp 1.014xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 965 avg 3 books
29 IN
TOR vs NYYCam Schlittler · slot 5
17.3%Palantir 12.3%market +5.0pp
P 17.3
F 17.9
V 17.9
0.6pp 1.164xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 685 avg 3 books
30 IN
MIN vs STLMatthew Liberatore · slot 1
15.8%Palantir 10.9%market +4.9pp
P 15.8
F 9.1
V 9.1
6.7pp 1.010xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 785 avg 3 books
31 IN
LAD vs CWSSean Burke · slot 3
22.7%Palantir 18.1%market +4.6pp
P 22.7
F 17.9
V 17.9
4.8pp 1.151xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 430 avg 3 books
32 IN
CIN vs AZMichael Soroka · slot 5
16.8%Palantir 12.3%market +4.5pp
P 16.8
F 17.2
V 17.2
0.4pp 1.149xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 685 avg 3 books
33 IN
TOR vs NYYCam Schlittler · slot 1
21.2%Palantir 16.7%market +4.5pp
P 21.2
F 17.9
V 17.9
3.3pp 1.164xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 475 avg 3 books
34 Lineup pending
TEX vs BOSRanger Suarez · slot 3
19.3%Palantir 14.9%market +4.4pp
P 19.3
F 17.2
V 17.2
2.1pp 1.081xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 545 avg 3 books
35 Lineup pending
BAL vs SDRandy Vásquez · slot 5
16.1%Palantir 11.9%market +4.2pp
P 16.1
F 14.2
V 14.2
1.9pp 1.088xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 710 avg 3 books
36 IN
SEA vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 1
21.2%Palantir 17.2%market +4.0pp
P 21.2
F 17.2
V 17.2
4.0pp 1.125xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 460 avg 3 books
37 IN
SEA vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 4
20.0%Palantir 16.2%market +3.8pp
P 20.0
F 17.9
V 17.9
2.1pp 1.125xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 495 avg 3 books
38 IN
CWS vs LADYoshinobu Yamamoto · slot 6
11.3%Palantir 7.7%market +3.6pp
P 11.3
F 13.4
V 13.4
2.1pp 1.151xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
39 Lineup pending
TOR vs NYYCam Schlittler · slot 2
19.6%Palantir 16.2%market +3.4pp
P 19.6
F 17.9
V 17.9
1.6pp 1.164xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 495 avg 3 books
40
Josh Bell MIN
Lineup pending
MIN vs STLMatthew Liberatore · slot 4
17.8%Palantir 14.7%market +3.2pp
P 17.8
F 15.7
V 15.7
2.1pp 1.010xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 555 avg 3 books
41 Lineup pending
HOU vs KCNoah Cameron · slot 7
16.4%Palantir 13.4%market +3.1pp
P 16.4
F 15.5
V 15.5
1.0pp 1.004xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 620 avg 3 books
42 IN
KC vs HOUMike Burrows · slot 1
19.9%Palantir 16.9%market +3.1pp
P 19.9
F 17.2
V 17.2
2.7pp 1.004xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 470 avg 3 books
43
Josh Jung TEX
Lineup pending
TEX vs BOSRanger Suarez · slot 7
15.4%Palantir 12.6%market +2.9pp
P 15.4
F 15.5
V 15.5
0.1pp 1.081xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 665 avg 3 books
44 IN
NYM vs ATLMartín Pérez · slot 5
16.4%Palantir 13.6%market +2.7pp
P 16.4
F 13.6
V 13.6
2.8pp 1.019xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 605 avg 3 books
45 Lineup pending
SF vs CHCBen Brown · slot 3
17.8%Palantir 15.4%market +2.4pp
P 17.8
F 17.9
V 17.9
0.2pp 0.980xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 525 avg 3 books
46 IN
BAL vs SDRandy Vásquez · slot 1
19.6%Palantir 17.3%market +2.3pp
P 19.6
F 15.5
V 15.5
4.1pp 1.088xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 455 avg 3 books
