Mithrandir Metrics

TOTAL BASES 2026-06-01 · saved artifact ROWS 40 FILTERS lineup default on when confirmed lineups exist LINES 0.5 · 2.5

Lane Health 2026-06-01

Palantir 194 props Brier 0.262 ECE 0.207 sample building

Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)

Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)

Model Lane

Total Bases

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Palantir production Fangorn experimental Valinor experimental

Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.

Total Bases board

#	Player	Matchup	Three lanes	Line	Model	Market	Gap	TB proj	2+ TB	Hits	TB mult	Best line
01	Shohei OhtaniLAD	LAD vs AZEduardo Rodriguez	P 58.4 F 57.2 EXPERIMENTAL V 56.8 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Over 0.5 1 of 3	57.2%Over prob · Fangorn	81.7%no-vig	--	3.6828count	0.7867prob	1.5536proj	1.096context	FanDuel -145 avg 1 books
02	Josh SmithTEX	TEX vs STLMichael McGreevy	P 23.3 F 20.9 EXPERIMENTAL V 24.5 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Under 2.5 3 of 3	79.1%Under prob · Fangorn	74.7%no-vig	--	1.6011count	0.4647prob	0.9338proj	1.009context	DraftKings 310 avg 1 books
03	Teoscar HernándezLAD	LAD vs AZEduardo Rodriguez	P 48.1 F 48.1 EXPERIMENTAL V 47.3 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Over 0.5 1 of 3	48.1%Over prob · Fangorn	79.1%no-vig	--	2.8925count	0.6902prob	1.443proj	1.096context	FanDuel 105 avg 1 books
04	Jake BauersMIL	MIL vs SFLanden Roupp	P 24.4 F 22.6 EXPERIMENTAL V 26.0 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Under 2.5 3 of 3	77.4%Under prob · Fangorn	73.7%no-vig	--	1.6444count	0.4654prob	0.8168proj	1.057context	FanDuel 480 avg 1 books
05	Corey SeagerTEX	TEX vs STLMichael McGreevy	P 48.2 F 47.6 EXPERIMENTAL V 47.0 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Over 0.5 1 of 3	47.6%Over prob · Fangorn	78.9%no-vig	--	2.9023count	0.6894prob	1.4147proj	1.009context	FanDuel 105 avg 1 books
06	Christian YelichMIL	MIL vs SFLanden Roupp	P 65.1 F 83.6 EXPERIMENTAL V 82.0 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Over 0.5 1 of 3	83.6%Over prob · Fangorn	78.4%no-vig	--	2.6265count	0.6513prob	1.4088proj	1.057context	FanDuel 160 avg 1 books
07	Brice TurangMIL	MIL vs SFLanden Roupp	P 58.6 F 79.0 EXPERIMENTAL V 78.4 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Over 0.5 1 of 3	79.0%Over prob · Fangorn	76.8%no-vig	--	2.1895count	0.5858prob	1.3551proj	1.057context	FanDuel 170 avg 1 books
08	Brandon NimmoTEX	TEX vs STLMichael McGreevy	P 62.1 F 75.0 EXPERIMENTAL V 78.6 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Over 0.5 1 of 3	75.0%Over prob · Fangorn	74.7%no-vig	--	2.4238count	0.6212prob	1.2682proj	1.009context	FanDuel 100 avg 1 books
09	William ContrerasMIL	MIL vs SFLanden Roupp	P 61.9 F 78.2 EXPERIMENTAL V 77.6 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Over 0.5 1 of 3	78.2%Over prob · Fangorn	76.2%no-vig	--	2.3427count	0.6189prob	1.3143proj	1.057context	FanDuel 155 avg 1 books
10	Alec BurlesonSTL	STL vs TEXJacob deGrom	P 58.3 F 78.5 EXPERIMENTAL V 77.3 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Over 0.5 1 of 3	78.5%Over prob · Fangorn	74.7%no-vig	--	2.1706count	0.5827prob	1.2374proj	0.955context	FanDuel 110 avg 1 books
11	James WoodWSH	WSH vs MIASandy Alcantara	P 63.3 F 74.9 EXPERIMENTAL V 74.5 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Over 0.5 1 of 3	74.9%Over prob · Fangorn	73.6%no-vig	--	2.4157count	0.6331prob	1.2181proj	0.943context	FanDuel -110 avg 1 books
12	Jakob MarseeMIA	MIA vs WSHCade Cavalli	P 59.8 F 75.7 EXPERIMENTAL V 74.7 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Over 0.5 1 of 3	75.7%Over prob · Fangorn	72.6%no-vig	--	2.1187count	0.598prob	1.1715proj	0.934context	FanDuel 160 avg 1 books
