Mithrandir Metrics
Fangorn lane 2026-06-13 Refreshed Sep 3 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
83
Matched
291
Lineups
207
HR BOARD 2026-06-13 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-09-03
Palantir 18276 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18276 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 12618 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board · largest Fangorn gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01 IN
NYM vs ATLMartín Pérez · slot 3
26.0%Fangorn 12.1%market +13.9pp
P 22.6
F 26.0
V 26.0
3.4pp 1.019xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 695 avg 3 books
02 IN
DET vs CLEJoey Cantillo · slot 2
26.0%Fangorn 13.6%market +12.3pp
P 25.8
F 26.0
V 26.0
0.2pp 1.103xHR pf Neutralweather Elite Damageform FanDuel 605 avg 3 books
03
Cj Abrams WSH
IN
WSH vs SEALuis Castillo · slot 1
26.0%Fangorn 13.9%market +12.0pp
P 24.1
F 26.0
V 26.0
1.9pp 1.125xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 590 avg 3 books
04 IN
WSH vs SEALuis Castillo · slot 6
17.9%Fangorn 7.7%market +10.2pp
P 15.1
F 17.9
V 17.9
2.8pp 1.125xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
05 IN
MIL vs PHIAaron Nola · slot 2
26.0%Fangorn 16.4%market +9.5pp
P 24.4
F 26.0
V 26.0
1.6pp 1.010xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 485 avg 3 books
06 IN
WSH vs SEALuis Castillo · slot 2
26.0%Fangorn 16.4%market +9.5pp
P 24.0
F 26.0
V 26.0
2.0pp 1.125xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 485 avg 3 books
07 IN
KC vs HOUMike Burrows · slot 3
26.0%Fangorn 16.7%market +9.2pp
P 22.4
F 26.0
V 26.0
3.6pp 1.004xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 475 avg 3 books
08 IN
TOR vs NYYCam Schlittler · slot 6
17.9%Fangorn 9.1%market +8.8pp
P 17.9
F 17.9
V 17.9
0.0pp 1.164xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 960 avg 3 books
09 IN
MIL vs PHIAaron Nola · slot 1
17.9%Fangorn 10.0%market +7.9pp
P 19.6
F 17.9
V 17.9
1.7pp 1.010xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 865 avg 3 books
10 Lineup pending
WSH vs SEALuis Castillo · slot 5
17.2%Fangorn 9.8%market +7.4pp
P 15.5
F 17.2
V 17.2
1.7pp 1.125xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 880 avg 3 books
11 IN
HOU vs KCNoah Cameron · slot 1
17.9%Fangorn 11.6%market +6.3pp
P 19.2
F 17.9
V 17.9
1.2pp 1.004xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 735 avg 3 books
12 IN
CWS vs LADYoshinobu Yamamoto · slot 6
13.4%Fangorn 7.7%market +5.7pp
P 11.3
F 13.4
V 13.4
2.1pp 1.151xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
13 IN
TOR vs NYYCam Schlittler · slot 5
17.9%Fangorn 12.3%market +5.6pp
P 17.3
F 17.9
V 17.9
0.6pp 1.164xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 685 avg 3 books
14 IN
WSH vs SEALuis Castillo · slot 4
17.9%Fangorn 12.4%market +5.5pp
P 19.9
F 17.9
V 17.9
2.0pp 1.125xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 675 avg 3 books
15 IN
BOS vs TEXJacob deGrom · slot 1
17.2%Fangorn 11.8%market +5.4pp
P 21.6
F 17.2
V 17.2
4.4pp 1.081xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 715 avg 3 books
16 IN
CWS vs LADYoshinobu Yamamoto · slot 4
17.9%Fangorn 13.0%market +4.9pp
P 19.9
F 17.9
V 17.9
2.0pp 1.151xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 640 avg 3 books
17 IN
CIN vs AZMichael Soroka · slot 5
17.2%Fangorn 12.3%market +4.9pp
P 16.8
F 17.2
V 17.2
0.4pp 1.149xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 685 avg 3 books
18 IN
MIL vs PHIAaron Nola · slot 3
17.2%Fangorn 12.5%market +4.7pp
P 18.4
F 17.2
V 17.2
1.2pp 1.010xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
19 IN
CIN vs AZMichael Soroka · slot 4
17.9%Fangorn 13.7%market +4.2pp
P 21.0
F 17.9
V 17.9
3.1pp 1.149xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 600 avg 3 books
20 Lineup pending
SEA vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 5
