Mithrandir Metrics
Palantir lane 2026-08-10 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
53
Matched
207
Lineups
180
HR BOARD 2026-08-10 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research
Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board · largest Palantir gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01
Nathan Lukes TOR
IN
TOR vs BOSSonny Gray · slot 6
 12.7%Palantir 9.1%market +3.5pp
P 12.7
F 13.4
V 8.6
4.8pp 0.990xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 960 avg 3 books
02
Jung Hoo Lee SF
IN
SF vs HOUHayden Wesneski · slot 7
 11.2%Palantir 7.7%market +3.5pp
P 11.2
F 13.0
V 9.6
3.4pp 0.989xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
03
Brice Turang MIL
IN
MIL vs SDCasey Mize · slot 1
 12.8%Palantir 10.0%market +2.8pp
P 12.8
F 13.4
V 10.0
3.3pp 0.976xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 865 avg 3 books
04
Jacob Wilson ATH
IN
ATH vs TBFreddy Peralta · slot 6
 11.2%Palantir 8.7%market +2.5pp
P 11.2
F 4.4
V 10.6
6.8pp 1.077xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1005 avg 3 books
05
Bo Bichette NYM
IN
NYM vs ATLBryce Elder · slot 3
 14.1%Palantir 11.7%market +2.4pp
P 14.1
F 13.4
V 9.7
4.4pp 1.073xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 725 avg 3 books
06
Willi Castro COL
IN
COL vs AZMichael Soroka · slot 1
 12.2%Palantir 9.8%market +2.4pp
P 12.2
F 13.2
V 10.8
2.4pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 885 avg 3 books
07
Jarren Duran BOS
IN
BOS vs TORJameson Taillon · slot 1
 14.1%Palantir 11.8%market +2.3pp
P 14.1
F 13.4
V 11.9
2.2pp 0.990xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 715 avg 3 books
08
Brandon Marsh PHI
IN
PHI vs STLHunter Dobbins · slot 6
 12.4%Palantir 11.0%market +1.5pp
P 12.4
F 13.4
V 10.0
3.4pp 1.038xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 780 avg 3 books
09
Edouard Julien COL
Lineup pending
COL vs AZMichael Soroka · slot 6
 12.2%Palantir 10.9%market +1.3pp
P 12.2
F 13.2
V 10.3
2.9pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 790 avg 3 books
10
Alec Bohm PHI
Lineup pending
PHI vs STLHunter Dobbins · slot 5
 11.7%Palantir 10.7%market +1.0pp
P 11.7
F 13.2
V 10.4
2.8pp 1.038xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 805 avg 3 books
11
Tyler Soderstrom ATH
IN
ATH vs TBFreddy Peralta · slot 5
 14.8%Palantir 14.0%market +0.8pp
P 14.8
F 13.4
V 14.3
1.4pp 1.077xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 585 avg 3 books
12
Ezequiel Tovar COL
Lineup pending
COL vs AZMichael Soroka · slot 4
 13.1%Palantir 12.5%market +0.6pp
P 13.1
F 13.2
V 12.2
1.0pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
13
William Contreras MIL
IN
MIL vs SDCasey Mize · slot 3
 12.7%Palantir 13.0%market -0.3pp
P 12.7
F 13.3
V 11.6
1.7pp 0.976xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 670 avg 3 books
14
Jesús Sánchez TOR
IN
TOR vs BOSSonny Gray · slot 5
 12.5%Palantir 12.8%market -0.4pp
P 12.5
F 13.4
V 11.2
2.2pp 0.990xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 680 avg 3 books
15
Yandy Díaz TB
IN
TB vs ATHJacob Lopez · slot 2
 14.7%Palantir 15.5%market -0.8pp
P 14.7
F 13.7
V 13.9
1.0pp 1.077xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 545 avg 3 books
16
Ryan Jeffers MIN
IN
MIN vs BALTrevor Rogers · slot 6
 11.8%Palantir 12.9%market -1.1pp
P 11.8
F 13.2
V 11.5
1.8pp 1.006xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 675 avg 3 books
17
Trea Turner PHI
Lineup pending
PHI vs STLHunter Dobbins · slot 1
 13.6%Palantir 14.8%market -1.2pp
P 13.6
F 13.3
V 13.7
