Mithrandir Metrics
Fangorn lane 2026-08-16 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
74
Matched
279
Lineups
270
HR BOARD 2026-08-16 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board · largest Fangorn gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01 IN
DET vs CWSSean Burke · slot 1
12.8%Fangorn 8.7%market +4.1pp
P 11.5
F 12.8
V 12.2
1.4pp 1.073xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 1010 avg 3 books
02 IN
AZ vs ATLBryce Elder · slot 3
13.4%Fangorn 9.3%market +4.1pp
P 14.8
F 13.4
V 8.9
5.9pp 1.131xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 935 avg 3 books
03 IN
CLE vs SDCasey Mize · slot 2
12.7%Fangorn 8.7%market +4.0pp
P 9.8
F 12.7
V 11.2
2.9pp 1.054xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1010 avg 3 books
04 IN
MIA vs CINNick Lodolo · slot 2
13.0%Fangorn 9.4%market +3.7pp
P 12.7
F 13.0
V 14.3
1.6pp 1.135xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 930 avg 3 books
05 IN
SEA vs HOUHunter Brown · slot 6
13.1%Fangorn 9.8%market +3.3pp
P 11.2
F 13.1
V 10.9
2.2pp 1.082xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 890 avg 3 books
06 IN
SD vs CLETanner Bibee · slot 7
12.7%Fangorn 9.6%market +3.1pp
P 11.1
F 12.7
V 10.3
2.4pp 1.054xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 905 avg 3 books
07 IN
PHI vs MINDean Kremer · slot 6
13.3%Fangorn 11.0%market +2.3pp
P 11.9
F 13.3
V 12.3
1.4pp 1.039xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 780 avg 3 books
08 IN
DET vs CWSSean Burke · slot 6
12.8%Fangorn 10.5%market +2.3pp
P 12.3
F 12.8
V 10.8
2.0pp 1.073xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 820 avg 3 books
09
Alec Bohm PHI
IN
PHI vs MINDean Kremer · slot 5
12.8%Fangorn 10.7%market +2.2pp
P 11.0
F 12.8
V 14.1
3.1pp 1.039xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 805 avg 3 books
10 IN
HOU vs SEABryan Woo · slot 1
13.3%Fangorn 11.2%market +2.2pp
P 12.9
F 13.3
V 12.7
0.6pp 1.082xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 765 avg 3 books
11 IN
NYM vs WSHJake Irvin · slot 3
13.4%Fangorn 11.7%market +1.7pp
P 15.2
F 13.4
V 12.1
3.1pp 1.039xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 725 avg 3 books
12 IN
BAL vs TBFreddy Peralta · slot 5
12.8%Fangorn 11.9%market +1.0pp
P 12.4
F 12.8
V 15.4
3.0pp 1.095xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform FanDuel 710 avg 3 books
13 Lineup pending
CIN vs MIAEury Pérez · slot 5
13.0%Fangorn 12.3%market +0.7pp
P 12.0
F 13.0
V 15.5
3.6pp 1.135xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 685 avg 3 books
14 IN
MIA vs CINNick Lodolo · slot 6
12.7%Fangorn 12.0%market +0.7pp
P 12.1
F 12.7
V 14.1
2.0pp 1.135xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 705 avg 3 books
15
Tj Friedl CIN
IN
CIN vs MIAEury Pérez · slot 2
13.3%Fangorn 12.7%market +0.6pp
P 14.5
F 13.3
V 13.9
1.1pp 1.135xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Strong Damageform FanDuel 655 avg 3 books
16 IN
STL vs CHCEdward Cabrera · slot 3
13.4%Fangorn 13.8%market -0.4pp
P 13.3
F 13.4
V 13.8
0.5pp 0.978xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 625 avg 3 books
17 IN
MIL vs LADTarik Skubal · slot 3
13.0%Fangorn 13.5%market -0.5pp
P 12.2
F 13.0
V 13.9
1.7pp 1.017xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 640 avg 3 books
18 IN
CHC vs STLHunter Dobbins · slot 6