17.9%Fangorn 13.8%market +4.1pp
P 20.4
F 17.9
V 17.9
2.5pp 1.125xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 595 avg 3 books
21 Lineup pending
TEX vs BOSRanger Suarez · slot 1
17.9%Fangorn 14.9%market +3.0pp
P 22.2
F 17.9
V 17.9
4.3pp 1.081xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 545 avg 3 books
22
Josh Jung TEX
Lineup pending
TEX vs BOSRanger Suarez · slot 7
15.5%Fangorn 12.6%market +2.9pp
P 15.4
F 15.5
V 15.5
0.1pp 1.081xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 665 avg 3 books
23 IN
LAD vs CWSSean Burke · slot 5
17.9%Fangorn 15.4%market +2.5pp
P 22.1
F 17.9
V 17.9
4.2pp 1.151xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 525 avg 3 books
24 Lineup pending
SF vs CHCBen Brown · slot 3
17.9%Fangorn 15.4%market +2.5pp
P 17.8
F 17.9
V 17.9
0.2pp 0.980xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 525 avg 3 books
25 IN
BOS vs TEXJacob deGrom · slot 4
17.9%Fangorn 15.5%market +2.4pp
P 21.5
F 17.9
V 17.9
3.6pp 1.081xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 520 avg 3 books
26 Lineup pending
BAL vs SDRandy Vásquez · slot 5
14.2%Fangorn 11.9%market +2.3pp
P 16.1
F 14.2
V 14.2
1.9pp 1.088xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 710 avg 3 books
27 Lineup pending
TEX vs BOSRanger Suarez · slot 3
17.2%Fangorn 14.9%market +2.3pp
P 19.3
F 17.2
V 17.2
2.1pp 1.081xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 545 avg 3 books
28 IN
HOU vs KCNoah Cameron · slot 3
17.9%Fangorn 15.6%market +2.3pp
P 21.1
F 17.9
V 17.9
3.2pp 1.004xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 515 avg 3 books
29 IN
WSH vs SEALuis Castillo · slot 3
13.4%Fangorn 11.1%market +2.3pp
P 23.4
F 13.4
V 13.4
10.1pp 1.125xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 770 avg 3 books
30 Lineup pending
HOU vs KCNoah Cameron · slot 7
15.5%Fangorn 13.4%market +2.1pp
P 16.4
F 15.5
V 15.5
1.0pp 1.004xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 620 avg 3 books
31 IN
BOS vs TEXJacob deGrom · slot 3
17.2%Fangorn 15.2%market +2.1pp
P 20.5
F 17.2
V 17.2
3.3pp 1.081xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 535 avg 3 books
32 Lineup pending
TOR vs NYYCam Schlittler · slot 2
17.9%Fangorn 16.2%market +1.8pp
P 19.6
F 17.9
V 17.9
1.6pp 1.164xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 495 avg 3 books
33 IN
LAD vs CWSSean Burke · slot 2
17.9%Fangorn 16.2%market +1.7pp
P 24.6
F 17.9
V 17.9
6.7pp 1.151xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 495 avg 3 books
34 IN
SEA vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 4
17.9%Fangorn 16.2%market +1.7pp
P 20.0
F 17.9
V 17.9
2.1pp 1.125xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 495 avg 3 books
35 IN
TOR vs NYYCam Schlittler · slot 1
17.9%Fangorn 16.7%market +1.2pp
P 21.2
F 17.9
V 17.9
3.3pp 1.164xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 475 avg 3 books
36 IN
DET vs CLEJoey Cantillo · slot 5
17.9%Fangorn 16.7%market +1.2pp
P 22.0
F 17.9
V 17.9
4.1pp 1.103xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 475 avg 3 books
37 IN
NYY vs TORKevin Gausman · slot 3
17.9%Fangorn 16.9%market +1.1pp
P 23.3
F 17.9
V 17.9
5.4pp 1.164xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 470 avg 3 books
38
Josh Bell MIN
Lineup pending
MIN vs STLMatthew Liberatore · slot 4
15.7%Fangorn 14.7%market +1.0pp
P 17.8
F 15.7
V 15.7
2.1pp 1.010xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 555 avg 3 books
39 IN
KC vs HOUMike Burrows · slot 5
13.4%Fangorn 12.5%market +0.9pp
P 13.0
F 13.4
V 13.4
0.4pp 1.004xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
40 IN
KC vs HOUMike Burrows · slot 1
17.2%Fangorn 17.7%market -0.5pp
P 19.9
F 17.2
V 17.2
2.7pp 1.004xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
41 IN
NYM vs ATLMartín Pérez · slot 5
13.6%Fangorn 14.3%market -0.7pp
P 16.4
F 13.6
