Mithrandir Metrics
Palantir lane 2026-08-16 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
74
Matched
279
Lineups
270
HR BOARD 2026-08-16 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research
Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board · largest Palantir gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01
Geraldo Perdomo AZ
IN
AZ vs ATLBryce Elder · slot 3
 14.8%Palantir 9.3%market +5.4pp
P 14.8
F 13.4
V 8.9
5.9pp 1.131xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 935 avg 3 books
02
Bo Bichette NYM
IN
NYM vs WSHJake Irvin · slot 3
 15.2%Palantir 11.7%market +3.5pp
P 15.2
F 13.4
V 12.1
3.1pp 1.039xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 725 avg 3 books
03
Jakob Marsee MIA
IN
MIA vs CINNick Lodolo · slot 2
 12.7%Palantir 9.4%market +3.3pp
P 12.7
F 13.0
V 14.3
1.6pp 1.135xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 930 avg 3 books
04
Zach McKinstry DET
IN
DET vs CWSSean Burke · slot 1
 11.5%Palantir 8.7%market +2.8pp
P 11.5
F 12.8
V 12.2
1.4pp 1.073xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 1010 avg 3 books
05
Colt Keith DET
IN
DET vs CWSSean Burke · slot 6
 12.3%Palantir 10.5%market +1.8pp
P 12.3
F 12.8
V 10.8
2.0pp 1.073xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 820 avg 3 books
06
Tj Friedl CIN
IN
CIN vs MIAEury Pérez · slot 2
 14.5%Palantir 12.7%market +1.7pp
P 14.5
F 13.3
V 13.9
1.1pp 1.135xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Strong Damageform FanDuel 655 avg 3 books
07
Jeremy Peña HOU
IN
HOU vs SEABryan Woo · slot 1
 12.9%Palantir 11.2%market +1.7pp
P 12.9
F 13.3
V 12.7
0.6pp 1.082xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 765 avg 3 books
08
Jake Cronenworth SD
IN
SD vs CLETanner Bibee · slot 7
 11.1%Palantir 9.6%market +1.5pp
P 11.1
F 12.7
V 10.3
2.4pp 1.054xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 905 avg 3 books
09
Brendan Donovan SEA
IN
SEA vs HOUHunter Brown · slot 6
 11.2%Palantir 9.8%market +1.4pp
P 11.2
F 13.1
V 10.9
2.2pp 1.082xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 890 avg 3 books
10
Wyatt Langford TEX
IN
TEX vs ATHJacob Lopez · slot 1
 16.1%Palantir 14.9%market +1.2pp
P 16.1
F 13.4
V 14.9
2.7pp 1.113xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 545 avg 3 books
11
Steven Kwan CLE
IN
CLE vs SDCasey Mize · slot 2
 9.8%Palantir 8.7%market +1.1pp
P 9.8
F 12.7
V 11.2
2.9pp 1.054xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1010 avg 3 books
12
Elly De La Cruz CIN
IN
CIN vs MIAEury Pérez · slot 1
 16.0%Palantir 15.0%market +1.0pp
P 16.0
F 13.7
V 16.1
2.4pp 1.135xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 540 avg 3 books
13
Brandon Marsh PHI
IN
PHI vs MINDean Kremer · slot 6
 11.9%Palantir 11.0%market +0.9pp
P 11.9
F 13.3
V 12.3
1.4pp 1.039xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 780 avg 3 books
14
Mike Yastrzemski ATL
IN
ATL vs AZMichael Soroka · slot 6
 14.1%Palantir 13.5%market +0.6pp
P 14.1
F 13.4
V 12.0
2.0pp 1.131xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 615 avg 3 books
15
Adley Rutschman BAL
IN
BAL vs TBFreddy Peralta · slot 5
 12.4%Palantir 11.9%market +0.5pp
P 12.4
F 12.8
V 15.4
3.0pp 1.095xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform FanDuel 710 avg 3 books
16
Alec Bohm PHI
IN
PHI vs MINDean Kremer · slot 5
 11.0%Palantir 10.7%market +0.3pp
P 11.0
F 12.8
V 14.1
3.1pp 1.039xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 805 avg 3 books
17
Ozzie Albies ATL
IN
ATL vs AZMichael Soroka · slot 5
 13.7%Palantir 14.1%market -0.4pp
P 13.7
F 13.1
V 17.0
3.9pp 1.131xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 610 avg 3 books
18
Heriberto Hernández MIA
IN
