Mithrandir Metrics
Fangorn lane 2026-08-10 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
53
Matched
207
Lineups
180
HR BOARD 2026-08-10 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research
Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board · largest Fangorn gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01
Jung Hoo Lee SF
IN
SF vs HOUHayden Wesneski · slot 7
 13.0%Fangorn 7.7%market +5.3pp
P 11.2
F 13.0
V 9.6
3.4pp 0.989xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
02
Nathan Lukes TOR
IN
TOR vs BOSSonny Gray · slot 6
 13.4%Fangorn 9.1%market +4.3pp
P 12.7
F 13.4
V 8.6
4.8pp 0.990xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 960 avg 3 books
03
Willi Castro COL
IN
COL vs AZMichael Soroka · slot 1
 13.2%Fangorn 9.8%market +3.4pp
P 12.2
F 13.2
V 10.8
2.4pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 885 avg 3 books
04
Brice Turang MIL
IN
MIL vs SDCasey Mize · slot 1
 13.4%Fangorn 10.0%market +3.4pp
P 12.8
F 13.4
V 10.0
3.3pp 0.976xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 865 avg 3 books
05
Alec Bohm PHI
Lineup pending
PHI vs STLHunter Dobbins · slot 5
 13.2%Fangorn 10.7%market +2.5pp
P 11.7
F 13.2
V 10.4
2.8pp 1.038xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 805 avg 3 books
06
Brandon Marsh PHI
IN
PHI vs STLHunter Dobbins · slot 6
 13.4%Fangorn 11.0%market +2.4pp
P 12.4
F 13.4
V 10.0
3.4pp 1.038xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 780 avg 3 books
07
Edouard Julien COL
Lineup pending
COL vs AZMichael Soroka · slot 6
 13.2%Fangorn 10.9%market +2.4pp
P 12.2
F 13.2
V 10.3
2.9pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 790 avg 3 books
08
Bo Bichette NYM
IN
NYM vs ATLBryce Elder · slot 3
 13.4%Fangorn 11.7%market +1.7pp
P 14.1
F 13.4
V 9.7
4.4pp 1.073xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 725 avg 3 books
09
Jarren Duran BOS
IN
BOS vs TORJameson Taillon · slot 1
 13.4%Fangorn 11.8%market +1.6pp
P 14.1
F 13.4
V 11.9
2.2pp 0.990xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 715 avg 3 books
10
Jesús Sánchez TOR
IN
TOR vs BOSSonny Gray · slot 5
 13.4%Fangorn 12.3%market +1.1pp
P 12.5
F 13.4
V 11.2
2.2pp 0.990xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 685 avg 3 books
11
Ryan Jeffers MIN
IN
MIN vs BALTrevor Rogers · slot 6
 13.2%Fangorn 12.4%market +0.8pp
P 11.8
F 13.2
V 11.5
1.8pp 1.006xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 675 avg 3 books
12
William Contreras MIL
IN
MIL vs SDCasey Mize · slot 3
 13.3%Fangorn 12.5%market +0.8pp
P 12.7
F 13.3
V 11.6
1.7pp 0.976xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
13
Ezequiel Tovar COL
Lineup pending
COL vs AZMichael Soroka · slot 4
 13.2%Fangorn 12.5%market +0.7pp
P 13.1
F 13.2
V 12.2
1.0pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
14
Marcus Semien NYM
IN
NYM vs ATLBryce Elder · slot 5
 13.2%Fangorn 13.8%market -0.6pp
P 12.6
F 13.2
V 12.8
0.6pp 1.073xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 625 avg 3 books
15
Tyler Soderstrom ATH
IN
ATH vs TBFreddy Peralta · slot 5
 13.4%Fangorn 14.7%market -1.3pp
P 14.8
F 13.4
V 14.3
1.4pp 1.077xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 580 avg 3 books
16
Trea Turner PHI
Lineup pending
PHI vs STLHunter Dobbins · slot 1
 13.3%Fangorn 14.8%market -1.5pp
P 13.6
F 13.3
V 13.7
0.4pp 1.038xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 575 avg 3 books
17
Yandy Díaz TB
IN
TB vs ATHJacob Lopez · slot 2
 13.7%Fangorn 15.5%market -1.8pp
P 14.7
F 13.7
V 13.9