V 13.6
2.8pp 1.019xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 600 avg 3 books
42 IN
SEA vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 1
17.2%Fangorn 18.0%market -0.8pp
P 21.2
F 17.2
V 17.2
4.0pp 1.125xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 455 avg 3 books
43 IN
LAD vs CWSSean Burke · slot 3
17.9%Fangorn 19.1%market -1.1pp
P 22.7
F 17.9
V 17.9
4.8pp 1.151xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 425 avg 3 books
44
Jj Bleday CIN
IN
CIN vs AZMichael Soroka · slot 6
11.4%Fangorn 13.4%market -2.0pp
P 18.2
F 11.4
V 11.4
6.8pp 1.149xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 645 avg 3 books
45 IN
MIN vs STLMatthew Liberatore · slot 1
9.1%Fangorn 11.4%market -2.3pp
P 15.8
F 9.1
V 9.1
6.7pp 1.010xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 775 avg 3 books
46 IN
BAL vs SDRandy Vásquez · slot 1
15.5%Fangorn 18.4%market -2.8pp
P 19.6
F 15.5
V 15.5
4.1pp 1.088xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
47 Lineup pending
ATH vs COLKyle Freeland · slot 6
2.8%Fangorn 9.5%market -6.7pp
P 14.1
F 2.8
V 2.8
11.3pp 1.014xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 950 avg 3 books
48 Lineup pending
TB vs LAAJosé Soriano · slot 3
17.9%Fangorn 12.7%market +5.2pp
P 17.3
F 17.9
V 17.9
0.6pp 0.964xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 655 avg 3 books
49 Lineup pending
SF vs CHCBen Brown · slot 1
11.4%Fangorn 7.7%market +3.7pp
P 10.1
F 11.4
V 11.4
1.4pp 0.980xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
50 Lineup pending
TB vs LAAJosé Soriano · slot 2
17.9%Fangorn 14.2%market +3.7pp
P 17.4
F 17.9
V 17.9
0.5pp 0.964xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 575 avg 3 books
51 Lineup pending
CLE vs DETTarik Skubal · slot 2
11.1%Fangorn 8.3%market +2.7pp
P 10.1
F 11.1
V 11.1
1.0pp 1.103xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1060 avg 3 books
52 Lineup pending
SF vs CHCBen Brown · slot 7
10.3%Fangorn 7.7%market +2.7pp
P 11.0
F 10.3
V 10.3
0.6pp 0.980xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
53
Ben Rice NYY
IN
NYY vs TORKevin Gausman · slot 6
17.9%Fangorn 15.5%market +2.4pp
P 18.6
F 17.9
V 17.9
0.7pp 1.164xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 520 avg 3 books
54 Lineup pending
NYM vs ATLMartín Pérez · slot 4
17.9%Fangorn 15.9%market +2.0pp
P 18.7
F 17.9
V 17.9
0.8pp 1.019xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 505 avg 3 books
55 IN
DET vs CLEJoey Cantillo · slot 4
17.9%Fangorn 16.4%market +1.5pp
P 20.2
F 17.9
V 17.9
2.2pp 1.103xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 485 avg 3 books
56 IN
BAL vs SDRandy Vásquez · slot 4
17.9%Fangorn 17.2%market +0.8pp
P 21.1
F 17.9
V 17.9
3.1pp 1.088xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 460 avg 3 books
57 IN
BAL vs SDRandy Vásquez · slot 3
17.2%Fangorn 17.7%market -0.5pp
P 16.1
F 17.2
V 17.2
1.1pp 1.088xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
58 Lineup pending
TB vs LAAJosé Soriano · slot 5
13.6%Fangorn 14.2%market -0.6pp
P 14.4
F 13.6
V 13.6
0.8pp 0.964xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 605 avg 3 books
59 IN
KC vs HOUMike Burrows · slot 4
17.2%Fangorn 18.0%market -0.8pp
P 18.9
F 17.2
V 17.2
1.7pp 1.004xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 455 avg 3 books
60 IN
HOU vs KCNoah Cameron · slot 5
15.7%Fangorn 16.8%market -1.1pp
P 16.7
F 15.7
V 15.7
0.9pp 1.004xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 495 avg 3 books
61 IN
NYY vs TORKevin Gausman · slot 5
17.9%Fangorn 19.2%market -1.3pp
P 20.8
F 17.9
V 17.9
2.8pp 1.164xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
62 IN
HOU vs KCNoah Cameron · slot 4
17.2%Fangorn 18.9%market -1.7pp
P 19.5
F 17.2
V 17.2
2.2pp 1.004xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 430 avg 3 books
63 Lineup pending
SF vs CHCBen Brown · slot 4