MIA vs CINNick Lodolo · slot 6
 12.1%Palantir 12.5%market -0.4pp
P 12.1
F 12.7
V 14.1
2.0pp 1.135xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 700 avg 3 books
19
Randy Arozarena SEA
IN
SEA vs HOUHunter Brown · slot 5
 14.0%Palantir 14.5%market -0.4pp
P 14.0
F 13.3
V 14.5
1.2pp 1.082xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 590 avg 3 books
20
Alec Burleson STL
IN
STL vs CHCEdward Cabrera · slot 3
 13.3%Palantir 13.8%market -0.4pp
P 13.3
F 13.4
V 13.8
0.5pp 0.978xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 625 avg 3 books
21
Agustín Ramírez MIA
IN
MIA vs CINNick Lodolo · slot 4
 14.8%Palantir 15.3%market -0.5pp
P 14.8
F 13.4
V 16.2
2.8pp 1.135xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 555 avg 3 books
22
Yandy Díaz TB
IN
TB vs BALTrevor Rogers · slot 2
 14.8%Palantir 15.5%market -0.7pp
P 14.8
F 14.7
V 15.6
0.9pp 1.095xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 545 avg 3 books
23
Jj Bleday CIN
IN
CIN vs MIAEury Pérez · slot 6
 12.8%Palantir 13.4%market -0.7pp
P 12.8
F 12.3
V 13.1
0.8pp 1.135xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 645 avg 3 books
24
Tyler Stephenson CIN
Lineup pending
CIN vs MIAEury Pérez · slot 5
 12.0%Palantir 12.8%market -0.8pp
P 12.0
F 13.0
V 15.5
3.6pp 1.135xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 680 avg 3 books
25
Trea Turner PHI
Lineup pending
PHI vs MINDean Kremer · slot 1
 13.9%Palantir 14.8%market -0.9pp
P 13.9
F 13.1
V 18.1
5.0pp 1.039xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 575 avg 3 books
26
Brandon Nimmo TEX
IN
TEX vs ATHJacob Lopez · slot 3
 14.7%Palantir 15.6%market -1.0pp
P 14.7
F 13.4
V 16.2
2.7pp 1.113xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 540 avg 3 books
27
Jose Altuve HOU
IN
HOU vs SEABryan Woo · slot 3
 14.7%Palantir 15.8%market -1.1pp
P 14.7
F 13.3
V 15.8
2.5pp 1.082xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 535 avg 3 books
28
William Contreras MIL
IN
MIL vs LADTarik Skubal · slot 3
 12.2%Palantir 13.5%market -1.3pp
P 12.2
F 13.0
V 13.9
1.7pp 1.017xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 640 avg 3 books
29
Dansby Swanson CHC
IN
CHC vs STLHunter Dobbins · slot 6
 12.3%Palantir 13.6%market -1.4pp
P 12.3
F 13.0
V 9.6
3.4pp 0.978xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 635 avg 3 books
30
Marcus Semien NYM
Lineup pending
NYM vs WSHJake Irvin · slot 5
 12.1%Palantir 13.8%market -1.7pp
P 12.1
F 12.7
V 14.5
2.4pp 1.039xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 625 avg 3 books
31
Nick Castellanos SD
Lineup pending
SD vs CLETanner Bibee · slot 4
 12.9%Palantir 14.9%market -2.0pp
P 12.9
F 12.8
V 13.9
1.1pp 1.054xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 570 avg 3 books
32
Ian Happ CHC
IN
CHC vs STLHunter Dobbins · slot 4
 13.4%Palantir 15.5%market -2.1pp
P 13.4
F 13.1
V 13.7
0.6pp 0.978xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 545 avg 3 books
33
Corbin Carroll AZ
IN
AZ vs ATLBryce Elder · slot 1
 16.1%Palantir 18.4%market -2.3pp
P 16.1
F 13.4
V 12.8
3.3pp 1.131xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
34
Jackson Merrill SD
IN
SD vs CLETanner Bibee · slot 3
 13.7%Palantir 16.3%market -2.5pp
P 13.7
F 12.7
V 16.8
4.1pp 1.054xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 515 avg 3 books
35
Jorge Polanco NYM
IN
NYM vs WSHJake Irvin · slot 4
 14.2%Palantir 17.1%market -2.8pp
P 14.2
F 13.4
V 16.1
2.7pp 1.039xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 485 avg 3 books
36
Josh Naylor SEA
IN
SEA vs HOUHunter Brown · slot 4
 14.0%Palantir 17.0%market -3.0pp
P 14.0
F 13.3
V 16.5
3.2pp 1.082xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
37
Drake Baldwin ATL
IN