1.0pp 1.077xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 545 avg 3 books
18
Lawrence Butler ATH
IN
ATH vs TBFreddy Peralta · slot 4
 13.4%Fangorn 15.6%market -2.2pp
P 14.2
F 13.4
V 14.3
0.9pp 1.077xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 540 avg 3 books
19
Freddie Freeman LAD
IN
LAD vs KCNoah Cameron · slot 2
 13.3%Fangorn 16.4%market -3.1pp
P 13.9
F 13.3
V 13.3
0.6pp 0.980xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 510 avg 3 books
20
Mookie Betts LAD
IN
LAD vs KCNoah Cameron · slot 5
 13.4%Fangorn 16.7%market -3.3pp
P 13.9
F 13.4
V 14.2
0.8pp 0.980xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 500 avg 3 books
21
Jacob Wilson ATH
IN
ATH vs TBFreddy Peralta · slot 6
 4.4%Fangorn 9.2%market -4.8pp
P 11.2
F 4.4
V 10.6
6.8pp 1.077xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 985 avg 3 books
22
Gunnar Henderson BAL
IN
BAL vs MINDean Kremer · slot 1
 13.2%Fangorn 18.4%market -5.1pp
P 13.6
F 13.2
V 17.6
4.4pp 1.006xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
23
Luis Arraez SF
IN
SF vs HOUHayden Wesneski · slot 1
 13.2%Fangorn 7.7%market +5.5pp
P 10.8
F 13.2
V 11.8
2.4pp 0.989xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
24
Luke Keaschall MIN
IN
MIN vs BALTrevor Rogers · slot 1
 11.6%Fangorn 10.9%market +0.7pp
P 11.2
F 11.6
V 13.1
1.8pp 1.006xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 785 avg 3 books
25
Andy Pages LAD
IN
LAD vs KCNoah Cameron · slot 7
 13.2%Fangorn 13.9%market -0.7pp
P 13.1
F 13.2
V 9.4
3.7pp 0.980xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 620 avg 3 books
26
Lane Thomas KC
Lineup pending
KC vs LADTarik Skubal · slot 5
 13.0%Fangorn 13.9%market -0.9pp
P 11.3
F 13.0
V 14.5
3.2pp 0.980xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 620 avg 3 books
27
Josh Bell MIN
IN
MIN vs BALTrevor Rogers · slot 4
 13.2%Fangorn 15.4%market -2.2pp
P 12.9
F 13.2
V 13.8
0.9pp 1.006xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 550 avg 3 books
28
Willson Contreras BOS
IN
BOS vs TORJameson Taillon · slot 3
 13.3%Fangorn 15.9%market -2.6pp
P 13.8
F 13.3
V 15.3
2.0pp 0.990xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 530 avg 3 books
29
Wilyer Abreu BOS
IN
BOS vs TORJameson Taillon · slot 4
 13.4%Fangorn 16.3%market -2.8pp
P 14.0
F 13.4
V 15.0
1.5pp 0.990xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 515 avg 3 books
30
Royce Lewis MIN
IN
MIN vs BALTrevor Rogers · slot 5
 13.2%Fangorn 16.7%market -3.5pp
P 11.7
F 13.2
V 14.0
2.2pp 1.006xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 500 avg 3 books
31
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR
IN
TOR vs BOSSonny Gray · slot 2
 13.4%Fangorn 17.0%market -3.6pp
P 13.1
F 13.4
V 13.1
0.3pp 0.990xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
32
Jorge Polanco NYM
IN
NYM vs ATLBryce Elder · slot 4
 13.4%Fangorn 17.1%market -3.7pp
P 13.8
F 13.4
V 13.7
0.4pp 1.073xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 485 avg 3 books
33
Christian Yelich MIL
IN
MIL vs SDCasey Mize · slot 2
 13.4%Fangorn 17.2%market -3.8pp
P 14.4
F 13.4
V 12.7
1.7pp 0.976xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 480 avg 3 books
34
Zach Neto LAA
IN
LAA vs TEXMacKenzie Gore · slot 1
 13.4%Fangorn 17.7%market -4.3pp
P 14.1
F 13.4
V 13.8
0.7pp 0.993xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
35
Daulton Varsho TOR
IN
TOR vs BOSSonny Gray · slot 4
 13.2%Fangorn 17.5%market -4.3pp
P 12.6
F 13.2
V 12.9
0.6pp 0.990xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 470 avg 3 books
36
Willy Adames SF
IN
