Mithrandir Metrics
Valinor lane 2026-06-13 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
83
Matched
291
Lineups
207
HR BOARD 2026-06-13 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board · largest Valinor gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01 IN
BOS vs TEXJacob deGrom · slot 1
17.2%Valinor 11.8%market +9.1pp
P 21.6
F 17.2
V 17.2
4.4pp 1.081xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 715 avg 3 books
02
Cj Abrams WSH
IN
WSH vs SEALuis Castillo · slot 1
26.0%Valinor 13.9%market +8.6pp
P 24.1
F 26.0
V 26.0
1.9pp 1.125xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 590 avg 3 books
03 IN
NYM vs ATLMartín Pérez · slot 3
26.0%Valinor 12.1%market +8.5pp
P 22.6
F 26.0
V 26.0
3.4pp 1.019xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 695 avg 3 books
04 IN
WSH vs SEALuis Castillo · slot 3
13.4%Valinor 11.1%market +8.5pp
P 23.4
F 13.4
V 13.4
10.1pp 1.125xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 770 avg 3 books
05 Lineup pending
BAL vs SDRandy Vásquez · slot 5
14.2%Valinor 11.9%market +8.0pp
P 16.1
F 14.2
V 14.2
1.9pp 1.088xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 710 avg 3 books
06 IN
WSH vs SEALuis Castillo · slot 4
17.9%Valinor 12.4%market +7.8pp
P 19.9
F 17.9
V 17.9
2.0pp 1.125xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 675 avg 3 books
07 Lineup pending
WSH vs SEALuis Castillo · slot 5
17.2%Valinor 9.8%market +7.6pp
P 15.5
F 17.2
V 17.2
1.7pp 1.125xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 880 avg 3 books
08 IN
CWS vs LADYoshinobu Yamamoto · slot 4
17.9%Valinor 13.0%market +7.4pp
P 19.9
F 17.9
V 17.9
2.0pp 1.151xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 640 avg 3 books
09 IN
LAD vs CWSSean Burke · slot 2
17.9%Valinor 16.2%market +7.3pp
P 24.6
F 17.9
V 17.9
6.7pp 1.151xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 495 avg 3 books
10 IN
CIN vs AZMichael Soroka · slot 4
17.9%Valinor 13.7%market +7.0pp
P 21.0
F 17.9
V 17.9
3.1pp 1.149xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 600 avg 3 books
11 IN
HOU vs KCNoah Cameron · slot 1
17.9%Valinor 11.6%market +6.9pp
P 19.2
F 17.9
V 17.9
1.2pp 1.004xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 735 avg 3 books
12 IN
MIL vs PHIAaron Nola · slot 1
17.9%Valinor 10.0%market +6.8pp
P 19.6
F 17.9
V 17.9
1.7pp 1.010xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 865 avg 3 books
13
Jj Bleday CIN
IN
CIN vs AZMichael Soroka · slot 6
11.4%Valinor 12.8%market +6.8pp
P 18.2
F 11.4
V 11.4
6.8pp 1.149xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 650 avg 3 books
14 IN
TOR vs NYYCam Schlittler · slot 5
17.9%Valinor 12.3%market +6.6pp
P 17.3
F 17.9
V 17.9
0.6pp 1.164xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 685 avg 3 books
15 IN
CIN vs AZMichael Soroka · slot 5
17.2%Valinor 12.3%market +6.4pp
P 16.8
F 17.2
V 17.2
0.4pp 1.149xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 685 avg 3 books
16 IN
MIL vs PHIAaron Nola · slot 3
17.2%Valinor 12.5%market +6.4pp
P 18.4
F 17.2
V 17.2
1.2pp 1.010xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
17 IN
NYM vs ATLMartín Pérez · slot 5
13.6%Valinor 13.6%market +6.1pp
P 16.4
F 13.6
V 13.6
2.8pp 1.019xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 605 avg 3 books
18 IN
LAD vs CWSSean Burke · slot 5
17.9%Valinor 15.4%market +6.0pp
P 22.1
F 17.9
V 17.9
4.2pp 1.151xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 525 avg 3 books
19 Lineup pending
TEX vs BOSRanger Suarez · slot 1
17.9%Valinor 14.9%market +5.6pp
P 22.2
F 17.9
V 17.9
4.3pp 1.081xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 545 avg 3 books
20 IN
TOR vs NYYCam Schlittler · slot 6
17.9%Valinor 9.1%market +5.2pp
P 17.9
F 17.9
V 17.9
0.0pp 1.164xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 960 avg 3 books
