Reference layer
Current snapshot
| MLB bio context is unavailable. |
Player profile / BAL
Colton Cowser
Player · Bats/Throws L/R · 6' 3", 220 lb · Age 26
Club BAL
Position --
Roster profile
Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line
Season by season
| PA | R | H | HR | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 561 | 77 | 121 | 24 | 9 | .242 | .321 | .447 | .768 |
| 2025 | 360 | 36 | 64 | 16 | 14 | .196 | .269 | .385 | .654 |
| 2026 | 392 | 41 | 77 | 13 | 10 | .226 | .317 | .370 | .687 |
| 4 Seasons | 1390 | 169 | 269 | 53 | 34 | .219 | .305 | .394 | .699 |
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
65
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
Pending
Rolling player projection appears after current-season Statcast and projection joins refresh.
Live percentile strip
Current traits vs projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.4%
58
Exit velocity87.1
41
Hard-hit%41.1%
64
xBA0.342
76
xSLG0.619
84
xwOBA0.315
65
BB%11.9%
87
Bat speed71.4
75
K%31.1%
13
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.0 · CF
55
Arm Strength97.2 · CF
76
Outs Above Avg1.0 · CF
80
Range Runs8.9 · CF
95
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.6 · CF
55
SB Success Rate71.4% · CF
30
Sprint Speed28.1 · CF
68
Mithrandir+
Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance
Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 66.8% · rebadged research
58
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.8% · rebadged research
34
Correct Decisions64.8% · rebadged research
34
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline100
49
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.292 · borderline
41
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.281 · insufficient sample
45
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.295 · validated thin sample
20
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.325 · insufficient sample
49
Resists FastballwOBA 0.331 · validated
63
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.389 · validated
6
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
151 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live layer
Delta / regression
| xwOBA Δ | -- |
| wOBA Δ | -- |
negative regression
Regression watch
Running hot. Expect some cooling.
Cowser’s wOBA sits at 0.324, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.315 — a gap of 0.009, -0.3 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 411 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.
Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape
Closest profiles
| Player | Similarity | Agrees on | Open |
|---|---|---|---|
| Castro, Willi COL · L | 0.74 | Sprint speedBarrel rate | Player · Projection |
| Riley, Austin ATL · R | 0.70 | Pull rateStrikeout rate | Player · Projection |
| Duran, Jarren BOS · L | 0.68 | Sweet-spot rateHard-hit rate | Player · Projection |
| Burger, Jake TEX · R | 0.68 | Max exit velocityOppo rate | Player · Projection |
Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.
Mithrandir coverage
Module shelf
| Module | Cards | Latest | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hitting | 3 | 2026-08-29 | Impact contact was the main driver |
| Fielding | 21 | 2026-09-25 | 2 chances | 0 difficult plays | Run Exp -0.366 |
Projection links / recent games
Available detail
| No projection links or recent game log rows are available yet. |