47 IN
KC vs HOUMike Burrows · slot 5
13.0%Palantir 12.5%market +0.5pp
P 13.0
F 13.4
V 13.4
0.4pp 1.004xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
48 Lineup pending
TB vs LAAJosé Soriano · slot 3
17.3%Palantir 12.7%market +4.6pp
P 17.3
F 17.9
V 17.9
0.6pp 0.964xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 655 avg 3 books
49 IN
BAL vs SDRandy Vásquez · slot 4
21.1%Palantir 17.2%market +3.9pp
P 21.1
F 17.9
V 17.9
3.1pp 1.088xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 460 avg 3 books
50 IN
DET vs CLEJoey Cantillo · slot 4
20.2%Palantir 16.4%market +3.7pp
P 20.2
F 17.9
V 17.9
2.2pp 1.103xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 485 avg 3 books
51 Lineup pending
SF vs CHCBen Brown · slot 7
11.0%Palantir 7.7%market +3.3pp
P 11.0
F 10.3
V 10.3
0.6pp 0.980xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
52 Lineup pending
TB vs LAAJosé Soriano · slot 2
17.4%Palantir 14.2%market +3.2pp
P 17.4
F 17.9
V 17.9
0.5pp 0.964xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 575 avg 3 books
53
Ben Rice NYY
IN
NYY vs TORKevin Gausman · slot 6
18.6%Palantir 15.5%market +3.1pp
P 18.6
F 17.9
V 17.9
0.7pp 1.164xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 520 avg 3 books
54 Lineup pending
NYM vs ATLMartín Pérez · slot 4
18.7%Palantir 15.9%market +2.8pp
P 18.7
F 17.9
V 17.9
0.8pp 1.019xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 505 avg 3 books
55 Lineup pending
SF vs CHCBen Brown · slot 4
19.4%Palantir 16.7%market +2.7pp
P 19.4
F 15.5
V 15.5
3.9pp 0.980xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 475 avg 3 books
56 IN
NYY vs TORKevin Gausman · slot 5
20.8%Palantir 18.1%market +2.6pp
P 20.8
F 17.9
V 17.9
2.8pp 1.164xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 430 avg 3 books
57 Lineup pending
SF vs CHCBen Brown · slot 1
10.1%Palantir 7.7%market +2.4pp
P 10.1
F 11.4
V 11.4
1.4pp 0.980xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
58 IN
KC vs HOUMike Burrows · slot 4
18.9%Palantir 17.2%market +1.8pp
P 18.9
F 17.2
V 17.2
1.7pp 1.004xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 460 avg 3 books
59 Lineup pending
CLE vs DETTarik Skubal · slot 2
10.1%Palantir 8.3%market +1.7pp
P 10.1
F 11.1
V 11.1
1.0pp 1.103xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1060 avg 3 books
60 IN
HOU vs KCNoah Cameron · slot 4
19.5%Palantir 18.0%market +1.5pp
P 19.5
F 17.2
V 17.2
2.2pp 1.004xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 435 avg 3 books
61 IN
CLE vs DETTarik Skubal · slot 1
20.4%Palantir 19.4%market +1.0pp
P 20.4
F 17.2
V 17.2
3.2pp 1.103xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 395 avg 3 books
62 IN
HOU vs KCNoah Cameron · slot 5
16.7%Palantir 15.9%market +0.8pp
P 16.7
F 15.7
V 15.7
0.9pp 1.004xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 505 avg 3 books
63 Lineup pending
TB vs LAAJosé Soriano · slot 5
14.4%Palantir 13.6%market +0.7pp
P 14.4
F 13.6
V 13.6
0.8pp 0.964xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 605 avg 3 books
64 IN
CWS vs LADYoshinobu Yamamoto · slot 1
7.7%Palantir 8.0%market -0.3pp
P 7.7
F 4.7
V 4.7
3.0pp 1.151xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
65
Max Muncy LAD
IN
LAD vs CWSSean Burke · slot 6
18.4%Palantir 19.2%market -0.8pp
P 18.4
F 15.5
V 15.5
2.9pp 1.151xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