21 Lineup pending
ATH vs COLKyle Freeland · slot 6
2.8%Valinor 9.1%market +4.9pp
P 14.1
F 2.8
V 2.8
11.3pp 1.014xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 965 avg 3 books
22 IN
MIL vs PHIAaron Nola · slot 2
26.0%Valinor 16.4%market +4.7pp
P 24.4
F 26.0
V 26.0
1.6pp 1.010xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 485 avg 3 books
23 Lineup pending
SEA vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 5
17.9%Valinor 13.8%market +4.7pp
P 20.4
F 17.9
V 17.9
2.5pp 1.125xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 595 avg 3 books
24 IN
NYY vs TORKevin Gausman · slot 3
17.9%Valinor 16.9%market +4.6pp
P 23.3
F 17.9
V 17.9
5.4pp 1.164xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 470 avg 3 books
25 IN
WSH vs SEALuis Castillo · slot 2
26.0%Valinor 16.4%market +4.5pp
P 24.0
F 26.0
V 26.0
2.0pp 1.125xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 485 avg 3 books
26 IN
LAD vs CWSSean Burke · slot 3
17.9%Valinor 18.1%market +4.3pp
P 22.7
F 17.9
V 17.9
4.8pp 1.151xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 430 avg 3 books
27 IN
BAL vs SDRandy Vásquez · slot 1
15.5%Valinor 17.3%market +4.2pp
P 19.6
F 15.5
V 15.5
4.1pp 1.088xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 455 avg 3 books
28 IN
SEA vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 4
17.9%Valinor 16.2%market +4.1pp
P 20.0
F 17.9
V 17.9
2.1pp 1.125xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 495 avg 3 books
29
Josh Jung TEX
Lineup pending
TEX vs BOSRanger Suarez · slot 7
15.5%Valinor 12.6%market +4.0pp
P 15.4
F 15.5
V 15.5
0.1pp 1.081xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 665 avg 3 books
30
Josh Bell MIN
Lineup pending
MIN vs STLMatthew Liberatore · slot 4
15.7%Valinor 14.7%market +3.9pp
P 17.8
F 15.7
V 15.7
2.1pp 1.010xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 555 avg 3 books
31 IN
WSH vs SEALuis Castillo · slot 6
17.9%Valinor 7.7%market +3.9pp
P 15.1
F 17.9
V 17.9
2.8pp 1.125xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
32 IN
BOS vs TEXJacob deGrom · slot 3
17.2%Valinor 15.2%market +3.8pp
P 20.5
F 17.2
V 17.2
3.3pp 1.081xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 535 avg 3 books
33 IN
KC vs HOUMike Burrows · slot 5
13.4%Valinor 12.5%market +3.7pp
P 13.0
F 13.4
V 13.4
0.4pp 1.004xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
34 Lineup pending
TOR vs NYYCam Schlittler · slot 2
17.9%Valinor 16.2%market +3.7pp
P 19.6
F 17.9
V 17.9
1.6pp 1.164xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 495 avg 3 books
35 IN
HOU vs KCNoah Cameron · slot 3
17.9%Valinor 15.6%market +3.6pp
P 21.1
F 17.9
V 17.9
3.2pp 1.004xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 515 avg 3 books
36 Lineup pending
TEX vs BOSRanger Suarez · slot 3
17.2%Valinor 14.9%market +3.5pp
P 19.3
F 17.2
V 17.2
2.1pp 1.081xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 545 avg 3 books
37 IN
MIN vs STLMatthew Liberatore · slot 1
9.1%Valinor 10.9%market +3.4pp
P 15.8
F 9.1
V 9.1
6.7pp 1.010xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 785 avg 3 books
38 Lineup pending
HOU vs KCNoah Cameron · slot 7
15.5%Valinor 13.4%market +3.2pp
P 16.4
F 15.5
V 15.5
1.0pp 1.004xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 620 avg 3 books
39 IN
CWS vs LADYoshinobu Yamamoto · slot 6
13.4%Valinor 7.7%market +3.1pp
P 11.3
F 13.4
V 13.4
2.1pp 1.151xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
40 IN
SEA vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 1
17.2%Valinor 17.2%market +3.1pp
P 21.2
F 17.2
V 17.2
4.0pp 1.125xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 460 avg 3 books
41 IN
TOR vs NYYCam Schlittler · slot 1
17.9%Valinor 16.7%market +3.1pp
P 21.2
F 17.9
V 17.9
3.3pp 1.164xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 475 avg 3 books
