Mithrandir Metrics
Fangorn lane 2026-06-15 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
46
Matched
168
Lineups
126
HR BOARD 2026-06-15 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research
Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board · largest Fangorn gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01
Cj Abrams WSH
IN
WSH vs KCMitch Spence · slot 1
 26.0%Fangorn 13.9%market +12.0pp
P 23.2
F 26.0
V 26.0
2.8pp 1.013xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 590 avg 3 books
02
Yandy Díaz TB
Lineup pending
TB vs LADEric Lauer · slot 2
 26.0%Fangorn 14.8%market +11.2pp
P 22.6
F 26.0
V 26.0
3.4pp 0.970xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 550 avg 3 books
03
James Wood WSH
IN
WSH vs KCMitch Spence · slot 2
 26.0%Fangorn 16.4%market +9.5pp
P 23.1
F 26.0
V 26.0
2.9pp 1.013xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 485 avg 3 books
04
José Tena WSH
Lineup pending
WSH vs KCMitch Spence · slot 6
 17.2%Fangorn 7.7%market +9.5pp
P 14.6
F 17.2
V 17.2
2.6pp 1.013xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
05
Brandon Marsh PHI
IN
PHI vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 6
 17.9%Fangorn 11.0%market +6.9pp
P 16.3
F 17.9
V 17.9
1.6pp 1.030xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 780 avg 3 books
06
Spencer Horwitz PIT
Lineup pending
PIT vs ATHJ.t. Ginn · slot 6
 17.2%Fangorn 11.3%market +5.9pp
P 16.3
F 17.2
V 17.2
0.9pp 1.016xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 750 avg 3 books
07
Keibert Ruiz WSH
IN
WSH vs KCMitch Spence · slot 5
 15.5%Fangorn 9.8%market +5.6pp
P 14.6
F 15.5
V 15.5
0.9pp 1.013xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 880 avg 3 books
08
Ryan O'Hearn PIT
Lineup pending
PIT vs ATHJ.t. Ginn · slot 3
 17.9%Fangorn 13.0%market +4.9pp
P 19.2
F 17.9
V 17.9
1.3pp 1.016xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 640 avg 3 books
09
Nolan Schanuel LAA
Lineup pending
LAA vs AZRyne Nelson · slot 7
 13.4%Fangorn 8.5%market +4.9pp
P 13.0
F 13.4
V 13.4
0.4pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1035 avg 3 books
10
Luis García Jr. WSH
IN
WSH vs KCMitch Spence · slot 4
 17.2%Fangorn 12.4%market +4.8pp
P 19.2
F 17.2
V 17.2
2.0pp 1.013xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 675 avg 3 books
11
Willi Castro COL
IN
COL vs CHCShota Imanaga · slot 1
 14.2%Fangorn 9.9%market +4.3pp
P 15.9
F 14.2
V 14.2
1.7pp 1.018xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 875 avg 3 books
12
Dansby Swanson CHC
IN
CHC vs COLMichael Lorenzen · slot 6
 17.2%Fangorn 13.1%market +4.1pp
P 17.8
F 17.2
V 17.2
0.6pp 1.018xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 635 avg 3 books
13
Jakob Marsee MIA
IN
MIA vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 2
 14.2%Fangorn 10.1%market +4.1pp
P 16.3
F 14.2
V 14.2
2.1pp 1.030xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 855 avg 3 books
14
Alec Bohm PHI
Lineup pending
PHI vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 5
 14.2%Fangorn 10.7%market +3.5pp
P 15.3
F 14.2
V 14.2
1.1pp 1.030xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 805 avg 3 books
15
Ian Happ CHC
IN
CHC vs COLMichael Lorenzen · slot 4
 17.2%Fangorn 14.8%market +2.4pp
P 20.3
F 17.2
V 17.2
3.1pp 1.018xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 550 avg 3 books
16
Daylen Lile WSH
IN
WSH vs KCMitch Spence · slot 3
 13.4%Fangorn 11.1%market +2.3pp
P 22.6
F 13.4
V 13.4
9.2pp 1.013xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform DraftKings 770 avg 3 books
17
Bryan Reynolds PIT
Lineup pending
PIT vs ATHJ.t. Ginn · slot 5
 15.5%Fangorn 13.5%market +2.0pp
P 18.6
F 15.5
V 15.5
3.1pp 1.016xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 615 avg 3 books
18
Trea Turner PHI
IN
PHI vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 1
 15.7%Fangorn 14.1%market +1.6pp
P 19.9
F 15.7
V 15.7
4.1pp 1.030xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 580 avg 3 books
19
Ezequiel Tovar COL
IN
COL vs CHCShota Imanaga · slot 4
 14.2%Fangorn 12.9%market +1.3pp
P 19.2
F 14.2
V 14.2
5.0pp 1.018xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform FanDuel 645 avg 3 books
20
Alex Bregman CHC
IN
CHC vs COLMichael Lorenzen · slot 5
 15.7%Fangorn 14.6%market +1.2pp
P 16.9
F 15.7
V 15.7
1.2pp 1.018xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 560 avg 3 books
21
Josh Bell MIN
IN
MIN vs TEXMacKenzie Gore · slot 4
 15.7%Fangorn 14.7%market +1.0pp
P 17.5
F 15.7
V 15.7
1.7pp 0.995xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 555 avg 3 books
22
Freddie Freeman LAD
Lineup pending
LAD vs TBNick Martinez · slot 2
 17.2%Fangorn 16.2%market +1.0pp
P 20.7
F 17.2
V 17.2
3.5pp 0.970xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 495 avg 3 books
23
Bryce Harper PHI
IN
