Projections
Daily Strikeout Props Board
A site-facing read of the saved strikeout props artifact. The page keeps the underlying daily strikeout model intact, then layers in bounded lineup and pitch-matchup context to produce an adjusted mean and threshold ladder.
Overview
Props Snapshot
The page reads directly from the saved props artifact and keeps the public view centered on adjusted strikeout expectations and threshold probabilities.
Leaderboard
Matchup-Adjusted Strikeout Board
| Pitcher | Matchup | Base K | Adj K | Delta | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dylan Cease
Probable | projected
|
TOR vs CLE
Score 69.8 | Lineup K 5.80
|
6.57 | 6.40 | -0.17 | 83.7% | 71.8% | 58.2% | 44.6% | 32.5% |
Cam Schlittler
Probable | projected
|
NYY vs LAA
Score 79.0 | Lineup K 6.60
|
5.62 | 6.10 | +0.48 | 81.3% | 68.5% | 54.3% | 40.6% | 28.7% |
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Probable | projected
|
LAD vs STL
Score 73.7 | Lineup K 5.87
|
5.89 | 5.99 | +0.10 | 80.3% | 67.2% | 52.8% | 39.1% | 27.4% |
Jacob Misiorowski
Probable | projected
|
MIL vs CHC
Score 67.6 | Lineup K 5.26
|
6.06 | 5.86 | -0.20 | 79.2% | 65.6% | 51.0% | 37.3% | 25.8% |
Joey Cantillo
Probable | projected
|
CLE vs TOR
Score 46.5 | Lineup K 4.76
|
5.56 | 5.27 | -0.29 | 73.0% | 57.6% | 42.4% | 29.2% | 18.9% |
Dean Kremer
Probable | projected
|
MIN vs DET
Score 45.0 | Lineup K 5.11
|
4.81 | 4.90 | +0.09 | 68.4% | 52.1% | 36.8% | 24.2% | 15.0% |
Trevor Rogers
Probable | projected
|
BAL vs COL
Score 58.2 | Lineup K 5.77
|
4.35 | 4.88 | +0.53 | 68.1% | 51.7% | 36.5% | 23.9% | 14.8% |
Casey Mize
Probable | projected
|
SD vs CIN
Score 46.5 | Lineup K 5.14
|
4.78 | 4.84 | +0.06 | 67.6% | 51.1% | 35.8% | 23.4% | 14.3% |
David Peterson
Probable | projected
|
CHC vs MIL
Score 40.2 | Lineup K 5.08
|
4.74 | 4.82 | +0.08 | 67.3% | 50.8% | 35.5% | 23.2% | 14.1% |
Jacob Lopez
Probable | projected
|
ATH vs TEX
Score 57.7 | Lineup K 5.63
|
4.22 | 4.70 | +0.48 | 65.6% | 48.9% | 33.7% | 21.6% | 13.0% |
Grant Holmes
Probable | projected
|
ATL vs WSH
Score 48.2 | Lineup K 5.01
|
4.34 | 4.57 | +0.23 | 63.7% | 46.8% | 31.7% | 20.0% | 11.8% |
Noah Cameron
Probable | projected
|
KC vs MIA
Score 44.6 | Lineup K 4.78
|
4.40 | 4.51 | +0.11 | 62.8% | 45.8% | 30.8% | 19.2% | 11.2% |
Eury Pérez
Probable | projected
|
MIA vs KC
Score 58.0 | Lineup K 4.80
|
4.29 | 4.50 | +0.21 | 62.7% | 45.6% | 30.6% | 19.1% | 11.1% |
Hayden Wesneski
Probable | projected
|
HOU vs CWS
Score 46.8 | Lineup K 4.36
|
4.52 | 4.45 | -0.07 | 61.9% | 44.8% | 29.8% | 18.5% | 10.7% |
Landen Roupp
Probable | projected
|
SF vs PIT
Score 43.5 | Lineup K 4.67
|
4.27 | 4.39 | +0.12 | 61.0% | 43.8% | 28.9% | 17.7% | 10.2% |
Bryce Miller
Probable | projected
|
SEA vs BOS
Score 42.9 | Lineup K 4.95
|
4.06 | 4.35 | +0.29 | 60.4% | 43.1% | 28.3% | 17.2% | 9.8% |
Davis Martin
Probable | projected
|
CWS vs HOU
Score 25.9 | Lineup K 4.16
|
4.00 | 3.98 | -0.02 | 54.2% | 36.7% | 22.8% | 13.1% | 7.0% |
Tomoyuki Sugano
Probable | projected
|
COL vs BAL
Score 21.6 | Lineup K 4.04
|
3.42 | 3.55 | +0.13 | 46.2% | 29.1% | 16.7% | 8.8% | 4.3% |
Brad Lord
Probable | projected
|
WSH vs ATL
Score 25.8 | Lineup K 3.93
|
3.38 | 3.50 | +0.12 | 45.3% | 28.3% | 16.1% | 8.4% | 4.1% |
Methodology
How V1 Builds The Board
Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.
Baseline
Daily Strikeout Model First
The baseline mean comes from the existing pitcher strikeout projection system, unchanged from the saved daily strikeout artifact.
Adjustment
Bounded Matchup Overlay
Public context is limited to the matchup score, lineup expected strikeouts, lineup confidence, and pitch-mix sample size. The adjustment stays modest and explainable instead of replacing the baseline model.
Probabilities
Threshold Ladder
The 4+ through 8+ probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using the artifact's deterministic negative binomial style count layer.
Later
Ready For Market Comparison
This page can expand cleanly into sportsbook line comparison later by adding line, price, fair probability, and fair-price gap columns next to the existing baseline, adjusted mean, and threshold ladder.