Mithrandir Metrics
Valinor lane 2026-08-10 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
53
Matched
207
Lineups
180
HR BOARD 2026-08-10 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research
Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board · largest Valinor gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01
Jung Hoo Lee SF
IN
SF vs HOUHayden Wesneski · slot 7
 9.6%Valinor 7.7%market +1.6pp
P 11.2
F 13.0
V 9.6
3.4pp 0.989xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
02
Jacob Wilson ATH
IN
ATH vs TBFreddy Peralta · slot 6
 10.6%Valinor 8.7%market +1.5pp
P 11.2
F 4.4
V 10.6
6.8pp 1.077xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1005 avg 3 books
03
Willi Castro COL
IN
COL vs AZMichael Soroka · slot 1
 10.8%Valinor 9.8%market +0.7pp
P 12.2
F 13.2
V 10.8
2.4pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 885 avg 3 books
04
Jarren Duran BOS
IN
BOS vs TORJameson Taillon · slot 1
 11.9%Valinor 11.8%market -0.3pp
P 14.1
F 13.4
V 11.9
2.2pp 0.990xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 715 avg 3 books
05
Tyler Soderstrom ATH
IN
ATH vs TBFreddy Peralta · slot 5
 14.3%Valinor 14.2%market -0.4pp
P 14.8
F 13.4
V 14.3
1.4pp 1.077xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 580 avg 3 books
06
Brice Turang MIL
IN
MIL vs SDCasey Mize · slot 1
 10.0%Valinor 10.1%market -0.5pp
P 12.8
F 13.4
V 10.0
3.3pp 0.976xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 850 avg 3 books
07
Gunnar Henderson BAL
IN
BAL vs MINDean Kremer · slot 1
 17.6%Valinor 17.7%market -0.7pp
P 13.6
F 13.2
V 17.6
4.4pp 1.006xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 445 avg 3 books
08
Alec Bohm PHI
Lineup pending
PHI vs STLHunter Dobbins · slot 5
 10.4%Valinor 10.7%market -0.8pp
P 11.7
F 13.2
V 10.4
2.8pp 1.038xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 795 avg 3 books
09
Ezequiel Tovar COL
Lineup pending
COL vs AZMichael Soroka · slot 4
 12.2%Valinor 13.1%market -0.9pp
P 13.1
F 13.2
V 12.2
1.0pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 665 avg 3 books
10
Marcus Semien NYM
IN
NYM vs ATLBryce Elder · slot 5
 12.8%Valinor 13.3%market -0.9pp
P 12.6
F 13.2
V 12.8
0.6pp 1.073xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 625 avg 3 books
11
Nathan Lukes TOR
IN
TOR vs BOSSonny Gray · slot 6
 8.6%Valinor 9.2%market -1.0pp
P 12.7
F 13.4
V 8.6
4.8pp 0.990xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 940 avg 3 books
12
Edouard Julien COL
Lineup pending
COL vs AZMichael Soroka · slot 6
 10.3%Valinor 10.9%market -1.0pp
P 12.2
F 13.2
V 10.3
2.9pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 785 avg 3 books
13
Trea Turner PHI
Lineup pending
PHI vs STLHunter Dobbins · slot 1
 13.7%Valinor 14.3%market -1.1pp
P 13.6
F 13.3
V 13.7
0.4pp 1.038xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 575 avg 3 books
14
Lawrence Butler ATH
IN
ATH vs TBFreddy Peralta · slot 4
 14.3%Valinor 15.1%market -1.3pp
P 14.2
F 13.4
V 14.3
0.9pp 1.077xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 540 avg 3 books
15
William Contreras MIL
IN
MIL vs SDCasey Mize · slot 3
 11.6%Valinor 12.5%market -1.4pp
P 12.7
F 13.3
V 11.6
1.7pp 0.976xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
16
Ryan Jeffers MIN
IN
MIN vs BALTrevor Rogers · slot 6
 11.5%Valinor 12.4%market -1.5pp
P 11.8
F 13.2
V 11.5
1.8pp 1.006xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 675 avg 3 books
17
Brandon Marsh PHI
IN
PHI vs STLHunter Dobbins · slot 6
 10.0%Valinor 11.0%market -1.5pp
P 12.4
F 13.4
V 10.0
3.4pp 1.038xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 770 avg 3 books
