Mithrandir Metrics
Valinor lane 2026-08-16 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
74
Matched
279
Lineups
270
HR BOARD 2026-08-16 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board · largest Valinor gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01 IN
MIA vs CINNick Lodolo · slot 2
14.3%Valinor 9.4%market +4.5pp
P 12.7
F 13.0
V 14.3
1.6pp 1.135xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 930 avg 3 books
02 Lineup pending
PHI vs MINDean Kremer · slot 1
18.1%Valinor 14.1%market +3.3pp
P 13.9
F 13.1
V 18.1
5.0pp 1.039xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 580 avg 3 books
03 IN
DET vs CWSSean Burke · slot 1
12.2%Valinor 8.7%market +3.2pp
P 11.5
F 12.8
V 12.2
1.4pp 1.073xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 1010 avg 3 books
04 IN
BAL vs TBFreddy Peralta · slot 5
15.4%Valinor 11.9%market +3.0pp
P 12.4
F 12.8
V 15.4
3.0pp 1.095xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform FanDuel 710 avg 3 books
05
Alec Bohm PHI
IN
PHI vs MINDean Kremer · slot 5
14.1%Valinor 10.7%market +3.0pp
P 11.0
F 12.8
V 14.1
3.1pp 1.039xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 805 avg 3 books
06 IN
ATL vs AZMichael Soroka · slot 5
17.0%Valinor 13.5%market +3.0pp
P 13.7
F 13.1
V 17.0
3.9pp 1.131xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 615 avg 3 books
07 Lineup pending
CIN vs MIAEury Pérez · slot 5
15.5%Valinor 12.3%market +2.8pp
P 12.0
F 13.0
V 15.5
3.6pp 1.135xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 685 avg 3 books
08 IN
CLE vs SDCasey Mize · slot 2
11.2%Valinor 8.7%market +2.2pp
P 9.8
F 12.7
V 11.2
2.9pp 1.054xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1010 avg 3 books
09 IN
MIA vs CINNick Lodolo · slot 6
14.1%Valinor 12.0%market +1.7pp
P 12.1
F 12.7
V 14.1
2.0pp 1.135xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 705 avg 3 books
10 IN
HOU vs SEABryan Woo · slot 1
12.7%Valinor 11.2%market +1.1pp
P 12.9
F 13.3
V 12.7
0.6pp 1.082xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 765 avg 3 books
11 IN
MIA vs CINNick Lodolo · slot 4
16.2%Valinor 14.6%market +1.1pp
P 14.8
F 13.4
V 16.2
2.8pp 1.135xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 560 avg 3 books
12 IN
PHI vs MINDean Kremer · slot 6
12.3%Valinor 11.0%market +0.9pp
P 11.9
F 13.3
V 12.3
1.4pp 1.039xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 780 avg 3 books
13 IN
SEA vs HOUHunter Brown · slot 6
10.9%Valinor 9.8%market +0.8pp
P 11.2
F 13.1
V 10.9
2.2pp 1.082xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 890 avg 3 books
14 Lineup pending
NYM vs WSHJake Irvin · slot 5
14.5%Valinor 13.2%market +0.8pp
P 12.1
F 12.7
V 14.5
2.4pp 1.039xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 630 avg 3 books
15 IN
SD vs CLETanner Bibee · slot 3
16.8%Valinor 15.5%market +0.7pp
P 13.7
F 12.7
V 16.8
4.1pp 1.054xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 520 avg 3 books
16
Tj Friedl CIN
IN
CIN vs MIAEury Pérez · slot 2
13.9%Valinor 12.7%market +0.7pp
P 14.5
F 13.3
V 13.9
1.1pp 1.135xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Strong Damageform FanDuel 655 avg 3 books
17 IN
TEX vs ATHJacob Lopez · slot 3
16.2%Valinor 14.9%market +0.7pp
P 14.7
F 13.4
V 16.2
2.7pp 1.113xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 545 avg 3 books
18 IN
MIL vs LADTarik Skubal · slot 3