ATL vs AZMichael Soroka · slot 3
 12.6%Palantir 16.0%market -3.4pp
P 12.6
F 13.4
V 15.5
2.9pp 1.131xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 525 avg 3 books
38
Francisco Lindor NYM
IN
NYM vs WSHJake Irvin · slot 2
 15.4%Palantir 19.4%market -4.0pp
P 15.4
F 13.4
V 16.6
3.1pp 1.039xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 415 avg 3 books
39
Gunnar Henderson BAL
IN
BAL vs TBFreddy Peralta · slot 1
 14.3%Palantir 18.4%market -4.1pp
P 14.3
F 13.0
V 17.7
4.6pp 1.095xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
40
Austin Riley ATL
IN
ATL vs AZMichael Soroka · slot 4
 12.4%Palantir 17.0%market -4.6pp
P 12.4
F 12.8
V 16.3
4.0pp 1.131xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
41
Iván Herrera STL
IN
STL vs CHCEdward Cabrera · slot 2
 14.6%Palantir 12.5%market +2.1pp
P 14.6
F 13.4
V 12.8
1.8pp 0.978xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
42
Xavier Edwards MIA
IN
MIA vs CINNick Lodolo · slot 1
 8.6%Palantir 7.7%market +0.9pp
P 8.6
F 12.3
V 13.1
4.5pp 1.135xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
43
Brice Turang MIL
Lineup pending
MIL vs LADTarik Skubal · slot 1
 9.4%Palantir 8.7%market +0.7pp
P 9.4
F 12.7
V 10.8
3.3pp 1.017xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1010 avg 3 books
44
Nico Hoerner CHC
IN
CHC vs STLHunter Dobbins · slot 1
 6.8%Palantir 8.0%market -1.2pp
P 6.8
F 11.4
V 13.2
6.4pp 0.978xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
45
Spencer Torkelson DET
IN
DET vs CWSSean Burke · slot 5
 14.6%Palantir 17.0%market -2.3pp
P 14.6
F 13.4
V 17.7
4.2pp 1.073xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
46
Christian Yelich MIL
Lineup pending
MIL vs LADTarik Skubal · slot 2
 13.9%Palantir 16.3%market -2.4pp
P 13.9
F 13.4
V 14.7
1.3pp 1.017xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 515 avg 3 books
47
Zach Neto LAA
IN
LAA vs KCNoah Cameron · slot 1
 14.8%Palantir 17.7%market -2.9pp
P 14.8
F 13.4
V 15.2
1.7pp 1.005xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
48
Taylor Ward BAL
Lineup pending
BAL vs TBFreddy Peralta · slot 4
 15.0%Palantir 18.0%market -3.1pp
P 15.0
F 13.4
V 15.9
2.5pp 1.095xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 455 avg 3 books
49
Fernando Tatis Jr. SD
IN
SD vs CLETanner Bibee · slot 1
 14.2%Palantir 17.2%market -3.1pp
P 14.2
F 13.4
V 16.6
3.2pp 1.054xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 480 avg 3 books
50
Julio Rodríguez SEA
IN
SEA vs HOUHunter Brown · slot 1
 14.6%Palantir 18.0%market -3.5pp
P 14.6
F 13.3
V 16.4
3.1pp 1.082xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 455 avg 3 books
51
Alex Bregman CHC
IN
CHC vs STLHunter Dobbins · slot 5
 11.7%Palantir 15.3%market -3.5pp
P 11.7
F 12.8
V 13.7
2.0pp 0.978xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 555 avg 3 books
52
Isaac Paredes HOU
IN
HOU vs SEABryan Woo · slot 5
 12.1%Palantir 16.0%market -3.9pp
P 12.1
F 13.0
V 14.6
2.4pp 1.082xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 525 avg 3 books
53
George Springer TOR
IN
TOR vs NYYRyan Weathers · slot 1
 14.3%Palantir 18.4%market -4.0pp
P 14.3
F 13.3
V 12.9
1.4pp 0.934xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
54
Michael Busch CHC
Lineup pending
CHC vs STLHunter Dobbins · slot 3
 14.2%Palantir 18.7%market -4.5pp
P 14.2
F 13.4
V 14.1
0.7pp 0.978xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 435 avg 3 books
55
Christian Walker HOU
IN
HOU vs SEABryan Woo · slot 4
 13.6%Palantir 18.2%market -4.5pp
P 13.6
F 13.0
V 16.6
3.5pp 1.082xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 450 avg 3 books
56
Bryce Harper PHI
IN
PHI vs MINDean Kremer · slot 2
 15.0%Palantir 19.6%market -4.6pp
P 15.0
F 13.4
V 19.1