0.4pp 1.038xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 575 avg 3 books
18
Marcus Semien NYM
IN
NYM vs ATLBryce Elder · slot 5
 12.6%Palantir 13.8%market -1.2pp
P 12.6
F 13.2
V 12.8
0.6pp 1.073xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 625 avg 3 books
19
Lawrence Butler ATH
IN
ATH vs TBFreddy Peralta · slot 4
 14.2%Palantir 15.6%market -1.4pp
P 14.2
F 13.4
V 14.3
0.9pp 1.077xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 540 avg 3 books
20
Freddie Freeman LAD
IN
LAD vs KCNoah Cameron · slot 2
 13.9%Palantir 16.4%market -2.5pp
P 13.9
F 13.3
V 13.3
0.6pp 0.980xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 510 avg 3 books
21
Mookie Betts LAD
IN
LAD vs KCNoah Cameron · slot 5
 13.9%Palantir 16.7%market -2.8pp
P 13.9
F 13.4
V 14.2
0.8pp 0.980xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 500 avg 3 books
22
Gunnar Henderson BAL
IN
BAL vs MINDean Kremer · slot 1
 13.6%Palantir 18.4%market -4.8pp
P 13.6
F 13.2
V 17.6
4.4pp 1.006xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
23
Luis Arraez SF
IN
SF vs HOUHayden Wesneski · slot 1
 10.8%Palantir 7.7%market +3.1pp
P 10.8
F 13.2
V 11.8
2.4pp 0.989xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
24
Luke Keaschall MIN
IN
MIN vs BALTrevor Rogers · slot 1
 11.2%Palantir 10.9%market +0.3pp
P 11.2
F 11.6
V 13.1
1.8pp 1.006xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 785 avg 3 books
25
Andy Pages LAD
IN
LAD vs KCNoah Cameron · slot 7
 13.1%Palantir 13.9%market -0.8pp
P 13.1
F 13.2
V 9.4
3.7pp 0.980xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 620 avg 3 books
26
Willson Contreras BOS
IN
BOS vs TORJameson Taillon · slot 3
 13.8%Palantir 15.9%market -2.0pp
P 13.8
F 13.3
V 15.3
2.0pp 0.990xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 530 avg 3 books
27
Wilyer Abreu BOS
IN
BOS vs TORJameson Taillon · slot 4
 14.0%Palantir 16.3%market -2.2pp
P 14.0
F 13.4
V 15.0
1.5pp 0.990xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 515 avg 3 books
28
Josh Bell MIN
IN
MIN vs BALTrevor Rogers · slot 4
 12.9%Palantir 15.4%market -2.5pp
P 12.9
F 13.2
V 13.8
0.9pp 1.006xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 550 avg 3 books
29
Lane Thomas KC
Lineup pending
KC vs LADTarik Skubal · slot 5
 11.3%Palantir 13.9%market -2.6pp
P 11.3
F 13.0
V 14.5
3.2pp 0.980xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 620 avg 3 books
30
Christian Yelich MIL
IN
MIL vs SDCasey Mize · slot 2
 14.4%Palantir 17.2%market -2.8pp
P 14.4
F 13.4
V 12.7
1.7pp 0.976xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 480 avg 3 books
31
Jorge Polanco NYM
IN
NYM vs ATLBryce Elder · slot 4
 13.8%Palantir 17.1%market -3.3pp
P 13.8
F 13.4
V 13.7
0.4pp 1.073xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 485 avg 3 books
32
Willy Adames SF
IN
SF vs HOUHayden Wesneski · slot 4
 14.2%Palantir 17.7%market -3.5pp
P 14.2
F 13.3
V 15.6
2.3pp 0.989xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
33
Zach Neto LAA
IN
LAA vs TEXMacKenzie Gore · slot 1
 14.1%Palantir 17.7%market -3.6pp
P 14.1
F 13.4
V 13.8
0.7pp 0.993xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
34
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR
IN
TOR vs BOSSonny Gray · slot 2
 13.1%Palantir 17.0%market -3.9pp
P 13.1
F 13.4
V 13.1
0.3pp 0.990xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
35
Taylor Ward BAL
Lineup pending
BAL vs MINDean Kremer · slot 4
 14.0%Palantir 18.0%market -4.0pp
P 14.0
F 13.4
V 17.2
3.8pp 1.006xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 455 avg 3 books
36
George Springer TOR