13.9%Valinor 12.9%market +0.5pp
P 12.2
F 13.0
V 13.9
1.7pp 1.017xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 645 avg 3 books
19 IN
CIN vs MIAEury Pérez · slot 1
16.1%Valinor 15.0%market +0.4pp
P 16.0
F 13.7
V 16.1
2.4pp 1.135xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 540 avg 3 books
20 IN
SD vs CLETanner Bibee · slot 7
10.3%Valinor 9.6%market +0.4pp
P 11.1
F 12.7
V 10.3
2.4pp 1.054xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 905 avg 3 books
21 IN
TB vs BALTrevor Rogers · slot 2
15.6%Valinor 14.8%market +0.2pp
P 14.8
F 14.7
V 15.6
0.9pp 1.095xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 550 avg 3 books
22 IN
HOU vs SEABryan Woo · slot 3
15.8%Valinor 15.0%market +0.2pp
P 14.7
F 13.3
V 15.8
2.5pp 1.082xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 540 avg 3 books
23 IN
SEA vs HOUHunter Brown · slot 5
14.5%Valinor 13.8%market +0.1pp
P 14.0
F 13.3
V 14.5
1.2pp 1.082xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 595 avg 3 books
24 IN
STL vs CHCEdward Cabrera · slot 3
13.8%Valinor 13.3%market +0.0pp
P 13.3
F 13.4
V 13.8
0.5pp 0.978xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 625 avg 3 books
25 IN
NYM vs WSHJake Irvin · slot 3
12.1%Valinor 11.7%market -0.1pp
P 15.2
F 13.4
V 12.1
3.1pp 1.039xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 720 avg 3 books
26 IN
DET vs CWSSean Burke · slot 6
10.8%Valinor 10.6%market -0.2pp
P 12.3
F 12.8
V 10.8
2.0pp 1.073xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 810 avg 3 books
27
Jj Bleday CIN
IN
CIN vs MIAEury Pérez · slot 6
13.1%Valinor 13.0%market -0.3pp
P 12.8
F 12.3
V 13.1
0.8pp 1.135xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 645 avg 3 books
28 IN
SEA vs HOUHunter Brown · slot 4
16.5%Valinor 16.4%market -0.5pp
P 14.0
F 13.3
V 16.5
3.2pp 1.082xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 490 avg 3 books
29 IN
ATL vs AZMichael Soroka · slot 4
16.3%Valinor 16.4%market -0.6pp
P 12.4
F 12.8
V 16.3
4.0pp 1.131xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 490 avg 3 books
30 IN
ATL vs AZMichael Soroka · slot 3
15.5%Valinor 15.6%market -0.6pp
P 12.6
F 13.4
V 15.5
2.9pp 1.131xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 520 avg 3 books
31 IN
BAL vs TBFreddy Peralta · slot 1
17.7%Valinor 17.7%market -0.7pp
P 14.3
F 13.0
V 17.7
4.6pp 1.095xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 445 avg 3 books
32 IN
TEX vs ATHJacob Lopez · slot 1
14.9%Valinor 15.1%market -0.7pp
P 16.1
F 13.4
V 14.9
2.7pp 1.113xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 540 avg 3 books
33 IN
NYM vs WSHJake Irvin · slot 4
16.1%Valinor 16.5%market -0.9pp
P 14.2
F 13.4
V 16.1
2.7pp 1.039xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 485 avg 3 books
34 IN
AZ vs ATLBryce Elder · slot 3
8.9%Valinor 9.5%market -1.0pp
P 14.8
F 13.4
V 8.9
5.9pp 1.131xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 915 avg 3 books
35 Lineup pending
SD vs CLETanner Bibee · slot 4
13.9%Valinor 14.4%market -1.0pp
P 12.9
F 12.8
V 13.9
1.1pp 1.054xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 570 avg 3 books
36
Ian Happ CHC
IN
CHC vs STLHunter Dobbins · slot 4
13.7%Valinor 15.0%market -1.8pp
P 13.4
F 13.1
V 13.7
0.6pp 0.978xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 545 avg 3 books
37 IN
ATL vs AZMichael Soroka · slot 6
12.0%Valinor 13.6%market -2.0pp
P 14.1
