Projections
Daily Strikeout Props Board
A site-facing read of the saved strikeout props artifact. The page keeps the underlying daily strikeout model intact, then layers in bounded lineup and pitch-matchup context to produce an adjusted mean and threshold ladder.
Overview
Props Snapshot
The page reads directly from the saved props artifact and keeps the public view centered on adjusted strikeout expectations and threshold probabilities.
Leaderboard
Matchup-Adjusted Strikeout Board
| Pitcher | Matchup | Base K | Adj K | Delta | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dylan Cease
Probable | projected
|
TOR vs ATH
Score 72.9 | Lineup K 6.72
|
6.57 | 6.74 | +0.17 | 86.0% | 75.2% | 62.4% | 49.1% | 36.7% |
Jesús Luzardo
Probable | projected
|
PHI vs ATL
Score 59.5 | Lineup K 5.97
|
6.51 | 6.37 | -0.14 | 83.4% | 71.5% | 57.8% | 44.2% | 32.1% |
Logan Webb
Probable | projected
|
SF vs STL
Score 62.8 | Lineup K 5.98
|
5.83 | 5.94 | +0.11 | 79.9% | 66.6% | 52.1% | 38.4% | 26.8% |
Joe Ryan
Probable | projected
|
MIN vs DET
Score 70.2 | Lineup K 6.13
|
5.68 | 5.93 | +0.25 | 79.8% | 66.4% | 52.0% | 38.3% | 26.6% |
Nick Pivetta
Probable | projected
|
SD vs WSH
Score 57.0 | Lineup K 5.17
|
5.72 | 5.56 | -0.16 | 76.2% | 61.7% | 46.7% | 33.2% | 22.2% |
Emmet Sheehan
Probable | projected
|
LAD vs CIN
Score 70.5 | Lineup K 5.97
|
5.09 | 5.49 | +0.40 | 75.5% | 60.7% | 45.7% | 32.2% | 21.4% |
Joey Cantillo
Probable | projected
|
CLE vs BAL
Score 47.6 | Lineup K 5.34
|
5.18 | 5.23 | +0.05 | 72.5% | 57.0% | 41.8% | 28.6% | 18.5% |
Eury Pérez
Probable | projected
|
MIA vs NYM
Score 54.3 | Lineup K 5.13
|
4.67 | 4.85 | +0.18 | 67.7% | 51.3% | 36.0% | 23.5% | 14.4% |
Jacob Lopez
Probable | projected
|
ATH vs TOR
Score 55.6 | Lineup K 5.19
|
4.60 | 4.83 | +0.23 | 67.4% | 51.0% | 35.7% | 23.3% | 14.2% |
Trevor Rogers
Probable | projected
|
BAL vs CLE
Score 52.0 | Lineup K 4.99
|
4.73 | 4.83 | +0.10 | 67.4% | 51.0% | 35.7% | 23.3% | 14.2% |
Grant Holmes
Probable | projected
|
ATL vs PHI
Score 52.0 | Lineup K 5.67
|
4.34 | 4.81 | +0.47 | 67.2% | 50.6% | 35.4% | 23.0% | 14.1% |
Matthew Boyd
Probable | projected
|
CHC vs MIL
Score 46.0 | Lineup K 4.74
|
4.61 | 4.64 | +0.03 | 64.8% | 47.9% | 32.8% | 20.8% | 12.4% |
Brayan Bello
Probable | projected
|
BOS vs LAA
Score 50.0 | Lineup K 5.91
|
3.92 | 4.39 | +0.47 | 61.0% | 43.8% | 28.9% | 17.7% | 10.2% |
Noah Cameron
Probable | projected
|
KC vs AZ
Score 31.8 | Lineup K 4.09
|
4.40 | 4.19 | -0.21 | 57.8% | 40.3% | 25.9% | 15.4% | 8.5% |
Jake Irvin
Probable | projected
|
WSH vs SD
Score 25.7 | Lineup K 4.28
|
3.92 | 3.97 | +0.05 | 54.0% | 36.5% | 22.6% | 13.0% | 6.9% |
Michael McGreevy
Probable | projected
|
STL vs SF
Score 34.3 | Lineup K 4.02
|
2.87 | 3.17 | +0.30 | 38.7% | 22.6% | 12.0% | 5.8% | 2.6% |
Methodology
How V1 Builds The Board
Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.
Baseline
Daily Strikeout Model First
The baseline mean comes from the existing pitcher strikeout projection system, unchanged from the saved daily strikeout artifact.
Adjustment
Bounded Matchup Overlay
Public context is limited to the matchup score, lineup expected strikeouts, lineup confidence, and pitch-mix sample size. The adjustment stays modest and explainable instead of replacing the baseline model.
Probabilities
Threshold Ladder
The 4+ through 8+ probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using the artifact's deterministic negative binomial style count layer.
Later
Ready For Market Comparison
This page can expand cleanly into sportsbook line comparison later by adding line, price, fair probability, and fair-price gap columns next to the existing baseline, adjusted mean, and threshold ladder.