Mithrandir Metrics
Valinor lane 2026-07-16 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
5
Matched
15
Lineups
18
HR BOARD 2026-07-16 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research
Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board · largest Valinor gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01
Marcus Semien NYM
Lineup pending
NYM vs PHIAaron Nola · slot 5
 13.7%Valinor 13.3%market -0.1pp
P 13.7
F 13.5
V 13.7
0.2pp 1.019xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform DraftKings 625 avg 3 books
02
Bo Bichette NYM
IN
NYM vs PHIAaron Nola · slot 3
 11.1%Valinor 11.7%market -1.1pp
P 18.7
F 15.0
V 11.1
7.6pp 1.019xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform FanDuel 720 avg 3 books
03
Jorge Polanco NYM
IN
NYM vs PHIAaron Nola · slot 4
 14.8%Valinor 16.5%market -2.3pp
P 17.2
F 15.0
V 14.8
2.3pp 1.019xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 485 avg 3 books
04
Francisco Lindor NYM
IN
NYM vs PHIAaron Nola · slot 2
 15.2%Valinor 18.9%market -4.4pp
P 19.1
F 15.0
V 15.2
4.1pp 1.019xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 410 avg 3 books
05
Juan Soto NYM
IN
NYM vs PHIAaron Nola · slot 1
 15.0%Valinor 23.6%market -9.4pp
P 18.5
F 18.1
V 15.0
3.5pp 1.019xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 310 avg 3 books

Data context

773 sample flags
Status1692roster/transaction rows
Lineups18confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.