13	Jake BurgerTEX	TEX vs STLMichael McGreevy	P 61.1 F 75.7 EXPERIMENTAL V 74.1 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Over 0.5 1 of 3	75.7%Over prob · Fangorn	70.9%no-vig	--	2.3521count	0.6114prob	1.1237proj	1.009context	FanDuel 115 avg 1 books
14	Andy PagesLAD	LAD vs AZEduardo Rodriguez	P 37.9 F 39.7 EXPERIMENTAL V 38.3 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Over 0.5 1 of 3	39.7%Over prob · Fangorn	74.7%no-vig	--	2.3106count	0.607prob	1.233proj	1.096context	FanDuel 160 avg 1 books
15	Daylen LileWSH	WSH vs MIASandy Alcantara	P 60.7 F 77.0 EXPERIMENTAL V 76.0 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Over 0.5 1 of 3	77.0%Over prob · Fangorn	74.0%no-vig	--	2.181count	0.6071prob	1.2097proj	0.943context	FanDuel -105 avg 1 books
16	Cj AbramsWSH	WSH vs MIASandy Alcantara	P 62.6 F 63.8 EXPERIMENTAL V 62.6 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Over 0.5 1 of 3	63.8%Over prob · Fangorn	74.3%no-vig	--	2.3475count	0.6262prob	1.2481proj	0.943context	FanDuel -175 avg 1 books
17	Colson MontgomeryCWS	CWS vs MINJoe Ryan	P 62.1 F 67.9 EXPERIMENTAL V 71.5 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Over 0.5 1 of 3	67.9%Over prob · Fangorn	67.9%no-vig	--	2.3686count	0.6205prob	1.0449proj	0.921context	FanDuel 125 avg 1 books
18	Jorge PolancoNYM	NYM vs SEAEmerson Hancock	P 37.9 F 37.9 EXPERIMENTAL V 37.1 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Over 0.5 1 of 3	37.9%Over prob · Fangorn	72.5%no-vig	--	2.3315count	0.5973prob	1.1693proj	1.038context	FanDuel 160 avg 1 books
19	Willi CastroCOL	COL vs LAAJosé Soriano	P 24.1 F 23.5 EXPERIMENTAL V 22.9 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Over 0.5 1 of 3	23.5%Over prob · Fangorn	64.5%no-vig	--	1.6338count	0.4643prob	0.9621proj	0.903context	DraftKings 295 avg 1 books
20	Sal FrelickMIL	MIL vs SFLanden Roupp	P 42.1 F 66.8 EXPERIMENTAL V 70.2 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Over 0.5 1 of 2	66.8%Over prob · Fangorn	66.4%no-vig	--	1.4945count	0.421prob	0.9982proj	1.057context	FanDuel 190 avg 1 books
21	Otto LopezMIA	MIA vs WSHCade Cavalli	P 40.7 F 65.2 EXPERIMENTAL V 64.2 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Over 0.5 1 of 2	65.2%Over prob · Fangorn	62.3%no-vig	--	1.4303count	0.4073prob	0.8892proj	0.934context	FanDuel 105 avg 1 books
22	Josh JungTEX	TEX vs STLMichael McGreevy	P 52.3 F 70.3 EXPERIMENTAL V 69.5 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Over 0.5 1 of 3	70.3%Over prob · Fangorn	68.1%no-vig	--	1.8831count	0.5232prob	1.0276proj	1.009context	FanDuel 105 avg 1 books
23	Luis RengifoMIL	MIL vs SFLanden Roupp	P 49.6 F 71.2 EXPERIMENTAL V 70.5 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Over 0.5 1 of 3	71.2%Over prob · Fangorn	69.0%no-vig	--	1.7634count	0.4961prob	1.0569proj	1.057context	FanDuel 175 avg 1 books
24	Xavier EdwardsMIA	MIA vs WSHCade Cavalli	P 42.6 F 73.7 EXPERIMENTAL V 72.7 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Over 0.5 1 of 2	73.7%Over prob · Fangorn	70.9%no-vig	--	1.4904count	0.4262prob	1.1182proj	0.934context	FanDuel 110 avg 1 books
25	Gabriel MorenoAZ	AZ vs LADEmmet Sheehan	P 23.7 F 24.9 EXPERIMENTAL V 23.7 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Over 0.5 1 of 3	24.9%Over prob · Fangorn	66.8%no-vig	--	1.6294count	0.4707prob	0.973proj	1.096context	DraftKings 305 avg 1 books
26	Andrew BenintendiCWS	CWS vs MINJoe Ryan	P 51.8 F 69.9 EXPERIMENTAL V 69.3 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Over 0.5 1 of 3	69.9%Over prob · Fangorn	68.4%no-vig	--	1.8881count	0.518prob	1.0518proj	0.921context	FanDuel 135 avg 1 books
