Mithrandir Metrics

Traditional line

Season by season

3D Swing Sim Projections

	PA	R	H	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2024	561	77	121	24	9	.242	.321	.447	.768
2025	360	36	64	16	14	.196	.269	.385	.654
2026	342	38	64	13	8	.215	.305	.366	.671
4 Seasons	1340	166	256	53	32	.216	.301	.394	.695

At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-02

67

Offense
percentile

Offense9 metrics

64

Defense4 metrics

73

Speed3 metrics

47

Plate skills10 metrics

43

Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-02

xwOBA preseason	0.313
xwOBA current pace	0.323
xwOBA rolling p50	0.319
Observed weight	62%

xwOBA

0.291 0.304 0.319 0.335 0.348

wOBA

0.292 0.307 0.324 0.341 0.356

ISO

0.130 0.144 0.160 0.176 0.190

K%

27.8% 29.2% 30.8% 32.3% 33.8%

Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-02

Hitting · percentile strip

Barrel%6.2%

69

Exit velocity87.0

40

Hard-hit%40.4%

59 -22 vs proj

xBA0.339

73

xSLG0.647

89

xwOBA0.323

71

BB%11.8%

86 +24 vs proj

Bat speed71.4

75

K%30.3%

14

Defense · percentile strip

Arm Runs-0.5 · CF

40

Arm Strength97.2 · CF

79

Outs Above Avg1.0 · CF

80

Range Runs7.2 · CF

93

Baserunning · percentile strip

Base Running Runs0.6 · CF

55

SB Success Rate66.7% · CF

20

Sprint Speed28.0 · CF

66

Mithrandir+

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.

2026-09-02

Avoids Bad ChasesST 67.0% · rebadged research

60

Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.9% · rebadged research

33

Correct Decisions64.9% · rebadged research

37

SEAGER+ Plate Discipline101

49

Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.286 · borderline

57

Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.276 · insufficient sample

57

Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.288 · validated thin sample

25

Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.327 · insufficient sample

49

Resists FastballwOBA 0.337 · validated

53

Resists SinkerwOBA 0.388 · validated

6

Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots

Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Colton Cowser's production (79) outpaces the tools grade (78) by 1 points. Primary finding: excessive fly-ball angle — producing popups instead of line drives.

See full optimization →

See the swing in 3D →

Launch Angle Too High

-11.0° Current 31° → Target 20°

Flatten swing plane to bring average LA into the 15-22° window

Solid = current angle. Dotted = recommended window.

Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

131 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-0.0σ gap

wOBA (actual)0.324

xwOBA (deserved)0.323

Cowser’s wOBA sits at 0.324, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.323 — a gap of 0.001, -0.0 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 356 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape

Closest profiles

Full constellation →

Player	Similarity	Agrees on	Open
Castro, Willi COL · L	0.74	Avg exit velocityHard-hit rate	Player · Projection
Happ, Ian CHC · L	0.72	Sprint speedIn-zone contact	Player · Projection
Crews, Dylan WSH · R	0.69	Barrel rateGround-ball rate	Player · Projection
Riley, Austin ATL · R	0.67	Fly-ball rateSprint speed	Player · Projection

Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

Module	Cards	Latest	Signal
Hitting	3	2026-08-29	Impact contact was the main driver
Fielding	13	2026-08-31	4 chances \| 0 difficult plays \| Run Exp +1.694

Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Hitter Projections 20260.311 xwOBA \| 18 HR	Projection
2026-08-15 @ TB0 HR \| 0 RBI / 1 Ch \| 0 E	0-0 \| R
2026-05-20 @ TB0 HR \| 0 RBI / 1 Ch \| 0 E	1-1
2026-04-20 @ KC0 HR \| 0 RBI / 2 Ch \| 0 E	0-2 \| 2 K
2026-04-17 @ CLE0 HR \| 0 RBI / 3 Ch \| 0 E	0-3 \| K
2026-04-15 vs AZ0 HR \| 0 RBI / 1 Ch \| 0 E	0-2 \| K

Age	26
Height	6' 3"
Weight	220 lb
Debut	2023-07-05

xwOBA Δ	+0.013
wOBA Δ	+0.013

Hitter Projections 20260.311 xwOBA \| 18 HR	Projection
2026-08-15 @ TB0 HR \| 0 RBI / 1 Ch \| 0 E	0-0 \| R
2026-05-20 @ TB0 HR \| 0 RBI / 1 Ch \| 0 E	1-1
2026-04-20 @ KC0 HR \| 0 RBI / 2 Ch \| 0 E	0-2 \| 2 K
2026-04-17 @ CLE0 HR \| 0 RBI / 3 Ch \| 0 E	0-3 \| K
2026-04-15 vs AZ0 HR \| 0 RBI / 1 Ch \| 0 E	0-2 \| K

Colton Cowser

Season by season

Season percentile report

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Current traits vs projection tick

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

xwOBA snapshot line

Swing path and decision map

Field-coordinate spray profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Current snapshot

Delta / regression

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

Closest profiles

Module shelf

Available detail