SF vs HOUHayden Wesneski · slot 4
 13.3%Fangorn 17.7%market -4.4pp
P 14.2
F 13.3
V 15.6
2.3pp 0.989xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
37
Tyler O'Neill BAL
IN
BAL vs MINDean Kremer · slot 3
 13.3%Fangorn 17.7%market -4.4pp
P 12.5
F 13.3
V 16.2
3.7pp 1.006xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
38
George Springer TOR
IN
TOR vs BOSSonny Gray · slot 1
 13.3%Fangorn 17.7%market -4.4pp
P 13.5
F 13.3
V 13.1
0.5pp 0.990xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
39
Hunter Goodman COL
IN
COL vs AZMichael Soroka · slot 2
 13.4%Fangorn 18.0%market -4.6pp
P 13.6
F 13.4
V 13.3
0.4pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 455 avg 3 books
40
Taylor Ward BAL
Lineup pending
BAL vs MINDean Kremer · slot 4
 13.4%Fangorn 18.0%market -4.6pp
P 14.0
F 13.4
V 17.2
3.8pp 1.006xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 455 avg 3 books
41
Bobby Witt Jr. KC
IN
KC vs LADTarik Skubal · slot 1
 13.3%Fangorn 18.4%market -5.1pp
P 13.6
F 13.3
V 16.0
2.7pp 0.980xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
42
Kyle Tucker LAD
Lineup pending
LAD vs KCNoah Cameron · slot 3
 13.2%Fangorn 18.4%market -5.1pp
P 13.3
F 13.2
V 13.2
0.1pp 0.980xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
43
Salvador Perez KC
IN
KC vs LADTarik Skubal · slot 4
 13.3%Fangorn 18.7%market -5.4pp
P 13.3
F 13.3
V 16.7
3.4pp 0.980xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 435 avg 3 books
44
Teoscar Hernández LAD
IN
LAD vs KCNoah Cameron · slot 4
 13.2%Fangorn 19.1%market -5.8pp
P 13.2
F 13.2
V 14.4
1.2pp 0.980xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 425 avg 3 books
45
Francisco Lindor NYM
IN
NYM vs ATLBryce Elder · slot 2
 13.4%Fangorn 19.4%market -6.0pp
P 14.4
F 13.4
V 14.0
1.1pp 1.073xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 415 avg 3 books
46
Bryce Harper PHI
IN
PHI vs STLHunter Dobbins · slot 2
 13.4%Fangorn 19.6%market -6.2pp
P 14.2
F 13.4
V 14.5
1.1pp 1.038xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 410 avg 3 books
47
Mike Trout LAA
IN
LAA vs TEXMacKenzie Gore · slot 2
 13.4%Fangorn 19.8%market -6.4pp
P 13.9
F 13.4
V 13.5
0.5pp 0.993xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 405 avg 3 books
48
Jo Adell LAA
Lineup pending
LAA vs TEXMacKenzie Gore · slot 4
 13.4%Fangorn 20.8%market -7.4pp
P 13.4
F 13.4
V 13.4
0.1pp 0.993xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 380 avg 3 books
49
Rafael Devers SF
IN
SF vs HOUHayden Wesneski · slot 2
 13.4%Fangorn 20.8%market -7.4pp
P 14.3
F 13.4
V 16.4
3.1pp 0.989xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 380 avg 3 books
50
Junior Caminero TB
IN
TB vs ATHJacob Lopez · slot 4
 13.4%Fangorn 22.7%market -9.3pp
P 13.9
F 13.4
V 13.6
0.5pp 1.077xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 340 avg 3 books
51
Pete Alonso BAL
IN
BAL vs MINDean Kremer · slot 2
 13.2%Fangorn 23.0%market -9.8pp
P 13.6
F 13.2
V 17.9
4.7pp 1.006xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 335 avg 3 books
52
Kyle Schwarber PHI
IN
PHI vs STLHunter Dobbins · slot 3
 13.4%Fangorn 27.0%market -13.6pp
P 13.7
F 13.4
V 14.4
1.0pp 1.038xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 270 avg 3 books
53
Shohei Ohtani LAD
IN
LAD vs KCNoah Cameron · slot 1
 13.4%Fangorn 29.0%market -15.6pp
P 13.2
F 13.4
V 17.3
4.1pp 0.980xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 245 avg 3 books

Data context

0 sample flags
Status2519roster/transaction rows
Lineups180confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.