Reference layer
Current snapshot
| Age | 26 |
| Height | 6' 3" |
| Weight | 220 lb |
| Debut | 2023-07-05 |
Player profile / Baltimore Orioles
Colton Cowser
CF · Bats/Throws L/R · 6' 3", 220 lb · Age 26
Club Baltimore Orioles
Position CF
Roster Active
Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line
Season by season
| PA | R | H | HR | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 561 | 77 | 121 | 24 | 9 | .242 | .321 | .447 | .768 |
| 2025 | 360 | 36 | 64 | 16 | 14 | .196 | .269 | .385 | .654 |
| 2026 | 235 | 28 | 44 | 8 | 4 | .215 | .303 | .346 | .649 |
| 4 Seasons | 1233 | 156 | 236 | 48 | 28 | .216 | .300 | .393 | .693 |
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
57
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.313 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.316 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.315 |
| Observed weight | 53% |
xwOBA
0.282
0.298
0.315
0.332
0.348
wOBA
0.281
0.299
0.319
0.339
0.357
ISO
0.116
0.133
0.152
0.170
0.187
K%
27.9%
29.6%
31.4%
33.2%
34.9%
Live percentile strip
Current traits vs projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.4%
71
Exit velocity85.5
22
Hard-hit%37.1%
42
-35 vs proj
xBA0.327
57
xSLG0.653
87
xwOBA0.316
60
BB%11.6%
81
+21 vs proj
Bat speed71.1
72
K%31.3%
11
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.5 · CF
65
Arm Strength97.2 · CF
81
Outs Above Avg1.0 · CF
80
Range Runs5.0 · CF
91
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.4 · CF
54
SB Success Rate66.7% · CF
20
Sprint Speed28.0 · CF
68
Mithrandir+
Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance
Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 67.1% · rebadged research
58
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.1% · rebadged research
60
Correct Decisions65.9% · rebadged research
48
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.279 · borderline
71
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.264 · insufficient sample
90
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.282 · validated thin sample
44
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.323 · insufficient sample
77
Resists FastballwOBA 0.340 · validated
45
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.399 · validated
4
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline103
63
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
93 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live layer
Delta / regression
| xwOBA Δ | +0.006 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.008 |
negative regression
Regression watch
Running hot. Expect some cooling.
Cowser’s wOBA sits at 0.319, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.316 — a gap of 0.003, -0.1 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 249 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.
Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape
Closest profiles
| Player | Similarity | Agrees on | Open |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matthews, Brice HOU · R | 0.66 | In-zone contactHard-hit rate | Player · Projection |
| Riley, Austin ATL · R | 0.60 | Isolated powerPull rate | Player · Projection |
| Duran, Jarren BOS · L | 0.59 | Oppo rateWhiff rate | Player · Projection |
| Burger, Jake TEX · R | 0.57 | Swing lengthBarrel rate | Player · Projection |
Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.
Mithrandir coverage
Module shelf
| Module | Cards | Latest | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| No Mithrandir card history is available for this player yet. | |||
Projection links / recent games
Available detail
| Hitter Projections 20260.311 xwOBA | 18 HR | Projection |
| 2026-05-20 @ TB0 HR | 0 RBI / 1 Ch | 0 E | 1-1 |
| 2026-04-20 @ KC0 HR | 0 RBI / 2 Ch | 0 E | 0-2 | 2 K |
| 2026-04-17 @ CLE0 HR | 0 RBI / 3 Ch | 0 E | 0-3 | K |
| 2026-04-15 vs AZ0 HR | 0 RBI / 1 Ch | 0 E | 0-2 | K |
| 2026-04-14 vs AZ0 HR | 0 RBI / 1 Ch | 0 E | 1-3 | BB |