Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs
Home run board.
Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.
HR BOARD 2026-06-15 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay
PALANTIR production
FANGORN nonlinear lane
VALINOR calibrated lane
LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health
2026-09-01
Palantir
17901 props
Brier 0.117
ECE 0.008
14d stable
Fangorn
17901 props
Brier 0.118
ECE 0.009
14d stable
Valinor
12243 props
Brier 0.112
ECE 0.005
14d stable
Model Lane
Home Runs
Choose the model that drives this board.
Home-run board · largest Palantir gap versus market
| # | Player | Matchup | Sim | Implied | Gap | Three lanes · P/F/V | Spread | Park | Weather | Recent | Best line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 |
Daylen Lile
WSH
IN
|
WSH vs KCMitch Spence · slot 3 |
22.6%Palantir | 11.1%market | +11.5pp |
P
22.6
F
13.4
V
13.4
|
9.2pp | 1.013xHR pf | Neutralweather | Strong Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 770 avg 3 books |
| 02 |
Cj Abrams
WSH
IN
|
WSH vs KCMitch Spence · slot 1 |
23.2%Palantir | 13.9%market | +9.3pp |
P
23.2
F
26.0
V
26.0
|
2.8pp | 1.013xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 590 avg 3 books |
| 03 |
Yandy Díaz
TB
Lineup pending
|
TB vs LADEric Lauer · slot 2 |
22.6%Palantir | 14.8%market | +7.8pp |
P
22.6
F
26.0
V
26.0
|
3.4pp | 0.970xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 550 avg 3 books |
| 04 |
José Tena
WSH
Lineup pending
|
WSH vs KCMitch Spence · slot 6 |
14.6%Palantir | 7.7%market | +6.9pp |
P
14.6
F
17.2
V
17.2
|
2.6pp | 1.013xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books |
| 05 |
Luis García Jr.
WSH
IN
|
WSH vs KCMitch Spence · slot 4 |
19.2%Palantir | 12.4%market | +6.8pp |
P
19.2
F
17.2
V
17.2
|
2.0pp | 1.013xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 675 avg 3 books |
| 06 |
James Wood
WSH
IN
|
WSH vs KCMitch Spence · slot 2 |
23.1%Palantir | 16.4%market | +6.7pp |
P
23.1
F
26.0
V
26.0
|
2.9pp | 1.013xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 485 avg 3 books |
| 07 |
Ezequiel Tovar
COL
IN
|
COL vs CHCShota Imanaga · slot 4 |
19.2%Palantir | 12.9%market | +6.3pp |
P
19.2
F
14.2
V
14.2
|
5.0pp | 1.018xHR pf | Neutralweather | Strong Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 645 avg 3 books |
| 08 |
Ryan O'Hearn
PIT
Lineup pending
|
PIT vs ATHJ.t. Ginn · slot 3 |
19.2%Palantir | 13.0%market | +6.2pp |
P
19.2
F
17.9
V
17.9
|
1.3pp | 1.016xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 640 avg 3 books |
| 09 |
Jakob Marsee
MIA
IN
|
MIA vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 2 |
16.3%Palantir | 10.1%market | +6.2pp |
P
16.3
F
14.2
V
14.2
|
2.1pp | 1.030xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 855 avg 3 books |
| 10 |
Willi Castro
COL
IN
|
COL vs CHCShota Imanaga · slot 1 |
15.9%Palantir | 9.9%market | +6.0pp |
P
15.9
F
14.2
V
14.2
|
1.7pp | 1.018xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 875 avg 3 books |
| 11 |
Trea Turner
PHI
IN
|
PHI vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 1 |
19.9%Palantir | 14.1%market | +5.7pp |
P
19.9
F
15.7
V
15.7
|
4.1pp | 1.030xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 580 avg 3 books |
| 12 |
Ian Happ
CHC
IN
|
CHC vs COLMichael Lorenzen · slot 4 |
20.3%Palantir | 14.8%market | +5.5pp |
P
20.3
F
17.2
V
17.2
|
3.1pp | 1.018xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 550 avg 3 books |
| 13 |
Brandon Marsh
PHI
IN
|
PHI vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 6 |
16.3%Palantir | 11.0%market | +5.3pp |
P
16.3
F
17.9
V
17.9
|
1.6pp | 1.030xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 780 avg 3 books |