IN
TOR vs BOSSonny Gray · slot 1
 13.5%Palantir 17.7%market -4.2pp
P 13.5
F 13.3
V 13.1
0.5pp 0.990xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
37
Hunter Goodman COL
IN
COL vs AZMichael Soroka · slot 2
 13.6%Palantir 18.0%market -4.4pp
P 13.6
F 13.4
V 13.3
0.4pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 455 avg 3 books
38
Bobby Witt Jr. KC
IN
KC vs LADTarik Skubal · slot 1
 13.6%Palantir 18.4%market -4.7pp
P 13.6
F 13.3
V 16.0
2.7pp 0.980xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
39
Daulton Varsho TOR
IN
TOR vs BOSSonny Gray · slot 4
 12.6%Palantir 17.5%market -4.9pp
P 12.6
F 13.2
V 12.9
0.6pp 0.990xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 470 avg 3 books
40
Royce Lewis MIN
IN
MIN vs BALTrevor Rogers · slot 5
 11.7%Palantir 16.7%market -5.0pp
P 11.7
F 13.2
V 14.0
2.2pp 1.006xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 500 avg 3 books
41
Francisco Lindor NYM
IN
NYM vs ATLBryce Elder · slot 2
 14.4%Palantir 19.4%market -5.0pp
P 14.4
F 13.4
V 14.0
1.1pp 1.073xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 415 avg 3 books
42
Kyle Tucker LAD
Lineup pending
LAD vs KCNoah Cameron · slot 3
 13.3%Palantir 18.4%market -5.1pp
P 13.3
F 13.2
V 13.2
0.1pp 0.980xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
43
Tyler O'Neill BAL
IN
BAL vs MINDean Kremer · slot 3
 12.5%Palantir 17.7%market -5.2pp
P 12.5
F 13.3
V 16.2
3.7pp 1.006xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
44
Bryce Harper PHI
IN
PHI vs STLHunter Dobbins · slot 2
 14.2%Palantir 19.6%market -5.4pp
P 14.2
F 13.4
V 14.5
1.1pp 1.038xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 410 avg 3 books
45
Salvador Perez KC
IN
KC vs LADTarik Skubal · slot 4
 13.3%Palantir 18.7%market -5.4pp
P 13.3
F 13.3
V 16.7
3.4pp 0.980xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 435 avg 3 books
46
Teoscar Hernández LAD
IN
LAD vs KCNoah Cameron · slot 4
 13.2%Palantir 19.1%market -5.9pp
P 13.2
F 13.2
V 14.4
1.2pp 0.980xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 425 avg 3 books
47
Mike Trout LAA
IN
LAA vs TEXMacKenzie Gore · slot 2
 13.9%Palantir 19.8%market -5.9pp
P 13.9
F 13.4
V 13.5
0.5pp 0.993xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 405 avg 3 books
48
Rafael Devers SF
IN
SF vs HOUHayden Wesneski · slot 2
 14.3%Palantir 20.8%market -6.5pp
P 14.3
F 13.4
V 16.4
3.1pp 0.989xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 380 avg 3 books
49
Jo Adell LAA
Lineup pending
LAA vs TEXMacKenzie Gore · slot 4
 13.4%Palantir 20.8%market -7.5pp
P 13.4
F 13.4
V 13.4
0.1pp 0.993xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 380 avg 3 books
50
Junior Caminero TB
IN
TB vs ATHJacob Lopez · slot 4
 13.9%Palantir 22.7%market -8.8pp
P 13.9
F 13.4
V 13.6
0.5pp 1.077xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 340 avg 3 books
51
Pete Alonso BAL
IN
BAL vs MINDean Kremer · slot 2
 13.6%Palantir 23.0%market -9.3pp
P 13.6
F 13.2
V 17.9
4.7pp 1.006xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 335 avg 3 books
52
Kyle Schwarber PHI
IN
PHI vs STLHunter Dobbins · slot 3
 13.7%Palantir 27.0%market -13.3pp
P 13.7
F 13.4
V 14.4
1.0pp 1.038xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 270 avg 3 books
53
Shohei Ohtani LAD
IN
LAD vs KCNoah Cameron · slot 1
 13.2%Palantir 29.0%market -15.8pp
P 13.2
F 13.4
V 17.3
4.1pp 0.980xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 245 avg 3 books

Data context

0 sample flags
Status2519roster/transaction rows
Lineups180confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.