27	Chase MeidrothCWS	CWS vs MINJoe Ryan	P 36.3 F 64.0 EXPERIMENTAL V 67.6 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Over 0.5 1 of 2	64.0%Over prob · Fangorn	64.3%no-vig	--	1.3346count	0.3634prob	0.9537proj	0.921context	FanDuel 170 avg 1 books
28	Keibert RuizWSH	WSH vs MIASandy Alcantara	P 24.6 F 25.2 EXPERIMENTAL V 24.2 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Over 0.5 1 of 3	25.2%Over prob · Fangorn	66.8%no-vig	--	1.6631count	0.462prob	1.0065proj	0.943context	FanDuel 600 avg 1 books
29	Joc PedersonTEX	TEX vs STLMichael McGreevy	P 52.7 F 64.7 EXPERIMENTAL V 68.1 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Over 0.5 1 of 3	64.7%Over prob · Fangorn	64.5%no-vig	--	1.9291count	0.5267prob	0.9539proj	1.009context	FanDuel 130 avg 1 books
30	Evan CarterTEX	TEX vs STLMichael McGreevy	P 53.2 F 65.3 EXPERIMENTAL V 68.7 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Over 0.5 1 of 3	65.3%Over prob · Fangorn	65.1%no-vig	--	1.8539count	0.5316prob	0.9623proj	1.009context	FanDuel 150 avg 1 books
31	Connor NorbyMIA	MIA vs WSHCade Cavalli	P 43.4 F 60.4 EXPERIMENTAL V 63.8 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Over 0.5 1 of 2	60.4%Over prob · Fangorn	60.2%no-vig	--	1.5051count	0.4339prob	0.8299proj	0.934context	FanDuel 175 avg 1 books
32	Luis Robert Jr.NYM	NYM vs SEAEmerson Hancock	P 52.4 F 51.2 EXPERIMENTAL V 50.8 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Over 0.5 1 of 3	51.2%Over prob · Fangorn	64.5%no-vig	--	1.8866count	0.5236prob	0.94proj	1.038context	FanDuel -115 avg 1 books
33	Jordan WalkerSTL	STL vs TEXJacob deGrom	P 39.3 F 58.4 EXPERIMENTAL V 61.8 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Over 0.5 1 of 2	58.4%Over prob · Fangorn	58.3%no-vig	--	1.3652count	0.3926prob	0.7987proj	0.955context	FanDuel -105 avg 1 books
34	Masyn WinnSTL	STL vs TEXJacob deGrom	P 38.7 F 62.5 EXPERIMENTAL V 61.7 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Over 0.5 1 of 2	62.5%Over prob · Fangorn	60.7%no-vig	--	1.3635count	0.3874prob	0.8502proj	0.955context	FanDuel 165 avg 1 books
35	Max MuncyLAD	LAD vs AZEduardo Rodriguez	P 54.7 F 52.3 EXPERIMENTAL V 55.9 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Over 0.5 1 of 3	52.3%Over prob · Fangorn	61.7%no-vig	--	2.0111count	0.5472prob	0.883proj	1.096context	FanDuel -125 avg 1 books
36	Liam HicksMIA	MIA vs WSHCade Cavalli	P 33.9 F 58.6 EXPERIMENTAL V 58.0 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Over 0.5 1 of 2	58.6%Over prob · Fangorn	57.5%no-vig	--	1.2269count	0.3385prob	0.7862proj	0.934context	FanDuel 130 avg 1 books
37	Dylan CrewsWSH	WSH vs MIASandy Alcantara	P 38.8 F 59.2 EXPERIMENTAL V 57.6 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Over 0.5 1 of 2	59.2%Over prob · Fangorn	55.3%no-vig	--	1.3357count	0.3875prob	0.7374proj	0.943context	FanDuel 115 avg 1 books
38	Victor Scott IISTL	STL vs TEXJacob deGrom	P 38.5 F 62.2 EXPERIMENTAL V 61.4 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Over 0.5 1 of 2	62.2%Over prob · Fangorn	60.7%no-vig	--	1.3508count	0.3847prob	0.8632proj	0.955context	FanDuel 240 avg 1 books
39	Danny JansenTEX	TEX vs STLMichael McGreevy	P 20.3 F 40.7 EXPERIMENTAL V 44.3 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Over 0.5 1 of 2	40.7%Over prob · Fangorn	53.8%no-vig	--	1.4414count	0.4314prob	0.7041proj	1.009context	FanDuel 400 avg 1 books
40	Jackson ChourioMIL	MIL vs SFLanden Roupp	P 29.7 F 42.0 EXPERIMENTAL V 41.6 EXPERIMENTAL FULL	Over 0.5 1 of 2	42.0%Over prob · Fangorn	42.0%no-vig	--	0.9224count	0.2972prob	0.4843proj	1.057context	FanDuel 125 avg 1 books