| 14 |
Bryan Reynolds
PIT
Lineup pending
|
PIT vs ATHJ.t. Ginn · slot 5 |
18.6%Palantir | 13.5%market | +5.2pp |
P
18.6
F
15.5
V
15.5
|
3.1pp | 1.016xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 615 avg 3 books |
| 15 |
Spencer Horwitz
PIT
Lineup pending
|
PIT vs ATHJ.t. Ginn · slot 6 |
16.3%Palantir | 11.3%market | +5.0pp |
P
16.3
F
17.2
V
17.2
|
0.9pp | 1.016xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 750 avg 3 books |
| 16 |
Keibert Ruiz
WSH
IN
|
WSH vs KCMitch Spence · slot 5 |
14.6%Palantir | 9.8%market | +4.8pp |
P
14.6
F
15.5
V
15.5
|
0.9pp | 1.013xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 880 avg 3 books |
| 17 |
Dansby Swanson
CHC
IN
|
CHC vs COLMichael Lorenzen · slot 6 |
17.8%Palantir | 13.1%market | +4.7pp |
P
17.8
F
17.2
V
17.2
|
0.6pp | 1.018xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 635 avg 3 books |
| 18 |
Alec Bohm
PHI
Lineup pending
|
PHI vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 5 |
15.3%Palantir | 10.7%market | +4.7pp |
P
15.3
F
14.2
V
14.2
|
1.1pp | 1.030xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 805 avg 3 books |
| 19 |
Freddie Freeman
LAD
Lineup pending
|
LAD vs TBNick Martinez · slot 2 |
20.7%Palantir | 16.2%market | +4.5pp |
P
20.7
F
17.2
V
17.2
|
3.5pp | 0.970xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 495 avg 3 books |
| 20 |
Nolan Schanuel
LAA
Lineup pending
|
LAA vs AZRyne Nelson · slot 7 |
13.0%Palantir | 8.5%market | +4.5pp |
P
13.0
F
13.4
V
13.4
|
0.4pp | 0.998xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 1035 avg 3 books |
| 21 |
Bryce Harper
PHI
IN
|
PHI vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 2 |
22.2%Palantir | 18.7%market | +3.6pp |
P
22.2
F
17.9
V
17.9
|
4.3pp | 1.030xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 415 avg 3 books |
| 22 | IN | SD vs STLDustin May · slot 3 |
18.5%Palantir | 15.5%market | +3.0pp |
P
18.5
F
13.4
V
13.4
|
5.1pp | 0.993xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 520 avg 3 books |
| 23 |
Josh Bell
MIN
IN
|
MIN vs TEXMacKenzie Gore · slot 4 |
17.5%Palantir | 14.7%market | +2.8pp |
P
17.5
F
15.7
V
15.7
|
1.7pp | 0.995xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 555 avg 3 books |
| 24 |
Alex Bregman
CHC
IN
|
CHC vs COLMichael Lorenzen · slot 5 |
16.9%Palantir | 14.6%market | +2.3pp |
P
16.9
F
15.7
V
15.7
|
1.2pp | 1.018xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 560 avg 3 books |
| 25 |
Michael Busch
CHC
IN
|
CHC vs COLMichael Lorenzen · slot 3 |
21.8%Palantir | 17.8%market | +4.0pp |
P
21.8
F
19.6
V
19.6
|
2.2pp | 1.018xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 440 avg 3 books |
| 26 |
Hunter Goodman
COL
IN
|
COL vs CHCShota Imanaga · slot 2 |
22.3%Palantir | 18.5%market | +3.8pp |
P
22.3
F
26.0
V
26.0
|
3.6pp | 1.018xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 420 avg 3 books |
| 27 |
Zach Neto
LAA
Lineup pending
|
LAA vs AZRyne Nelson · slot 1 |
19.8%Palantir | 16.3%market | +3.5pp |
P
19.8
F
17.9
V
17.9
|
1.9pp | 0.998xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 490 avg 3 books |
| 28 |
Luke Keaschall
MIN
IN
|
MIN vs TEXMacKenzie Gore · slot 1 |
14.1%Palantir | 10.9%market | +3.2pp |
P
14.1
F
4.7
V
4.7
|
9.4pp | 0.995xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 785 avg 3 books |
| 29 |
Jake Mangum
PIT
Lineup pending
|
PIT vs ATHJ.t. Ginn · slot 1 |
10.5%Palantir | 7.7%market | +2.8pp |
P
10.5
F
10.3
V
10.3
|
0.2pp | 1.016xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books |
| 30 |
Mookie Betts
LAD
Lineup pending
|
LAD vs TBNick Martinez · slot 5 |
18.2%Palantir | 15.4%market | +2.8pp |
P
18.2
F
15.5
V
15.5
|
2.7pp | 0.970xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 525 avg 3 books |