18
Yandy Díaz TB
IN
TB vs ATHJacob Lopez · slot 2
 13.9%Valinor 15.0%market -1.6pp
P 14.7
F 13.7
V 13.9
1.0pp 1.077xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 545 avg 3 books
19
Jesús Sánchez TOR
IN
TOR vs BOSSonny Gray · slot 5
 11.2%Valinor 12.3%market -1.6pp
P 12.5
F 13.4
V 11.2
2.2pp 0.990xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 680 avg 3 books
20
Bo Bichette NYM
IN
NYM vs ATLBryce Elder · slot 3
 9.7%Valinor 11.7%market -2.5pp
P 14.1
F 13.4
V 9.7
4.4pp 1.073xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 720 avg 3 books
21
Mookie Betts LAD
IN
LAD vs KCNoah Cameron · slot 5
 14.2%Valinor 16.2%market -2.6pp
P 13.9
F 13.4
V 14.2
0.8pp 0.980xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 495 avg 3 books
22
Freddie Freeman LAD
IN
LAD vs KCNoah Cameron · slot 2
 13.3%Valinor 15.8%market -3.0pp
P 13.9
F 13.3
V 13.3
0.6pp 0.980xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 510 avg 3 books
23
Shohei Ohtani LAD
IN
LAD vs KCNoah Cameron · slot 1
 17.3%Valinor 28.4%market -12.1pp
P 13.2
F 13.4
V 17.3
4.1pp 0.980xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 240 avg 3 books
24
Kyle Schwarber PHI
IN
PHI vs STLHunter Dobbins · slot 3
 14.4%Valinor 26.5%market -13.0pp
P 13.7
F 13.4
V 14.4
1.0pp 1.038xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 265 avg 3 books
25
Luis Arraez SF
IN
SF vs HOUHayden Wesneski · slot 1
 11.8%Valinor 7.7%market +3.9pp
P 10.8
F 13.2
V 11.8
2.4pp 0.989xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
26
Luke Keaschall MIN
IN
MIN vs BALTrevor Rogers · slot 1
 13.1%Valinor 10.9%market +1.8pp
P 11.2
F 11.6
V 13.1
1.8pp 1.006xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 785 avg 3 books
27
Lane Thomas KC
Lineup pending
KC vs LADTarik Skubal · slot 5
 14.5%Valinor 13.3%market +0.7pp
P 11.3
F 13.0
V 14.5
3.2pp 0.980xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 625 avg 3 books
28
Willson Contreras BOS
IN
BOS vs TORJameson Taillon · slot 3
 15.3%Valinor 15.3%market -0.5pp
P 13.8
F 13.3
V 15.3
2.0pp 0.990xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 530 avg 3 books
29
Taylor Ward BAL
Lineup pending
BAL vs MINDean Kremer · slot 4
 17.2%Valinor 17.4%market -0.8pp
P 14.0
F 13.4
V 17.2
3.8pp 1.006xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 455 avg 3 books
30
Wilyer Abreu BOS
IN
BOS vs TORJameson Taillon · slot 4
 15.0%Valinor 15.7%market -1.3pp
P 14.0
F 13.4
V 15.0
1.5pp 0.990xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 515 avg 3 books
31
Tyler O'Neill BAL
IN
BAL vs MINDean Kremer · slot 3
 16.2%Valinor 17.1%market -1.5pp
P 12.5
F 13.3
V 16.2
3.7pp 1.006xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 465 avg 3 books
32
Josh Bell MIN
IN
MIN vs BALTrevor Rogers · slot 4
 13.8%Valinor 14.9%market -1.6pp
P 12.9
F 13.2
V 13.8
0.9pp 1.006xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 550 avg 3 books
33
Willy Adames SF
IN
SF vs HOUHayden Wesneski · slot 4
 15.6%Valinor 17.1%market -2.1pp
P 14.2
F 13.3
V 15.6
2.3pp 0.989xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 465 avg 3 books
34
Salvador Perez KC
IN
KC vs LADTarik Skubal · slot 4
 16.7%Valinor 18.2%market -2.1pp
P 13.3
F 13.3
V 16.7
3.4pp 0.980xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 430 avg 3 books
35
Bobby Witt Jr. KC
IN
KC vs LADTarik Skubal · slot 1
 16.0%Valinor 17.7%market -2.3pp
P 13.6
F 13.3
V 16.0
2.7pp 0.980xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 445 avg 3 books
36
Royce Lewis MIN
IN
MIN vs BALTrevor Rogers · slot 5
