Projections
Daily Strikeout Props Board
A site-facing read of the saved strikeout props artifact. The page keeps the underlying daily strikeout model intact, then layers in bounded lineup and pitch-matchup context to produce an adjusted mean and threshold ladder.
Overview
Props Snapshot
The page reads directly from the saved props artifact and keeps the public view centered on adjusted strikeout expectations and threshold probabilities.
Leaderboard
Matchup-Adjusted Strikeout Board
| Pitcher | Matchup | Base K | Adj K | Delta | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tarik Skubal
Probable | projected
|
DET vs LAA
Score 91.3 | Lineup K 7.61
|
6.15 | 6.88 | +0.73 | 86.9% | 76.5% | 64.0% | 50.9% | 38.5% |
Jesús Luzardo
Probable | projected
|
PHI vs NYM
Score 59.9 | Lineup K 5.94
|
6.31 | 6.23 | -0.08 | 82.3% | 69.9% | 56.0% | 42.4% | 30.3% |
MacKenzie Gore
Probable | projected
|
TEX vs ATL
Score 51.0 | Lineup K 5.57
|
5.77 | 5.70 | -0.07 | 77.6% | 63.5% | 48.7% | 35.1% | 23.9% |
Gavin Williams
Probable | projected
|
CLE vs PIT
Score 48.4 | Lineup K 5.33
|
5.90 | 5.64 | -0.26 | 77.0% | 62.7% | 47.9% | 34.3% | 23.2% |
Logan Webb
Probable | projected
|
SF vs SEA
Score 54.7 | Lineup K 6.11
|
5.31 | 5.61 | +0.30 | 76.7% | 62.4% | 47.4% | 33.9% | 22.8% |
Spencer Arrighetti
Probable | projected
|
HOU vs BAL
Score 47.2 | Lineup K 5.82
|
5.19 | 5.40 | +0.21 | 74.5% | 59.5% | 44.3% | 31.0% | 20.4% |
Bryan Woo
Probable | projected
|
SEA vs SF
Score 70.6 | Lineup K 5.69
|
5.09 | 5.39 | +0.30 | 74.4% | 59.4% | 44.2% | 30.8% | 20.2% |
Matthew Boyd
Probable | projected
|
CHC vs MIN
Score 52.9 | Lineup K 5.04
|
5.32 | 5.23 | -0.09 | 72.5% | 57.0% | 41.8% | 28.6% | 18.5% |
Emmet Sheehan
Probable | projected
|
LAD vs NYY
Score 58.7 | Lineup K 5.81
|
4.70 | 5.12 | +0.42 | 71.2% | 55.4% | 40.1% | 27.2% | 17.3% |
Taj Bradley
Probable | projected
|
MIN vs CHC
Score 47.8 | Lineup K 5.22
|
5.01 | 5.07 | +0.06 | 70.6% | 54.7% | 39.4% | 26.5% | 16.7% |
Shane Bieber
Probable | projected
|
TOR vs CWS
Score 56.2 | Lineup K 5.17
|
4.95 | 5.05 | +0.10 | 70.3% | 54.4% | 39.1% | 26.2% | 16.5% |
Sean Manaea
Probable | projected
|
NYM vs PHI
Score 60.2 | Lineup K 5.67
|
4.46 | 4.92 | +0.46 | 68.7% | 52.4% | 37.1% | 24.5% | 15.2% |
Ryan Weathers
Probable | projected
|
NYY vs LAD
Score 27.0 | Lineup K 4.43
|
5.25 | 4.87 | -0.38 | 68.0% | 51.6% | 36.3% | 23.8% | 14.6% |
J.t. Ginn
Probable | projected
|
ATH vs WSH
Score 56.5 | Lineup K 5.39
|
4.52 | 4.85 | +0.33 | 67.7% | 51.3% | 36.0% | 23.5% | 14.4% |
Brandon Pfaadt
Probable | projected
|
AZ vs STL
Score 49.4 | Lineup K 5.17
|
4.46 | 4.71 | +0.25 | 65.8% | 49.0% | 33.8% | 21.7% | 13.1% |
Max Meyer
Probable | projected
|
MIA vs MIL
Score 35.7 | Lineup K 4.83
|
4.58 | 4.66 | +0.08 | 65.0% | 48.2% | 33.1% | 21.1% | 12.6% |
Trevor Rogers
Probable | projected
|
BAL vs HOU
Score 35.7 | Lineup K 4.56
|
4.34 | 4.37 | +0.03 | 60.7% | 43.4% | 28.6% | 17.5% | 10.0% |
Logan Allen
Probable | projected
|
CLE vs PIT
Score 29.9 | Lineup K 4.63
|
4.18 | 4.27 | +0.09 | 59.1% | 41.7% | 27.1% | 16.3% | 9.2% |
Zack Littell
Probable | projected
|
WSH vs ATH
Score 45.4 | Lineup K 4.88
|
3.58 | 3.99 | +0.41 | 54.3% | 36.9% | 22.9% | 13.2% | 7.1% |
Davis Martin
Probable | projected
|
CWS vs TOR
Score 24.7 | Lineup K 3.99
|
3.98 | 3.90 | -0.08 | 52.7% | 35.3% | 21.6% | 12.2% | 6.5% |
Dustin May
Probable | projected
|
STL vs AZ
Score 26.0 | Lineup K 4.16
|
3.83 | 3.87 | +0.04 | 52.2% | 34.8% | 21.2% | 11.9% | 6.2% |
Griffin Canning
Probable | projected
|
SD vs KC
Score 31.2 | Lineup K 4.27
|
3.70 | 3.80 | +0.10 | 50.9% | 33.5% | 20.2% | 11.2% | 5.8% |
Methodology
How V1 Builds The Board
Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.
Baseline
Daily Strikeout Model First
The baseline mean comes from the existing pitcher strikeout projection system, unchanged from the saved daily strikeout artifact.
Adjustment
Bounded Matchup Overlay
Public context is limited to the matchup score, lineup expected strikeouts, lineup confidence, and pitch-mix sample size. The adjustment stays modest and explainable instead of replacing the baseline model.
Probabilities
Threshold Ladder
The 4+ through 8+ probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using the artifact's deterministic negative binomial style count layer.
Later
Ready For Market Comparison
This page can expand cleanly into sportsbook line comparison later by adding line, price, fair probability, and fair-price gap columns next to the existing baseline, adjusted mean, and threshold ladder.