| 31 | IN | SD vs STLDustin May · slot 1 |
19.1%Palantir | 16.4%market | +2.7pp |
P
19.1
F
17.9
V
17.9
|
1.2pp | 0.993xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 485 avg 3 books |
| 32 |
Nico Hoerner
CHC
IN
|
CHC vs COLMichael Lorenzen · slot 1 |
9.8%Palantir | 7.7%market | +2.1pp |
P
9.8
F
11.1
V
11.1
|
1.3pp | 1.018xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books |
| 33 |
Brandon Lowe
PIT
Lineup pending
|
PIT vs ATHJ.t. Ginn · slot 4 |
21.3%Palantir | 19.4%market | +1.9pp |
P
21.3
F
17.9
V
17.9
|
3.4pp | 1.016xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 395 avg 3 books |
| 34 |
Xavier Edwards
MIA
IN
|
MIA vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 1 |
8.8%Palantir | 7.7%market | +1.2pp |
P
8.8
F
9.1
V
9.1
|
0.2pp | 1.030xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books |
| 35 |
Mike Trout
LAA
Lineup pending
|
LAA vs AZRyne Nelson · slot 2 |
19.0%Palantir | 18.3%market | +0.7pp |
P
19.0
F
17.9
V
17.9
|
1.1pp | 0.998xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 425 avg 3 books |
| 36 |
Kyle Tucker
LAD
Lineup pending
|
LAD vs TBNick Martinez · slot 3 |
18.8%Palantir | 18.1%market | +0.6pp |
P
18.8
F
15.5
V
15.5
|
3.3pp | 0.970xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 430 avg 3 books |
| 37 | IN | SD vs STLDustin May · slot 2 |
18.0%Palantir | 18.9%market | -0.9pp |
P
18.0
F
15.7
V
15.7
|
2.3pp | 0.993xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 430 avg 3 books |
| 38 |
Logan O'Hoppe
LAA
Lineup pending
|
LAA vs AZRyne Nelson · slot 5 |
14.5%Palantir | 16.0%market | -1.5pp |
P
14.5
F
15.5
V
15.5
|
1.0pp | 0.998xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 525 avg 3 books |
| 39 |
Royce Lewis
MIN
IN
|
MIN vs TEXMacKenzie Gore · slot 5 |
14.2%Palantir | 16.7%market | -2.4pp |
P
14.2
F
14.2
V
14.2
|
0.0pp | 0.995xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 500 avg 3 books |
| 40 |
Jo Adell
LAA
Lineup pending
|
LAA vs AZRyne Nelson · slot 4 |
17.1%Palantir | 19.6%market | -2.5pp |
P
17.1
F
17.2
V
17.2
|
0.2pp | 0.998xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 410 avg 3 books |
| 41 | Lineup pending | TB vs LADEric Lauer · slot 4 |
19.8%Palantir | 22.7%market | -3.0pp |
P
19.8
F
17.9
V
17.9
|
1.8pp | 0.970xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 340 avg 3 books |
| 42 |
Marcell Ozuna
PIT
Lineup pending
|
PIT vs ATHJ.t. Ginn · slot 2 |
17.6%Palantir | 21.1%market | -3.4pp |
P
17.6
F
14.2
V
14.2
|
3.4pp | 1.016xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 375 avg 3 books |
| 43 |
Byron Buxton
MIN
IN
|
MIN vs TEXMacKenzie Gore · slot 3 |
18.4%Palantir | 22.0%market | -3.6pp |
P
18.4
F
17.9
V
17.9
|
0.5pp | 0.995xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 355 avg 3 books |
| 44 |
Max Muncy
LAD
Lineup pending
|
LAD vs TBNick Martinez · slot 6 |
14.9%Palantir | 19.2%market | -4.4pp |
P
14.9
F
13.6
V
13.6
|
1.3pp | 0.970xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 420 avg 3 books |
| 45 |
Kyle Schwarber
PHI
IN
|
PHI vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 3 |
20.3%Palantir | 27.0%market | -6.7pp |
P
20.3
F
17.9
V
17.9
|
2.4pp | 1.030xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 270 avg 3 books |
| 46 |
Shohei Ohtani
LAD
Lineup pending
|
LAD vs TBNick Martinez · slot 1 |
18.5%Palantir | 29.8%market | -11.4pp |
P
18.5
F
17.9
V
17.9
|
0.6pp | 0.970xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 235 avg 3 books |
Data context
779 sample flagsStatus1622roster/transaction rows
Lineups126confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows
Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.