42 IN
DET vs CLEJoey Cantillo · slot 2
26.0%Valinor 13.6%market +3.1pp
P 25.8
F 26.0
V 26.0
0.2pp 1.103xHR pf Neutralweather Elite Damageform FanDuel 605 avg 3 books
43 IN
DET vs CLEJoey Cantillo · slot 5
17.9%Valinor 16.7%market +3.1pp
P 22.0
F 17.9
V 17.9
4.1pp 1.103xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 475 avg 3 books
44 IN
KC vs HOUMike Burrows · slot 1
17.2%Valinor 16.9%market +3.0pp
P 19.9
F 17.2
V 17.2
2.7pp 1.004xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 470 avg 3 books
45 IN
KC vs HOUMike Burrows · slot 3
26.0%Valinor 16.7%market +2.9pp
P 22.4
F 26.0
V 26.0
3.6pp 1.004xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 475 avg 3 books
46 IN
BOS vs TEXJacob deGrom · slot 4
17.9%Valinor 15.5%market +2.8pp
P 21.5
F 17.9
V 17.9
3.6pp 1.081xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 520 avg 3 books
47 Lineup pending
SF vs CHCBen Brown · slot 3
17.9%Valinor 15.4%market +2.7pp
P 17.8
F 17.9
V 17.9
0.2pp 0.980xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 525 avg 3 books
48 IN
HOU vs KCNoah Cameron · slot 5
15.7%Valinor 15.9%market +2.5pp
P 16.7
F 15.7
V 15.7
0.9pp 1.004xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 505 avg 3 books
49 Lineup pending
NYM vs ATLMartín Pérez · slot 4
17.9%Valinor 15.9%market +2.4pp
P 18.7
F 17.9
V 17.9
0.8pp 1.019xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 505 avg 3 books
50 Lineup pending
TB vs LAAJosé Soriano · slot 3
17.9%Valinor 12.7%market +2.4pp
P 17.3
F 17.9
V 17.9
0.6pp 0.964xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 655 avg 3 books
51 Lineup pending
SF vs CHCBen Brown · slot 7
10.3%Valinor 7.7%market +2.2pp
P 11.0
F 10.3
V 10.3
0.6pp 0.980xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
52 IN
DET vs CLEJoey Cantillo · slot 4
17.9%Valinor 16.4%market +2.1pp
P 20.2
F 17.9
V 17.9
2.2pp 1.103xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 485 avg 3 books
53 IN
BAL vs SDRandy Vásquez · slot 4
17.9%Valinor 17.2%market +2.1pp
P 21.1
F 17.9
V 17.9
3.1pp 1.088xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 460 avg 3 books
54 Lineup pending
TB vs LAAJosé Soriano · slot 2
17.9%Valinor 14.2%market +2.1pp
P 17.4
F 17.9
V 17.9
0.5pp 0.964xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 575 avg 3 books
55
Ben Rice NYY
IN
NYY vs TORKevin Gausman · slot 6
17.9%Valinor 15.5%market +1.8pp
P 18.6
F 17.9
V 17.9
0.7pp 1.164xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 520 avg 3 books
56 Lineup pending
CLE vs DETTarik Skubal · slot 2
11.1%Valinor 8.3%market +1.7pp
P 10.1
F 11.1
V 11.1
1.0pp 1.103xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1060 avg 3 books
57 IN
HOU vs KCNoah Cameron · slot 4
17.2%Valinor 18.0%market +1.6pp
P 19.5
F 17.2
V 17.2
2.2pp 1.004xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 435 avg 3 books
58 Lineup pending
TB vs LAAJosé Soriano · slot 5
13.6%Valinor 13.6%market +1.5pp
P 14.4
F 13.6
V 13.6
0.8pp 0.964xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 605 avg 3 books
59 IN
NYY vs TORKevin Gausman · slot 5
17.9%Valinor 18.1%market +1.4pp
P 20.8
F 17.9
V 17.9
2.8pp 1.164xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 430 avg 3 books
60 Lineup pending
SF vs CHCBen Brown · slot 1
11.4%Valinor 7.7%market +1.4pp
P 10.1
F 11.4
V 11.4
1.4pp 0.980xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
61 Lineup pending
SF vs CHCBen Brown · slot 4
15.5%Valinor 16.7%market +1.3pp
P 19.4
F 15.5
V 15.5
3.9pp 0.980xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 475 avg 3 books
62 IN
CIN vs AZMichael Soroka · slot 3
17.2%Valinor 20.5%market +1.2pp
P 20.3
F 17.2
V 17.2
3.1pp 1.149xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 370 avg 3 books
63
Max Muncy LAD
IN
LAD vs CWSSean Burke · slot 6
15.5%Valinor 18.3%market +1.1pp
P 18.4
F 15.5
V 15.5
