Mithrandir Metrics
Valinor lane 2026-06-15 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
46
Matched
168
Lineups
126
HR BOARD 2026-06-15 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research
Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board · largest Valinor gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01
Ezequiel Tovar COL
IN
COL vs CHCShota Imanaga · slot 4
 14.2%Valinor 12.9%market +8.1pp
P 19.2
F 14.2
V 14.2
5.0pp 1.018xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform FanDuel 645 avg 3 books
02
Cj Abrams WSH
IN
WSH vs KCMitch Spence · slot 1
 26.0%Valinor 13.9%market +7.8pp
P 23.2
F 26.0
V 26.0
2.8pp 1.013xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 590 avg 3 books
03
Daylen Lile WSH
IN
WSH vs KCMitch Spence · slot 3
 13.4%Valinor 11.1%market +7.7pp
P 22.6
F 13.4
V 13.4
9.2pp 1.013xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform DraftKings 770 avg 3 books
04
Willi Castro COL
IN
COL vs CHCShota Imanaga · slot 1
 14.2%Valinor 9.9%market +7.6pp
P 15.9
F 14.2
V 14.2
1.7pp 1.018xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 875 avg 3 books
05
Brandon Marsh PHI
IN
PHI vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 6
 17.9%Valinor 11.0%market +7.4pp
P 16.3
F 17.9
V 17.9
1.6pp 1.030xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 780 avg 3 books
06
Alec Bohm PHI
Lineup pending
PHI vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 5
 14.2%Valinor 10.7%market +7.2pp
P 15.3
F 14.2
V 14.2
1.1pp 1.030xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 805 avg 3 books
07
Luis García Jr. WSH
IN
WSH vs KCMitch Spence · slot 4
 17.2%Valinor 12.4%market +7.1pp
P 19.2
F 17.2
V 17.2
2.0pp 1.013xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 675 avg 3 books
08
Ryan O'Hearn PIT
Lineup pending
PIT vs ATHJ.t. Ginn · slot 3
 17.9%Valinor 13.0%market +7.0pp
P 19.2
F 17.9
V 17.9
1.3pp 1.016xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 640 avg 3 books
09
Bryan Reynolds PIT
Lineup pending
PIT vs ATHJ.t. Ginn · slot 5
 15.5%Valinor 13.5%market +6.8pp
P 18.6
F 15.5
V 15.5
3.1pp 1.016xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 615 avg 3 books
10
Keibert Ruiz WSH
IN
WSH vs KCMitch Spence · slot 5
 15.5%Valinor 9.8%market +6.6pp
P 14.6
F 15.5
V 15.5
0.9pp 1.013xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 880 avg 3 books
11
Yandy Díaz TB
Lineup pending
TB vs LADEric Lauer · slot 2
 26.0%Valinor 14.8%market +6.5pp
P 22.6
F 26.0
V 26.0
3.4pp 0.970xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 550 avg 3 books
12
Spencer Horwitz PIT
Lineup pending
PIT vs ATHJ.t. Ginn · slot 6
 17.2%Valinor 11.3%market +6.5pp
P 16.3
F 17.2
V 17.2
0.9pp 1.016xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 755 avg 3 books
13
Trea Turner PHI
IN
PHI vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 1
 15.7%Valinor 14.1%market +6.2pp
P 19.9
F 15.7
V 15.7
4.1pp 1.030xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 580 avg 3 books
14
Ian Happ CHC
IN
CHC vs COLMichael Lorenzen · slot 4
 17.2%Valinor 14.8%market +5.4pp
P 20.3
F 17.2
V 17.2
3.1pp 1.018xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 550 avg 3 books
15
Jakob Marsee MIA
IN
MIA vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 2
 14.2%Valinor 10.1%market +4.7pp
P 16.3
F 14.2
V 14.2
2.1pp 1.030xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 855 avg 3 books
16
Dansby Swanson CHC
IN
CHC vs COLMichael Lorenzen · slot 6
 17.2%Valinor 13.1%market +4.3pp
P 17.8
F 17.2
V 17.2
0.6pp 1.018xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 635 avg 3 books
17
Nolan Schanuel LAA
Lineup pending
LAA vs AZRyne Nelson · slot 7
 13.4%Valinor 8.5%market +4.2pp
P 13.0
F 13.4
V 13.4
0.4pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1035 avg 3 books
18
Jackson Merrill SD
IN
SD vs STLDustin May · slot 3
 13.4%Valinor 15.5%market +3.8pp
P 18.5
F 13.4
V 13.4
5.1pp 0.993xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 520 avg 3 books
19
Alex Bregman CHC
IN
CHC vs COLMichael Lorenzen · slot 5
 15.7%Valinor 14.6%market +3.7pp
P 16.9
F 15.7
V 15.7
1.2pp 1.018xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 560 avg 3 books
20
James Wood WSH
IN
WSH vs KCMitch Spence · slot 2
 26.0%Valinor 16.4%market +3.7pp
P 23.1
F 26.0
V 26.0
2.9pp 1.013xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 485 avg 3 books
21
Josh Bell MIN
IN
MIN vs TEXMacKenzie Gore · slot 4
 15.7%Valinor 14.7%market +3.5pp
P 17.5
F 15.7
V 15.7
1.7pp 0.995xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 555 avg 3 books
22
Freddie Freeman LAD
Lineup pending
LAD vs TBNick Martinez · slot 2
 17.2%Valinor 16.2%market +3.5pp
P 20.7
F 17.2
V 17.2
3.5pp 0.970xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 495 avg 3 books
23
José Tena WSH
Lineup pending
