Projections
Daily Strikeout Props Board
A site-facing read of the saved strikeout props artifact. The page keeps the underlying daily strikeout model intact, then layers in bounded lineup and pitch-matchup context to produce an adjusted mean and threshold ladder.
Overview
Props Snapshot
The page reads directly from the saved props artifact and keeps the public view centered on adjusted strikeout expectations and threshold probabilities.
Leaderboard
Matchup-Adjusted Strikeout Board
| Pitcher | Matchup | Base K | Adj K | Delta | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tarik Skubal
Probable | projected
|
LAD vs CIN
Score 91.2 | Lineup K 7.64
|
6.55 | 7.16 | +0.61 | 88.4% | 78.9% | 67.1% | 54.4% | 41.9% |
Cam Schlittler
Probable | projected
|
NYY vs COL
Score 77.0 | Lineup K 6.59
|
6.00 | 6.34 | +0.34 | 83.2% | 71.2% | 57.5% | 43.9% | 31.7% |
Jacob Misiorowski
Probable | projected
|
MIL vs CHC
Score 67.4 | Lineup K 5.26
|
6.44 | 6.11 | -0.33 | 81.4% | 68.6% | 54.4% | 40.7% | 28.8% |
José Soriano
Probable | projected
|
TOR vs ATH
Score 53.3 | Lineup K 6.26
|
5.58 | 5.83 | +0.25 | 78.9% | 65.2% | 50.6% | 36.9% | 25.4% |
Freddy Peralta
Probable | projected
|
TB vs ATL
Score 62.2 | Lineup K 5.87
|
5.55 | 5.72 | +0.17 | 77.8% | 63.8% | 49.0% | 35.4% | 24.1% |
Corbin Burnes
Probable | projected
|
AZ vs KC
Score 57.3 | Lineup K 5.47
|
4.93 | 5.15 | +0.22 | 71.6% | 55.9% | 40.6% | 27.6% | 17.6% |
Sandy Alcantara
Probable | projected
|
MIA vs NYM
Score 37.2 | Lineup K 5.30
|
5.11 | 5.12 | +0.01 | 71.2% | 55.4% | 40.1% | 27.2% | 17.3% |
Tanner Bibee
Probable | projected
|
CLE vs BAL
Score 54.6 | Lineup K 5.93
|
4.60 | 5.08 | +0.48 | 70.7% | 54.8% | 39.5% | 26.6% | 16.8% |
Nick Lodolo
Probable | projected
|
CIN vs LAD
Score 47.8 | Lineup K 5.55
|
4.81 | 5.06 | +0.25 | 70.5% | 54.5% | 39.2% | 26.3% | 16.6% |
Sean Manaea
Probable | projected
|
NYM vs MIA
Score 63.3 | Lineup K 5.46
|
4.73 | 5.04 | +0.31 | 70.2% | 54.2% | 38.9% | 26.1% | 16.4% |
Casey Mize
Probable | projected
|
SD vs WSH
Score 36.9 | Lineup K 4.09
|
5.17 | 4.74 | -0.43 | 66.2% | 49.5% | 34.3% | 22.1% | 13.4% |
Dean Kremer
Probable | projected
|
MIN vs DET
Score 45.2 | Lineup K 5.11
|
4.43 | 4.65 | +0.22 | 64.9% | 48.1% | 32.9% | 21.0% | 12.5% |
Landen Roupp
Probable | projected
|
SF vs STL
Score 43.0 | Lineup K 4.69
|
4.65 | 4.64 | -0.01 | 64.8% | 47.9% | 32.8% | 20.8% | 12.4% |
Michael Wacha
Probable | projected
|
KC vs AZ
Score 32.4 | Lineup K 4.02
|
5.00 | 4.59 | -0.41 | 64.0% | 47.1% | 32.0% | 20.2% | 11.9% |
David Peterson
Probable | projected
|
CHC vs MIL
Score 40.0 | Lineup K 5.08
|
4.36 | 4.58 | +0.22 | 63.9% | 46.9% | 31.8% | 20.1% | 11.9% |
Hayden Wesneski
Probable | projected
|
HOU vs PHI
Score 40.2 | Lineup K 4.76
|
4.14 | 4.32 | +0.18 | 59.9% | 42.6% | 27.9% | 16.9% | 9.6% |
Sean Burke
Probable | projected
|
CWS vs PIT
Score 32.7 | Lineup K 4.62
|
4.07 | 4.20 | +0.13 | 57.9% | 40.5% | 26.0% | 15.5% | 8.6% |
Aj Smith-Shawver
Probable | projected
|
ATL vs TB
Score 31.5 | Lineup K 3.95
|
4.39 | 4.17 | -0.22 | 57.4% | 40.0% | 25.6% | 15.2% | 8.4% |
Brandon Young
Probable | projected
|
BAL vs CLE
Score 31.6 | Lineup K 3.80
|
3.69 | 3.67 | -0.02 | 48.5% | 31.2% | 18.4% | 9.9% | 5.0% |
Methodology
How V1 Builds The Board
Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.
Baseline
Daily Strikeout Model First
The baseline mean comes from the existing pitcher strikeout projection system, unchanged from the saved daily strikeout artifact.
Adjustment
Bounded Matchup Overlay
Public context is limited to the matchup score, lineup expected strikeouts, lineup confidence, and pitch-mix sample size. The adjustment stays modest and explainable instead of replacing the baseline model.
Probabilities
Threshold Ladder
The 4+ through 8+ probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using the artifact's deterministic negative binomial style count layer.
Later
Ready For Market Comparison
This page can expand cleanly into sportsbook line comparison later by adding line, price, fair probability, and fair-price gap columns next to the existing baseline, adjusted mean, and threshold ladder.