66 Lineup pending
SF vs CHCBen Brown · slot 2
20.0%Palantir 20.8%market -0.8pp
P 20.0
F 15.5
V 15.5
4.5pp 0.980xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 380 avg 3 books
67 IN
CIN vs AZMichael Soroka · slot 3
20.3%Palantir 21.7%market -1.4pp
P 20.3
F 17.2
V 17.2
3.1pp 1.149xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 360 avg 3 books
68 Lineup pending
ATH vs COLKyle Freeland · slot 3
20.5%Palantir 22.0%market -1.5pp
P 20.5
F 15.7
V 15.7
4.8pp 1.014xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 355 avg 3 books
69 IN
BAL vs SDRandy Vásquez · slot 3
16.1%Palantir 17.7%market -1.6pp
P 16.1
F 17.2
V 17.2
1.1pp 1.088xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
70 IN
NYM vs ATLMartín Pérez · slot 6
15.3%Palantir 17.0%market -1.7pp
P 15.3
F 11.4
V 11.4
3.9pp 1.019xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
71 IN
MIN vs STLMatthew Liberatore · slot 5
14.5%Palantir 16.7%market -2.1pp
P 14.5
F 14.2
V 14.2
0.3pp 1.010xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 500 avg 3 books
72 IN
BAL vs SDRandy Vásquez · slot 2
19.8%Palantir 23.0%market -3.1pp
P 19.8
F 15.5
V 15.5
4.3pp 1.088xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 335 avg 3 books
73 IN
MIN vs STLMatthew Liberatore · slot 3
18.8%Palantir 22.0%market -3.2pp
P 18.8
F 17.9
V 17.9
0.9pp 1.010xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 355 avg 3 books
74
Juan Soto NYM
IN
NYM vs ATLMartín Pérez · slot 1
19.5%Palantir 23.3%market -3.7pp
P 19.5
F 19.6
V 19.6
0.1pp 1.019xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 330 avg 3 books
75 IN
HOU vs KCNoah Cameron · slot 2
16.3%Palantir 20.2%market -3.9pp
P 16.3
F 14.2
V 14.2
2.1pp 1.004xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 395 avg 3 books
76 Lineup pending
TB vs LAAJosé Soriano · slot 1
3.7%Palantir 8.0%market -4.3pp
P 3.7
F 0.0
V 0.0
3.7pp 0.964xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
77 Lineup pending
TEX vs BOSRanger Suarez · slot 2
16.8%Palantir 21.7%market -4.9pp
P 16.8
F 15.5
V 15.5
1.3pp 1.081xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 360 avg 3 books
78 Lineup pending
SEA vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 3
21.2%Palantir 26.3%market -5.1pp
P 21.2
F 14.2
V 14.2
7.0pp 1.125xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 280 avg 3 books
79 Lineup pending
TEX vs BOSRanger Suarez · slot 4
14.4%Palantir 20.4%market -6.0pp
P 14.4
F 14.2
V 14.2
0.1pp 1.081xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 390 avg 3 books
80 Lineup pending
TB vs LAAJosé Soriano · slot 4
15.3%Palantir 22.0%market -6.7pp
P 15.3
F 15.7
V 15.7
0.4pp 0.964xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 355 avg 3 books
81 IN
CWS vs LADYoshinobu Yamamoto · slot 3
16.2%Palantir 23.3%market -7.1pp
P 16.2
F 13.4
V 13.4
2.8pp 1.151xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 330 avg 3 books
82 IN
LAD vs CWSSean Burke · slot 1
22.7%Palantir 29.8%market -7.1pp
P 22.7
F 26.0
V 26.0
3.3pp 1.151xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 235 avg 3 books
83 Lineup pending
ATH vs COLKyle Freeland · slot 1
18.5%Palantir 26.0%market -7.5pp
P 18.5
F 13.4
V 13.4
5.1pp 1.014xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 285 avg 3 books

Data context

780 sample flags
Status1619roster/transaction rows
Lineups207confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.