F 13.4
V 12.0
2.0pp 1.131xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 610 avg 3 books
38 IN
NYM vs WSHJake Irvin · slot 2
16.6%Valinor 18.9%market -3.0pp
P 15.4
F 13.4
V 16.6
3.1pp 1.039xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 410 avg 3 books
39 IN
CHC vs STLHunter Dobbins · slot 6
9.6%Valinor 13.1%market -4.0pp
P 12.3
F 13.0
V 9.6
3.4pp 0.978xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 635 avg 3 books
40 IN
AZ vs ATLBryce Elder · slot 1
12.8%Valinor 17.9%market -5.8pp
P 16.1
F 13.4
V 12.8
3.3pp 1.131xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 440 avg 3 books
41 IN
PHI vs MINDean Kremer · slot 3
17.9%Valinor 26.5%market -9.4pp
P 14.1
F 13.3
V 17.9
4.6pp 1.039xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 265 avg 3 books
42 IN
CHC vs STLHunter Dobbins · slot 1
13.2%Valinor 7.7%market +5.2pp
P 6.8
F 11.4
V 13.2
6.4pp 0.978xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
43 IN
MIA vs CINNick Lodolo · slot 1
13.1%Valinor 7.7%market +5.1pp
P 8.6
F 12.3
V 13.1
4.5pp 1.135xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
44 Lineup pending
MIL vs LADTarik Skubal · slot 1
10.8%Valinor 8.7%market +1.7pp
P 9.4
F 12.7
V 10.8
3.3pp 1.017xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1010 avg 3 books
45 IN
DET vs CWSSean Burke · slot 5
17.7%Valinor 16.2%market +0.9pp
P 14.6
F 13.4
V 17.7
4.2pp 1.073xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 495 avg 3 books
46 IN
STL vs CHCEdward Cabrera · slot 2
12.8%Valinor 12.5%market -0.2pp
P 14.6
F 13.4
V 12.8
1.8pp 0.978xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
47 IN
SD vs CLETanner Bibee · slot 1
16.6%Valinor 16.7%market -0.6pp
P 14.2
F 13.4
V 16.6
3.2pp 1.054xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 480 avg 3 books
48 IN
PHI vs MINDean Kremer · slot 2
19.1%Valinor 19.1%market -0.7pp
P 15.0
F 13.4
V 19.1
5.7pp 1.039xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 405 avg 3 books
49 IN
HOU vs SEABryan Woo · slot 5
14.6%Valinor 15.5%market -1.4pp
P 12.1
F 13.0
V 14.6
2.4pp 1.082xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 525 avg 3 books
50 IN
CHC vs STLHunter Dobbins · slot 5
13.7%Valinor 14.8%market -1.6pp
P 11.7
F 12.8
V 13.7
2.0pp 0.978xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 555 avg 3 books
51 Lineup pending
MIL vs LADTarik Skubal · slot 2
14.7%Valinor 15.7%market -1.6pp
P 13.9
F 13.4
V 14.7
1.3pp 1.017xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 515 avg 3 books
52 Lineup pending
BAL vs TBFreddy Peralta · slot 3
16.1%Valinor 17.1%market -1.6pp
P 12.3
F 13.3
V 16.1
3.7pp 1.095xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 465 avg 3 books
53 IN
HOU vs SEABryan Woo · slot 4
16.6%Valinor 17.7%market -1.8pp
P 13.6
F 13.0
V 16.6
3.5pp 1.082xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 445 avg 3 books
54 IN
SEA vs HOUHunter Brown · slot 1
16.4%Valinor 17.5%market -1.8pp
P 14.6
F 13.3
V 16.4
3.1pp 1.082xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 450 avg 3 books
55 IN
SD vs CLETanner Bibee · slot 2
17.1%Valinor 18.4%market -2.0pp
P 13.6
F 13.3
V 17.1
3.7pp 1.054xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 425 avg 3 books
56 Lineup pending
BAL vs TBFreddy Peralta · slot 4
15.9%Valinor 17.4%market -2.1pp
P 15.0
F 13.4
V 15.9
2.5pp 1.095xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 455 avg 3 books