13.0%Fangorn 13.6%market -0.6pp
P 12.3
F 13.0
V 9.6
3.4pp 0.978xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 635 avg 3 books
19 IN
ATL vs AZMichael Soroka · slot 6
13.4%Fangorn 14.1%market -0.6pp
P 14.1
F 13.4
V 12.0
2.0pp 1.131xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 610 avg 3 books
20 IN
TB vs BALTrevor Rogers · slot 2
14.7%Fangorn 15.5%market -0.8pp
P 14.8
F 14.7
V 15.6
0.9pp 1.095xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 545 avg 3 books
21 IN
ATL vs AZMichael Soroka · slot 5
13.1%Fangorn 14.1%market -1.0pp
P 13.7
F 13.1
V 17.0
3.9pp 1.131xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 610 avg 3 books
22 Lineup pending
NYM vs WSHJake Irvin · slot 5
12.7%Fangorn 13.8%market -1.1pp
P 12.1
F 12.7
V 14.5
2.4pp 1.039xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 625 avg 3 books
23
Jj Bleday CIN
IN
CIN vs MIAEury Pérez · slot 6
12.3%Fangorn 13.4%market -1.1pp
P 12.8
F 12.3
V 13.1
0.8pp 1.135xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 645 avg 3 books
24 IN
SEA vs HOUHunter Brown · slot 5
13.3%Fangorn 14.5%market -1.2pp
P 14.0
F 13.3
V 14.5
1.2pp 1.082xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 590 avg 3 books
25 Lineup pending
PHI vs MINDean Kremer · slot 1
13.1%Fangorn 14.8%market -1.7pp
P 13.9
F 13.1
V 18.1
5.0pp 1.039xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 575 avg 3 books
26 IN
MIA vs CINNick Lodolo · slot 4
13.4%Fangorn 15.3%market -1.8pp
P 14.8
F 13.4
V 16.2
2.8pp 1.135xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 555 avg 3 books
27 IN
CIN vs MIAEury Pérez · slot 1
13.7%Fangorn 15.8%market -2.1pp
P 16.0
F 13.7
V 16.1
2.4pp 1.135xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 535 avg 3 books
28 Lineup pending
SD vs CLETanner Bibee · slot 4
12.8%Fangorn 14.9%market -2.1pp
P 12.9
F 12.8
V 13.9
1.1pp 1.054xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 570 avg 3 books
29 IN
TEX vs ATHJacob Lopez · slot 1
13.4%Fangorn 15.6%market -2.2pp
P 16.1
F 13.4
V 14.9
2.7pp 1.113xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 540 avg 3 books
30 IN
TEX vs ATHJacob Lopez · slot 3
13.4%Fangorn 15.6%market -2.2pp
P 14.7
F 13.4
V 16.2
2.7pp 1.113xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 540 avg 3 books
31
Ian Happ CHC
IN
CHC vs STLHunter Dobbins · slot 4
13.1%Fangorn 15.5%market -2.4pp
P 13.4
F 13.1
V 13.7
0.6pp 0.978xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 545 avg 3 books
32 IN
HOU vs SEABryan Woo · slot 3
13.3%Fangorn 15.8%market -2.4pp
P 14.7
F 13.3
V 15.8
2.5pp 1.082xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 535 avg 3 books
33 IN
ATL vs AZMichael Soroka · slot 3
13.4%Fangorn 16.0%market -2.6pp
P 12.6
F 13.4
V 15.5
2.9pp 1.131xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 525 avg 3 books
34 IN
SD vs CLETanner Bibee · slot 3
12.7%Fangorn 16.3%market -3.6pp
P 13.7
F 12.7
V 16.8
4.1pp 1.054xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 515 avg 3 books
35 IN
SEA vs HOUHunter Brown · slot 4
13.3%Fangorn 17.0%market -3.6pp
P 14.0
F 13.3
V 16.5
3.2pp 1.082xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
36 IN
NYM vs WSHJake Irvin · slot 4
13.4%Fangorn 17.1%market -3.7pp
P 14.2
F 13.4
V 16.1
2.7pp 1.039xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 485 avg 3 books
37 IN
