Projections
Daily Strikeout Props Board
A site-facing read of the saved strikeout props artifact. The page keeps the underlying daily strikeout model intact, then layers in bounded lineup and pitch-matchup context to produce an adjusted mean and threshold ladder.
Overview
Props Snapshot
The page reads directly from the saved props artifact and keeps the public view centered on adjusted strikeout expectations and threshold probabilities.
Leaderboard
Matchup-Adjusted Strikeout Board
| Pitcher | Matchup | Base K | Adj K | Delta | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cristopher Sánchez
Probable | confirmed
|
PHI vs HOU
Score 58.2 | Lineup K 5.41
|
6.23 | 5.98 | -0.25 | 80.2% | 67.0% | 52.7% | 39.0% | 27.3% |
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Probable | confirmed
|
LAD vs CIN
Score 72.2 | Lineup K 5.68
|
5.89 | 5.92 | +0.03 | 79.7% | 66.3% | 51.8% | 38.1% | 26.5% |
Hunter Brown
Probable | confirmed
|
HOU vs PHI
Score 67.0 | Lineup K 5.23
|
6.08 | 5.86 | -0.22 | 79.2% | 65.6% | 51.0% | 37.3% | 25.8% |
Kevin Gausman
Probable | confirmed
|
CHC vs MIL
Score 58.5 | Lineup K 5.33
|
5.56 | 5.52 | -0.04 | 75.8% | 61.1% | 46.1% | 32.6% | 21.7% |
Will Warren
Probable | confirmed
|
NYY vs COL
Score 60.1 | Lineup K 5.81
|
5.13 | 5.36 | +0.23 | 74.0% | 58.9% | 43.8% | 30.4% | 19.9% |
Zebby Matthews
Probable | confirmed
|
MIN vs DET
Score 54.5 | Lineup K 5.75
|
4.69 | 5.08 | +0.39 | 70.7% | 54.8% | 39.5% | 26.6% | 16.8% |
Shane Baz
Probable | confirmed
|
BAL vs CLE
Score 49.6 | Lineup K 4.39
|
5.05 | 4.82 | -0.23 | 67.3% | 50.8% | 35.5% | 23.2% | 14.1% |
Davis Martin
Probable | confirmed
|
CWS vs PIT
Score 42.7 | Lineup K 4.64
|
4.38 | 4.44 | +0.06 | 61.8% | 44.6% | 29.7% | 18.3% | 10.6% |
Zac Gallen
Probable | confirmed
|
AZ vs KC
Score 40.8 | Lineup K 4.69
|
3.87 | 4.13 | +0.26 | 56.8% | 39.3% | 25.0% | 14.7% | 8.1% |
Walker Buehler
Probable | confirmed
|
SD vs WSH
Score 31.1 | Lineup K 3.83
|
3.49 | 3.55 | +0.06 | 46.2% | 29.1% | 16.7% | 8.8% | 4.3% |
Keider Montero
Probable | confirmed
|
DET vs MIN
Score 28.2 | Lineup K 3.65
|
3.50 | 3.49 | -0.01 | 45.1% | 28.1% | 15.9% | 8.3% | 4.0% |
Janson Junk
Probable | confirmed
|
MIA vs NYM
Score 22.5 | Lineup K 3.29
|
3.58 | 3.40 | -0.18 | 43.3% | 26.5% | 14.8% | 7.6% | 3.6% |
Tomoyuki Sugano
Probable | confirmed
|
COL vs NYY
Score 22.6 | Lineup K 3.67
|
3.04 | 3.16 | +0.12 | 38.5% | 22.4% | 11.9% | 5.8% | 2.6% |
Andre Pallante
Probable | confirmed
|
STL vs SF
Score 41.0 | Lineup K 2.79
|
2.90 | 2.84 | -0.06 | 31.9% | 17.3% | 8.4% | 3.8% | 1.6% |
Methodology
How V1 Builds The Board
Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.
Baseline
Daily Strikeout Model First
The baseline mean comes from the existing pitcher strikeout projection system, unchanged from the saved daily strikeout artifact.
Adjustment
Bounded Matchup Overlay
Public context is limited to the matchup score, lineup expected strikeouts, lineup confidence, and pitch-mix sample size. The adjustment stays modest and explainable instead of replacing the baseline model.
Probabilities
Threshold Ladder
The 4+ through 8+ probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using the artifact's deterministic negative binomial style count layer.
Later
Ready For Market Comparison
This page can expand cleanly into sportsbook line comparison later by adding line, price, fair probability, and fair-price gap columns next to the existing baseline, adjusted mean, and threshold ladder.