15.5%Fangorn 17.7%market -2.2pp
P 19.4
F 15.5
V 15.5
3.9pp 0.980xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
64 IN
MIN vs STLMatthew Liberatore · slot 5
14.2%Fangorn 16.7%market -2.4pp
P 14.5
F 14.2
V 14.2
0.3pp 1.010xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 500 avg 3 books
65 IN
CLE vs DETTarik Skubal · slot 1
17.2%Fangorn 20.4%market -3.2pp
P 20.4
F 17.2
V 17.2
3.2pp 1.103xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 390 avg 3 books
66 IN
CWS vs LADYoshinobu Yamamoto · slot 1
4.7%Fangorn 8.0%market -3.3pp
P 7.7
F 4.7
V 4.7
3.0pp 1.151xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
67
Juan Soto NYM
IN
NYM vs ATLMartín Pérez · slot 1
19.6%Fangorn 23.3%market -3.7pp
P 19.5
F 19.6
V 19.6
0.1pp 1.019xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 330 avg 3 books
68
Max Muncy LAD
IN
LAD vs CWSSean Burke · slot 6
15.5%Fangorn 19.2%market -3.7pp
P 18.4
F 15.5
V 15.5
2.9pp 1.151xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
69 IN
LAD vs CWSSean Burke · slot 1
26.0%Fangorn 29.8%market -3.9pp
P 22.7
F 26.0
V 26.0
3.3pp 1.151xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 235 avg 3 books
70 IN
MIN vs STLMatthew Liberatore · slot 3
17.9%Fangorn 22.0%market -4.1pp
P 18.8
F 17.9
V 17.9
0.9pp 1.010xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 355 avg 3 books
71 IN
CIN vs AZMichael Soroka · slot 3
17.2%Fangorn 21.7%market -4.5pp
P 20.3
F 17.2
V 17.2
3.1pp 1.149xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 360 avg 3 books
72 Lineup pending
SF vs CHCBen Brown · slot 2
15.5%Fangorn 20.8%market -5.3pp
P 20.0
F 15.5
V 15.5
4.5pp 0.980xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 380 avg 3 books
73 IN
NYM vs ATLMartín Pérez · slot 6
11.4%Fangorn 17.0%market -5.5pp
P 15.3
F 11.4
V 11.4
3.9pp 1.019xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
74 IN
HOU vs KCNoah Cameron · slot 2
14.2%Fangorn 20.2%market -6.0pp
P 16.3
F 14.2
V 14.2
2.1pp 1.004xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 395 avg 3 books
75 Lineup pending
TEX vs BOSRanger Suarez · slot 4
14.2%Fangorn 20.4%market -6.2pp
P 14.4
F 14.2
V 14.2
0.1pp 1.081xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 390 avg 3 books
76 Lineup pending
TEX vs BOSRanger Suarez · slot 2
15.5%Fangorn 21.7%market -6.2pp
P 16.8
F 15.5
V 15.5
1.3pp 1.081xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 360 avg 3 books
77 Lineup pending
TB vs LAAJosé Soriano · slot 4
15.7%Fangorn 22.0%market -6.2pp
P 15.3
F 15.7
V 15.7
0.4pp 0.964xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 355 avg 3 books
78 Lineup pending
ATH vs COLKyle Freeland · slot 3
15.7%Fangorn 22.0%market -6.2pp
P 20.5
F 15.7
V 15.7
4.8pp 1.014xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 355 avg 3 books
79 IN
BAL vs SDRandy Vásquez · slot 2
15.5%Fangorn 23.0%market -7.5pp
P 19.8
F 15.5
V 15.5
4.3pp 1.088xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 335 avg 3 books
80 Lineup pending
TB vs LAAJosé Soriano · slot 1
0.0%Fangorn 8.0%market -8.0pp
P 3.7
F 0.0
V 0.0
3.7pp 0.964xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
81 IN
CWS vs LADYoshinobu Yamamoto · slot 3
13.4%Fangorn 23.3%market -9.9pp
P 16.2
F 13.4
V 13.4
2.8pp 1.151xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 330 avg 3 books
82 Lineup pending
SEA vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 3
14.2%Fangorn 26.3%market -12.1pp
P 21.2
F 14.2
V 14.2
7.0pp 1.125xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 280 avg 3 books
83 Lineup pending
ATH vs COLKyle Freeland · slot 1
13.4%Fangorn 26.0%market -12.6pp
P 18.5
F 13.4
V 13.4
5.1pp 1.014xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 285 avg 3 books

Data context

780 sample flags
Status1619roster/transaction rows
Lineups207confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.