PHI vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 2
 17.9%Fangorn 19.6%market -1.7pp
P 22.2
F 17.9
V 17.9
4.3pp 1.030xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 410 avg 3 books
24
Jackson Merrill SD
IN
SD vs STLDustin May · slot 3
 13.4%Fangorn 16.3%market -2.9pp
P 18.5
F 13.4
V 13.4
5.1pp 0.993xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 515 avg 3 books
25
Hunter Goodman COL
IN
COL vs CHCShota Imanaga · slot 2
 26.0%Fangorn 18.5%market +7.5pp
P 22.3
F 26.0
V 26.0
3.6pp 1.018xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 420 avg 3 books
26
Nico Hoerner CHC
IN
CHC vs COLMichael Lorenzen · slot 1
 11.1%Fangorn 7.7%market +3.4pp
P 9.8
F 11.1
V 11.1
1.3pp 1.018xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
27
Jake Mangum PIT
Lineup pending
PIT vs ATHJ.t. Ginn · slot 1
 10.3%Fangorn 7.7%market +2.7pp
P 10.5
F 10.3
V 10.3
0.2pp 1.016xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
28
Michael Busch CHC
IN
CHC vs COLMichael Lorenzen · slot 3
 19.6%Fangorn 17.8%market +1.8pp
P 21.8
F 19.6
V 19.6
2.2pp 1.018xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 440 avg 3 books
29
Zach Neto LAA
Lineup pending
LAA vs AZRyne Nelson · slot 1
 17.9%Fangorn 16.3%market +1.6pp
P 19.8
F 17.9
V 17.9
1.9pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 490 avg 3 books
30
Fernando Tatis Jr. SD
IN
SD vs STLDustin May · slot 1
 17.9%Fangorn 16.4%market +1.5pp
P 19.1
F 17.9
V 17.9
1.2pp 0.993xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 485 avg 3 books
31
Xavier Edwards MIA
IN
MIA vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 1
 9.1%Fangorn 7.7%market +1.4pp
P 8.8
F 9.1
V 9.1
0.2pp 1.030xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
32
Logan O'Hoppe LAA
Lineup pending
LAA vs AZRyne Nelson · slot 5
 15.5%Fangorn 16.0%market -0.5pp
P 14.5
F 15.5
V 15.5
1.0pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 525 avg 3 books
33
Mookie Betts LAD
Lineup pending
LAD vs TBNick Martinez · slot 5
 15.5%Fangorn 16.1%market -0.6pp
P 18.2
F 15.5
V 15.5
2.7pp 0.970xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 520 avg 3 books
34
Mike Trout LAA
Lineup pending
LAA vs AZRyne Nelson · slot 2
 17.9%Fangorn 19.2%market -1.3pp
P 19.0
F 17.9
V 17.9
1.1pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
35
Jo Adell LAA
Lineup pending
LAA vs AZRyne Nelson · slot 4
 17.2%Fangorn 19.6%market -2.4pp
P 17.1
F 17.2
V 17.2
0.2pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 410 avg 3 books
36
Royce Lewis MIN
IN
MIN vs TEXMacKenzie Gore · slot 5
 14.2%Fangorn 16.7%market -2.4pp
P 14.2
F 14.2
V 14.2
0.0pp 0.995xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 500 avg 3 books
37
Brandon Lowe PIT
Lineup pending
PIT vs ATHJ.t. Ginn · slot 4
 17.9%Fangorn 20.4%market -2.5pp
P 21.3
F 17.9
V 17.9
3.4pp 1.016xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 390 avg 3 books
38
Manny Machado SD
IN
SD vs STLDustin May · slot 2
 15.7%Fangorn 18.9%market -3.1pp
P 18.0
F 15.7
V 15.7
2.3pp 0.993xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 430 avg 3 books
39
Kyle Tucker LAD
Lineup pending
LAD vs TBNick Martinez · slot 3
 15.5%Fangorn 19.1%market -3.6pp
P 18.8
F 15.5
V 15.5
3.3pp 0.970xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 425 avg 3 books
40
Byron Buxton MIN
IN
MIN vs TEXMacKenzie Gore · slot 3
 17.9%Fangorn 22.0%market -4.1pp
P 18.4
F 17.9
V 17.9
0.5pp 0.995xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 355 avg 3 books
41
Junior Caminero TB
Lineup pending
TB vs LADEric Lauer · slot 4
 17.9%Fangorn 22.7%market -4.8pp
P 19.8
F 17.9
V 17.9
1.8pp 0.970xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 340 avg 3 books
42
Max Muncy LAD
Lineup pending
LAD vs TBNick Martinez · slot 6
 13.6%Fangorn 19.2%market -5.7pp
P 14.9
F 13.6
V 13.6
1.3pp 0.970xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
43
Luke Keaschall MIN
IN
MIN vs TEXMacKenzie Gore · slot 1
 4.7%Fangorn 11.4%market -6.7pp
P 14.1
F 4.7
V 4.7
9.4pp 0.995xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 775 avg 3 books
44
Marcell Ozuna PIT
Lineup pending
PIT vs ATHJ.t. Ginn · slot 2
 14.2%Fangorn 21.1%market -6.8pp
P 17.6
F 14.2
V 14.2
3.4pp 1.016xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 375 avg 3 books
45
Kyle Schwarber PHI
IN
PHI vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 3
 17.9%Fangorn 27.0%market -9.1pp
P 20.3
F 17.9
V 17.9
2.4pp 1.030xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 270 avg 3 books
46
Shohei Ohtani LAD
Lineup pending
LAD vs TBNick Martinez · slot 1
 17.9%Fangorn 29.8%market -11.9pp
P 18.5
F 17.9
V 17.9
0.6pp 0.970xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 235 avg 3 books

Data context

779 sample flags
Status1622roster/transaction rows
Lineups126confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.