Projections
Daily Strikeout Props Board
A site-facing read of the saved strikeout props artifact. The page keeps the underlying daily strikeout model intact, then layers in bounded lineup and pitch-matchup context to produce an adjusted mean and threshold ladder.
Overview
Props Snapshot
The page reads directly from the saved props artifact and keeps the public view centered on adjusted strikeout expectations and threshold probabilities.
Leaderboard
Matchup-Adjusted Strikeout Board
| Pitcher | Matchup | Base K | Adj K | Delta | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Logan Gilbert
Probable | projected
|
SEA vs ATH
Score 74.8 | Lineup K 6.43
|
6.52 | 6.62 | +0.10 | 85.2% | 74.0% | 61.0% | 47.5% | 35.2% |
Chris Sale
Probable | projected
|
ATL vs PHI
Score 79.4 | Lineup K 6.82
|
6.16 | 6.54 | +0.38 | 84.7% | 73.2% | 60.0% | 46.5% | 34.2% |
Blake Snell
Probable | projected
|
LAD vs WSH
Score 74.6 | Lineup K 6.41
|
6.13 | 6.35 | +0.22 | 83.3% | 71.2% | 57.6% | 44.0% | 31.8% |
Cristopher Sánchez
Probable | projected
|
PHI vs ATL
Score 58.6 | Lineup K 5.80
|
6.23 | 6.12 | -0.11 | 81.5% | 68.7% | 54.6% | 40.9% | 29.0% |
Max Fried
Probable | projected
|
NYY vs SD
Score 55.7 | Lineup K 5.51
|
5.14 | 5.29 | +0.15 | 73.2% | 57.9% | 42.7% | 29.5% | 19.1% |
Shane Baz
Probable | projected
|
BAL vs BOS
Score 46.0 | Lineup K 5.30
|
5.05 | 5.12 | +0.07 | 71.2% | 55.4% | 40.1% | 27.2% | 17.3% |
Shota Imanaga
Probable | projected
|
CHC vs MIA
Score 52.4 | Lineup K 5.02
|
4.97 | 5.00 | +0.03 | 69.7% | 53.6% | 38.3% | 25.5% | 16.0% |
Zebby Matthews
Probable | projected
|
MIN vs CWS
Score 54.4 | Lineup K 4.92
|
4.69 | 4.84 | +0.15 | 67.6% | 51.1% | 35.8% | 23.4% | 14.3% |
Ranger Suarez
Probable | projected
|
BOS vs BAL
Score 50.2 | Lineup K 5.50
|
4.27 | 4.70 | +0.43 | 65.6% | 48.9% | 33.7% | 21.6% | 13.0% |
Merrill Kelly
Probable | projected
|
AZ vs HOU
Score 46.2 | Lineup K 5.10
|
3.99 | 4.37 | +0.38 | 60.7% | 43.4% | 28.6% | 17.5% | 10.0% |
Logan Allen
Probable | projected
|
CLE vs DET
Score 29.6 | Lineup K 4.59
|
4.20 | 4.27 | +0.07 | 59.1% | 41.7% | 27.1% | 16.3% | 9.2% |
Jameson Taillon
Probable | projected
|
TOR vs KC
Score 37.2 | Lineup K 4.18
|
4.27 | 4.20 | -0.07 | 57.9% | 40.5% | 26.0% | 15.5% | 8.6% |
Ryan Feltner
Probable | projected
|
COL vs STL
Score 43.9 | Lineup K 4.79
|
3.82 | 4.14 | +0.32 | 56.9% | 39.5% | 25.1% | 14.8% | 8.2% |
Erick Fedde
Probable | projected
|
CWS vs MIN
Score 35.0 | Lineup K 4.86
|
3.66 | 4.07 | +0.41 | 55.7% | 38.3% | 24.1% | 14.0% | 7.6% |
Trevor Williams
Probable | projected
|
TEX vs TB
Score 32.7 | Lineup K 3.81
|
3.98 | 3.87 | -0.11 | 52.2% | 34.8% | 21.2% | 11.9% | 6.2% |
Nick Martinez
Probable | projected
|
TB vs TEX
Score 33.0 | Lineup K 4.46
|
3.48 | 3.77 | +0.29 | 50.4% | 33.0% | 19.8% | 10.9% | 5.6% |
Walker Buehler
Probable | projected
|
SD vs NYY
Score 20.1 | Lineup K 4.46
|
3.49 | 3.74 | +0.25 | 49.8% | 32.5% | 19.3% | 10.6% | 5.4% |
Cristian Javier
Probable | projected
|
HOU vs AZ
Score 30.1 | Lineup K 4.12
|
3.45 | 3.63 | +0.18 | 47.8% | 30.5% | 17.8% | 9.6% | 4.8% |
Janson Junk
Probable | projected
|
MIA vs CHC
Score 24.9 | Lineup K 3.46
|
3.58 | 3.47 | -0.11 | 44.7% | 27.8% | 15.7% | 8.2% | 3.9% |
Keider Montero
Probable | projected
|
DET vs CLE
Score 36.4 | Lineup K 3.58
|
3.12 | 3.25 | +0.13 | 40.3% | 24.0% | 12.9% | 6.4% | 2.9% |
Andre Pallante
Probable | projected
|
STL vs COL
Score 42.8 | Lineup K 5.11
|
2.90 | 3.23 | +0.33 | 39.9% | 23.6% | 12.7% | 6.2% | 2.9% |
Methodology
How V1 Builds The Board
Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.
Baseline
Daily Strikeout Model First
The baseline mean comes from the existing pitcher strikeout projection system, unchanged from the saved daily strikeout artifact.
Adjustment
Bounded Matchup Overlay
Public context is limited to the matchup score, lineup expected strikeouts, lineup confidence, and pitch-mix sample size. The adjustment stays modest and explainable instead of replacing the baseline model.
Probabilities
Threshold Ladder
The 4+ through 8+ probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using the artifact's deterministic negative binomial style count layer.
Later
Ready For Market Comparison
This page can expand cleanly into sportsbook line comparison later by adding line, price, fair probability, and fair-price gap columns next to the existing baseline, adjusted mean, and threshold ladder.