 14.0%Valinor 16.2%market -2.9pp
P 11.7
F 13.2
V 14.0
2.2pp 1.006xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 495 avg 3 books
37
Jorge Polanco NYM
IN
NYM vs ATLBryce Elder · slot 4
 13.7%Valinor 16.5%market -3.4pp
P 13.8
F 13.4
V 13.7
0.4pp 1.073xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 485 avg 3 books
38
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR
IN
TOR vs BOSSonny Gray · slot 2
 13.1%Valinor 16.4%market -3.9pp
P 13.1
F 13.4
V 13.1
0.3pp 0.990xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 490 avg 3 books
39
Zach Neto LAA
IN
LAA vs TEXMacKenzie Gore · slot 1
 13.8%Valinor 17.2%market -4.0pp
P 14.1
F 13.4
V 13.8
0.7pp 0.993xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 460 avg 3 books
40
Andy Pages LAD
IN
LAD vs KCNoah Cameron · slot 7
 9.4%Valinor 13.4%market -4.5pp
P 13.1
F 13.2
V 9.4
3.7pp 0.980xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 620 avg 3 books
41
Christian Yelich MIL
IN
MIL vs SDCasey Mize · slot 2
 12.7%Valinor 16.7%market -4.5pp
P 14.4
F 13.4
V 12.7
1.7pp 0.976xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 480 avg 3 books
42
Rafael Devers SF
IN
SF vs HOUHayden Wesneski · slot 2
 16.4%Valinor 20.3%market -4.6pp
P 14.3
F 13.4
V 16.4
3.1pp 0.989xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 375 avg 3 books
43
George Springer TOR
IN
TOR vs BOSSonny Gray · slot 1
 13.1%Valinor 17.1%market -4.6pp
P 13.5
F 13.3
V 13.1
0.5pp 0.990xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 465 avg 3 books
44
Hunter Goodman COL
IN
COL vs AZMichael Soroka · slot 2
 13.3%Valinor 17.4%market -4.7pp
P 13.6
F 13.4
V 13.3
0.4pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 455 avg 3 books
45
Teoscar Hernández LAD
IN
LAD vs KCNoah Cameron · slot 4
 14.4%Valinor 18.6%market -4.8pp
P 13.2
F 13.2
V 14.4
1.2pp 0.980xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 420 avg 3 books
46
Daulton Varsho TOR
IN
TOR vs BOSSonny Gray · slot 4
 12.9%Valinor 17.1%market -4.8pp
P 12.6
F 13.2
V 12.9
0.6pp 0.990xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 465 avg 3 books
47
Kyle Tucker LAD
Lineup pending
LAD vs KCNoah Cameron · slot 3
 13.2%Valinor 17.7%market -5.1pp
P 13.3
F 13.2
V 13.2
0.1pp 0.980xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 445 avg 3 books
48
Bryce Harper PHI
IN
PHI vs STLHunter Dobbins · slot 2
 14.5%Valinor 19.1%market -5.3pp
P 14.2
F 13.4
V 14.5
1.1pp 1.038xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 405 avg 3 books
49
Pete Alonso BAL
IN
BAL vs MINDean Kremer · slot 2
 17.9%Valinor 22.4%market -5.3pp
P 13.6
F 13.2
V 17.9
4.7pp 1.006xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 330 avg 3 books
50
Francisco Lindor NYM
IN
NYM vs ATLBryce Elder · slot 2
 14.0%Valinor 18.9%market -5.6pp
P 14.4
F 13.4
V 14.0
1.1pp 1.073xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 410 avg 3 books
51
Mike Trout LAA
IN
LAA vs TEXMacKenzie Gore · slot 2
 13.5%Valinor 19.3%market -6.5pp
P 13.9
F 13.4
V 13.5
0.5pp 0.993xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 400 avg 3 books
52
Jo Adell LAA
Lineup pending
LAA vs TEXMacKenzie Gore · slot 4
 13.4%Valinor 20.3%market -7.6pp
P 13.4
F 13.4
V 13.4
0.1pp 0.993xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 375 avg 3 books
53
Junior Caminero TB
IN
TB vs ATHJacob Lopez · slot 4
 13.6%Valinor 22.2%market -9.4pp
P 13.9
F 13.4
V 13.6
0.5pp 1.077xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 335 avg 3 books

Data context

0 sample flags
Status2519roster/transaction rows
Lineups180confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.