57 IN
ATL vs AZMichael Soroka · slot 1
17.0%Valinor 18.8%market -2.5pp
P 14.6
F 13.3
V 17.0
3.6pp 1.131xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 415 avg 3 books
58
Zach Neto LAA
IN
LAA vs KCNoah Cameron · slot 1
15.2%Valinor 17.2%market -2.7pp
P 14.8
F 13.4
V 15.2
1.7pp 1.005xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 460 avg 3 books
59
Ben Rice NYY
IN
NYY vs TORDylan Cease · slot 6
12.7%Valinor 15.7%market -3.5pp
P 11.4
F 13.1
V 12.7
1.7pp 0.934xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 515 avg 3 books
60 Lineup pending
NYY vs TORDylan Cease · slot 5
15.7%Valinor 18.6%market -3.6pp
P 12.5
F 13.0
V 15.7
3.2pp 0.934xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 420 avg 3 books
61 IN
HOU vs SEABryan Woo · slot 2
17.3%Valinor 20.3%market -3.7pp
P 13.4
F 13.3
V 17.3
4.0pp 1.082xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 375 avg 3 books
62 IN
TEX vs ATHJacob Lopez · slot 4
16.2%Valinor 19.7%market -4.2pp
P 11.8
F 12.8
V 16.2
4.4pp 1.113xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 390 avg 3 books
63 IN
CLE vs SDCasey Mize · slot 1
16.2%Valinor 19.9%market -4.4pp
P 14.6
F 13.4
V 16.2
2.8pp 1.054xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 385 avg 3 books
64 Lineup pending
CHC vs STLHunter Dobbins · slot 3
14.1%Valinor 18.2%market -4.7pp
P 14.2
F 13.4
V 14.1
0.7pp 0.978xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 430 avg 3 books
65 IN
CIN vs MIAEury Pérez · slot 3
17.2%Valinor 21.2%market -4.8pp
P 13.7
F 13.0
V 17.2
4.1pp 1.135xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 355 avg 3 books
66 IN
BAL vs TBFreddy Peralta · slot 2
18.4%Valinor 22.4%market -4.9pp
P 14.3
F 13.0
V 18.4
5.3pp 1.095xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 330 avg 3 books
67 IN
ATL vs AZMichael Soroka · slot 2
17.0%Valinor 21.2%market -5.0pp
P 15.3
F 13.4
V 17.0
3.6pp 1.131xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 355 avg 3 books
68 IN
LAA vs KCNoah Cameron · slot 2
15.0%Valinor 19.3%market -5.0pp
P 14.3
F 13.4
V 15.0
1.5pp 1.005xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 400 avg 3 books
69 Lineup pending
TEX vs ATHJacob Lopez · slot 2
16.4%Valinor 21.2%market -5.6pp
P 13.5
F 13.3
V 16.4
3.0pp 1.113xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 355 avg 3 books
70 IN
TOR vs NYYRyan Weathers · slot 1
12.9%Valinor 17.9%market -5.7pp
P 14.3
F 13.3
V 12.9
1.4pp 0.934xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 440 avg 3 books
71
Jo Adell LAA
IN
LAA vs KCNoah Cameron · slot 4
14.2%Valinor 20.3%market -6.9pp
P 13.4
F 13.4
V 14.2
0.7pp 1.005xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 375 avg 3 books
72 IN
TB vs BALTrevor Rogers · slot 4
15.3%Valinor 22.2%market -7.7pp
P 13.6
F 13.4
V 15.3
1.9pp 1.095xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 335 avg 3 books
73 IN
AZ vs ATLBryce Elder · slot 2
13.2%Valinor 20.5%market -8.1pp
P 15.0
F 13.4
V 13.2
1.9pp 1.131xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 370 avg 3 books
74 IN
SEA vs HOUHunter Brown · slot 3
16.0%Valinor 25.8%market -10.7pp
P 14.6
F 12.7
V 16.0
3.3pp 1.082xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 275 avg 3 books

Data context

0 sample flags
Status2497roster/transaction rows
Lineups270confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.