WSH vs KCMitch Spence · slot 6
 17.2%Valinor 7.7%market +3.4pp
P 14.6
F 17.2
V 17.2
2.6pp 1.013xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
24
Bryce Harper PHI
IN
PHI vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 2
 17.9%Valinor 18.7%market +2.7pp
P 22.2
F 17.9
V 17.9
4.3pp 1.030xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 415 avg 3 books
25
Mookie Betts LAD
Lineup pending
LAD vs TBNick Martinez · slot 5
 15.5%Valinor 15.4%market +2.1pp
P 18.2
F 15.5
V 15.5
2.7pp 0.970xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 525 avg 3 books
26
Luke Keaschall MIN
IN
MIN vs TEXMacKenzie Gore · slot 1
 4.7%Valinor 10.9%market +1.8pp
P 14.1
F 4.7
V 4.7
9.4pp 0.995xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 785 avg 3 books
27
Fernando Tatis Jr. SD
IN
SD vs STLDustin May · slot 1
 17.9%Valinor 16.4%market +1.6pp
P 19.1
F 17.9
V 17.9
1.2pp 0.993xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 485 avg 3 books
28
Zach Neto LAA
Lineup pending
LAA vs AZRyne Nelson · slot 1
 17.9%Valinor 16.3%market +1.5pp
P 19.8
F 17.9
V 17.9
1.9pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 490 avg 3 books
29
Michael Busch CHC
IN
CHC vs COLMichael Lorenzen · slot 3
 19.6%Valinor 17.8%market +1.0pp
P 21.8
F 19.6
V 19.6
2.2pp 1.018xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 440 avg 3 books
30
Nico Hoerner CHC
IN
CHC vs COLMichael Lorenzen · slot 1
 11.1%Valinor 7.7%market +0.9pp
P 9.8
F 11.1
V 11.1
1.3pp 1.018xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
31
Jake Mangum PIT
Lineup pending
PIT vs ATHJ.t. Ginn · slot 1
 10.3%Valinor 7.7%market +0.5pp
P 10.5
F 10.3
V 10.3
0.2pp 1.016xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
32
Kyle Tucker LAD
Lineup pending
LAD vs TBNick Martinez · slot 3
 15.5%Valinor 18.1%market +0.3pp
P 18.8
F 15.5
V 15.5
3.3pp 0.970xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 430 avg 3 books
33
Royce Lewis MIN
IN
MIN vs TEXMacKenzie Gore · slot 5
 14.2%Valinor 15.9%market +0.3pp
P 14.2
F 14.2
V 14.2
0.0pp 0.995xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 505 avg 3 books
34
Hunter Goodman COL
IN
COL vs CHCShota Imanaga · slot 2
 26.0%Valinor 18.5%market +0.3pp
P 22.3
F 26.0
V 26.0
3.6pp 1.018xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 420 avg 3 books
35
Logan O'Hoppe LAA
Lineup pending
LAA vs AZRyne Nelson · slot 5
 15.5%Valinor 15.2%market +0.2pp
P 14.5
F 15.5
V 15.5
1.0pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 530 avg 3 books
36
Manny Machado SD
IN
SD vs STLDustin May · slot 2
 15.7%Valinor 18.0%market +0.2pp
P 18.0
F 15.7
V 15.7
2.3pp 0.993xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 435 avg 3 books
37
Brandon Lowe PIT
Lineup pending
PIT vs ATHJ.t. Ginn · slot 4
 17.9%Valinor 19.9%market -0.3pp
P 21.3
F 17.9
V 17.9
3.4pp 1.016xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 385 avg 3 books
38
Marcell Ozuna PIT
Lineup pending
PIT vs ATHJ.t. Ginn · slot 2
 14.2%Valinor 20.5%market -0.7pp
P 17.6
F 14.2
V 14.2
3.4pp 1.016xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 370 avg 3 books
39
Mike Trout LAA
Lineup pending
LAA vs AZRyne Nelson · slot 2
 17.9%Valinor 18.8%market -1.7pp
P 19.0
F 17.9
V 17.9
1.1pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 415 avg 3 books
40
Max Muncy LAD
Lineup pending
LAD vs TBNick Martinez · slot 6
 13.6%Valinor 19.2%market -2.9pp
P 14.9
F 13.6
V 13.6
1.3pp 0.970xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
41
Jo Adell LAA
Lineup pending
LAA vs AZRyne Nelson · slot 4
 17.2%Valinor 19.6%market -3.0pp
P 17.1
F 17.2
V 17.2
0.2pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 410 avg 3 books
42
Xavier Edwards MIA
IN
MIA vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 1
 9.1%Valinor 8.0%market -3.2pp
P 8.8
F 9.1
V 9.1
0.2pp 1.030xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
43
Byron Buxton MIN
IN
MIN vs TEXMacKenzie Gore · slot 3
 17.9%Valinor 22.0%market -3.4pp
P 18.4
F 17.9
V 17.9
0.5pp 0.995xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 355 avg 3 books
44
Junior Caminero TB
Lineup pending
TB vs LADEric Lauer · slot 4
 17.9%Valinor 22.7%market -4.2pp
P 19.8
F 17.9
V 17.9
1.8pp 0.970xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 340 avg 3 books
45
Kyle Schwarber PHI
IN
PHI vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 3
 17.9%Valinor 27.0%market -5.7pp
P 20.3
F 17.9
V 17.9
2.4pp 1.030xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 270 avg 3 books
46
Shohei Ohtani LAD
Lineup pending
LAD vs TBNick Martinez · slot 1
 17.9%Valinor 29.8%market -9.9pp
P 18.5
F 17.9
V 17.9
0.6pp 0.970xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 235 avg 3 books

Data context

779 sample flags
Status1622roster/transaction rows
Lineups126confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.