ATL vs AZMichael Soroka · slot 4
12.8%Fangorn 17.0%market -4.1pp
P 12.4
F 12.8
V 16.3
4.0pp 1.131xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
38 IN
AZ vs ATLBryce Elder · slot 1
13.4%Fangorn 18.4%market -4.9pp
P 16.1
F 13.4
V 12.8
3.3pp 1.131xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
39 IN
BAL vs TBFreddy Peralta · slot 1
13.0%Fangorn 18.4%market -5.3pp
P 14.3
F 13.0
V 17.7
4.6pp 1.095xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
40 IN
NYM vs WSHJake Irvin · slot 2
13.4%Fangorn 19.4%market -6.0pp
P 15.4
F 13.4
V 16.6
3.1pp 1.039xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 415 avg 3 books
41 IN
MIA vs CINNick Lodolo · slot 1
12.3%Fangorn 7.7%market +4.6pp
P 8.6
F 12.3
V 13.1
4.5pp 1.135xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
42 Lineup pending
MIL vs LADTarik Skubal · slot 1
12.7%Fangorn 8.7%market +4.0pp
P 9.4
F 12.7
V 10.8
3.3pp 1.017xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1010 avg 3 books
43 IN
CHC vs STLHunter Dobbins · slot 1
11.4%Fangorn 7.7%market +3.8pp
P 6.8
F 11.4
V 13.2
6.4pp 0.978xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
44 IN
STL vs CHCEdward Cabrera · slot 2
13.4%Fangorn 12.5%market +0.9pp
P 14.6
F 13.4
V 12.8
1.8pp 0.978xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
45 IN
CHC vs STLHunter Dobbins · slot 5
12.8%Fangorn 15.3%market -2.4pp
P 11.7
F 12.8
V 13.7
2.0pp 0.978xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 555 avg 3 books
46 Lineup pending
MIL vs LADTarik Skubal · slot 2
13.4%Fangorn 16.3%market -2.8pp
P 13.9
F 13.4
V 14.7
1.3pp 1.017xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 515 avg 3 books
47 IN
HOU vs SEABryan Woo · slot 5
13.0%Fangorn 16.0%market -3.0pp
P 12.1
F 13.0
V 14.6
2.4pp 1.082xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 525 avg 3 books
48
Ben Rice NYY
IN
NYY vs TORDylan Cease · slot 6
13.1%Fangorn 16.3%market -3.2pp
P 11.4
F 13.1
V 12.7
1.7pp 0.934xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 515 avg 3 books
49 IN
DET vs CWSSean Burke · slot 5
13.4%Fangorn 17.0%market -3.5pp
P 14.6
F 13.4
V 17.7
4.2pp 1.073xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
50 IN
SD vs CLETanner Bibee · slot 1
13.4%Fangorn 17.2%market -3.8pp
P 14.2
F 13.4
V 16.6
3.2pp 1.054xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 480 avg 3 books
51
Zach Neto LAA
IN
LAA vs KCNoah Cameron · slot 1
13.4%Fangorn 17.7%market -4.3pp
P 14.8
F 13.4
V 15.2
1.7pp 1.005xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
52 Lineup pending
BAL vs TBFreddy Peralta · slot 3
13.3%Fangorn 17.7%market -4.4pp
P 12.3
F 13.3
V 16.1
3.7pp 1.095xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
53 Lineup pending
BAL vs TBFreddy Peralta · slot 4
13.4%Fangorn 18.0%market -4.6pp
P 15.0
F 13.4
V 15.9
2.5pp 1.095xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 455 avg 3 books
54 IN
SEA vs HOUHunter Brown · slot 1
13.3%Fangorn 18.0%market -4.7pp
P 14.6
F 13.3
V 16.4
3.1pp 1.082xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 455 avg 3 books
55 IN
TOR vs NYYRyan Weathers · slot 1
13.3%Fangorn 18.4%market -5.0pp
P 14.3
F 13.3
V 12.9
1.4pp 0.934xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
56 IN
HOU vs SEABryan Woo · slot 4
13.0%Fangorn 18.2%market -5.1pp
P 13.6
F 13.0
V 16.6
3.5pp 1.082xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 450 avg 3 books
