Mithrandir Metrics

Traditional line

Season by season

3D Swing Sim Projections

	PA	R	H	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2024	634	79	151	26	3	.260	.315	.453	.768
2025	495	64	118	18	1	.273	.360	.462	.822
2026	473	53	98	11	2	.241	.336	.369	.705
11 Seasons	5800	811	1348	220	45	.270	.363	.471	.834

At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-27

34

Offense
percentile

Offense9 metrics

44

Defense3 metrics

62

Speed2 metrics

28

Plate skills10 metrics

58

Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-27

xwOBA preseason	0.323
xwOBA current pace	0.304
xwOBA rolling p50	0.310
Observed weight	69%

xwOBA

0.288 0.298 0.310 0.321 0.331

wOBA

0.313 0.326 0.341 0.355 0.369

ISO

0.127 0.139 0.151 0.164 0.176

K%

13.6% 14.5% 15.5% 16.5% 17.4%

Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-27

Hitting · percentile strip

Barrel%3.5%

27

Exit velocity88.2

50

Hard-hit%37.3%

41 -17 vs proj

xBA0.285

17

xSLG0.426

21

xwOBA0.304

47 -23 vs proj

BB%11.1%

77 +20 vs proj

Bat speed68.2

30

K%16.3%

83

Defense · percentile strip

Arm Strength82.0 · 3B

12

Outs Above Avg5.0 · 3B

91

Range Runs3.6 · 3B

84

Baserunning · percentile strip

Base Running Runs-0.3 · 3B

35

Sprint Speed26.1 · 3B

20

SB Success Rate100.0% · 3B

Small sample

Mithrandir+

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.

2026-07-27

Avoids Bad ChasesST 75.1% · rebadged research

94

Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.0% · rebadged research

24

Correct Decisions68.9% · rebadged research

78

SEAGER+ Plate Discipline107

81

Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.266 · borderline

88

Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.256 · insufficient sample

97

Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.294 · validated thin sample

18

Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.375 · insufficient sample

3

Resists FastballwOBA 0.350 · validated

29

Resists SinkerwOBA 0.350 · validated

74

Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots

Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Alex Bregman's tools (75) outpace production (74) by 1 points. Primary finding: groundball-heavy approach with the raw power to drive the ball — leaving fly-ball damage on the table. Also flagged: Contact-Discipline Mismatch. Most actionable fix: elevate bat path to increase average launch angle toward 12-18° range.

See full optimization →

See the swing in 3D →

Launch Angle Too Low

+11.5° Current 4° → Target 16°

Elevate bat path to increase average launch angle toward 12-18° range

Solid = current angle. Dotted = recommended window.

Contact-Discipline Mismatch

Hold Hold Hold Hold Attack Hold Hold Hold Hold

Shorten swing against breaking balls while maintaining bat speed on fastballs

Protected takes / Chase risk

Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

222 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

2026

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-1.4σ gap

wOBA (actual)0.341

xwOBA (deserved)0.304

Bregman’s wOBA sits at 0.341, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.304 — a gap of 0.037, -1.4 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 479 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape

Closest profiles

Full constellation →

Player	Similarity	Agrees on	Open
Pasquantino, Vinnie KC · L	0.77	Max exit velocityBat speed	Player · Projection
Yoshida, Masataka BOS · L	0.74	Sprint speedSweet-spot rate	Player · Projection
Smith, Dominic ATL · L	0.71	Sprint speedIn-zone contact	Player · Projection
Tucker, Kyle LAD · L	0.70	Isolated powerPull rate	Player · Projection

Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

Module	Cards	Latest	Signal
Hitting	5	2026-07-27	Impact contact carried uneven swing decisions
Fielding	2	2026-07-25	2 chances \| 0 difficult plays \| Run Exp +0.153

Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Hitter Projections 20260.327 xwOBA \| 20 HR	Projection
2026-05-20 vs MIL0 HR \| 0 RBI / 2 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| K
2026-04-20 vs PHI0 HR \| 0 RBI / 4 Ch \| 0 E	2-4 \| 2 2B, K
2026-04-17 vs NYM0 HR \| 0 RBI / 4 Ch \| 0 E	1-5 \| K, R
2026-04-15 @ PHI0 HR \| 0 RBI / 2 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| BB, 3 K, R
2026-04-14 @ PHI0 HR \| 3 RBI / 1 Ch \| 0 E	3-5 \| K, 3 RBI

Age	32
Height	5' 10"
Weight	190 lb
Debut	2016-07-25

xwOBA Δ	-0.023
wOBA Δ	+0.014

Hitter Projections 20260.327 xwOBA \| 20 HR	Projection
2026-05-20 vs MIL0 HR \| 0 RBI / 2 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| K
2026-04-20 vs PHI0 HR \| 0 RBI / 4 Ch \| 0 E	2-4 \| 2 2B, K
2026-04-17 vs NYM0 HR \| 0 RBI / 4 Ch \| 0 E	1-5 \| K, R
2026-04-15 @ PHI0 HR \| 0 RBI / 2 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| BB, 3 K, R
2026-04-14 @ PHI0 HR \| 3 RBI / 1 Ch \| 0 E	3-5 \| K, 3 RBI

Alex Bregman

Season by season

Season percentile report

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Current traits vs projection tick

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

xwOBA snapshot line

Swing path and decision map

Field-coordinate spray profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Current snapshot

Delta / regression

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

Closest profiles

Module shelf

Available detail