5.7pp 1.039xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 410 avg 3 books
57
Ronald Acuña Jr. ATL
IN
ATL vs AZMichael Soroka · slot 1
 14.6%Palantir 19.4%market -4.9pp
P 14.6
F 13.3
V 17.0
3.6pp 1.131xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 415 avg 3 books
58
Ben Rice NYY
IN
NYY vs TORDylan Cease · slot 6
 11.4%Palantir 16.3%market -4.9pp
P 11.4
F 13.1
V 12.7
1.7pp 0.934xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 515 avg 3 books
59
Manny Machado SD
IN
SD vs CLETanner Bibee · slot 2
 13.6%Palantir 18.9%market -5.3pp
P 13.6
F 13.3
V 17.1
3.7pp 1.054xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 430 avg 3 books
60
Tyler O'Neill BAL
Lineup pending
BAL vs TBFreddy Peralta · slot 3
 12.3%Palantir 17.7%market -5.4pp
P 12.3
F 13.3
V 16.1
3.7pp 1.095xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
61
Mike Trout LAA
IN
LAA vs KCNoah Cameron · slot 2
 14.3%Palantir 19.8%market -5.5pp
P 14.3
F 13.4
V 15.0
1.5pp 1.005xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 405 avg 3 books
62
José Ramírez CLE
IN
CLE vs SDCasey Mize · slot 1
 14.6%Palantir 20.4%market -5.8pp
P 14.6
F 13.4
V 16.2
2.8pp 1.054xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 390 avg 3 books
63
Ketel Marte AZ
IN
AZ vs ATLBryce Elder · slot 2
 15.0%Palantir 21.1%market -6.0pp
P 15.0
F 13.4
V 13.2
1.9pp 1.131xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 375 avg 3 books
64
Matt Olson ATL
IN
ATL vs AZMichael Soroka · slot 2
 15.3%Palantir 21.7%market -6.4pp
P 15.3
F 13.4
V 17.0
3.6pp 1.131xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 360 avg 3 books
65
Jazz Chisholm Jr. NYY
Lineup pending
NYY vs TORDylan Cease · slot 5
 12.5%Palantir 19.2%market -6.8pp
P 12.5
F 13.0
V 15.7
3.2pp 0.934xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
66
Jo Adell LAA
IN
LAA vs KCNoah Cameron · slot 4
 13.4%Palantir 20.8%market -7.4pp
P 13.4
F 13.4
V 14.2
0.7pp 1.005xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 380 avg 3 books
67
Yordan Alvarez HOU
IN
HOU vs SEABryan Woo · slot 2
 13.4%Palantir 20.8%market -7.5pp
P 13.4
F 13.3
V 17.3
4.0pp 1.082xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 380 avg 3 books
68
Eugenio Suárez CIN
IN
CIN vs MIAEury Pérez · slot 3
 13.7%Palantir 21.7%market -8.0pp
P 13.7
F 13.0
V 17.2
4.1pp 1.135xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 360 avg 3 books
69
Corey Seager TEX
Lineup pending
TEX vs ATHJacob Lopez · slot 2
 13.5%Palantir 21.7%market -8.3pp
P 13.5
F 13.3
V 16.4
3.0pp 1.113xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 360 avg 3 books
70
Jake Burger TEX
IN
TEX vs ATHJacob Lopez · slot 4
 11.8%Palantir 20.4%market -8.6pp
P 11.8
F 12.8
V 16.2
4.4pp 1.113xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 390 avg 3 books
71
Pete Alonso BAL
IN
BAL vs TBFreddy Peralta · slot 2
 14.3%Palantir 23.0%market -8.7pp
P 14.3
F 13.0
V 18.4
5.3pp 1.095xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 335 avg 3 books
72
Junior Caminero TB
IN
TB vs BALTrevor Rogers · slot 4
 13.6%Palantir 22.7%market -9.1pp
P 13.6
F 13.4
V 15.3
1.9pp 1.095xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 340 avg 3 books
73
Cal Raleigh SEA
IN
SEA vs HOUHunter Brown · slot 3
 14.6%Palantir 26.3%market -11.7pp
P 14.6
F 12.7
V 16.0
3.3pp 1.082xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 280 avg 3 books
74
Kyle Schwarber PHI
IN
PHI vs MINDean Kremer · slot 3
 14.1%Palantir 27.0%market -12.9pp
P 14.1
F 13.3
V 17.9
4.6pp 1.039xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 270 avg 3 books

Data context

0 sample flags
Status2497roster/transaction rows
Lineups270confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.