57 Lineup pending
CHC vs STLHunter Dobbins · slot 3
13.4%Fangorn 18.7%market -5.3pp
P 14.2
F 13.4
V 14.1
0.7pp 0.978xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 435 avg 3 books
58 IN
SD vs CLETanner Bibee · slot 2
13.3%Fangorn 18.9%market -5.5pp
P 13.6
F 13.3
V 17.1
3.7pp 1.054xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 430 avg 3 books
59 IN
ATL vs AZMichael Soroka · slot 1
13.3%Fangorn 19.4%market -6.1pp
P 14.6
F 13.3
V 17.0
3.6pp 1.131xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 415 avg 3 books
60 IN
PHI vs MINDean Kremer · slot 2
13.4%Fangorn 19.6%market -6.2pp
P 15.0
F 13.4
V 19.1
5.7pp 1.039xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 410 avg 3 books
61 Lineup pending
NYY vs TORDylan Cease · slot 5
13.0%Fangorn 19.2%market -6.2pp
P 12.5
F 13.0
V 15.7
3.2pp 0.934xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
62 IN
LAA vs KCNoah Cameron · slot 2
13.4%Fangorn 19.8%market -6.4pp
P 14.3
F 13.4
V 15.0
1.5pp 1.005xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 405 avg 3 books
63 IN
CLE vs SDCasey Mize · slot 1
13.4%Fangorn 20.4%market -7.0pp
P 14.6
F 13.4
V 16.2
2.8pp 1.054xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 390 avg 3 books
64
Jo Adell LAA
IN
LAA vs KCNoah Cameron · slot 4
13.4%Fangorn 20.8%market -7.4pp
P 13.4
F 13.4
V 14.2
0.7pp 1.005xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 380 avg 3 books
65 IN
HOU vs SEABryan Woo · slot 2
13.3%Fangorn 20.8%market -7.5pp
P 13.4
F 13.3
V 17.3
4.0pp 1.082xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 380 avg 3 books
66 IN
TEX vs ATHJacob Lopez · slot 4
12.8%Fangorn 20.4%market -7.6pp
P 11.8
F 12.8
V 16.2
4.4pp 1.113xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 390 avg 3 books
67 IN
AZ vs ATLBryce Elder · slot 2
13.4%Fangorn 21.1%market -7.6pp
P 15.0
F 13.4
V 13.2
1.9pp 1.131xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 375 avg 3 books
68 IN
ATL vs AZMichael Soroka · slot 2
13.4%Fangorn 21.7%market -8.3pp
P 15.3
F 13.4
V 17.0
3.6pp 1.131xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 360 avg 3 books
69 Lineup pending
TEX vs ATHJacob Lopez · slot 2
13.3%Fangorn 21.7%market -8.4pp
P 13.5
F 13.3
V 16.4
3.0pp 1.113xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 360 avg 3 books
70 IN
CIN vs MIAEury Pérez · slot 3
13.0%Fangorn 21.7%market -8.7pp
P 13.7
F 13.0
V 17.2
4.1pp 1.135xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 360 avg 3 books
71 IN
TB vs BALTrevor Rogers · slot 4
13.4%Fangorn 22.7%market -9.3pp
P 13.6
F 13.4
V 15.3
1.9pp 1.095xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 340 avg 3 books
72 IN
BAL vs TBFreddy Peralta · slot 2
13.0%Fangorn 23.0%market -9.9pp
P 14.3
F 13.0
V 18.4
5.3pp 1.095xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 335 avg 3 books
73 IN
SEA vs HOUHunter Brown · slot 3
12.7%Fangorn 26.3%market -13.6pp
P 14.6
F 12.7
V 16.0
3.3pp 1.082xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 280 avg 3 books
74 IN
PHI vs MINDean Kremer · slot 3
13.3%Fangorn 27.0%market -13.7pp
P 14.1
F 13.3
V 17.9
4.6pp 1.039xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 270 avg 3 books

Data context

0 sample flags
Status2497roster/transaction rows
Lineups270confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.