2.9pp 1.151xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 425 avg 3 books
64 IN
NYM vs ATLMartín Pérez · slot 6
11.4%Valinor 16.0%market +1.1pp
P 15.3
F 11.4
V 11.4
3.9pp 1.019xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 500 avg 3 books
65 IN
KC vs HOUMike Burrows · slot 4
17.2%Valinor 17.2%market +1.0pp
P 18.9
F 17.2
V 17.2
1.7pp 1.004xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 460 avg 3 books
66 IN
CLE vs DETTarik Skubal · slot 1
17.2%Valinor 19.4%market +1.0pp
P 20.4
F 17.2
V 17.2
3.2pp 1.103xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 395 avg 3 books
67 IN
CWS vs LADYoshinobu Yamamoto · slot 1
4.7%Valinor 7.7%market +0.7pp
P 7.7
F 4.7
V 4.7
3.0pp 1.151xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
68 IN
MIN vs STLMatthew Liberatore · slot 5
14.2%Valinor 15.9%market +0.7pp
P 14.5
F 14.2
V 14.2
0.3pp 1.010xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 505 avg 3 books
69 Lineup pending
SF vs CHCBen Brown · slot 2
15.5%Valinor 19.8%market +0.4pp
P 20.0
F 15.5
V 15.5
4.5pp 0.980xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 385 avg 3 books
70 IN
BAL vs SDRandy Vásquez · slot 3
17.2%Valinor 17.1%market -0.5pp
P 16.1
F 17.2
V 17.2
1.1pp 1.088xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 465 avg 3 books
71 Lineup pending
TEX vs BOSRanger Suarez · slot 4
14.2%Valinor 19.7%market -1.7pp
P 14.4
F 14.2
V 14.2
0.1pp 1.081xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 390 avg 3 books
72 Lineup pending
ATH vs COLKyle Freeland · slot 3
15.7%Valinor 21.5%market -1.7pp
P 20.5
F 15.7
V 15.7
4.8pp 1.014xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 350 avg 3 books
73 IN
HOU vs KCNoah Cameron · slot 2
14.2%Valinor 20.2%market -1.8pp
P 16.3
F 14.2
V 14.2
2.1pp 1.004xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 395 avg 3 books
74 IN
BAL vs SDRandy Vásquez · slot 2
15.5%Valinor 23.0%market -2.3pp
P 19.8
F 15.5
V 15.5
4.3pp 1.088xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 335 avg 3 books
75 Lineup pending
TEX vs BOSRanger Suarez · slot 2
15.5%Valinor 21.7%market -2.5pp
P 16.8
F 15.5
V 15.5
1.3pp 1.081xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 360 avg 3 books
76 IN
MIN vs STLMatthew Liberatore · slot 3
17.9%Valinor 22.0%market -3.0pp
P 18.8
F 17.9
V 17.9
0.9pp 1.010xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 355 avg 3 books
77
Juan Soto NYM
IN
NYM vs ATLMartín Pérez · slot 1
19.6%Valinor 23.3%market -3.1pp
P 19.5
F 19.6
V 19.6
0.1pp 1.019xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 330 avg 3 books
78 IN
CWS vs LADYoshinobu Yamamoto · slot 3
13.4%Valinor 23.3%market -4.1pp
P 16.2
F 13.4
V 13.4
2.8pp 1.151xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 330 avg 3 books
79 Lineup pending
SEA vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 3
14.2%Valinor 26.3%market -4.8pp
P 21.2
F 14.2
V 14.2
7.0pp 1.125xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 280 avg 3 books
80 Lineup pending
TB vs LAAJosé Soriano · slot 1
0.0%Valinor 8.0%market -5.4pp
P 3.7
F 0.0
V 0.0
3.7pp 0.964xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
81 IN
LAD vs CWSSean Burke · slot 1
26.0%Valinor 29.8%market -5.4pp
P 22.7
F 26.0
V 26.0
3.3pp 1.151xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 235 avg 3 books
82 Lineup pending
ATH vs COLKyle Freeland · slot 1
13.4%Valinor 26.0%market -7.1pp
P 18.5
F 13.4
V 13.4
5.1pp 1.014xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 285 avg 3 books
83 Lineup pending
TB vs LAAJosé Soriano · slot 4
15.7%Valinor 22.0%market -7.7pp
P 15.3
F 15.7
V 15.7
0.4pp 0.964xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 355 avg 3 books

Data context

780 sample flags
Status1619roster/transaction rows
Lineups207confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.